Predicting disease progression in men with localized high risk prostate cancer undergoing radical prostatectomy

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Background: Currently utilized pre-treatment nomograms for prostate cancer were developed and validated using populations primarily composed of men with low and intermediate risk disease. This study aims to construct a nomogram that predicts for biochemical recurrence (BCR) and metastasis (mets) from a contemporary cohort of men with with NCCN high (HR) and very high risk (VHR) prostate cancer. Methods: From 2005 to 2015, 1,241 men with NCCN HR or VHR prostate cancer were identified from two large academic medical centers. The cohort was divided into training (n = 620) and validation (n = 621) cohorts. Primary endpoints were BCR and mets. Cox multivariable regression was performed to model characteristics and outcomes in the training cohort. Model accuracy was assessed using the time-dependent area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) in the validation cohort. Results: 494 men (245 training and 249 validation) developed BCR, and 123 men (64 training and 59 validation) developed mets, with BCR-free and mets-free probability of 49.0% and 86.5% at 5- years, respectively. Predictive nomograms including age, ethnicity, PSA, Gleason grade, clinical stage, and the number of cores with Gleason 8-10 disease were developed. Models for BCR and mets had AUCs of 0.72 and 0.75. By comparison, the MSKCC preoperative nomogram and CAPRA nomogram provided AUCs of 0.69 and 0.68 for predicting BCR and 0.66 and 0.67 for mets. Conclusions: Individualized risk assessment is imperative for optimal decision making and to design and power clinical trials. The nomograms described here, created from a population exclusively comprised of HR/VHR men, have better discrimination than those previously established on cohorts of primarily low and intermediate risk men, and may represent an ideal way by which oncologic outcomes can be predicted in men with HR or VHR disease.

Evaluation of two mitochondrial DNA biomarkers for prostate cancer detection

BACKGROUND

A 3.4kb deletion (3.4kbΔ ) in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) found in histologically normal prostate biopsy specimens has been reported to be a biomarker for the increased probability of prostate cancer. Increased mtDNA copy number is also reported as associated with cancer.

OBJECTIVE

Independent evaluation of these two potential prostate cancer biomarkers using formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) prostate tissue and matched urine and serum from a high risk cohort of men with and without prostate cancer.

METHODS

Biomarker levels were detected via qPCR.

RESULTS

Both 3.4kbΔ and mtDNA levels were significantly higher in cancer patient FFPE cores (p= 0.045 and p= 0.070 respectively at > 90% confidence). Urine from cancer patients contained significantly higher levels of mtDNA (p= 0.006, 64.3% sensitivity, 86.7% specificity). Combining the 3.4kbΔ and mtDNA gave better performance of detecting prostate cancer than either biomarker alone (FFPE 73.7% sensitivity, 65% specificity; urine 64.3% sensitivity, 100% specificity). In serum, there was no difference for any of the biomarkers.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first report on detecting the 3.4kbΔ in urine and evaluating mtDNA levels as a prostate cancer biomarker. A confirmation study with increased sample size and possibly with additional biomarkers would need to be conducted to corroborate and extend these observations.

Prediction of pathological stage based on clinical stage, serum prostate-specific antigen, and biopsy Gleason score: Partin Tables in the contemporary era

OBJECTIVE

To update the Partin Tables for prediction of pathological stage in the contemporary setting and examine trends in patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) over the past three decades.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

From January 2010 to October 2015, 4459 men meeting inclusion criteria underwent RP and pelvic lymphadenectomy for histologically confirmed prostate cancer at the Johns Hopkins Hospital. Preoperative clinical stage, serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, and biopsy Gleason score (i.e. prognostic Grade Group) were used in a polychotomous logistic regression model to predict the probability of pathological outcomes categorised as: organ-confined (OC), extraprostatic extension (EPE), seminal vesicle involvement (SV+), or lymph node involvement (LN+). Preoperative characteristics and pathological findings in men treated with RP since 1983 were collected and clinical-pathological trends were described.

RESULTS

The median (range) age at surgery was 60 (34-77) years and the median (range) PSA level was 4.9 (0.1-125.0) ng/mL. The observed probabilities of pathological outcomes were: OC disease in 74%, EPE in 20%, SV+ in 4%, and LN+ in 2%. The probability of EPE increased substantially when biopsy Gleason score increased from 6 (Grade Group 1, GG1) to 3 + 4 (GG2), with smaller increases for higher grades. The probability of LN+ was substantially higher for biopsy Gleason score 9-10 (GG5) as compared to lower Gleason scores. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for binary logistic models predicting EPE, SV+, and LN+ vs OC were 0.724, 0.856, and 0.918, respectively. The proportion of men treated with biopsy Gleason score ≤6 cancer (GG1) was 47%, representing a substantial decrease from 63% in the previous cohort and 77% in 2000-2005. The proportion of men with OC cancer has remained similar during that time, equalling 73-74% overall. The proportions of men with SV+ (4.1% from 3.4%) and LN+ (2.3% from 1.4%) increased relative to the preceding era for the first time since the Partin Tables were introduced in 1993.

CONCLUSIONS

The Partin Tables remain a straightforward and accurate approach for projecting pathological outcomes based on readily available clinical data. Acknowledging these data are derived from a tertiary care referral centre, the proportion of men with OC disease has remained stable since 2000, despite a substantial decline in the proportion of men with biopsy Gleason score 6 (GG1). This is consistent with the notion that many men with Gleason score 6 (GG1) disease were over treated in previous eras.

Tissue-based Genomics Augments Post-prostatectomy Risk Stratification in a Natural History Cohort of Intermediate- and High-Risk Men

BACKGROUND

Radical prostatectomy (RP) is a primary treatment option for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer. Although many are effectively cured with local therapy alone, these men are by definition at higher risk of adverse pathologic features and clinical disease recurrence. It has been shown that the Decipher test predicts metastatic progression in cohorts that received adjuvant and salvage therapy following RP.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the Decipher genomic classifier in a natural history cohort of men at risk who received no additional treatment until the time of metastatic progression.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective case-cohort design for 356 men who underwent RP between 1992 and 2010 at intermediate or high risk and received no additional treatment until the time of metastasis. Participants met the following criteria: (1) Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment postsurgical (CAPRA-S) score ≥3; (2) pathologic Gleason score ≥7; and (3) post-RP prostate-specific antigen nadir <0.2 ng/ml.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The primary endpoint was defined as regional or distant metastases. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, extension of decision curve analysis to survival data, and univariable and multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were used to measure the discrimination, net benefit, and prognostic potential of genomic and pathologic risk factors. Cumulative incidence curves were constructed using Fine-Gray competing-risks analysis with appropriate weighting of the controls to account for the case-cohort study design.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Ninety six patients had unavailable tumor blocks or failed microarray quality control. Decipher scores were then obtained for 260 patients, of whom 99 experienced metastasis. Decipher correlated with increased cumulative incidence of biochemical recurrence, metastasis, and prostate cancer-specific mortality (p<0.01). The cumulative incidence of metastasis was 12% and 47% for patients with low and high Decipher scores, respectively, at 10 yr after RP. Decipher was independently prognostic of metastasis in multivariable analysis (hazard ratio 1.26 per 10% increase; p<0.01). Decipher had a c-index of 0.76 and increased the c-index of Eggener and CAPRA-S risk models from 0.76 and 0.77 to 0.86 and 0.87, respectively, at 10 yr after RP. Although the cohort was large, the single-center retrospective design is an important limitation.

CONCLUSIONS

In a patient population that received no adjuvant or salvage therapy after prostatectomy until metastatic progression, higher Decipher scores correlated with clinical events, and inclusion of Decipher scores improved the prognostic performance of validated clinicopathologic risk models. These results confirm the utility already reported for Decipher.

PATIENT SUMMARY

The Decipher test improves identification of patients most at risk of metastatic progression and death from prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy.

