Exploring Structural Uncertainty and Impact of Health State Utility Values on Lifetime Outcomes in Diabetes Economic Simulation Models: Findings from the Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Quality-of-Life Challenge

BACKGROUND

Structural uncertainty can affect model-based economic simulation estimates and study conclusions. Unfortunately, unlike parameter uncertainty, relatively little is known about its magnitude of impact on life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in modeling of diabetes. We leveraged the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, a biennial conference attended by international diabetes modeling groups, to assess structural uncertainty in simulating QALYs in type 2 diabetes simulation models.

METHODS

Eleven type 2 diabetes simulation modeling groups participated in the 9th Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge. Modeling groups simulated 5 diabetes-related intervention profiles using predefined baseline characteristics and a standard utility value set for diabetes-related complications. LYs and QALYs were reported. Simulations were repeated using lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs. Changes in LYs and QALYs from tested interventions were compared across models. Additional analyses were conducted postchallenge to investigate drivers of cross-model differences.

RESULTS

Substantial cross-model variability in incremental LYs and QALYs was observed, particularly for HbA1c and body mass index (BMI) intervention profiles. For a 0.5%-point permanent HbA1c reduction, LY gains ranged from 0.050 to 0.750. For a 1-unit permanent BMI reduction, incremental QALYs varied from a small decrease in QALYs (-0.024) to an increase of 0.203. Changes in utility values of health states had a much smaller impact (to the hundredth of a decimal place) on incremental QALYs. Microsimulation models were found to generate a mean of 3.41 more LYs than cohort simulation models (P = 0.049).

CONCLUSIONS

Variations in utility values contribute to a lesser extent than uncertainty captured as structural uncertainty. These findings reinforce the importance of assessing structural uncertainty thoroughly because the choice of model (or models) can influence study results, which can serve as evidence for resource allocation decisions.HighlightsThe findings indicate substantial cross-model variability in QALY predictions for a standardized set of simulation scenarios and is considerably larger than within model variability to alternative health state utility values (e.g., lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs).There is a need to understand and assess structural uncertainty, as the choice of model to inform resource allocation decisions can matter more than the choice of health state utility values.

Healthy Lifetime (HL): An Internet-Based Behavioral Health Coaching Protocol for Older Adults

By 2060, the number of Americans 65 years and older will more than double, comprising nearly one-quarter of the population in the United States. While there are many advantages to living longer, a byproduct of aging is also a growing incidence of chronic illness and functional health limitations associated with a concurrent rise in chronic disease and disability that impair independent living in the community. We describe a personalized, behavioral health coaching protocol for early intervention that is delivered online to enhance a participant's independent functioning and to increase their self-care capacity with a goal to maintain independent living throughout aging. The electronic platform provides secure access to fillable surveys, health tracking, “just in time” communication with coaches and scheduling of two-way videos launched from the platform site. The 2-month protocol used two-way video conferencing which allowed high fidelity communication to sustain a complex behavioral intervention. Participants indicate high satisfaction with the intervention, the use of the platform, and the technology. While many health systems across the U.S. have ramped up virtual delivery of care in a proactive manner with now more than 70% of out-patient visits conducted through virtual delivery modes in some health systems, there remains much unevenness in this capability across the U.S. Our approach is to create a stable, interoperable, virtual outreach system for personalized professional health coaching that is complementary to medically oriented services that supports the health and functioning of participants as they age.