Fluoropyrimidine type, patient age, tumour sidedness and mutation status as determinants of benefit in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer treated with EGFR monoclonal antibodies: individual patient data pooled analysis of randomised trials from the ARCAD database

BACKGROUND

KRAS mutations in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) are used as predictive biomarkers to select therapy with EGFR monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). Other factors may be significant determinants of benefit.

METHODS

Individual patient data from randomised trials with a head-to-head comparison between EGFR mAb versus no EGFR mAb (chemotherapy alone or best supportive care) in mCRC, across all lines of therapy, were pooled. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared between groups. Treatment effects within the predefined KRAS biomarker subsets were estimated by adjusted hazard ratio (HRadj) and 95% confidence interval (CI). EGFR mAb efficacy was measured within the KRAS wild-type subgroup according to BRAF and NRAS mutation status. In both KRAS wild-type and mutant subgroups, additional factors that could impact EGFR mAb efficacy were explored including the type of chemotherapy, line of therapy, age, sex, tumour sidedness and site of metastasis.

RESULTS

5675 patients from 8 studies were included, all with known mCRC KRAS mutation status. OS (HRadj 0.90, 95% CI 0.84-0.98, p = 0.01) and PFS benefit (HRadj 0.73, 95% CI 0.68-0.79, p < 0.001) from EGFR mAbs was observed in the KRAS wild-type group. PFS benefit was seen in patients treated with fluorouracil (HRadj 0.75, 95% CI 0.68-0.82) but not with capecitabine-containing regimens (HRadj 1.04, 95% CI 0.86-1.26) (pinteraction = 0.002). Sidedness also interacted with EGFR mAb efficacy, with survival benefit restricted to left-sided disease (pinteraction = 0.038). PFS benefits differed according to age, with benefits greater in those under 70 (pinteraction = 0.001). The survival benefit was not demonstrated in those patients with mutations found in the KRAS, NRAS or BRAF genes. The presence of liver metastases interacted with EGFR mAb efficacy in patients with KRAS mutant mCRC (pinteraction = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

The benefit provided by EGFR mAbs in KRAS WT mCRC is associated with left-sided primary tumour location, younger patient age and absence of NRAS or BRAF mutations. Survival benefit is observed with fluorouracil but not capecitabine. Exploratory results support further research in KRAS mutant mCRC without liver metastases.

Marizomib for patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma: a randomized phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND

Standard treatment for patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma includes surgery, radiotherapy (RT) and temozolomide (TMZ) chemotherapy (TMZ/RT→TMZ). The proteasome has long been considered a promising therapeutic target because of its role as a central biological hub in tumor cells. Marizomib is a novel pan-proteasome inhibitor that crosses the blood brain barrier.

METHODS

EORTC 1709/CCTG CE.8 was a multicenter, randomized, controlled, open label phase 3 superiority trial. Key eligibility criteria included newly diagnosed glioblastoma, age > 18 years and Karnofsky performance status > 70. Patients were randomized in a 1:1 ratio. The primary objective was to compare overall survival (OS) in patients receiving marizomib in addition to TMZ/RT→TMZ with patients receiving only standard treatment in the whole population, and in the subgroup of patients with MGMT promoter-unmethylated tumors.

RESULTS

The trial was opened at 82 institutions in Europe, Canada and the US. A total of 749 patients (99.9% of planned 750) were randomized. OS was not different between the standard and the marizomib arm (median 17 vs 16.5 months; HR=1.04; p=0.64). PFS was not statistically different either (median 6.0 vs. 6.3 months; HR=0.97; p=0.67). In patients with MGMT promoter-unmethylated tumors, OS was also not different between standard therapy and marizomib (median 14.5 vs 15.1 months, HR=1.13; p=0.27). More CTCAE grade 3/4 treatment-emergent adverse events were observed in the marizomib arm than in the standard arm.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding marizomib to standard temozolomide-based radiochemotherapy resulted in more toxicity, but did not improve OS or PFS in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma.

Transverse Colon Primary Tumor Location as a Biomarker in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of CCTG/AGITG CO.17 and CO.20 Randomized Clinical Trials

PURPOSE

Sidedness is prognostic and predictive of anti-EGFR efficacy in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Transverse colon has been historically excluded from several analyses of sidedness and the optimal division between left- and right-sided colorectal cancer is unclear. We investigated transverse colon primary tumor location as a biomarker in mCRC.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Pooled analysis of CCTG/AGITG CO.17 and CO.20 trials of cetuximab in chemotherapy-refractory mCRC. Outcomes of patients with RAS/BRAF wild-type (WT) mCRC from CO.17 and KRAS WT mCRC from CO.20 were analyzed according to location.

RESULTS

A total of 553 patients were analyzed, 32 (5.8%) with cancers from the transverse, 101 (18.3%) from right, and 420 from (75.9%) left colon. Transverse mCRC failed to reach significant benefit from cetuximab versus best supportive care (BSC) for overall survival [OS; median, 5.9 vs. 2.1 months; HR, 0.63; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.28-1.42; P=0.26] and progression-free survival (PFS; median, 1.8 vs. 1.3 months; HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.26-1.28; P=0.16). Analyzing exclusively patients randomized to cetuximab, right-sided and transverse had comparable outcomes for OS (median, 5.6 vs. 5.9 months; HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.50-1.34; P=0.43) and PFS (median, 1.9 vs. 1.8 months; HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.49-1.26; P=0.31). Patients with left-sided mCRC had superior outcomes with cetuximab compared with transverse for OS (median, 9.7 vs. 5.9 months; HR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.27-0.67; P=0.0002) and PFS (median, 3.8 vs. 1.8 months; HR, 0,49; 95% CI, 0.31-0.76; P=0.001). Location was not prognostic in patients treated with BSC alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Transverse mCRC has comparable prognostic and predictive features with right-sided mCRC.

Liver Metastases and Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Efficacy in Patients With Refractory Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have limited activity in microsatellite-stable (MSS) or mismatch repair-proficient (pMMR) colorectal cancer. Recent findings suggest the efficacy of ICIs may be modulated by the presence of liver metastases (LM).

Objective

To investigate the association between the presence of LM and ICI activity in advanced MSS colorectal cancer.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this secondary analysis of the Canadian Cancer Trials Group CO26 (CCTG CO.26) randomized clinical trial, patients with treatment-refractory colorectal cancer were randomized in a 2:1 fashion to durvalumab plus tremelimumab or best supportive care alone between August 10, 2016, and June 15, 2017. The primary end point was overall survival (OS) with 80% power and 2-sided α = .10. The median follow-up was 15.2 (0.2-22.0) months. In this post hoc analysis performed from February 11 to 14, 2022, subgroups were defined based on the presence or absence of LM and study treatments.

Intervention

Durvalumab plus tremelimumab or best supportive care.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hazard ratios (HRs) and 90% CIs were calculated based on a stratified Cox proportional hazards regression model. Plasma tumor mutation burden at study entry was determined using a circulating tumor DNA assay. The primary end point of the study was OS, defined as the time from randomization to death due to any cause; secondary end points included progression-free survival (PFS) and disease control rate (DCR).

Results

Of 180 patients enrolled (median age, 65 [IQR, 36-87] years; 121 [67.2%] men; 19 [10.6%] Asian, 151 [83.9%] White, and 10 [5.6%] other race or ethnicity), LM were present in 127 (70.6%). For patients with LM, there was a higher proportion of male patients (94 of 127 [74.0%] vs 27 of 53 [50.9%]; P = .005), and the time from initial cancer diagnosis to study entry was shorter (median, 40 [range, 8-153] vs 56 [range, 14-181] months; P = .001). Plasma tumor mutation burden was significantly higher in patients with LM. Patients without LM had significantly improved PFS with durvalumab plus tremelimumab (HR, 0.54 [90% CI, 0.35-0.96]; P = .08; P = .02 for interaction). Disease control rate was 49% (90% CI, 36%-62%) in patients without LM treated with durvalumab plus tremelimumab, compared with 14% (90% CI, 6%-38%) in those with LM (odds ratio, 5.70 [90% CI, 1.46-22.25]; P = .03). On multivariable analysis, patients without LM had significantly improved OS and PFS compared with patients with LM.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this secondary analysis of the CCTG CO.26 study, the presence of LM was associated with worse outcomes for patients with advanced colorectal cancer. Patients without LM had improved PFS and higher DCR with durvalumab plus tremelimumab. Liver metastases may be associated with poor outcomes of ICI treatment in advanced colorectal cancer and should be considered in the design and interpretation of future clinical studies evaluating this therapy.

The Feasibility of Quality Assurance in the TOPGEAR International Phase 3 Clinical Trial of Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy for Gastric Cancer (an Intergroup Trial of the AGITG/TROG/NHMRC CTC/EORTC/CCTG)

PURPOSE

The TOPGEAR phase 3 trial hypothesized that adding preoperative chemoradiation therapy (CRT) to perioperative chemotherapy will improve survival in patients with gastric cancer. Owing to the complexity of gastric irradiation, a comprehensive radiation therapy quality assurance (RTQA) program was implemented. Our objective is to describe the RTQA methods and outcomes.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

RTQA was undertaken in real time before treatment for the first 5 patients randomized to CRT from each center. Once acceptable quality was achieved, RTQA was completed for one-third of subsequent cases. RTQA consisted of evaluating (1) clinical target volume and organ-at-risk contouring and (2) radiation therapy planning parameters. Protocol violations between high- (20+ patients enrolled) and low-volume centers were compared using the Fisher exact test.