Utility of Risk Models in Decision Making After Radical Prostatectomy: Lessons from a Natural History Cohort of Intermediate- and High-Risk Men

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines suggest adjuvant radiation therapy for men with adverse pathologic features (APFs) at radical prostatectomy (RP). We examine at-risk men treated only with RP until the time of metastasis.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether clinicopathologic risk models can help guide postoperative therapeutic decision making.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Men with National Comprehensive Cancer Network intermediate- or high-risk localized prostate cancer undergoing RP in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) era were identified (n=3089). Only men with initial undetectable PSA after surgery and who received no therapy prior to metastasis were included. APFs were defined as pT3 disease or positive surgical margins.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for time to event data was used to measure the discrimination performance of the risk factors. Cumulative incidence curves were constructed using Fine and Gray competing risks analysis to estimate the risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) or metastasis, taking censoring and death due to other causes into consideration.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Overall, 43% of the cohort (n=1327) had APFs at RP. Median follow-up for censored patients was 5 yr. Cumulative incidence of metastasis was 6% at 10 yr after RP for all patients. Cumulative incidence of metastasis among men with APFs was 7.5% at 10 yr after RP. Among men with BCR, the incidence of metastasis was 38% 5 yr after BCR. At 10 yr after RP, time-dependent AUC for predicting metastasis by Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical or Eggener risk models was 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.97) and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.67-0.97) in the APF population, respectively. At 5 yr after BCR, these values were lower (0.58 [95% CI, 0.50-0.66] and 0.70 [95% CI, 0.63-0.76]) among those who developed BCR. Use of risk model cut points could substantially reduce overtreatment while minimally increasing undertreatment (ie, use of an Eggener cut point of 2.5% for treatment of men with APFs would spare 46% from treatment while only allowing for metastatic events in 1% at 10 yr after RP).

CONCLUSIONS

Use of risk models reduces overtreatment and should be a routine part of patient counseling when considering adjuvant therapy. Risk model performance is significantly reduced among men with BCR.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Use of current risk models can help guide decision making regarding therapy after surgery and reduce overtreatment.

Validation of the Decipher prostate cancer classifier in intermediate to high-risk men treated with radical prostatectomy but without additional therapy upon PSA rise

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Background: Radical prostatectomy (RP) is a primary treatment option for men with intermediate and high risk prostate cancer. Though many will be effectively cured with local therapy alone, these men are by definition at higher risk of adverse pathologic findings and clinical disease recurrence. The Decipher test has been previously shown to predict metastatic progression in cohorts that included adjuvant and salvage therapy after RP. Here we evaluate Decipher in a natural history cohort of at risk men who received no additional treatment until the time of metastatic progression. Methods: Men with NCCN intermediate or high risk localized prostate cancer treated with RP at the Johns Hopkins Medical Institute (1992-2010) with at least 5 years of post-operative follow up were identified. Only men with initial undetectable PSA after surgery and who received no therapy prior to metastasis detection were included (n=765). A case-cohort design was used to randomly sample the cohort. The highest Gleason grade cancer tissue was used for RNA extraction and Decipher genomic classifier (GC) scores were calculated with a locked 22-biomarker signature and algorithm. Results: GC results were obtained for 260 patients, 28% had positive margins, 77% had EPE, 28% had SVI, 20% had lymph node invasion and 36% had Gleason ≥8 disease. Median follow up was 9 (IQR 6-12) years and at 15 years post RP the cumulative incidence of BCR, metastasis and prostate cancer specific death was 38%, 21% and 9%. Median GC score was 0.34 (IQR: 0.22-0.52) and was significantly higher among men experiencing metastatic progression during follow up (0.47 vs 0.28 respectively p<0.001). In UVA and MVA (adjusting for clinical covariates), GC had an HR of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.30-1.69, p<0.001) and 1.37 (95% CI: 1.21-1.55, p<0.001) per 10% increase, respectively. Conclusions: The majority of the men in this study had excellent long-term outcomes with surgery alone. Elevated Decipher scores correlated with metastatic events, independent of clinical risk factors. Use of Decipher may allow for selection of candidates for immediate vs. delayed adjuvant or salvage therapy following prostatectomy.

Racial disparities in oncologic outcomes after radical prostatectomy: long-term follow-up

OBJECTIVE

To report race-based outcomes after radical prostatectomy (RP) in a cohort stratified by National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk category with updated follow-up.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Studies describing racial disparities in outcomes after RP are conflicting. We studied 15,993 white and 1634 African American (AA) pretreatment-naïve men who underwent RP at our institution (1992-2013) with complete preoperative and pathologic data. Pathologic outcomes were compared between races using appropriate statistical tests; biochemical recurrence (BCR) for men with complete follow-up was compared using multivariate models that controlled separately for preoperative and postoperative covariates.

RESULTS

Very low- and low-risk AA men were more likely to have positive surgical margins (P <.01), adverse pathologic features (P <.01), and be upgraded at RP (P <.01). With a median follow-up of 4.0 years after RP, AA race was an independent predictor of BCR among NCCN low-risk (HR, 2.16; P <.001) and intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34; P = .024) classes and pathologic Gleason score ≤ 6 (HR, 2.42; P <.001) and Gleason score 7 (HR, 1.71; P <.001). BCR-free survival for very low-risk AA men was similar to low-risk white men (P = .890); BCR-free survival for low-risk AA men was similar to intermediate-risk white men (P = .060).

CONCLUSION

When stratified by NCCN risk, AA men with very low-, low-, or intermediate-risk prostate cancer who undergo RP are more likely to have adverse pathologic findings and BCR compared with white men. AA men with "low risk" prostate cancer, especially those considering active surveillance, should be counseled that their recurrence risks can resemble those of whites in higher risk categories.

Outcomes of men with an elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level as their sole preoperative intermediate- or high-risk feature

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the post-prostatectomy and long-term outcomes of men presenting with an elevated pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level (>10 ng/mL), but otherwise low-risk features (biopsy Gleason score ≤6 and clinical stage ≤T2a).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

PSA-incongruent intermediate-risk (PII) cases were defined as those patients with preoperative PSA >10 and ≤20 ng/mL but otherwise low-risk features, and PSA-incongruent high-risk (PIH) cases were defined as men with PSA >20 ng/mL but otherwise low-risk features. Our institutional radical prostatectomy database (1992-2012) was queried and the results were stratified into D'Amico low-, intermediate- and high risk, PSA-incongruent intermediate-risk and PSA-incongruent high-risk cases. Prostate cancer (PCa) features and outcomes were evaluated using appropriate comparative tests. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for age, race and year of surgery.

RESULTS

Of the total cohort of 17 608 men, 1132 (6.4%) had PII-risk disease and 183 (1.0%) had PIH-risk disease. Compared with the low-risk group, the odds of upgrading at radical prostatectomy (RP) were 2.20 (95% CI 1.93-2.52; P < 0.001) for the PII group and 3.58 (95% CI 2.64-4.85; P < 0.001) for the PIH group, the odds of extraprostatic disease at RP were 2.35 (95% CI 2.05-2.68; P < 0.001) for the PII group and 6.68 (95% CI 4.89-9.15; P < 0.001) for the PIH group, and the odds of positive surgical margins were 1.97 (95% CI 1.67-2.33; P < 0.001) for the PII group and 3.54 (95% CI 2.50-4.95, P < 0.001) for the PIH group. Compared with low-risk disease, PII-risk disease was associated with a 2.85-, 2.99- and 3.32-fold greater risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR), metastasis and PCa-specific mortality, respectively, and PIH-risk disease was associated with a 5.32-, 6.14- and 7.07-fold greater risk of BCR, metastasis and PCa-specific mortality, respectively (P ≤ 0.001 for all comparisons). For the PII group, the higher risks of positive surgical margins, upgrading, upstaging and BCR were dependent on PSA density (PSAD): men in the PII group who had a PSAD <0.15 ng/mL/g were not at higher risk compared with those in the low-risk group. Men in the PII group with a PSAD ≥0.15 ng/mL/g and men in the PIH group were more likely to have an anterior component of the dominant tumour (59 and 64%, respectively) compared with those in the low- (35%) and intermediate-risk group (39%) and those in the PII-risk group with PSAD <0.15 ng/mL/g (29%).

