Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Complete Radiologic Response to Trans-Arterial Embolization: A Retrospective Study on Patterns, Treatments, and Prognoses

BACKGROUND

There is limited information about the long-term outcomes and patterns of progression in patients who have unresectable, liver-confined hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with complete response (CR) to transarterial embolization and do not undergo resection or transplantation (LT).

METHODS

A retrospective review analyzed participants in a randomized trial comparing hepatic artery embolization (HAE) and drug-eluting bead transarterial chemoembolization (DEB-TACE) with doxorubicin who had CR according to modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (mRECIST). The overall survival (OS), incidence and patterns of progression, and factors associated with progression were assessed.

RESULTS

Of the 101 patients in the trial, 37 with CR were included in this study. This cohort had 17 patients treated with HAE (46 %), and 20 patients managed with DEB-TACE (54 %). The median age was 67 years (range, 42-82 years). Most of the cohort were male (86.5 %) and Caucasian (78 %). The median pre-treatment Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was 10, and 70 % of the cohort had Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B or C. The median follow-up period was 49 months (95 % confidence interval [CI], 9-108 months), and the median OS was 25 months (95 % CI, 18.9-30.9 months). The 3- and 5-year survival rates were respectively 31 % (95 % CI, 16.7-45.9 %) and 18 % (95 % CI, 6.8-32.1 %). The 1- and 2-year cumulative incidences of progression were respectively 76 % (95 % CI, 57.7-86.8 %) and 92 % (95 % CI, 74.5-97.6 %). The most common first site of progression was the previously treated hepatic site or local site (32 %, 12/37). The 3-year cumulative incidence of progression was 65 % (95 % CI, 46.4-78.4 %) for the local site.

CONCLUSION

Patients with advanced-stage HCC and CR to embolization do not have durable responses and experience inevitable disease progression. Most patients with progression have liver-confined disease and should be evaluated for additional consolidative treatments.

Development and validation of the Massachusetts General Hospital/Memorial Sloan Kettering nomogram to predict overall survival of resected patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant therapy

BACKGROUND

Prognostication in patients undergoing resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma following neoadjuvant therapy remains challenging. In this study, we aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for the prediction of overall survival of these patients.

METHODS

Patients who underwent neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgical resection at the Massachusetts General Hospital were analyzed (training cohort). Patients from Memorial Sloan Kettering were included as a validation cohort. A nomogram to predict overall survival was designed, trained, and subjected to internal (bootstrap) validation.

RESULTS

A total of 325 patients were identified from Massachusetts General Hospital. Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated that age (hazard ratio 1.828, 95% confidence interval 1.251-2.246; P = .007), serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 ≥ 37 U/mL (HR 1.602, 95% confidence interval 1.187-3.258; P = .015), tumor size (hazard ratio 2.278, 95% confidence interval 1.405-4.368; P = .003), nodal status (hazard ratio 1.309, 95% confidence interval 1.108-2.439; P = .032), and R1 tumor resection (hazard ratio 1.481, 95% confidence interval 1.049-2.091; P = .026) were independent factors associated with overall survival. A nomogram that incorporated these significant prognostic factors was established. The calibration plots demonstrated high concordance between predictive nomogram values and actual overall survival for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year overall survival. The model demonstrated excellent discriminatory power in both the Massachusetts General Hospital and Memorial Sloan Kettering cohorts, with adjusted Harrel's concordance index values of 0.729 and 0.712, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In this report, we established and validated a novel nomogram for predicting the survival of patients who underwent neoadjuvant therapy followed by pancreatectomy. This model allows clinicians to better estimate the survival of these specific patients.