RESULTS

TOPGEAR enrolled 574 patients, of whom 286 were randomized to receive preoperative CRT and 203 (71%) were included for RTQA. Of these, 67 (33%) and 136 (67%) patients were from high- and low-volume centers, respectively. The initial RTQA pass rate was 72%. In total, 28% of cases required resubmission. In total, 200 of 203 cases (99%) passed RTQA before treatment. Cases from low-volume centers required resubmission more often (44/136 [33%] vs 13/67 [18%]; P = .078). There was no change in the proportion of cases requiring resubmission over time. Most cases requiring resubmission had multiple protocol violations. At least 1 aspect of the clinical target volume had to be adjusted in all cases. Inadequate coverage of the duodenum was most common (53% major violation, 25% minor violation). For the remaining cases, the resubmission process was triggered secondary to poor contour/plan quality.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large multicenter trial, RTQA is feasible and effective in achieving high-quality treatment plans. Ongoing education should be performed to ensure consistent quality during the entire study period.

Plasma Cetuximab Concentrations Correlate With Survival in Patients With Advanced KRAS Wild Type Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

Cetuximab is a standard of care therapy for patients with RAS wild-type (WT) advanced colorectal cancer. Limited data suggest a wide variation in cetuximab plasma concentrations after standard dosing regimens. We correlated cetuximab plasma concentrations with survival and toxicity.

METHODS

The CO. 20 study randomized patients with RAS WT advanced colorectal cancer in a 1:1 ratio to cetuximab 400 mg/m2 intravenously followed by weekly maintenance of 250 mg/m2, plus brivanib 800 mg orally daily or placebo. Blood samples obtained at week 5 precetuximab treatment were analyzed by ELISA. Patients were grouped into tertiles based on plasma cetuximab concentrations. Cetuximab concentration tertiles were correlated with survival outcomes and toxicity. Patient demographic and biochemical parameters were evaluated as co-variables.

RESULTS

Week 5 plasma cetuximab concentrations were available for 591 patients (78.8%). The median overall survival (OS) was 11.4 months and 7.8 months for patients in the highest (T3) and lowest tertiles (T1) respectively. On multivariable analysis, plasma cetuximab concentration was associated with OS (HR 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53-0.83, P < .001, T3 vs. T1), and a trend towards progression-free survival (HR 0.82, 95% CI: 0.66-1.02, P = .07, T3 vs. T1). There was no association between cetuximab concentration and skin toxicity or diarrhea.

CONCLUSION

The standard cetuximab dosing regimen may not be optimal for all patients. Further pharmacokinetic studies are needed to optimize cetuximab dosing given the potential improvement in OS.

Clinical and metabolomic characterization of Brivanib-Induced hypertension in metastatic colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Trials of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) have not demonstrated dramatic benefits in advanced colorectal cancer (CRC), and this may be a function of poor patient selection. TKI-induced hypertension is reportedly a surrogate marker for treatment benefit for some tumor types. Our objective was to determine whether hypertension was associated with benefit in the context of CRC treatment, and also to gain insight on the pathogenesis of TKI-induced hypertension by monitoring associated changes in the circulating metabolome.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Clinical data were acquired from clinical trial patients with metastatic CRC randomized to cetuximab ± the TKI brivanib (N = 750). Outcomes were evaluated as a function of treatment-induced hypertension. For metabolomic studies, plasma samples were taken at baseline, as well as at 1, 4, and 12 weeks after treatment initiation. Samples were submitted to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry to identify treatment-related metabolomic changes associated with TKI-induced hypertension, compared to pre-treatment baseline. A model based on changes in metabolite concentrations was generated using orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA).

RESULTS

In the brivanib treated group, 95 patients had treatment-related hypertension within 12 weeks of initiating treatment. TKI-induced hypertension was not associated with a significantly higher response rate, nor was it associated with improved progression-free or overall survival. In metabolomic studies, 386 metabolites were identified. There were 29 metabolites that changed with treatment and distinguished patients with and without TKI-induced hypertension. The OPLS-DA model for brivanib-induced hypertension was significant and robust (R2 Y score = 0.89, Q2 Y score = 0.70, CV-ANOVA = 2.01 e-7). Notable metabolomic features previously reported in pre-eclampsia and associated with vasoconstriction were found.

CONCLUSION

TKI-induced hypertension was not associated with clinical benefit in metastatic CRC. We have identified changes in the metabolome that are associated with the development of worsening brivanib-induced hypertension that may be useful in future efforts of characterizing this toxicity.

Two-stage multivariate Mendelian randomization on multiple outcomes with mixed distributions

In clinical research, it is important to study whether certain clinical factors or exposures have causal effects on clinical and patient-reported outcomes such as toxicities, quality of life, and self-reported symptoms, which can help improve patient care. Usually, such outcomes are recorded as multiple variables with different distributions. Mendelian randomization (MR) is a commonly used technique for causal inference with the help of genetic instrumental variables to deal with observed and unobserved confounders. Nevertheless, the current methodology of MR for multiple outcomes only focuses on one outcome at a time, meaning that it does not consider the correlation structure of multiple outcomes, which may lead to a loss of statistical power. In situations with multiple outcomes of interest, especially when there are mixed correlated outcomes with different distributions, it is much more desirable to jointly analyze them with a multivariate approach. Some multivariate methods have been proposed to model mixed outcomes; however, they do not incorporate instrumental variables and cannot handle unmeasured confounders. To overcome the above challenges, we propose a two-stage multivariate Mendelian randomization method (MRMO) that can perform multivariate analysis of mixed outcomes using genetic instrumental variables. We demonstrate that our proposed MRMO algorithm can gain power over the existing univariate MR method through simulation studies and a clinical application on a randomized Phase III clinical trial study on colorectal cancer patients.

A Bayesian approach for two-stage multivariate Mendelian randomization with mixed outcomes

Many research studies have investigated the relationship between baseline factors or exposures, such as patient demographic and disease characteristics, and study outcomes such as toxicities or quality of life, but results from most of these studies may be problematic because of potential confounding effects (eg, the imbalance in baseline factors or exposures). It is important to study whether the baseline factors or exposures have causal effects on the clinical outcomes, so that clinicians can have better understanding of the diseases and develop personalized medicine. Mendelian randomization (MR) provides an efficient way to estimate the causal effects using genetic instrumental variables to handle confounders, but most of the existing studies focus on a single outcome at a time and ignores the correlation structure of multiple outcomes. Given that clinical outcomes like toxicities and quality of life are usually a mixture of different types of variables, and multiple datasets may be available for such outcomes, it may be much more beneficial to analyze them jointly instead of separately. Some well-established methods are available for building multivariate models on mixed outcomes, but they do not incorporate MR mechanism to deal with the confounders. To overcome these challenges, we propose a Bayesian-based two-stage multivariate MR method for mixed outcomes on multiple datasets, called BMRMO. Using simulation studies and clinical applications on the CO.17 and CO.20 studies, we demonstrate better performance of our approach compared to the commonly used univariate two-stage method.

Clustering on longitudinal quality-of-life measurements using growth mixture models for clinical prognosis: Implementation on CCTG/AGITG CO.20 trial

INTRODUCTION

Analyzing longitudinal cancer quality-of-life (QoL) measurements and their impact on clinical outcomes may improve our understanding of patient trajectories during systemic therapy. We applied an unsupervised growth mixture modeling (GMM) approach to identify unobserved subpopulations ("patient clusters") in the CO.20 clinical trial longitudinal QoL data. Classes were then evaluated for differences in clinico-epidemiologic characteristics and overall survival (OS).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

In CO.20, 750 chemotherapy-refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) patients were randomized to receive Brivanib+Cetuximab (n = 376, experimental arm) versus Cetuximab+Placebo (n = 374, standard arm) for 16 weeks. EORTC-QLQ-C30 QoL summary scores were calculated for each patient at seven time points, and GMM was applied to identify patient clusters (termed "classes"). Log-rank/Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted to analyze the survival performance between classes. Cox analyses were used to explore the relationship between baseline QoL, individual slope, and the quadratic terms from the GMM output with OS.

RESULTS

In univariable analysis, the linear mixed effect model (LMM) identified sex and ECOG Performance Status as strongly associated with the longitudinal QoL score (p < 0.01). The patients within each treatment arm were clustered into three distinct QoL-based classes by GMM, respectively. The three classes identified in the experimental (log-rank p-value = 0.00058) and in the control arms (p < 0.0001) each showed significantly different survival performance. The GMM's baseline, slope, and quadratic terms were each significantly associated with OS (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

GMM can be used to analyze longitudinal QoL data in cancer studies, by identifying unobserved subpopulations (patient clusters). As demonstrated by CO.20 data, these classes can have important implications, including clinical prognostication.

Circulating Tumor DNA Identifies Diverse Landscape of Acquired Resistance to Anti-Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Therapy in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

PURPOSE

Anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibodies are effective treatments for metastatic colorectal cancer. Improved understanding of acquired resistance mechanisms may facilitate circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) monitoring, anti-EGFR rechallenge, and combinatorial strategies to delay resistance.

METHODS

Patients with treatment-refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (n = 169) enrolled on the CO.26 trial had pre-anti-EGFR tissue whole-exome sequencing (WES) compared with baseline and week 8 ctDNA assessments with the GuardantOMNI assay. Acquired alterations were compared between patients with prior anti-EGFR therapy (n = 66) and those without. Anti-EGFR therapy occurred a median of 111 days before ctDNA assessment.

RESULTS

ctDNA identified 12 genes with increased mutation frequency after anti-EGFR therapy, including EGFR (P = .0007), KRAS (P = .0017), LRP1B (P = .0046), ZNF217 (P = .0086), MAP2K1 (P = .018), PIK3CG (P = .018), BRAF (P = .048), and NRAS (P = .048). Acquired mutations appeared as multiple concurrent subclonal alterations, with most showing decay over time. Significant increases in copy-gain frequency were noted in 29 genes after anti-EGFR exposure, with notable alterations including EGFR (P < .0001), SMO (P < .0001), BRAF (P < .0001), MET (P = .0002), FLT3 (P = .0002), NOTCH4 (P = .0006), ERBB2 (P = .004), and FGFR1 (P = .006). Copy gains appeared stable without decay 8 weeks later. There were 13 gene fusions noted among 11 patients, all but one of which was associated with prior anti-EGFR therapy. Polyclonal resistance was common with acquisition of ≥ 10 resistance related alterations noted in 21% of patients with previous anti-EGFR therapy compared with 5% in those without (P = .010). Although tumor mutation burden (TMB) did not differ pretreatment (P = .63), anti-EGFR exposure increased TMB (P = .028), whereas lack of anti-EGFR exposure resulted in declining TMB (P = .014).