CONCLUSIONS

Men with PSA >20 ng/mL or men with PSA >10 and ≤20 ng/mL with a PSAD ≥0.15 ng/mL/g, but otherwise low-risk PCa, are at greater risk of adverse pathological and oncological outcomes and may be inappropriate candidates for active surveillance. These men are at greater risk of having anterior tumours that are undersampled at biopsy, so if treatment is deferred, ancillary testing such as anterior zone sampling or magnetic resonance imaging should be strongly encouraged. Men with elevated PSA levels >10 and ≤20 ng/mL but low PSAD have outcomes similar to those in the low-risk group, and consideration of surveillance is appropriate in these cases.

Risk Factors for Intraprostatic Incision into Malignant Glands at Radical Prostatectomy

BACKGROUND

Histologically identified intraprostatic incision (IPI) into malignant glands is associated with an increase in biochemical recurrence following radical prostatectomy (RP). However, the predictor of IPI is poorly evaluated.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the risk factors for IPI into cancer during RP for clinically localized prostate cancer (PCa).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Between January 1993 and July 2013, 19 986 men with clinically localized PCa underwent RP at our institution. This study includes 14 434 cases that had complete clinicopathologic data. IPI was defined as an iatrogenic incision into the prostate resulting in the presence of malignant glands at the inked surgical margin, regardless of accompanying pathologic features.

INTERVENTION

Open, retropubic, robot-assisted laparoscopic and pure laparoscopic RP.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted for risk factors of IPI in RP specimens.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

The overall incidence of IPI into malignant tissue was noted in 410 (2.8%) cases. In multivariable analysis, obesity, lower prostate weight, surgeon experience, and pure laparoscopic RP were associated with a higher risk of IPI. The odds ratios (OR) for body mass index and prostate weight were 1.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.08; p<0.001) and 0.99 (95% CI, 0.98-0.99, p<0.001), respectively. The ORs for surgeon experience (>250 cases) and pure laparoscopic RP compared to open RP were 0.71 (95% CI, 0.55-0.90, p=0.005) and 2.05 (95% CI, 1.35-3.11; p=0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of IPI during RP is higher in men with obesity and lower prostate weight. In addition, a pure laparoscopic RP and the early series of each surgeon were associated with a higher risk of IPI. However, tumor characteristics were not associated with the IPI occurrence.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Intraprostatic incision occurrence is associated with obesity, small prostate, and surgeon experience and laparoscopic technique but not Gleason score and tumor stage.

Prevalence of the HOXB13 G84E prostate cancer risk allele in men treated with radical prostatectomy

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence and clinical correlates of the G84E mutation in the homeobox transcription factor, or HOXB13, gene using DNA samples from 9559 men with prostate cancer undergoing radical prostatectomy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

DNA samples from men treated with radical prostatectomy at the University of Michigan and John Hopkins University were genotyped for G84E and this was confirmed by Sanger sequencing. The frequency and distribution of this allele was determined according to specific patient characteristics (family history, age at diagnosis, pathological Gleason grade and stage).

RESULTS

Of 9559 patients, 128 (1.3%) were heterozygous carriers of G84E. Patients who possessed the variant were more likely to have a family history of prostate cancer than those who did not (46.0 vs 35.4%; P = 0.006). G84E carriers were also more likely to be diagnosed at a younger age than non-carriers (55.2 years vs 58.1 years; P < 0.001). No difference in the proportion of patients diagnosed with high grade or advanced stage tumours according to carrier status was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

In the present study, carriers of the rare G84E variant in HOXB13 were both younger at the time of diagnosis and more likely to have a family history of prostate cancer compared with homozygotes for the wild-type allele. No significant differences in allele frequency were detected according to selected clinical characteristics of prostate cancer. Further investigation is required to evaluate the role of HOXB13 in prostate carcinogenesis.

Association of PTEN protein loss with upgrading of prostate cancer from biopsy to radical prostatectomy

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Background: Active surveillance is increasingly recommended for men with low-risk Gleason Score 3+3=6 (GS 6) prostate cancer. Yet, approximately one-third of patients with GS 6 cancer on biopsy are upgraded to higher GS at radical prostatectomy (RP). Previous studies have shown that clinical-pathologic parameters (age, prostate-specific antigen [PSA], prostate volume, extent of disease) are weak predictors of GS6 tumor upgrade. Our goal was to investigate the utility of PTEN as a molecular marker to predict upgrading in GS 6 biopsies. Methods: In a retrospective case-control study, 71 patients with GS 6 tumors on needle biopsy that were upgraded to GS 7 or higher cancer at RP (cases) were compared to 103 patients whose GS 6 tumors on needle biopsy were not upgraded at RP (controls). The most extensively involved needle core biopsy from each case was immunostained and scored for PTEN protein loss using a previously validated immunohistochemical (IHC) assay and binary scoring system. Confirmatory fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) was used to assess for PTEN gene deletion in biopsies with PTEN protein loss. The correlation of upgrading with PTEN loss and with clinical-pathologic variables was assessed by logistic regression. Results: Patients with upgraded cancers were older than controls (61.8 vs. 59.3 years), had higher mean pre-operative PSA levels (6.53 vs. 5.26 ng/mL), and a higher fraction of biopsy cores involved by tumor (0.42 vs, 0.36). However, of all pathologic variables, PTEN protein loss by IHC was most predictive of upgrading. Overall, PTEN protein loss was found in 18.3% (13 out of 71) of upgraded cases compared to 6.8% (7 out of 103) of controls (p=0.02). In the cases with PTEN protein loss, FISH confirmed homozygous PTEN deletion in 90% (9 out of 10) of upgraded tumors compared to 67% (4 out of 6) of interpretable not upgraded controls. On multivariate analyses, even after adjusting for age, preoperative PSA, clinical stage and race, GS 6 tumors with PTEN protein loss on biopsy were significantly more likely to be upgraded at RP compared to those without PTEN loss with odds ratio (OR) = 3.04 (1.08-8.55; p=0.035). Conclusions: In prostate needle biopsies, PTEN IHC may help distinguish men with low risk cancer from men with intermediate or higher risk cancers.

African American men with very low-risk prostate cancer exhibit adverse oncologic outcomes after radical prostatectomy: should active surveillance still be an option for them?

PURPOSE

Active surveillance (AS) is a treatment option for men with very low-risk prostate cancer (PCa); however, favorable outcomes achieved for men in AS are based on cohorts that under-represent African American (AA) men. To explore whether race-based health disparities exist among men with very low-risk PCa, we evaluated oncologic outcomes of AA men with very low-risk PCa who were candidates for AS but elected to undergo radical prostatectomy (RP).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We studied 1,801 men (256 AA, 1,473 white men, and 72 others) who met National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria for very low-risk PCa and underwent RP. Presenting characteristics, pathologic data, and cancer recurrence were compared among the groups. Multivariable modeling was performed to assess the association of race with upgrading and adverse pathologic features.

RESULTS

AA men with very low-risk PCa had more adverse pathologic features at RP and poorer oncologic outcomes. AA men were more likely to experience disease upgrading at prostatectomy (27.3% v 14.4%; P < .001), positive surgical margins (9.8% v 5.9%; P = .02), and higher Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Post-Surgical scoring system (CAPRA-S) scores. On multivariable analysis, AA race was an independent predictor of adverse pathologic features (odds ratio, [OR], 3.23; P = .03) and pathologic upgrading (OR, 2.26; P = .03).

CONCLUSION

AA men with very low-risk PCa who meet criteria for AS but undergo immediate surgery experience significantly higher rates of upgrading and adverse pathology than do white men and men of other races. AA men with very low-risk PCa should be counseled about increased oncologic risk when deciding among their disease management options.

An updated prostate cancer staging nomogram (Partin tables) based on cases from 2006 to 2011

OBJECTIVE

To update the 2007 Partin tables in a contemporary patient population.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study population consisted of 5,629 consecutive men who underwent RP and staging lymphadenectomy at the Johns Hopkins Hospital between January 1, 2006 and July 30, 2011 and met inclusion criteria. Polychotomous logistic regression analysis was used to predict the probability of each pathologic stage category: organ-confined disease (OC), extraprostatic extension (EPE), seminal vesicle involvement (SV+), or lymph node involvement (LN+) based on preoperative criteria. Preoperative variables included biopsy Gleason score (6, 3+4, 4+3, 8, and 9-10), serum PSA (0-2.5, 2.6-4.0, 4.1-6.0, 6.1-10.0, greater than 10.0 ng/mL), and clinical stage (T1c, T2c, and T2b/T2c). Bootstrap re-sampling with 1000 replications was performed to estimate 95% confidence intervals for predicted probabilities of each pathologic state.

RESULTS

The median PSA was 4.9 ng/mL, 63% had Gleason 6 disease, and 78% of men had T1c disease. 73% of patients had OC disease, 23% had EPE, 3% had SV+ but not LN+, and 1% had LN+ disease. Compared to the previous Partin nomogram, there was no change in the distribution of pathologic state. The risk of LN+ disease was significantly higher for tumours with biopsy Gleason 9-10 than Gleason 8 (O.R. 3.2, 95% CI 1.3-7.6). The c-indexes for EPE vs. OC, SV+ vs. OC, and LN+ vs. OC were 0.702, 0.853, and 0.917, respectively. Men with biopsy Gleason 4+3 and Gleason 8 had similar predicted probabilities for all pathologic stages. Most men presenting with Gleason 6 disease or Gleason 3+4 disease have <2% risk of harboring LN+ disease and may have lymphadenectomy omitted at RP.

CONCLUSIONS

The distribution of pathologic stages did not change at our institution between 2000-2005 and 2006-2011. The updated Partin nomogram takes into account the updated Gleason scoring system and may be more accurate for contemporary patients diagnosed with prostate cancer.

The natural history of metastatic progression in men with prostate-specific antigen recurrence after radical prostatectomy: long-term follow-up

OBJECTIVE

To describe metastasis-free survival (MFS) in men with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence following radical prostatectomy, and to define clinical prognostic factors modifying metastatic risk.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of 450 men treated with prostatectomy at a tertiary hospital between July 1981 and July 2010 who developed PSA recurrence (≥0.2 ng/mL) and never received adjuvant or salvage therapy before the development of metastatic disease. We estimated MFS using the Kaplan-Meier method, and investigated factors influencing the risk of metastasis using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Median follow-up after prostatectomy was 8.0 years, and after biochemical recurrence was 4.0 years. At last follow-up, 134 of 450 patients (29.8%) had developed metastases, while median MFS was 10.0 years. Using multivariable regressions, two variables emerged as independently predictive of MFS: PSA doubling time (<3.0 vs 3.0-8.9 vs 9.0-14.9 vs ≥15.0 months) and Gleason score (≤6 vs 7 vs 8-10). Using these stratifications of Gleason score and PSA doubling time, tables were constructed to predict median, 5- and 10-year MFS after PSA recurrence. In different patient subsets, median MFS ranged from 1 to 15 years.

CONCLUSIONS

In men undergoing prostatectomy, MFS after PSA recurrence is variable and is most strongly influenced by PSA doubling time and Gleason score. These parameters serve to stratify men into different risk groups with respect to metastatic progression. Our findings may provide the background for appropriate selection of patients, treatments and endpoints for clinical trials.

Can we stop prostate specific antigen testing 10 years after radical prostatectomy?

PURPOSE

The risk of biochemical recurrence is inversely related to the relapse-free interval after radical prostatectomy. We examined predictors of late biochemical recurrence, and the relationship between timing of biochemical recurrence and long-term survival outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Of 10,609 men treated with radical prostatectomy 1,684 had biochemical recurrence. We examined predictors of late biochemical recurrence (more than 10 years after radical prostatectomy), and calculated metastasis-free and cancer specific survival rates from the time of biochemical recurrence. In the subset of 1,583 men with an undetectable prostate specific antigen at 10 years we calculated actuarial metastasis-free and cancer specific survival estimates at 20 years after radical prostatectomy.

RESULTS

Of the biochemical recurrence studied 77.0%, 16.6%, 4.9% and 1.5% occurred at 5 or less, greater than 5 to 10, greater than 10 to 15 and more than 15 years postoperatively. Late recurrence was associated with more favorable pathological features, as well as higher metastasis-free and cancer specific survival rates. For men with an undetectable prostate specific antigen at 10 years the actuarial probability of biochemical recurrence and metastasis at 20 years varied by stage and grade, with no metastases in patients with a prostatectomy Gleason score 6 or less. A single patient with an undetectable prostate specific antigen at 10 years died of prostate cancer within 20 years after radical prostatectomy.

CONCLUSIONS

Men with an undetectable prostate specific antigen for more than 10 years have a low risk of subsequent biochemical recurrence, with correspondingly lower rates of metastasis and death. These patients should be counseled that their risk of subsequent cancer related morbidity and mortality is low. Furthermore, these results suggest that annual prostate specific antigen testing may be safely discontinued after 10 years for men with a prostatectomy Gleason score 6 or less and/or limited life expectancy.

Cigarette smoking and prostate cancer recurrence after prostatectomy

Toward the establishment of evidence-based recommendations for the prevention of prostate cancer recurrence after treatment, we examined the association between smoking and prostate cancer recurrence in a retrospective cohort study of 1416 men who underwent radical prostatectomy. Surgeries were performed by a single surgeon at Johns Hopkins Hospital between January 1, 1993, and March 31, 2006. Smoking status at 5 years before and 1 year after surgery was assessed by survey. Prostate cancer recurrence was defined as confirmed re-elevation of prostate-specific antigen levels, local recurrence, metastasis, or prostate cancer death. The cumulative incidence of recurrence was 34.3% among current smokers, 14.8% among former smokers, and 12.1% among never smokers, with a mean follow-up time of 7.3 years. Men who were current smokers at 1 year after surgery were more likely than never smokers to have disease recurrence after adjusting for pathological characteristics, including stage and grade (hazard ratio for recurrence = 2.31, 95% confidence interval = 1.05 to 5.10). This result suggests an association between cigarette smoking and risk of prostate cancer recurrence.

Association of statin use with pathological tumor characteristics and prostate cancer recurrence after surgery

PURPOSE

Prospective studies suggest that statins protect against advanced stage and possibly high grade prostate cancer. However, few studies have investigated the influence of stains on outcomes in men with prostate cancer. Thus, we evaluated the association of statin use with pathological tumor characteristics and prostate cancer recurrence after prostatectomy in a retrospective cohort.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 2,399 patients of 1 surgeon at Johns Hopkins Hospital who underwent radical prostatectomy in 1993 to 2006 and had not previously received hormone or radiation therapy were followed for recurrence. The surgeon routinely asked during the preoperative consultation what medications the men were using. Additional information on statin use was obtained from a mailed survey. We estimated the association of statin use with nonorgan confined disease (pT3a/b or N1) and high grade disease (Gleason sum [4 + 3] or greater) using logistic regression (OR), and recurrence using Cox proportional hazards regression (HR).

RESULTS

The 16.1% of men who used a statin at prostatectomy were statistically significantly less likely to have nonorgan confined disease than nonusers (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.50-0.85). Statin use was inversely associated with high grade disease only in men with preoperative PSA 10 ng/ml or greater (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.13-0.93, p-interaction = 0.02). The HR of recurrence among men who used a statin for 1 year or greater compared to nonusers was 0.77 (95% CI 0.41-1.42).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the hypothesis that statin use may protect against prostate cancer with poorer pathological characteristics. We could not rule in or out that longer term statin use may protect against recurrence after prostatectomy.