CONCLUSION

Paired tissue and ctDNA sequencing identified multiple novel mutations, copy gains, and fusions associated with anti-EGFR therapy that frequently co-occur as subclonal alterations in the same patient.

Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy, Excision, and Observation for Early Rectal Cancer: The Phase II NEO Trial (CCTG CO.28) Primary End Point Results

PURPOSE

Organ-sparing therapy for early-stage I/IIA rectal cancer is intended to avoid functional disturbances or a permanent ostomy associated with total mesorectal excision (TME). The objective of this phase II trial was to determine the outcomes and organ-sparing rate of patients with early-stage rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by transanal excision surgery (TES).

METHODS

This phase II trial included patients with clinical T1-T3abN0 low- or mid-rectal adenocarcinoma eligible for endoscopic resection who were treated with 3 months of chemotherapy (modified folinic acid-fluorouracil-oxaliplatin 6 or capecitabine-oxaliplatin). Those with evidence of response proceeded to transanal endoscopic surgery 2-6 weeks later. The primary end point was protocol-specified organ preservation rate, defined as the proportion of patients with tumor downstaging to ypT0/T1N0/X and who avoided radical surgery.

RESULTS

Of 58 patients enrolled, all commenced chemotherapy and 56 proceeded to surgery. A total of 33/58 patients had tumor downstaging to ypT0/1N0/X on the surgery specimen, resulting in an intention-to-treat protocol-specified organ preservation rate of 57% (90% CI, 45 to 68). Of 23 remaining patients recommended for TME surgery on the basis of protocol requirements, 13 declined and elected to proceed directly to observation resulting in 79% (90% CI, 69 to 88) achieving organ preservation. The remaining 10/23 patients proceeded to recommended TME of whom seven had no histopathologic residual disease. The 1-year and 2-year locoregional relapse-free survival was, respectively, 98% (95% CI, 86 to 100) and 90% (95% CI, 58 to 98), and there were no distant recurrences or deaths. Minimal change in quality of life and rectal function scores was observed.

CONCLUSION

Three months of induction chemotherapy may successfully downstage a significant proportion of patients with early-stage rectal cancer, allowing well-tolerated organ-preserving surgery.

Early detection of treatment futility in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer

PURPOSE

Chemotherapy options for treating CRC have rapidly expanded in recent years, and few have predictive biomarkers. Oncologists are challenged with evidence-based selection of treatments, and response is evaluated retrospectively based on serial imaging beginning after 2-3 months. As a result, cumulative toxicities may appear in patients who will not benefit. Early recognition of non-benefit would reduce cumulative toxicities. Our objective was to determine treatment-related changes in the circulating metabolome corresponding to treatment futility.

METHODS

Metabolomic studies were performed on serial plasma samples from patients with CRC in a randomized controlled trial of cetuximab vs. cetuximab + brivanib (N = 188). GC-MS quantified named 94 metabolites and concentrations were evaluated at baseline, Weeks 1, 4 and 12 after treatment initiation. In a discovery cohort (N = 68), a model distinguishing changes in metabolites associated with radiographic disease progression and response was generated using OPLS-DA. A cohort of 120 patients was used for validation of the model.

RESULTS

By one week after treatment, a stable model of 21 metabolites could distinguish between progression and partial response (R2Y = 0.859; Q2Y = 0.605; P = 5e-4). In the validation cohort, patients with the biomarker had a significantly shorter OS (P < 0.0001). In a separate cohort of patients with HCC on axitinib, appearance of the biomarker also signified a shorter PFS (1.7 months vs. 9.2 months, P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

We have identified changes in the metabolome that appear within 1 week of starting treatment associated with treatment futility. The novel approach described is applicable to future efforts in developing a biomarker for early assessment of treatment efficacy.

Impact of lymphopenia on survival for elderly patients with glioblastoma: A secondary analysis of the CCTG CE.6 (EORTC 26062-22061, TROG03.01) randomized clinical trial

Background

Lymphopenia may lead to worse outcomes for glioblastoma patients. This study is a secondary analysis of the CCTG CE.6 trial evaluating the impact of chemotherapy and radiation on lymphopenia, and effects of lymphopenia on overall survival (OS).

Methods

CCTG CE.6 randomized elderly glioblastoma patients (≥ 65 years) to short-course radiation alone (RT) or short-course radiation with temozolomide (RT + TMZ). Lymphopenia (mild-moderate: grade 1–2; severe: grade 3–4) was defined per CTCAE v3.0, and measured at baseline, 1 week and 4 weeks post-RT. Preselected key factors for analysis included age, sex, ECOG, resection extent, MGMT methylation, Mini-Mental State Examination, and steroid use. Multinomial logistic regression and multivariable Cox regression models were used to identify lymphopenia-associated factors and association with survival.

Results

Five hundred and sixty-two patients were analyzed (281 RT vs 281 RT+TMZ). At baseline, both arms had similar rates of mild-moderate (21.4% vs 21.4%) and severe (3.2% vs 2.9%) lymphopenia. However, at 4 weeks post-RT, RT+TMZ was more likely to develop lymphopenia (mild-moderate: 27.9% vs 18.2%; severe: 9.3% vs 1.8%; p<0.001). Developing any lymphopenia post-RT was associated with baseline lymphopenia (P < .001). Baseline lymphopenia (hazard ratio [HR] 1.3) was associated with worse OS (HR: 1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05–1.62; P = .02), regardless of MGMT status.

Conclusions

Development of post-RT lymphopenia is associated with addition of TMZ and baseline lymphopenia and not with RT alone in patients treated with short-course radiation. However, regardless of MGMT status, only baseline lymphopenia is associated with worse OS, which may be considered as a prognostic biomarker for elderly glioblastoma patients.

Expanded Low Allele Frequency RAS and BRAF V600E Testing in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer as Predictive Biomarkers for Cetuximab in the Randomized CO.17 Trial

PURPOSE

Expanded RAS/BRAF mutations have not been assessed as predictive for single-agent cetuximab in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), and low mutant allele frequency (MAF) mutations are of unclear significance. We aimed to establish cetuximab efficacy in optimally selected patients using highly sensitive beads, emulsion, amplification, and magnetics (BEAMing) analysis, capable of detecting alterations below standard clinical assays.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

CO.17 trial compared cetuximab versus best supportive care (BSC) in RAS/BRAF-unselected mCRC. We performed RAS/BRAF analysis on microdissected tissue of 242 patients in CO.17 trial using BEAMing for KRAS/NRAS (codons 12/13/59/61/117/146) and BRAF V600E. Patients without BEAMing but with previous Sanger sequencing-detected mutations were included.

RESULTS

KRAS, NRAS, and BRAF mutations were present in 53%, 4%, and 3% of tumors, respectively. Cetuximab improved overall survival [OS; HR, 0.51; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.32-0.81; P = 0.004] and progression-free survival (PFS; HR, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.15-0.41; P < 0.0001) compared with BSC in RAS/BRAF wild-type patients. Cetuximab did not improve OS/PFS for KRAS-, NRAS-, or BRAF-mutated tumors, and tests of interaction confirmed expanded KRAS (P = 0.0002) and NRAS (P = 0.006) as predictive, while BRAF mutations were not (P = 0.089). BEAMing identified 14% more tumors as RAS mutant than Sanger sequencing, and cetuximab lacked activity in these patients. Mutations at MAF < 5% were noted in 6 of 242 patients (2%). One patient with a KRAS A59T mutation (MAF = 2%) responded to cetuximab. More NRAS than KRAS mutations were low MAF (OR, 20.50; 95% CI, 3.88-96.85; P = 0.0038).

CONCLUSIONS

We establish single-agent cetuximab efficacy in optimally selected patients and show that subclonal RAS/BRAF alterations are uncommon and remain of indeterminate significance.

Fc-gamma receptor polymorphisms, cetuximab therapy, and overall survival in the CCTG CO.20 trial of metastatic colorectal cancer

Background

Two germ line Fc‐γ receptor (FCGR) polymorphisms, rs1801274 [FCGR2A; His(H)131Arg(R)] and rs396991 [FCGR3A; Phe(F)158Val(V)], produce altered proteins through amino acid substitutions. We previously reported that the FCGR2A H/H genotype was associated with longer overall survival (OS) in cetuximab‐treated chemotherapy‐refractory patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. Here, we aimed to replicate and extend this finding in the Canadian Clinical Trials Group CO.20 trial.

Methods

After germ line DNA genotyping, polymorphic relationships with survival were assessed using log‐rank tests and hazard ratios (HR) from Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for known prognostic factors. The dominant genetic inheritance model was used for the main analysis.

Results

Of 592 wild‐type KRAS patients treated with cetuximab, those with the FCGR2A H/H genotype (n = 165, 28%) had improved OS (HR: 0.66, P < 0.001; median absolute benefit, 1.3 months) compared to those with R/‐ genotype (n = 427, 72%). Patients with H/R had intermediate results under a codominant genetic inheritance model (HR: 0.72, P = 0.003). No significant associations were found between FCGR3A genotype and OS. In an exploratory analysis, patients with the combination of FCGR2A H/H + FCGR3A F/F genotype had significantly better OS (HR: 0.33, P = 0.003; median absolute benefit, 12.5 months) than patients with the combination of double‐variant R/R + V/V genotype. Progression‐free survival results were similar to OS. Toxicity rates were not associated with either polymorphism.