Weight gain is associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer recurrence after prostatectomy in the PSA era

Although obesity at the time of prostatectomy has been associated with prostate cancer recurrence, it is unknown whether obesity before or after surgery, or weight change from the years prior to surgery to after surgery is associated with recurrence. Thus, we examined the influence of obesity and weight change on recurrence after prostatectomy. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 1,337 men with clinically localized prostate cancer who underwent prostatectomy performed during 1993-2006 by the same surgeon. Men self-reported weight and physical activity at 5 years before and 1 year after surgery on a survey during follow-up. Mean follow-up was 7.3 years. We estimated multivariable-adjusted HRs of prostate cancer recurrence comparing obesity at 5 years before and at 1 year after surgery with normal weight, and a gain of more than 2.2 kg from 5 years before to 1 year after surgery with stable weight. During 9,797 person years of follow-up, 102 men recurred. Compared with men who had stable weight, those whose weight increased by more than 2.2 kg had twice the recurrence risk (HR = 1.94; 95% CI, 1.14-3.32) after taking into account age, pathologic stage and grade, and other characteristics. The HR of recurrence was 1.20 (95% CI, 0.64-2.23) and 1.72 (95% CI, 0.94-3.14) comparing obesity at 5 years before and at 1 year after surgery, respectively, with normal weight. Physical activity (≥ 5 h/wk) did not attenuate risk in men who gained more than 2.2 kg. By avoiding weight gain, men with prostate cancer may both prevent recurrence and improve overall well-being.

The impact of preoperative erectile dysfunction on survival after radical prostatectomy

PURPOSE

Erectile dysfunction (ED) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) share etiology and pathophysiology. The underlying pathology for preoperative ED may adversely affect survival following radical prostatectomy (RP). We examined the association between preoperative ED and survival following RP.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between 1983 and 2000, a single surgeon performed RP on 2511 men, with preoperative ED (ED group, n= 231, 9.2%) or without ED (No ED group, n= 2280, 90.8%). We retrospectively analysed their CVD-specific survival (CVDSS), prostate cancer-specific survival (PCSS), non-PCSS (NPCSS) and overall survival (OS) from time of surgery.

RESULTS

With median follow-up of 13 years after RP, 449 men (18%) died (140 from prostate cancer, 309 from other causes). Kaplan-Meier analyses demonstrated significant differences in CVDSS (P < 0.001), NPCSS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001), but not in PCSS (P= 0.12), between the ED group vs No ED group. In univariate proportional hazards analyses, preoperative ED was associated with a significant decrease in OS, hazard ratio (HR), 1.71 (95% CI, 1.34-2.23), P < 0.001. However, in multivariable analyses, the association of ED with survival became non-significant (HR, 1.25 (95% CI, 0.97-1.66), P= 0.111) after adjusting for other prognostic factors, such as age, preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, Gleason score, pathologic stage, body mass index and Charlson Comorbidity Index.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative ED is associated with decreased overall survival and survival from causes other than prostate cancer following RP. However, preoperative ED was not an independent predictor of overall survival after adjusting for other predictors of survival. Urologists should carefully assess pretreatment ED status to enhance appropriate treatment recommendation for men with prostate cancer.

Impact of surgical technique (open vs laparoscopic vs robotic-assisted) on pathological and biochemical outcomes following radical prostatectomy: an analysis using propensity score matching

OBJECTIVE

• To investigate a single institution experience with radical retropubic prostatectomy (RRP), laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (LRP) and robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP) with respect to pathological and biochemical outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

• A group of 522 consecutive patients who underwent RARP between 2003 and 2008 were matched by propensity scoring on the basis of patient age, race, preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA), biopsy Gleason score and clinical stage with an equal number of patients who underwent LRP and RRP at our institution. • Pathological and biochemical outcomes of the three cohorts were examined.

RESULTS

• Overall positive surgical margin rates were lower among patients who underwent RRP (14.4%) and LRP (13.0%) compared to patients who underwent RARP (19.5%) (P= 0.010). There were no statistically significant differences in positive margin rates between the three surgical techniques for pT2 disease (P= 0.264). • In multivariate logistic regression analysis, surgical technique (P= 0.016), biopsy Gleason score (P < 0.001) and preoperative PSA (P < 0.001) were predictors of positive surgical margins. • Kaplan-Meier analysis did not show any statistically significant differences with respect to biochemical recurrence for the three surgical groups.

CONCLUSIONS

• RRP, LRP and RARP represent effective surgical approaches for the treatment for clinically localized prostate cancer. A higher overall positive SM rate was observed for the RARP group compared to RRP and LRP; however, there was no difference with respect to biochemical recurrence-free survival between groups. • Further prospective studies are warranted to determine whether any particular technique is superior with regard to long-term clinical outcomes.

Abstract 883: Weight gain is associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer recurrence in the PSA era

Background: Obesity measured at or near time of prostatectomy has been associated with increased risk of prostate cancer recurrence. However, it is unknown whether obesity or weight gain in the years prior to surgery is associated with recurrence. In addition, whether physical inactivity or sedentary behavior exacerbates the obesity-related risk of recurrence has not been studied. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of men with clinically-localized prostate cancer who underwent radical prostatectomy performed by one surgeon at Johns Hopkins between 1/93 − 3/06 and who previously had not had hormone or radiation therapy. The men were followed for recurrence, defined as PSA recurrence, metastasis, or prostate cancer death. A survey on dietary, lifestyle and medical factors, including weight, height, physical activity, and sedentary behavior 5 years before surgery and 1 year after, was mailed to the men residing in the U.S. as of 11/07. We classified men as normal body mass index (BMI, &lt;25 kg/m2), overweight (25-29.9), or obese (≥30); as physically active (≥5 hrs/wk leisure time activity) or inactive; and as not sedentary or sedentary (≥20 hrs/wk sitting). Men began contributing time at risk starting 1 year after surgery. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of recurrence comparing a gain in BMI of ≥1 kg/m2 from 5 years before surgery to 1 year after with stable BMI, and obesity 1 year after surgery with normal weight. We adjusted for age, race, family history, preoperative PSA, surgery year, positive surgical margins, and pathologic stage and Gleason sum, and for the BMI gain analysis also for BMI 5 years before surgery. For the analysis of obesity 1 year after surgery, we stratified by physical activity and sedentary behavior. Results: At the time of prostatectomy, men who recurred (n=102) were older (58.1 vs. 56.3 yr, p=0.007), more likely to have poorer pathological tumor characteristics (all p&lt;0.0001), and were less likely to have a family history (14.7% vs. 27.7%, p=0.013) than men who did not recur (n=1235). Five years before surgery, 54% were overweight and 9% were obese. Compared with men who had stable BMI, those whose BMI increased ≥1 kg/m2 from 5 years before surgery to 1 year after had twice the recurrence risk (HR=2.18, 95% CI 1.24-3.81). Men who were obese 1 year after surgery were 1.67 times (95% CI 0.91-3.04) more likely to recur compared with men with normal BMI. Risk of recurrence associated with obesity 1 year after surgery was even stronger in men who were sedentary (HR=2.65, 95% CI 1.09-6.47) or inactive (HR=2.30, 95% CI 0.94-5.62). In contrast, in men who were not sedentary (HR=0.89, 95% CI 0.36-2.21) or who were active (HR=1.09, 95% CI 0.45-2.69), obesity 1 year after surgery was not associated with recurrence. Discussion: Weight gain and obesity, especially in sedentary or inactive men, may contribute to risk of prostate cancer recurrence after prostatectomy.

Citation Format: {Authors}. {Abstract title} [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 101st Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2010 Apr 17-21; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2010;70(8 Suppl):Abstract nr 883.

What are the outcomes of radical prostatectomy for high-risk prostate cancer?

OBJECTIVES

To examine the long-term survival following radical prostatectomy in the population with high-risk prostate cancer. Despite considerable stage migration associated with widespread prostate-specific antigen screening, as many as one-third of incident prostate cancers have high-risk features. These patients are often treated with combined radiation and androgen deprivation therapy, and less is known about the long-term survival in this population after radical prostatectomy (RP).

METHODS

Between 1992 and 2008, 175 men underwent RP by a single surgeon with D'Amico high-risk prostate cancer (clinical stage ≥T2c, biopsy Gleason score 8-10, or prostate-specific antigen >20 ng/mL). In this population, we examined the rates and predictors of biochemical progression, metastatic disease, and cancer-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Among 175 high-risk patients, 63 (36%) had organ-confined disease in the RP specimen. At 10 years, biochemical recurrence-free survival was 68%, metastasis-free survival was 84%, and prostate cancer-specific survival was 92%. The 10-year rate of freedom from any hormonal therapy was 71%. Of the high-risk criteria, a biopsy Gleason score of 8-10 (vs ≤7) was the strongest independent predictor of biochemical recurrence, metastases, and prostate cancer death.