Conclusions

The FCGR2A genotype was associated with efficacy but not with toxicity in wild‐type KRAS, cetuximab‐treated colorectal cancer patients. FCGR3A genotype may modulate the relationship between FCGR2A polymorphism and outcome. FCGR2A is a promising biomarker for clinical management for these patients.

Germline polymorphisms as biomarkers of tumor response in colorectal cancer patients treated with anti-EGFR monoclonal antibodies: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Studies of germline polymorphisms as predictors of tumor response to anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) monoclonal antibody agents in metastatic colorectal cancer have reported inconsistent results. We performed a systematic review of studies from 1990 to September 2015, followed by random-effects meta-analyses for polymorphisms examined in at least three studies. Of 87 studies, 40 passed the criteria for systematic review and 23 for meta-analysis. The polymorphisms suitable for meta-analysis were CCND1 (rs17852153), COX2 (rs20417), EGF (rs4444903), EGFR (rs712829, rs11543848, 3'UTR CA repeat), FCGR2A (rs1801274), FCGR3A (rs396991), IL8 (rs4073), KRAS (rs61764370) and VEGFA (rs3025039). Meta-analysis yielded nominal significance (at α=0.05) for rs4444903 and rs11543848, but showed no significant results after multiple testing correction; this was unchanged by sensitivity analyses to address subgroups, funnel-plot asymmetries, and study quality. This highlights a tendency for lack of replication in the face of initial positive results, and possibly the unsuitability of relying on tumor response as a surrogate marker in this setting.

Significance of baseline and change in quality of life scores in predicting clinical outcomes in an international phase III trial of advanced pancreatic cancer: NCIC CTG PA.3

BACKGROUND

There is insufficient information regarding the prognostic significance of baseline and change in quality of life (QoL) scores on overall survival (OS) in advanced pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

QoL was assessed prospectively using the EORTC QLQ-C30 as part of the PA.3 trial of gemcitabine + erlotinib (G + E) vs. gemcitabine + placebo (G + P). Relevant variables and QoL scores at baseline and change at 8 weeks were analyzed by Cox stepwise regression to determine predictors of OS.

RESULTS

222 of 285 patients (pts) treated with G + E and 220 of 284 pts treated with G + P completed baseline QoL assessments. In a multivariable Cox analysis combining all pts, better QoL physical functioning (PF) score independently predicted longer OS (HR 0.86; CI: 0.80-0.93), as did non-white race (HR 0.64; CI: 0.44-0.95), PS 0-1 (HR 0.65; CI: 0.50-0.85), locally advanced disease (HR 0.55; CI: 0.43-0.71) and G + E (HR 0.78; CI: 0.64-0.96). Improvement in physical function at week 8 also predicted for improved survival (HR 0.89; CI: 0.81-0.97 for 10 point increase in score, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

In addition to clinical variables, patient reported QoL scores at baseline and change from baseline to week 8 added incremental predictive information regarding survival for advanced pancreatic cancer patients.

Estimation of drug cost avoidance and pathology cost avoidance through participation in NCIC Clinical Trials Group phase III clinical trials in Canada

BACKGROUND

Cost avoidance occurs when, because of provision of a drug therapy [drug cost avoidance (dca)] or a pathology test [pathology cost avoidance (pca)] during trial participation, health care payers need not pay for standard treatments or testing. The aim of our study was to estimate the total dca and pca for Canadian patients enrolled in relevant phase iii trials conducted by the ncic Clinical Trials Group.

METHODS

Phase iii trials that had completed accrual and resulted in dca or pca were identified. The pca was calculated based on the number of patients screened and the test cost. The dca was estimated based on patients randomized, the protocol dosing regimen, drug cost, median dose intensity, and median duration of therapy. Costs are presented in Canadian dollars. No adjustment was made for inflation.

RESULTS

From 1999 to 2011, 4 trials (1479 patients) resulted in pca and 17 trials (3195 patients) resulted in dca. The total pca was estimated at $4,194,849, which included testing for KRAS ($141,058), microsatellite instability ($18,600), and 21-gene recurrence score ($4,035,191). The total dca was estimated at $27,952,512, of which targeted therapy constituted 43% (five trials). The combined pca and dca was $32,147,361.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the study period, trials conducted by the ncic Clinical Trials Group resulted in total cost avoidance (pca and dca) of approximately $7,518 per patient. Although not all trials lead to cost avoidance, such savings should be taken account when the financial impact of conducting clinical research is being considered.

Location of colon cancer (right-sided versus left-sided) as a prognostic factor and a predictor of benefit from cetuximab in NCIC CO.17

BACKGROUND

Right- and left-sided colon cancers (RC, LC) differ with respect to biology, pathology and epidemiology. Previous data suggest a mortality difference between RC and LC. We examined if primary tumour side also predicts for outcome in chemotherapy refractory, metastatic colon cancer (MCC). We also compared RC versus LC as a predictor of efficacy of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibition with cetuximab.

METHODS

Reanalyzing NCIC CO.17 trial (cetuximab versus best supportive care [BSC]), we coded the primary tumour side as RC (caecum to transverse colon) or LC (splenic flexure to rectosigmoid). The association between tumour side and baseline characteristics was assessed. Cox regression models determined factors affecting overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS).

RESULTS

Patients with RC (150/399) had more poorly differentiated, mutant KRAS, mutated PIK3CA and wild-type BRAF tumours, fewer liver and lung metastases, and shorter interval between diagnosis and study entry. Among BSC patients, tumour side was not prognostic for PFS (hazard ratios (HR) 1.07 [0.79-1.44], p = 0.67) or OS (HR 0.96 [0.70-1.31], p = 0.78). Among wild-type KRAS patients, those with LC had significantly improved PFS when treated with cetuximab compared to BSC (median 5.4 versus 1.8 months, HR 0.28 [0.18-0.45], p < 0.0001), whereas those with RC did not (median 1.9 versus 1.9 months, HR 0.73 [0.42-1.27], p = 0.26), [interaction p = 0.002].

CONCLUSION

In refractory MCC, tumour location within the colon is not prognostic, but is strongly predictive of PFS benefit from cetuximab therapy. Additional research is needed to understand the molecular differences between RC and LC and their interaction with EGFR inhibition.

The relationship between rash, tumour KRAS mutation status and clinical and quality of life outcomes in patients with advanced colorectal cancer treated with cetuximab in the NCIC CTG/AGITG CO.17

BACKGROUND

The NCIC CTG/AGITG CO.17 trial demonstrated that cetuximab monotherapy improved overall and progression-free survival (OS and PFS) in patients previously treated for advanced colorectal cancer. A strong relationship was observed between benefit from cetuximab and development of rash. In this analysis, the association of rash and benefit from cetuximab is explored and presented by KRAS mutation status.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Rash was graded by NCI CTC 2.0 criteria. Landmark analysis was performed by excluding patients who died or dropped out within 28 days and then grouping by worst grade of rash experienced by day 28. Multivariate Cox models were conducted separately for patients with KRAS wild-type (WT) tumours and KRAS mutated (MUT) tumours. CO.17 primary outcome was OS.

RESULTS

Development of grade 2 + rash on cetuximab was associated with a trend towards increased OS (HR 0.61 with 95% CI 0.36-1.02 and p = 0.06) and PFS (HR 0.68 with 95% CI 0.45-1.03 and p = 0.07) as compared to grade 0/1 rash in patients with WT tumours. In patients with WT tumours on cetuximab both grade 0/1 and grade 2 + rash were associated with increased PFS (HR 0.57 95% CI 0.38-0.86; p = 0.008; and HR 0.32 95% CI 0.21-0.49; p < 0.0001) respectively, in comparison with best supportive care (BSC). Only development of grade 2 + rash on cetuximab was associated with increased OS (HR 0.52 with 95% CI 0.34-0.80 and p = 0.003) in comparison with BSC. No significant difference was found in OS or PFS among patients on cetuximab with MUT tumours with either rash grade as compared to BSC. No consistent trend was observed for the association of severity of rash and quality of life (QoL).

CONCLUSION

As all patients with WT tumours benefitted to some extent from cetuximab regardless of the grade of rash, grade of rash was not a useful predictive marker.

Phase III randomized, placebo-controlled study of cetuximab plus brivanib alaninate versus cetuximab plus placebo in patients with metastatic, chemotherapy-refractory, wild-type K-RAS colorectal carcinoma: the NCIC Clinical Trials Group and AGITG CO.20 Trial

PURPOSE

The antiepidermal growth factor receptor monoclonal antibody cetuximab has improved survival in patients with metastatic, chemotherapy-refractory, wild-type K-RAS colorectal cancer. The addition of brivanib, a tyrosine kinase inhibitor targeting vascular endothelial growth factor receptor and fibroblast growth factor receptor, to cetuximab has shown encouraging early clinical activity.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with metastatic colorectal cancer previously treated with combination chemotherapy were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive cetuximab 400 mg/m(2) intravenous loading dose followed by weekly maintenance of 250 mg/m(2) plus either brivanib 800 mg orally daily (arm A) or placebo (arm B). The primary end point was overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

A total of 750 patients were randomly assigned (376 in arm A and 374 in arm B). Median OS in the intent-to-treat population was 8.8 months in arm A and 8.1 months in arm B (hazard ratio [HR], 0.88; 95% CI, 0.74 to 1.03; P = .12). Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 5.0 months in arm A and 3.4 months in arm B (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.84; P < .001). Partial responses observed (13.6% v 7.2%; P = .004) were higher in arm A. Incidence of any grade ≥ 3 adverse events was 78% in arm A and 53% in arm B. Fewer patients received ≥ 90% dose-intensity of both cetuximab (57% v 83%) and brivanib/placebo (48% v 87%) in arm A versus arm B, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Despite positive effects on PFS and objective response, cetuximab plus brivanib increased toxicity and did not significantly improve OS in patients with metastatic, chemotherapy-refractory, wild-type K-RAS colorectal cancer.