CONCLUSIONS

National data suggest that RP may be underutilized for the management of high-risk clinically localized prostate cancer. Our data suggest that surgical treatment can result in long-term progression-free survival in a subset of carefully selected high-risk men. Further prospective studies are warranted to directly compare the outcomes of RP vs combined radiation and hormonal therapy in high-risk patients.

Does perineural invasion on prostate biopsy predict adverse prostatectomy outcomes?

OBJECTIVE

To determine the relationship between perineural invasion (PNI) on prostate biopsy and radical prostatectomy (RP) outcomes in a contemporary RP series, as there is conflicting evidence on the prognostic significance of PNI in prostate needle biopsy specimens.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

From 2002 to 2007, 1256 men had RP by one surgeon. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the relationship of PNI with pathological tumour features and biochemical progression, respectively, after adjusting for prostate-specific antigen level, clinical stage and biopsy Gleason score. Additional Cox models were used to examine the relationship between nerve-sparing and biochemical progression among men with PNI.

RESULTS

PNI was found in 188 (15%) patients, and was significantly associated with aggressive pathology and biochemical progression. On multivariate analysis, PNI was significantly associated with extraprostatic extension and seminal vesicle invasion (P < 0.001). Biochemical progression occurred in 10.5% of patients with PNI, vs 3.5% of those without PNI (unadjusted hazard ratio 3.12, 95% confidence interval 1.77-5.52, P < 0.001). However, PNI was not a significant independent predictor of biochemical progression on multivariate analysis. Finally, nerve-sparing did not adversely affect biochemical progression even among men with PNI.

CONCLUSION

PNI is an independent risk factor for aggressive pathology features and a non-independent risk factor for biochemical progression after RP. However, bilateral nerve-sparing surgery did not compromise the oncological outcomes for patients with PNI on biopsy.

Small integrin-binding proteins as serum markers for prostate cancer detection

PURPOSE

The small integrin-binding ligand N-linked glycoprotein (SIBLING) gene family includes bone sialoprotein (BSP), dentin matrix protein 1 (DMP1), dentin sialophosphoprotein (DSPP), matrix extracellular phosphoglycoprotein (MEPE), and osteopontin (OPN). Previous studies have separately reported elevated expression of BSP, OPN, or DSPP in prostate tumor paraffin sections. We hypothesized that SIBLINGs may be informative serum markers for subjects with prostate cancer.

METHODS

Expression levels of SIBLINGs in biopsies of normal tissue and tumors from prostate were determined by cDNA array and by immunohistochemical staining with monoclonal antibodies. Competitive ELISAs for measuring total BSP, DSPP, MEPE, and OPN were applied to a test group of 102 subjects with prostate cancer and 110 normal subjects and a validation group of 90 subjects.

RESULTS

BSP, DMP1, DSPP, and OPN exhibited elevated mRNA expression and protein levels in biopsies. BSP, DSPP, and OPN were elevated in serum from prostate cancer subjects, with serum DSPP exhibiting the greatest difference, yielding an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve value of 0.98. Serum BSP and OPN levels were significantly elevated only in late stages, whereas DSPP was significantly elevated at all stages. Optimal serum value cutoff points derived for BSP, OPN, and DSPP were applied as a validation test to a new group of 90 subjects and DSPP yielded a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 100%.

CONCLUSION

Of the SIBLING gene family members, DSPP appears to be a strong candidate for use in serum assays for prostate cancer detection.

Predicting the outcome of prostate biopsy: comparison of a novel logistic regression-based model, the prostate cancer risk calculator, and prostate-specific antigen level alone

OBJECTIVES

To develop a logistic regression-based model to predict prostate cancer biopsy at, and compare its performance to the risk calculator developed by the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT), which was based on age, race, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, a digital rectal examination (DRE), family history, and history of a previous negative biopsy, and to PSA level alone.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analysed the data of 1280 men who had a biopsy while enrolled in a prospective, multicentre clinical trial. Of these, 1108 had all relevant clinical and pathological data available, and no previous diagnosis of prostate cancer. Using the PCPT risk calculator, we calculated the risks of prostate cancer and of high-grade disease (Gleason score > or =7) for each man. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for the risk calculator, PSA level and the novel regression-based model were compared.

RESULTS

Prostate cancer was detected in 394 (35.6%) men, and 155 (14.0%) had Gleason > or =7 disease. For cancer prediction, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the risk calculator was 66.7%, statistically greater than the AUC for PSA level of 61.9% (P < 0.001). For predicting high-grade disease, the AUCs were 74.1% and 70.7% for the risk calculator and PSA level, respectively (P = 0.024). The AUCs increased to 71.2% (P < 0.001) and 78.7% (P = 0.001) for detection and high-grade disease, respectively, with our novel regression-based models.

CONCLUSIONS

ROC analyses show that the PCPT risk calculator modestly improves the performance of PSA level alone in predicting an individual's risk of prostate cancer or high-grade disease on biopsy. This predictive tool might be enhanced by including percentage free PSA and the number of biopsy cores.

Prostate cancer-specific survival following salvage radiotherapy vs observation in men with biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy

CONTEXT

Biochemical disease recurrence after radical prostatectomy often prompts salvage radiotherapy, but no studies to date have had sufficient numbers of patients or follow-up to determine whether radiotherapy improves survival, and if so, the subgroup of men most likely to benefit.

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the relative improvement in prostate cancer-specific survival of salvage radiotherapy vs no therapy after biochemical recurrence following prostatectomy, and to identify subgroups for whom salvage treatment is most beneficial.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

Retrospective analysis of a cohort of 635 US men undergoing prostatectomy from 1982-2004, followed up through December 28, 2007, who experienced biochemical and/or local recurrence and received no salvage treatment (n = 397), salvage radiotherapy alone (n = 160), or salvage radiotherapy combined with hormonal therapy (n = 78).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Prostate cancer-specific survival defined from time of recurrence until death from disease.

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 6 years after recurrence and 9 years after prostatectomy, 116 men (18%) died from prostate cancer, including 89 (22%) who received no salvage treatment, 18 (11%) who received salvage radiotherapy alone, and 9 (12%) who received salvage radiotherapy and hormonal therapy. Salvage radiotherapy alone was associated with a significant 3-fold increase in prostate cancer-specific survival relative to those who received no salvage treatment (hazard ratio [HR], 0.32 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.19-0.54]; P<.001). Addition of hormonal therapy to salvage radiotherapy was not associated with any additional increase in prostate cancer-specific survival (HR, 0.34 [95% CI, 0.17-0.69]; P = .003). The increase in prostate cancer-specific survival associated with salvage radiotherapy was limited to men with a prostate-specific antigen doubling time of less than 6 months and remained after adjustment for pathological stage and other established prognostic factors. Salvage radiotherapy initiated more than 2 years after recurrence provided no significant increase in prostate cancer-specific survival. Men whose prostate-specific antigen level never became undetectable after salvage radiotherapy did not experience a significant increase in prostate cancer-specific survival. Salvage radiotherapy also was associated with a significant increase in overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Salvage radiotherapy administered within 2 years of biochemical recurrence was associated with a significant increase in prostate cancer-specific survival among men with a prostate-specific antigen doubling time of less than 6 months, independent of other prognostic features such as pathological stage or Gleason score. These preliminary findings should be validated in other settings, and ultimately, in a randomized controlled trial.

External validation of University of California, San Francisco, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score

OBJECTIVES

In 2005, the University of California, San Francisco, proposed the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (UCSF-CAPRA) score to predict the risk of biochemical recurrence (BR) after radical prostatectomy. This study provides external validation and a modified version of the model using a large cohort of men treated with radical prostatectomy at a high-volume, tertiary referral center.