Innovative estimation of survival using log-normal survival modelling on ACCENT database

Background:

The ACCENT database, with individual patient data for 20 898 patients from 18 colon cancer clinical trials, was used to support Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of 3-year disease-free survival as a surrogate for 5-year overall survival. We hypothesised substantive differences in survival estimation with log-normal modelling rather than standard Kaplan–Meier or Cox approaches.

Methods:

Time to relapse, disease-free survival, and overall survival were estimated using Kaplan–Meier, Cox, and log-normal approaches for male subjects aged 60–65 years, with stage III colon cancer, treated with 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy regimens (with 5FU), or with surgery alone (without 5FU).

Results:

Absolute differences between Cox and log-normal estimates with (without) 5FU varied by end point. The log-normal model had 5.8 (6.3)% higher estimated 3-year time to relapse than the Cox model; 4.8 (5.1)% higher 3-year disease-free survival; and 3.2 (2.2)% higher 5-year overall survival. Model checking indicated greater data support for the log-normal than the Cox model, with Cox and Kaplan–Meier estimates being more similar. All three model types indicate consistent evidence of treatment benefit on both 3-year disease-free survival and 5-year overall survival; patients allocated to 5FU had 5.0–6.7% higher 3-year disease-free survival and 5.3–6.8% higher 5-year overall survival.

Conclusion:

Substantive absolute differences between estimates of 3-year disease-free survival and 5-year overall survival with log-normal and Cox models were large enough to be clinically relevant, and warrant further consideration.

Association of hypomagnesemia with inferior survival in a phase III, randomized study of cetuximab plus best supportive care versus best supportive care alone: NCIC CTG/AGITG CO.17

BACKGROUND

Cetuximab-induced hypomagnesemia has been associated with improved clinical outcomes in advanced colorectal cancer (CRC). We explored this relationship from a randomized clinical trial of cetuximab plus best supportive care (BSC) versus BSC alone in patients with pretreated advanced CRC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Day 28 hypomagnesemia grade (0 versus ≥1) and percent reduction (<20% versus ≥20%) of Mg from baseline was correlated with outcome.

RESULTS

The median percentage Mg reduction at day 28 was 10% (-42.4% to 63.0%) for cetuximab (N = 260) versus 0% (-21.1% to 25%) for BSC (N = 251) [P < 0.0001]. Grade ≥1 hypomagnesemia and ≥20% reduction from baseline at day 28 were associated with worse overall survival (OS) [hazard ratio, HR 1.61 (95% CI 1.12-2.33), P = 0.01 and 2.08 (95% CI 1.32-3.29), P = 0.002, respectively] in multivariate analysis including grade of rash (0-1 versus 2+). Dyspnea (grade ≥3) was more common in patients with ≥20% versus < 20% Mg reduction (68% versus 45%; P = 0.02) and grade 3/4 anorexia were higher in patients with grade ≥1 hypomagnesemia (81% versus 63%; P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to prior reports, cetuximab-induced hypomagnesemia was associated with poor OS, even after adjustment for grade of rash.

Comorbidity, age and overall survival in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer - results from NCIC CTG PA.3: a phase III trial of gemcitabine plus erlotinib or placebo

BACKGROUND

The effect of comorbidity, age and performance status (PS) on treatment of advanced pancreatic cancer is poorly understood. We examined these factors as predictors of outcome in advanced pancreatic cancer patients treated with gemcitabine +/- erlotinib.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Comorbidity was evaluated by two physicians using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and correlated with clinical outcome data from the NCIC Clinical Trials Group (NCIC CTG) PA.3 clinical trial.

RESULTS

Five hundred and sixty-nine patients were included; 47% were aged ≥ 65 years old, 36% had comorbidity (CCI>0). In multivariate analysis, neither age (p=0.22) nor comorbidity (p=0.21) was associated with overall survival. The baseline presence of better PS and lower pain intensity scores was associated with better overall survival (p < 0.0001 and p=0.01, respectively). An improvement in survival with the addition of erlotinib therapy was seen in patients age < 65 (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.73, p=0.01) or in the presence of comorbidity (adjusted HR 0.72, p=0.03). However, neither age nor CCI score was predictive of erlotinib benefit after test for interaction. Patients treated with gemcitabine plus erlotinib who were ≥ 65 years of age or those with comorbidity had a higher rate of infections ≥ grade 3.

CONCLUSION

Low baseline pain intensity and better PS were associated with improved overall survival, while age and comorbidity were not independent prognostic factors for patients treated with gemcitabine-based therapy.

Association of KRAS p.G13D mutation with outcome in patients with chemotherapy-refractory metastatic colorectal cancer treated with cetuximab

CONTEXT

Patients with metastatic colorectal cancer who have KRAS codon 12- or KRAS codon 13-mutated tumors are presently excluded from treatment with the anti-epidermal growth factor receptor monoclonal antibody cetuximab.

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that KRAS codon 13 mutations are associated with a better outcome after treatment with cetuximab than observed with other KRAS mutations.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

We studied the association between KRAS mutation status (p.G13D vs other KRAS mutations) and response and survival in a pooled data set of 579 patients with chemotherapy-refractory colorectal cancer treated with cetuximab between 2001 and 2008. Patients were included in the CO.17, BOND, MABEL, EMR202600, EVEREST, BABEL, or SALVAGE clinical trials or received off-study treatment. Univariate and multivariate analyses, adjusting for possible prognostic factors and data set, were performed. The effect of the different mutations was studied in vitro by constructing isogenic cell lines with wild-type KRAS, p.G12V, or p.G13D mutant alleles and treating them with cetuximab.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main efficacy end point was overall survival. Secondary efficacy end points were response rate and progression-free survival.

RESULTS

In comparison with patients with other KRAS-mutated tumors, patients with p.G13D-mutated tumors (n = 32) treated with cetuximab had longer overall survival (median, 7.6 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 5.7-20.5] months vs 5.7 [95% CI, 4.9-6.8] months; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31-0.81; P = .005) and longer progression-free survival (median, 4.0 [95% CI, 1.9-6.2] months vs 1.9 [95% CI, 1.8-2.8] months; adjusted HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.32-0.81; P = .004). There was a significant interaction between KRAS mutation status (p.G13D vs other KRAS mutations) and overall survival benefit with cetuximab treatment (adjusted HR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.14-0.67; P = .003). In vitro and mouse model analysis showed that although p.G12V-mutated colorectal cells were insensitive to cetuximab, p.G13D-mutated cells were sensitive, as were KRAS wild-type cells.

CONCLUSIONS

In this analysis, use of cetuximab was associated with longer overall and progression-free survival among patients with chemotherapy-refractory colorectal cancer with p.G13D-mutated tumors than with other KRAS-mutated tumors. Evaluation of cetuximab therapy in these tumors in prospective randomized trials may be warranted.

Health-related quality of life in patients with advanced colorectal cancer treated with cetuximab: overall and KRAS-specific results of the NCIC CTG and AGITG CO.17 Trial

PURPOSE

National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group CO.17 demonstrated the antiepidermal growth factor receptor (anti-EGFR) monoclonal antibody cetuximab improves overall and progression-free survival in patients with advanced, chemotherapy-refractory colorectal cancer (CRC), particularly in patients with wild-type KRAS tumors. This article reports the health-related quality-of-life (HRQL) outcomes from CO.17.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients (N = 572) with pretreated EGFR-detectable advanced CRC were randomly assigned to cetuximab and best supportive care (BSC) or to BSC alone. HRQL primary end points assessed by the EORTC QLQ-C30 were physical function (PF) and global health status (GHS); mean changes from baseline to 8 and 16 weeks were assessed. Post hoc analysis by KRAS mutation status was performed.

RESULTS

Questionnaire compliance was 94% at baseline, but it declined differentially (67% v 47% for cetuximab v BSC at 16 weeks). PF change scores were -3.9 for cetuximab and -8.6 for BSC (P = .046) at 8 weeks and were -5.9 and -12.5 for cetuximab and BSC, respectively, (P = .027) at 16 weeks. GHS change scores were -0.5 and -7.1 (P = .008) at 8 weeks and were -3.6 and -15.2 (P = .008) at 16 weeks for cetuximab and BSC, respectively. In patients who had tumors with wild-type KRAS status, cetuximab resulted in less PF deterioration at 8 weeks (-0.7 v -7.2; P = .11) and 16 weeks (-3.4 v -13.8; P = .008) compared with BSC. Patients with wild-type status who received cetuximab experienced improved GHS at 8 weeks, whereas patients who received BSC alone deteriorated (3.2 v -7.7; P = .002). Cetuximab preserved GHS at 16 weeks (-0.2 v -18.1; P < .001). No significant differences were noted between study arms for patients with mutated KRAS tumors.

CONCLUSION

Cetuximab offers important HRQL and survival benefits for pretreated patients with advanced, wild-type KRAS CRC.

K-ras mutations and benefit from cetuximab in advanced colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Treatment with cetuximab, a monoclonal antibody directed against the epidermal growth factor receptor, improves overall and progression-free survival and preserves the quality of life in patients with colorectal cancer that has not responded to chemotherapy. The mutation status of the K-ras gene in the tumor may affect the response to cetuximab and have treatment-independent prognostic value.

METHODS

We analyzed tumor samples, obtained from 394 of 572 patients (68.9%) with colorectal cancer who were randomly assigned to receive cetuximab plus best supportive care or best supportive care alone, to look for activating mutations in exon 2 of the K-ras gene. We assessed whether the mutation status of the K-ras gene was associated with survival in the cetuximab and supportive-care groups.