METHODS

From 1984 to 2006, 6737 men underwent radical prostatectomy at our institution for clinical Stage T1c-T3a prostate cancer with available follow-up information and no neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy before BR. The BR-free survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by UCSF-CAPRA score using the log-rank statistic. Performance of the UCSF-CAPRA was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and Harrell's concordance (c) index and compared with the Kattan nomogram. The UCSF-CAPRA score and final pathologic findings were assessed by odds ratios.

RESULTS

The 5-year BR-free survival rate was 83.1% overall and decreased from 94.4% for men with a UCSF-CAPRA score of 1 or less to 25.8% for those with a score of 7 or more (P <0.0001). The hazards ratio approximately doubled for each UCSF-CAPRA point until a score of 4, when the hazards ratio increased at a slower rate. The c-index of the UCSF-CAPRA and Kattan nomogram was 0.76 and 0.78, respectively. A greater UCSF-CAPRA score correlated with the final pathologic findings.

CONCLUSIONS

The UCSF-CAPRA performed well in this tertiary, referral-based cohort with a c-index similar to that of the Kattan nomogram. It remains an effective prognostic instrument for predicting the risk of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

Impact of body mass index on biochemical recurrence rates after radical prostatectomy: an analysis utilizing propensity score matching

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the significance of body mass index (BMI) as an independent predictor of biochemical recurrence in men treated with surgery for clinically localized adenocarcinoma of the prostate.

METHODS

A total of 1877 obese patients who underwent radical prostatectomy were matched to overweight and normal-weight patients in a 1:1 ratio on the basis of propensity scores. This resulted in an overall study population of 5631 men. Clinicopathologic characteristics and biochemical recurrence outcomes after surgery were compared between the three BMI cohorts.

RESULTS

Normal-weight patients exhibited lower-grade disease compared with overweight and obese patients (P = 0.021). Lower BMI was also significantly associated with lower rates of positive surgical margins (P <0.001) and extraprostatic extension (P <0.001). Body mass index was not associated with lymph node involvement (P = 0.226) or seminal vesicle invasion (P = 0.142). Body mass index, age, biopsy Gleason score, preoperative prostate-specific antigen level, and clinical tumor stage were independent predictors of biochemical recurrence (P <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Propensity score-based matched analyses indicate that higher BMI is associated with adverse pathologic findings and is a strong independent predictor of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy. These results support the hypothesis that inherent differences may exist in the biological properties of prostate cancer in obese men compared with normal-weight men. Therefore, BMI is an important criterion to consider during subsequent decision making and counseling of patients with prostate cancer.

Effect of DNA methylation on identification of aggressive prostate cancer

OBJECTIVES

Biochemical (prostate-specific antigen) recurrence of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy remains a major problem. Better biomarkers are needed to identify high-risk patients. DNA methylation of promoter regions leads to gene silencing in many cancers. In this study, we assessed the effect of DNA methylation on the identification of recurrent prostate cancer.

METHODS

We studied the methylation status of 15 pre-specified genes using methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction on tissue samples from 151 patients with localized prostate cancer and at least 5 years of follow-up after prostatectomy.

RESULTS

On multivariate logistic regression analysis, a high Gleason score and involvement of the capsule, lymph nodes, seminal vesicles, or surgical margin were associated with an increased risk of biochemical recurrence. Methylation of CDH13 by itself (odds ratio 5.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34 to 22.67; P = 0.02) or combined with methylation of ASC (odds ratio 5.64, 95% CI 1.47 to 21.7; P = 0.01) was also associated with an increased risk of biochemical recurrence. The presence of methylation of ASC and/or CDH13 yielded a sensitivity of 72.3% (95% CI 57% to 84.4%) and negative predictive value of 79% (95% CI 66.8% to 88.3%), similar to the weighted risk of recurrence (determined from the lymph node status, seminal vesicle status, surgical margin status, and postoperative Gleason score), a powerful clinicopathologic prognostic score. However, 34% (95% CI 21% to 49%) of the patients with recurrence were identified by the methylation profile of ASC and CDH13 rather than the weighted risk of recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of our study have shown that methylation of CDH13 alone or combined with methylation of ASC is independently associated with an increased risk of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy even considering the weighted risk of recurrence score. These findings should be validated in an independent, larger cohort of patients with prostate cancer who have undergone radical prostatectomy.

Prostate specific antigen versus prostate specific antigen density as a prognosticator of pathological characteristics and biochemical recurrence following radical prostatectomy

PURPOSE

The usefulness of prostate specific antigen density for predicting pathological stage and biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy has not been well defined. We investigated whether prostate specific antigen density yielded an advantage over total prostate specific antigen for predicting adverse pathological characteristics and disease recurrence following radical prostatectomy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 13,434 men who underwent radical prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer between 1984 and 2006 were included in this study. The study population was stratified by Gleason score (6 or less, 7, and 8 or greater), and the clinical and pathological characteristics of each group were compared. We constructed ROC curves and determined the ROC AUC and concordance index to specifically investigate the accuracy of prostate specific antigen and prostate specific antigen density for predicting pathological stage and biochemical recurrence.

RESULTS

Prostate specific antigen density was better than prostate specific antigen for predicting extraprostatic extension and biochemical-free recurrence in patients with a biopsy Gleason score of 6 or less (each p <0.001). In patients with a biopsy Gleason score of 7 prostate specific antigen was more predictive than prostate specific antigen density for seminal vesicle involvement (p <0.001), lymph node involvement (p = 0.017) and biochemical-free recurrence (p <0.001). In men with a biopsy Gleason score of 8 or greater there was no statistical difference between prostate specific antigen and prostate specific antigen density in terms of prognostic value for pathological or clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Prostate specific antigen density is highly associated with pathological stage and biochemical-free survival following radical prostatectomy. In lower grade prostate cancers prostate specific antigen density is significantly more accurate for predicting extraprostatic extension and biochemical-free recurrence compared to total prostate specific antigen. It should be considered when counseling patients on outcomes following radical prostatectomy.

Progression after radical prostatectomy for men in their thirties compared to older men

OBJECTIVE

To assess the biochemical outcome after radical prostatectomy (RP) specifically for men aged 30-39 years, as previous studies suggest that prostate cancer in young men might be more aggressive.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

From a large (15 899) database of RPs (1975-2007) we identified 42 men aged 30-39, 893 aged 40-49, 4085 aged 50-59, 3766 aged 60-69, and 182 men aged > or =70 years old. The clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes were compared between men aged 30-39 years and older men.

RESULTS

Among the men in their thirties, 81% had organ-confined disease in the RP specimen, vs 62% of men aged > or =40 years. At a mean follow-up of 5 years, there was biochemical progression in 4.8% of men in their thirties and 16.1% of men age > or =40 years (P = 0.055). The corresponding 5-year biochemical progression-free survival estimates were 95% for men in their thirties and 83% for men aged > or =40 years (P = 0.045). On multivariate analysis, increasing age was a significant independent predictor of biochemical progression.

CONCLUSION

Contrary to earlier reports, in the present study men in their thirties did not have more aggressive disease. Instead, they had more favourable pathological features and progression-free survival rates than their older counterparts. After controlling for other prognostic variables on multivariate analysis, being in the fourth decade was independently associated with a lower risk of biochemical progression. These results suggest that early aggressive treatment for these patients with a long life-expectancy is associated with favourable long-term biochemical outcomes.

The natural history of men treated with deferred androgen deprivation therapy in whom metastatic prostate cancer developed following radical prostatectomy

PURPOSE

We report on the natural history and factors influencing the prognosis of a cohort of hormone naïve, prostate specific antigen era patients in whom metastatic prostate cancer developed after radical prostatectomy who were followed closely and treated with deferred androgen deprivation therapy at the time of metastasis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 3,096 men underwent radical prostatectomy performed by a single surgeon at Johns Hopkins Hospital between 1987 and 2005. Of these men 422 had prostate specific antigen failure. Distant metastasis developed in 123 patients, of whom 91 with complete data formed the study cohort initially treated during the prostate specific antigen era (1987 to 2005) and receiving androgen deprivation therapy after documented metastasis. A total of 41 men died of prostate cancer. Median survival times were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Prognostic impact was estimated as the hazard ratio derived from the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Median followup from radical prostatectomy was 120 months (range 24 to 216). Kaplan-Meier median (range) times to failure were 24 months (12 to 144) from radical prostatectomy to prostate specific antigen failure, 36 months (0 to 132) from prostate specific antigen failure to metastasis, 84 months (12 to 180) from metastasis to death and 168 months (24 to 216) from radical prostatectomy to death. Statistically significant univariate risk factors for prostate cancer specific mortality at the time of metastasis were pain at diagnosis of metastases (p = 0.002), time from radical prostatectomy to metastasis (p = 0.024) and prostate specific antigen doubling time less than 3 months during the 24 months before metastasis (p = 0.016). Multivariable analysis demonstrated independent predictors of prostate cancer specific mortality at the time of metastasis, namely pain (HR 3.5, p = 0.003) and prostate specific antigen doubling time less than 3 months (HR 3.4, p = 0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

Men treated with deferred androgen deprivation therapy for the development of metastasis after radical prostatectomy may have a long life span, 169 months after radical prostatectomy (range 24 to 216). The presence of pain and short prostate specific antigen doubling time predicted an unfavorable outcome.

Impact of patient age on biochemical recurrence rates following radical prostatectomy

PURPOSE

Increased age has been suggested to predict worse clinical outcomes in patients with prostate cancer. An explanation that was proposed for this observation is that it is due to inherent differences in the biological properties of prostate cancer in older men. Stage migration, prostate specific antigen and prostate biopsy pathology are variables that may confound the interpretation of age as an independent prognosticator of outcomes following radical prostatectomy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Matched pairs analysis was performed comparing the 3 age cohorts 46 to 55, 56 to 65 and older than 65 years to a cohort of 435 patients who were 45 years or younger based on propensity scores calculated with all known preoperative variables. Postoperative clinical and pathological characteristics were compared among the 4 matched age cohorts. A Cox hazards model was used to compare time to prostate specific antigen recurrence across the different age cohorts and the actuarial risk of recurrence was calculated using Kaplan-Meier and log rank survivor analyses.

RESULTS

Younger patients showed lower grade disease (p <0.001), and lower rates of positive surgical margin rates (p = 0.035) and extraprostatic extension (p <0.001) but they did not have higher rates of lymph node involvement (p = 0.85) or seminal vesicle invasion (p = 0.56). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed no significant differences in biochemical recurrence across the age cohorts (log rank 0.38). On multivariate analysis prostatectomy Gleason score, pathological stage, positive surgical margins (each p <0.001) and preoperative prostate specific antigen (p = 0.04) were independently predictive of biochemical recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

We report that increased age is not associated with worse biochemical outcomes following radical prostatectomy and it should not be considered an independent prognosticator for disease recurrence. Rather, age is a surrogate for known predictors of biochemical recurrence following surgery.

Updated nomogram to predict pathologic stage of prostate cancer given prostate-specific antigen level, clinical stage, and biopsy Gleason score (Partin tables) based on cases from 2000 to 2005

OBJECTIVES

To update the 2001 "Partin tables" with a contemporary patient cohort and revised variable categorization, correcting for the effects of stage migration.

METHODS

We analyzed 5730 men treated with prostatectomy (without neoadjuvant therapy) between 2000 and 2005 at the Johns Hopkins Hospital. Average age was 57 years. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the probability of organ-confined disease, extraprostatic extension, seminal vesicle involvement, or lymph node involvement. Predictor variables included preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level (0 to 2.5, 2.6 to 4.0, 4.1 to 6.0, 6.1 to 10.0, and greater than 10.0 ng/mL), clinical stage (T1c, T2a, and T2b/T2c), and biopsy Gleason score (5 to 6, 3 + 4 = 7, 4 + 3 = 7, or 8 to 10). Bootstrap resampling was used to generate 95% confidence intervals for predicted probabilities.

RESULTS

Seventy-seven percent of patients had T1c, 76% had Gleason score 5 to 6, 80% had a PSA level between 2.5 and 10.0 ng/mL, and 73% had organ-confined disease. Nomograms were developed for the predicted probability of pathologically organ-confined disease, extraprostatic extension, seminal vesicle invasion, or lymph node involvement. The risk of non-organ-confined disease increased with increases in any individual prognostic factor. The dramatic decrease in clinical stage T2c compared with the patient series used in the previous models resulted in T2b and T2c being combined as a single predictor in the nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

These updated "Partin tables" were generated to reflect trends in presentation and pathologic stage for men diagnosed with clinically localized prostate cancer at our institution. Clinicians and patients can use these nomograms to help make important decisions regarding management of prostate cancer.

Death in patients with recurrent prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy: prostate-specific antigen doubling time subgroups and their associated contributions to all-cause mortality

PURPOSE

Among patients with biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy, we found previously that postoperative prostate-specific antigen doubling time (PSADT) was associated with risk of prostate cancer death. However, given the small number of patients in the highest risk PSADT subgroup, it is unclear which PSADT subgroups contribute the greatest to prostate cancer-specific death and how this influences all-cause mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study was a retrospective analysis of 379 patients treated with radical prostatectomy between 1982 and 2000 who had a biochemical recurrence and PSADT data available. Mean and median follow-up after surgery was 11.4 (standard deviation, 5.4) and 11.0 years, respectively (range, 1.6 to 23.0 years).

RESULTS

Shorter PSADT was significantly associated with prostate cancer-specific and all-cause mortality (P < .001). Although patients with a PSADT less than 3 months were at the greatest risk of death, because of the limited number of patients in this group, they accounted for only 13% of prostate cancer deaths at 15 years after biochemical recurrence, whereas patients with an intermediate PSADT (3.0 to 8.9 months) accounted for 58% of all prostate cancer deaths. Among patients with a PSADT less than 15 months, prostate cancer accounted for 90% of all deaths. Only patients in the slowest PSADT subgroup (> or = 15 months) had a greater risk of competing-causes mortality compared with that from prostate cancer.

CONCLUSION

Among a select cohort of young, healthy patients with PSA recurrence after radical prostatectomy and a PSADT less than 15 months, prostate cancer accounted for an estimated 90% of all deaths by 15 years after recurrence. The majority of prostate cancer deaths occurred among patients with an intermediate PSADT (3.0 to 8.9 months).

Radical prostatectomy for clinical stage T3a disease

BACKGROUND

Men with clinical stage T3a disease are at high risk and are often encouraged to undergo radiation therapy with concomitant hormonal therapy. The long-term outcomes among men treated with radical prostatectomy for clinical stage T3a disease were examined.

METHODS

Among 3397 men treated by radical prostatectomy by 1 surgeon between 1987 and 2003, 62 (1.8%) men were identified who had clinical stage T3a disease. Among the 56 men not treated with neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapies before prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence, the long-term outcomes of PSA-free survival, metastasis-free survival, and prostate cancer specific survival were examined. Median and mean follow-up after surgery were 10.3 and 13 years, respectively (range, 1-17).

RESULTS

Ninety-one percent of men in this group had pathological T3 disease. PSA-free survival at 15 years after surgery was 49%. Metastasis-free survival and cause-specific survival at 15 years after surgery were 73% and 84%, respectively. Among men with a PSA recurrence, 46% received secondary therapy before metastasis. The only preoperative or pathological feature that predicted risk of prostate cancer death was lymph node metastasis (hazard ratio [HR]: 9.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-80.02, P = .044). Among the 28 men with a PSA recurrence, PSA doubling time (PSADT) data were available for 23, of which 11 (48%) has a PSADT >/=9 months. No patient with a PSADT >/=9 months died of prostate cancer. A PSADT <9 months was significantly associated with increased risk of prostate cancer death (log-rank, P = .004).

CONCLUSIONS

In a select cohort of men with clinical stage T3a disease, radical prostatectomy alone provides long-term cancer control in about half of the men and results in a prostate cancer-specific survival of 84%. Among men with a PSA recurrence, PSADT at the time of recurrence is a useful determinant of risk of prostate cancer death.