RESULTS

Of the tumors evaluated for K-ras mutations, 42.3% had at least one mutation in exon 2 of the gene. The effectiveness of cetuximab was significantly associated with K-ras mutation status (P=0.01 and P<0.001 for the interaction of K-ras mutation status with overall survival and progression-free survival, respectively). In patients with wild-type K-ras tumors, treatment with cetuximab as compared with supportive care alone significantly improved overall survival (median, 9.5 vs. 4.8 months; hazard ratio for death, 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41 to 0.74; P<0.001) and progression-free survival (median, 3.7 months vs. 1.9 months; hazard ratio for progression or death, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.54; P<0.001). Among patients with mutated K-ras tumors, there was no significant difference between those who were treated with cetuximab and those who received supportive care alone with respect to overall survival (hazard ratio, 0.98; P=0.89) or progression-free survival (hazard ratio, 0.99; P=0.96). In the group of patients receiving best supportive care alone, the mutation status of the K-ras gene was not significantly associated with overall survival (hazard ratio for death, 1.01; P=0.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with a colorectal tumor bearing mutated K-ras did not benefit from cetuximab, whereas patients with a tumor bearing wild-type K-ras did benefit from cetuximab. The mutation status of the K-ras gene had no influence on survival among patients treated with best supportive care alone. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00079066.)

Cetuximab for the treatment of colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Cetuximab, an IgG1 chimeric monoclonal antibody against epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), has activity against colorectal cancers that express EGFR.

METHODS

From December 2003 to August 2005, 572 patients who had colorectal cancer expressing immunohistochemically detectable EGFR and who had been previously treated with a fluoropyrimidine, irinotecan, and oxaliplatin or had contraindications to treatment with these drugs underwent randomization to an initial dose of 400 mg of cetuximab per square meter of body-surface area followed by a weekly infusion of 250 mg per square meter plus best supportive care (287 patients) or best supportive care alone (285 patients). The primary end point was overall survival.

RESULTS

In comparison with best supportive care alone, cetuximab treatment was associated with a significant improvement in overall survival (hazard ratio for death, 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64 to 0.92; P=0.005) and in progression-free survival (hazard ratio for disease progression or death, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.80; P<0.001). These benefits were robust after adjustment in a multivariable Cox proportional-hazards model. The median overall survival was 6.1 months in the cetuximab group and 4.6 months in the group assigned to supportive care alone. Partial responses occurred in 23 patients (8.0%) in the cetuximab group but in none in the group assigned to supportive care alone (P<0.001); the disease was stable in an additional 31.4% of patients assigned to cetuximab and in 10.9% of patients assigned to supportive care alone (P<0.001). Quality of life was better preserved in the cetuximab group, with less deterioration in physical function and global health status scores (both P<0.05). Cetuximab treatment was associated with a characteristic rash; a rash of grade 2 or higher was strongly associated with improved survival (hazard ratio for death, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.50; P<0.001). The incidence of any adverse event of grade 3 or higher was 78.5% in the cetuximab group and 59.1% in the group assigned to supportive care alone (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Cetuximab improves overall survival and progression-free survival and preserves quality-of-life measures in patients with colorectal cancer in whom other treatments have failed. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00079066 [ClinicalTrials.gov].).

Reductions of circulating matrix metalloproteinase 2 and vascular endothelial growth factor levels after treatment with pegvisomant in subjects with acromegaly

BACKGROUND

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is involved in activation of the matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) system; the latter is implicated in atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease. Patients with acromegaly have reduced life expectancy primarily due to cardiac disease.

AIM

This study assessed plasma MMPs and VEGF levels in patients with active acromegaly (IGF-I > 130% upper limit of normal), and on treatment with pegvisomant.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Twenty patients [nine female, mean age 56.1 +/- 13.8 yr (mean +/- sd)] were studied at baseline and on pegvisomant therapy and compared with data from 25 healthy volunteers (12 female; 56.6 +/- 14.2 yr). Plasma MMP-2, MMP-9, and VEGF levels were measured.

RESULTS

Serum IGF-I fell from a baseline (mean +/- sd) level of 620.1 +/- 209.3 ng/ml to 237.5 +/- 118.5 ng/ml on pegvisomant (doses 10-60 mg; P < 0.001). MMP-2 levels at baseline were significantly higher in patients compared with healthy controls (380.7 +/- 204.8 vs. 207.4 +/- 62.6 ng/ml; P < 0.001), but with treatment a significant reduction in MMP-2 [380.7 +/- 204.8 vs. 203.0 +/- 77.4 ng/ml; P < 0.001] and VEGF (283.4 +/- 233.6 vs. 229.1 +/- 157.4 pg/ml; P = 0.008) was noted. There was no significant difference in MMP-9 levels between patients and controls at baseline (797.5 +/- 142.1 vs. 788.3 +/- 218.0 ng/ml; P = 0.87) or between baseline and posttreatment levels (797.5 +/- 142.1 vs. 780.0 +/- 214 ng/ml; P = 0.76).

CONCLUSIONS

Our novel data demonstrate that treatment of acromegaly with pegvisomant leads to reductions in MMP-2 and VEGF concentrations. Further studies are required to determine the significance of these findings with relation to cardiac disease.

Functional Status and Health-Related Quality of Life During Inpatient Stroke Rehabilitation

OBJECTIVE

To examine changes in functional status and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) during inpatient stroke rehabilitation to examine the associations between changes in the two measures.

DESIGN

Two independently collected databases were combined for a retrospective analysis. One contained the objectively assessed FIM score; the other contained the subjectively assessed Medical Outcomes Study 36-item short form (SF-36). Admission and discharge scores were compared using paired-samples t tests. Associations between the FIM outcomes and the SF-36 outcomes were assessed by means of Pearson's product-moment correlations.

RESULTS

One hundred sixteen patients were represented in both databases. Mean age was 71.4 yrs; 59 (51.1%) were female. All FIM scores, four of eight SF-36 domains, and one summary component score showed statistically significant improvement during the course of rehabilitation. Changes in SF-36 were not strongly associated with changes in FIM score, with only 6 of 90 correlations attaining statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

Functional status and HRQOL improved considerably over the course of rehabilitation. However, there was poor association between the two outcomes. Both instruments offer insights into outcomes of inpatient rehabilitation, but they are complementary rather than overlapping.

Effects of hormone replacement therapy type and route of administration on plasma matrix metalloproteinases and their tissue inhibitors in postmenopausal women

BACKGROUND

Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are implicated in numerous disease states including cardiovascular disease and cancer. Because recent studies have shown a detrimental effect of hormone replacement therapy on cardiovascular disease and breast cancer, we investigated whether there are any differences in the concentrations of MMPs and their tissue inhibitors (TIMPs) in women receiving various forms of postmenopausal therapy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A total of 195 healthy postmenopausal women were assessed: 46 were taking tibolone, 47 were taking transdermal estradiol, 46 were taking conjugated equine estrogens (CEE), and 56 were not taking any menopausal therapy (CTR). Plasma levels of MMP-2 and -9 and TIMP-1 and TIMP-2 were measured by ELISA methods.

RESULTS

MMP-9 levels were significantly higher in the CEE group in comparison with healthy women not receiving menopausal therapy (P < 0.05). In contrast, MMP-9 levels in the tibolone group were significantly lower than in any other group (P < 0.01, compared with transdermal estradiol and CTR, and P < 0.001, compared with CEE). MMP-9 to TIMP-1 ratio was also significantly higher in the CEE, compared with CTR (P < 0.05), and lower in the tibolone group (P < 0.01, compared with all groups). MMP-2 levels were higher in the CEE group, compared with healthy women not receiving any menopausal therapy, and women taking tibolone (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates differential effects of various forms of postmenopausal therapy on serum levels of MMP-9 and MMP-2. It remains to be established whether these differences might be associated with differences in risks of cardiovascular disease and cancer in these women.

Investigation of ground level and remote-sensed data for habitat classification and prediction of survival of Ixodes scapularis in habitats of southeastern Canada

In southeastern Canada, most populations of Ixodes scapularis Say, the Lyme disease vector, occur in Carolinian forests. Climate change projections suggest a northward range expansion of I. scapularis this century, but it is unclear whether more northerly habitats are suitable for I. scapularis survival. In this study, we assessed the suitability of woodlands of the Lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Plain region for I. scapularis by comparing tick egg survival in four different woodlands. Woodlands where I. scapularis are established, and sand dune where I. scapularis do not survive, served as positive and negative control sites, respectively. At two woodland sites, egg survival was the same as at the positive control site, but at two of the sites survival was significantly less than either the positive control site, or one of the other test sites. Egg survival in all woodland sites was significantly higher than in the sand dune site. Ground level habitat classification discriminated among woodlands in which tick survival differed. The likelihood that I. scapularis populations could persist in the different habitats, as deduced using a population model of I. scapularis, was significantly associated with variations in Landsat 7 ETM+ data (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and Tasselled Cap indices). The NDVI index predicted habitat suitability at Long Point, Ontario, with high sensitivity but moderate specificity. Our study suggests that I. scapularis populations could establish in more northerly woodland types than those in which they currently exist. Suitable habitats may be detected by ground-level habitat classification, and remote-sensed data may assist this process.

Increased circulating levels of matrix metalloproteinase-2 and -9 in women with the polycystic ovary syndrome

INTRODUCTION

Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) have been implicated in various pathological processes including inflammatory response, cardiovascular disease, and recently also in ovarian dysfunction. Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrinopathy in women of reproductive age and is characterized by chronic anovulation, insulin resistance, and increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. Circulating levels of MMPs and their tissue inhibitors (TIMPs) so far have not been assessed in the PCOS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Serum levels of MMP-2, MMP-9, TIMP-1, and TIMP-2 were measured in 23 women with PCOS [age (mean +/- sd), 30.5 +/- 6.7 yr; body mass index, 35.8 +/- 7.5 kg/m2] and 22 healthy, regularly menstruating women (age, 29.4 +/- 5.6; body mass index, 31.7 +/- 9.2 kg/m2).

RESULTS

Women with PCOS had significantly higher concentrations of MMP-2 (999.8 +/- 155 vs. 521.8 +/- 242 ng/ml; P < 0.001), MMP-9 (592.4 +/- 279 vs. 345 +/- 309; P = 0.007), and TIMP-1 levels (823.8 +/- 145 vs. 692 +/- 210 ng/ml; P = 0.02) than control healthy women. There was no difference in TIMP-2 levels (47.3 +/- 30 vs. 44.4 +/- 39.7 ng/ml; P = 0.21) between women with PCOS and controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Obese women with PCOS have elevated serum concentrations of MMP-2 and -9. It might be hypothesized that elevated MMP concentrations may be related to increased cardiovascular risk in PCOS and/or menstrual irregularities associated with this syndrome.

Investigation of ground level and remote-sensed data for habitat classification and prediction of survival of Ixodes scapularis in habitats of southeastern Canada

In southeastern Canada, most populations of Ixodes scapularis Say, the Lyme disease vector, occur in Carolinian forests. Climate change projections suggest a northward range expansion of I. scapularis this century, but it is unclear whether more northerly habitats are suitable for I. scapularis survival. In this study, we assessed the suitability of woodlands of the Lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Plain region for I. scapularis by comparing tick egg survival in four different woodlands. Woodlands where I. scapularis are established, and sand dune where I. scapularis do not survive, served as positive and negative control sites, respectively. At two woodland sites, egg survival was the same as at the positive control site, but at two of the sites survival was significantly less than either the positive control site, or one of the other test sites. Egg survival in all woodland sites was significantly higher than in the sand dune site. Ground level habitat classification discriminated among woodlands in which tick survival differed. The likelihood that I. scapularis populations could persist in the different habitats, as deduced using a population model of I. scapularis, was significantly associated with variations in Landsat 7 ETM+ data (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and Tasselled Cap indices). The NDVI index predicted habitat suitability at Long Point, Ontario, with high sensitivity but moderate specificity. Our study suggests that I. scapularis populations could establish in more northerly woodland types than those in which they currently exist. Suitable habitats may be detected by ground-level habitat classification, and remote-sensed data may assist this process.

A dynamic population model to investigate effects of climate on geographic range and seasonality of the tick Ixodes scapularis

A dynamic population model of Ixodes scapularis, the vector of a number of tick-borne zoonoses in North America, was developed to simulate effects of temperature on tick survival and seasonality. Tick development rates were modelled as temperature-dependent time delays, calculated using mean monthly normal temperature data from specific meteorological stations. Temperature also influenced host-finding success in the model. Using data from stations near endemic populations of I. scapularis, the model reached repeatable, stable, cyclical equilibria with seasonal activity of different instars being very close to that observed in the field. In simulations run using data from meteorological stations in central and eastern Canada, the maximum equilibrium numbers of ticks declined the further north was the station location, and simulated populations died out at more northerly stations. Tick die-out at northern latitudes was due to a steady increase in mortality of all life stages with decreasing temperature rather than a specific threshold event in phenology of one life stage. By linear regression we investigated mean annual numbers of degree-days >0 degrees C (DD>0 degrees C) as a readily mapped index of the temperature conditions at the meteorological stations providing temperature data for the model. Maximum numbers of ticks at equilibrium were strongly associated with the mean DD>0 degrees C (r2>0.96, P<0.001), when the Province of origin of the meteorological station was accounted for (Quebec>Ontario, beta=103, P<0.001). The intercepts of the regression models provided theoretical limits for the establishment of I. scapularis in Canada. Maps of these limits suggested that the range of southeast Canada where temperature conditions are currently suitable for the tick, is much wider than the existing distribution of I. scapularis, implying that there is potential for spread. Future applications of the model in investigating climate change effects on I. scapularis are discussed.

A serological survey of ruminant livestock in Kazakhstan during post-Soviet transitions in farming and disease control

The results of a serological survey of livestock in Kazakhstan, carried out in 1997–1998, are reported. Serum samples from 958 animals (cattle, sheep and goats) were tested for antibodies to foot and mouth disease (FMD), bluetongue (BT), epizootic haemorrhagic disease (EHD), rinderpest (RP) and peste des petits ruminants (PPR) viruses, and to Brucella spp. We also investigated the vaccination status of livestock and related this to changes in veterinary provision since independence in 1991. For the 2 diseases under official surveillance (FMD and brucellosis) our results were similar to official data, although we found significantly higher brucellosis levels in 2 districts and widespread ignorance about FMD vaccination status. The seroprevalence for BT virus was 23%, and seropositive animals were widespread suggesting endemicity, despite the disease not having being previously reported. We found a few seropositives for EHDV and PPRV, which may suggest that these diseases are also present in Kazakhstan. An hierarchical model showed that seroprevalence to FMD and BT viruses were clustered at the farm/village level, rather than at a larger spatial scale. This was unexpected for FMD, which is subject to vaccination policies which vary at the raion (county) level.

Investigation of relationships between temperature and developmental rates of tick Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in the laboratory and field

Relationships between temperature and preoviposition, preeclosion, and premolt developmental periods for the tick Ixodes scapularis Say were investigated by holding field-collected ticks in the laboratory at temperatures of 0 to 32 degrees C at constant daylength. The duration of these developmental periods decreased significantly with increasing temperature. Host of origin, prior storage at 4 degrees C, and season of collection of the ticks were also significantly associated with variations in the duration of the preoviposition period. For each developmental stage, the effect of temperature on development rate was best described as a power relationship. Laboratory-derived relationships were used to predict dates for molting, oviposition, and eclosion of engorged larvae and nymphs, engorged adult females and egg masses, respectively, placed in the field during 1989-1992. Predicted dates for oviposition by adult females, eclosion of eggs, and molting of engorged larvae were within 2 wk of the observed dates, and field-observed seasonal activity of questing larvae and nymphs also was predicted well by laboratory data. Molting of engorged nymphs and seasonal activity of questing adult ticks were, however, poorly predicted. Our findings suggest that duration of development in the field, of larvae from engorged adult females, and of nymphs from engorged larvae, may be explained largely by temperature effects alone, whereas emergence of adult I. scapularis from engorged nymphs may depend on temperature-independent diapause phenomena. The significance of these findings for understanding current and future distributions of I. scapularis, and of the pathogens it transmits, is discussed.

Growth hormone replacement decreases plasma levels of matrix metalloproteinases (2 and 9) and vascular endothelial growth factor in growth hormone-deficient individuals

BACKGROUND

Matrix metalloproteinases (MMP) are implicated in cardiovascular disease. Growth hormone (GH) deficiency is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. We assessed whether GH replacement, in GH-deficient adults, has any effect on plasma levels of MMP-2 and MMP-9 and on vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), known to activate MMPs.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study comprised 66 GH-deficient adults, 37.8+/-14.7 years of age (37 female). Plasma MMP-2 and MMP-9, VEGF, and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) were measured at baseline (V1), at 12 months (V2), and at 24 months of GH treatment (V3). IGF-1 levels rose under GH replacement (mean+/-SD): V1, 151.6+/-91.9 microg/mL; V2, 270.2+/-114.8 microg/mL; and V3, 266.2+/-109.8 (V1 versus V2; P<0.001: V2 versus V3; P=0.76). MMP-9 exhibited the most pronounced and sustained decline from 1248.0+/-651.1 ng/mL at V1, 949.2+/-457.7 ng/mL at V2, and 760.8+/-386.1 ng/mL at V3 (P<0.001 at all time points). A similar pattern was detected for VEGF levels: 358.5+/-209.0 pg/mL at V1, 310.6+/-225.7 pg/mL at V2 (P<0.001), and 283.7+/-202.7 pg/mL at V3 (V2 versus V3; P=0.005). MMP-2 demonstrated a significant decline initially from V1 to V2 (1134.4+/-217.8 ng/mL versus 1074.5+/-203.0 ng/mL, respectively; P=0.031), reaching a plateau at V3 (1072.3+/-220.2 ng/mL) (V2 versus V3; P=0.93). A negative relation existed between MMP-9 versus IGF-1 and MMP-2 versus IGF-1 (P<0.001 and P=0.007, respectively) as well as between VEGF and IGF-1 (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

These changes in MMPs and VEGF may contribute to the anticipated reduction in vascular mortality in hypopituitary adults receiving GH replacement.

A longitudinal study of a natural lice infestation in growing cattle over two winter periods

A group of 61 cattle which were naturally infested with lice was followed over two winter periods. Data were collected on the number of lice found at various body sites over this period. Summary statistics were produced and due to the repeated measured and hierarchical structure of the data, multi-level analysis was used to model the population dynamics of Bovicola bovis and assess the influence of the various hierarchical levels. A four level Poisson model was produced-level one, the individual number of lice at each parting; level two, the body site examined (shoulder, midline or rump); level three, the time of the inspection and level four, the animal. Seasonal fluctuation in lice numbers was modelled using a cosine function transformation of time. A seasonal pattern was seen in both years with lice counts higher in the first than the second year. The midline area was the most sensitive to detection of B. bovis. Variance contributed by the individual animal was less than that contributed by the body site examined and the time of the inspection. The model suggested that lice numbers within the shoulder and rump sites were near random following a Poisson distribution, but aggregation of lice occurred at the midline site with the distribution between animals following a Negative Binomial Pattern. The midline site was the most sensitive site for detecting B. bovis. Infestation numbers were higher in the first winter when cattle were younger. In the second winter, there was no difference in lice numbers between cattle exposed to infection for the first or second time.

Rosacea: a cutaneous marker of Helicobacter pylori infection? Results of a pilot study

Given the long purported anecdotal association between rosacea and gastrointestinal disease, the discovery that Helicobacter pylori causes gastritis and duodenal ulcer disease has led to a hypothesized role for this organism in the aetiology of rosacea. We conducted a case-series study of 49 patients to assess the potential association between severity of rosacea and direct and serological evidence of H. pylori infection. Patients were classified by severity into non-inflammatory erythematotelangiectatic or inflammatory/papulopustular rosacea and were tested for current H. pylori infection and evidence of previous exposure. Positive 13C-urea breath test and ELISA tests were more likely to be observed in patients with inflammatory rosacea, although not statistically significantly so (OR = 3.0, p = 0.15 and OR = 2.9, p = 0.16, respectively). However, the proportion of patients who tested positive in both assays (versus negative in at least one) was even higher in the inflammatory rosacea group and neared statistical significance (OR = 4.5, p = 0.06). This pilot study provides sufficient evidence suggestive of a positive association between the severity of rosacea and the presence of H. pylori to warrant further research.

Plasma total homocysteine concentrations in adults with growth hormone (GH) deficiency: effects of GH replacement

Growth hormone (GH) deficiency is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. GH treatment improves the profile of many cardiovascular risk markers in individuals with GH deficiency (GHD). The aim of the present was to assess whether GH replacement may decrease plasma total homocysteine, an independent cardiovascular risk factor, thus potentially contributing to benefits of GH replacement in adult subjects with GHD. Twenty-five patients (17 female, 8 male), mean age 39-years, with GHD were studied. GH status had been determined by an insulin tolerance test and/or arginine stimulation test. After an overnight fast, plasma insulin, IGF-1, total homocysteine (Hcy), free thyroxine (FT4), creatinine, vitamin B12, and folate were measured at baseline (V1), 3 months (V2) and then at 6 months (V3) on GH treatment. The data were analysed by hierarchical statistical models, univariate and multivariate correlation. GH treatment resulted in an increase in IGF-1 (p<0.001, p<0.001), and insulin (p=0.068, p<0.001), at each visit, respectively. Hcy levels increased from V1 to V2 (7.7+/-0.53 to 9.15+/-0.45 micromol/L; p=0.051), but this was followed by a decline at V3 (to 8.8+/-0.59), so that the overall change of Hcy levels from V1 to V3, once individuals had achieved 'adequate' GH replacement, was no longer significantly different (p=0.090). When separated by gender, at 6 months (V3) there was a small, but significant increase in Hcy in men (p=0.028), but not in women (p=0.58). There was no significant change in B12, folate, free T4 or creatinine levels. Univariate analysis revealed that only B12 and folate showed significant negative relationships with Hcy (B12: parameter= -0.013, p<0.001; folate: parameter=-1.31, p<0.001), but not between Hcy and IGF-1 (p=0.18). In a multiple variable model, both B12 and folate remained significantly negatively associated with plasma total homocysteine (p=0.018; p<0.001, respectively). In this observational study normalisation of IGF-1 levels in adult subjects with growth hormone deficiency was not associated with a fall in total homocysteine. Before firm conclusions can be drawn about the contribution of changes in plasma homocysteine concentrations to cardiovascular prognosis in adult GHD patients receiving GH replacement, further controlled studies are required.

First evidence of bluetongue virus in Kazakhstan

We report the results of the first serological survey for bluetongue virus in Kazakhstan. We analysed blood samples collected from 958 livestock and 513 wild saiga antelopes over a large area of the country, and found 23.2% seroprevalence in livestock and 0% in saigas. Seroprevalence in livestock did not vary by species, but increased significantly with age. There was no evidence for variation in seroprevalence at the regional level, but there was significant clustering at the farm level. Bluetongue has never before been reported in Kazakhstan, yet our results suggest that it may be endemic. We found seropositive animals at the furthest known northern limits of the bluetongue virus in this region of the world. Recorded vectors are not known to be present in Kazakhstan, so a novel vector is likely to be operating. The lack of evidence for bluetongue virus in saigas is unexpected and suggests a need for further investigation.

A longitudinal study of a natural lice infestation in growing cattle over two winter periods

A group of 61 cattle which were naturally infested with lice was followed over two winter periods. Data were collected on the number of lice found at various body sites over this period. Summary statistics were produced and due to the repeated measured and hierarchical structure of the data, multi-level analysis was used to model the population dynamics of Bovicola bovis and assess the influence of the various hierarchical levels. A four level Poisson model was produced--level one, the individual number of lice at each parting; level two, the body site examined (shoulder, midline or rump); level three, the time of the inspection and level four, the animal. Seasonal fluctuation in lice numbers was modelled using a cosine function transformation of time. A seasonal pattern was seen in both year's with lice counts higher in the first than the second year. The midline area was the most sensitive to detection of B. bovis. Variance contributed by the individual animal was less than that contributed by the body site examined and the time of the inspection. The model suggested that lice numbers within the shoulder and rump sites were near random following a Poisson distribution, but aggregation of lice occurred at the midline site with the distribution between animals following a Negative Binomial Pattern. The midline site was the most sensitive site for detecting B. bovis. Infestation numbers were higher in the first winter when cattle were younger. In the second winter, there was no difference in lice numbers between cattle exposed to infection for the first or second time.

The seriously ill hospitalized patient: preferred role in end-of-life decision making?

PURPOSE

The objective of this study was to further our understanding of the decision-making process near the end of life. Specifically, we ascertained the seriously ill patients' preferred role in the decision-making process, what factors were associated with this role, and how this stated preference related to physicians' perception of preferred role.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Prospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with end-stage congestive heart disease, chronic pulmonary disease, cirrhosis, or metastatic cancer. Eligible patients were interviewed to ascertain their personal views on end-of-life decision making, desired role, and level of symptoms experienced.

RESULTS

A total of 135 patients were enrolled in this study. The majority of patients (103, 76%) had thought about end-of-life issues although only 48 (36%) had discussed them with their doctor in the hospital. With respect to preferred role in decision making, in the scenario of a competent patient, 14 (10%) preferred to leave all decisions to the doctor, 12 (9%) preferred that the doctor make the final decision after considering their opinion, 43 (32%) preferred that the doctor shared responsibility with them to make the decision, 32 (24%) patients preferred to make the final decision after considering the doctor's opinion, 21 (16%) preferred to make the treatment decision alone, and 13 (10%) did not answer. Physicians were not able to accurately predict patient's preferred role nor could the variability in patient choice be accounted for by demographic or symptom covariates.

CONCLUSION

Seriously ill hospitalized patients desire to discuss end-of-life issues with their physicians but their preferred role in decision making is variable and difficult to predict.

Differential effects of GH replacement on the components of the leptin system in GH-deficient individuals

GH therapy is associated with a reduction in fat mass and an increase in lean mass in subjects with GH deficiency (GHD). Leptin, like GH, plays an important role in the regulation of body composition. GH treatment has been shown to reduce serum leptin; however, the physiological interactions between the leptin system (free leptin, bound leptin, and soluble leptin receptor) and the GH/IGF-I system largely remain unknown. Twenty-five patients with childhood (n = 10) and adult-onset (n = 15) GHD were studied. GH status had previously been determined using an insulin tolerance test and/or an arginine stimulation test. The following parameters were recorded at baseline (V1) and then after 3 months (V2) and 6 months (V3) on GH treatment: fat mass, body mass index (BMI), and waist/hip ratio (WHR); blood samples were taken after an overnight fast for free leptin, bound leptin, soluble leptin receptor, insulin, and IGF-I. At V2 and V3, respectively, a fall in free leptin (P < 0.001 for each), and at V3 a fall in in percent fat mass (P < 0.001) were observed. There were no significant changes in BMI or WHR. Simultaneously, there was a rise in insulin (P = 0.068 and P < 0.001), IGF-I (P < 0.001 and P < 0.001), bound leptin (P = 0.005 and P < 0.001), and soluble leptin receptor (P = 0.61 and P < 0.001). A positive relationship was noted between free leptin and BMI (P < 0.001) and between free leptin and fat mass (P < 0.001), and a negative relationship was found between free leptin and IGF-I (P < 0.001) and, within patient, between free leptin and insulin (P < 0.001). There was no significant correlation between free leptin and WHR. Bound leptin had a positive association with IGF-I (P < 0.001) and insulin (P = 0.002) and a negative relationship with percent fat mass (P = 0.023). Soluble leptin receptor was also positively related to IGF-I (P < 0.001). In conclusion, our data suggest that the reduction in serum leptin with GH treatment, as noted by others, is mediated through a fall in free leptin. The fall in free leptin and in part the rise in bound leptin are most likely through a reduction in percent fat mass. However, the observed changes in free leptin and bound leptin and, more importantly, the rise in soluble leptin receptor, are not explained entirely by modifications in body composition and may be a direct result of GH/IGF-I.

A longitudinal field trial of the effect of biotin on lameness in dairy cows

A longitudinal prospective intervention study investigated the effect of biotin supplementation on the incidence (new cases per day) of visible lameness in milking cows and heifers on five commercial farms in Gloucestershire, United Kingdom. The trial lasted from June 1997 to April 1999. Each farm participated in the trial for 18 mo. Within each herd the cows were randomly allocated to either receive a supplement of 20 mg of biotin per day or not. All cows were run as one herd on each farm. When a lame cow was identified, the farmer called one of six veterinarians to examine and treat the affected animal; findings were recorded on a standard form. A veterinarian also carried out a bimonthly locomotion assessment to ensure that all lame cows were diagnosed. There were a total of 900 cows, 1120 cow years, in the trial. The overall incidence rate of lameness (per 100 cows per year) was 68.9, with a range of 31.6 to 111.5 per farm. The incidence rates of the four most frequently reported causes of lameness were sole ulcer, 13.8; white line separation, 12.7; digital dermatitis, 12.0; and interdigital necrobacillosis, 7.1 per 100 cows per year. There was a significant difference in the incidence rate of these four lesions between supplemented and unsupplemented cows on two of the five farms, with a significant decrease in lameness in the cows supplemented with biotin. When all the farms were pooled, the risk of lameness caused by white line separation in cattle supplemented with biotin was approximately halved (Cox proportional hazard survival analysis hazard ratio = 0.57).