A spatially explicit model of landscape pesticide exposure to bees: Development, exploration, and evaluation

Pesticides represent one of the greatest threats to bees and other beneficial insects in agricultural landscapes. Potential exposure is generated through compound- and crop-specific patterns of pesticide use over space and time and unique degradation behavior among compounds. Realized exposure develops through bees foraging from their nests across the spatiotemporal mosaic of floral resources and associated pesticides throughout the landscape. Despite the recognized importance of a landscape-wide approach to assessing exposure, we lack a sufficiently-evaluated predictive framework to inform mitigation decisions and environmental risk assessment for bees. We address this gap by developing a bee pesticide exposure model that incorporates spatiotemporal pesticide use patterns, estimated rates of pesticide degradation, floral resource dynamics across habitats, and bee foraging movements. We parameterized the model with pesticide use data from a public database containing crop-field- and date-specific records of uses throughout our study region over an entire year. We evaluate the model performance in predicting bee pesticide exposure using a dataset of pesticide residues in pollens gathered by bumble bees (Bombus vosnesenskii) returning to colonies across 14 spatially independent landscapes in Northern California. We applied alternative model formulations of pesticide accumulation and degradation, floral resource seasonality, and bee foraging behavior to evaluate different levels of detail for predicting observed pesticide exposure. Our best model explained 73 % of observed variation in pesticide exposure of bumble bee colonies, with generally positive correlations for the dominant compounds. Timing and location of pesticide use were integral, but more detailed parameterizations of pesticide degradation, floral resources, and bee foraging improved the predictions little if at all. Our results suggest that this approach to predict bees' pesticide exposure has value in extending from the local field scale to the landscape in environmental risk assessment and for exploring mitigation options to support bees in agricultural landscapes.

Marginal value analysis reveals shifting importance of migration habitat for waterfowl under a changing climate

Migratory waterfowl are an important resource for consumptive and non-consumptive users alike and provide tremendous economic value in North America. These birds rely on a complex matrix of public and private land for forage and roosting during migration and wintering periods, and substantial conservation effort focuses on increasing the amount and quality of target habitat. Yet, the value of habitat is a function not only of a site's resources but also of its geographic position and weather. To quantify this value, we used a continental-scale energetics-based model of daily dabbling duck movement to assess the marginal value of lands across the contiguous United States during the non-breeding period (September to May). We examined effects of eliminating each habitat node (32 × 32 km) in both a particularly cold and a particularly warm winter, asking which nodes had the largest effect on survival. The marginal value of habitat nodes for migrating dabbling ducks was a function of forage and roosting habitat but, more importantly, of geography (especially latitude and region). Irrespective of weather, nodes in the Southeast, central East Coast, and California made the largest positive contributions to survival. Conversely, nodes in the Midwest, Northeast, Florida, and the Pacific Northwest had consistent negative effects. Effects (positive and negative) of more northerly nodes occurred in late fall or early spring when climate was often severe and was most variable. Importance and effects of many nodes varied considerably between a cold and a warm winter. Much of the Midwest and central Great Plains benefited duck survival in a warm winter, and projected future warming may improve the value of lands in these regions, including many National Wildlife Refuges, for migrating dabbling ducks. Our results highlight the geographic variability in habitat value, as well as shifts that may occur in these values due to climate change.

Effects of weather variation on waterfowl migration: Lessons from a continental‐scale generalizable avian movement and energetics model

We developed a continental energetics‐based model of daily mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) movement during the non‐breeding period (September to May) to predict year‐specific migration and overwinter occurrence. The model approximates movements and stopovers as functions of metabolism and weather, in terms of temperature and frozen precipitation (i.e., snow). The model is a Markov process operating at the population level and is parameterized through a review of literature. We applied the model to 62 years of daily weather data for the non‐breeding period. The average proportion of available habitat decreased as weather severity increased, with mortality decreasing as the proportion of available habitat increased. The most commonly used locations during the course of the non‐breeding period were generally consistent across years, with the most inter‐annual variation present in the overwintering area. Our model revealed that the distribution of mallards on the landscape changed more dramatically when the variation in daily available habitat was greater. The main routes for avian migration in North America were predicted by our simulations: the Atlantic, Mississippi, Central, and Pacific flyways. Our model predicted an average of 77.4% survivorship for the non‐breeding period across all years (range = 76.4%–78.4%), with lowest survivorship during autumn (90.5 ± 1.4%), intermediate survivorship in winter (91.8 ± 0.7%), and greatest survivorship in spring (93.6 ± 1.1%). We provide the parameters necessary for exploration within and among other taxa to leverage the generalizability of this migration model to a broader expanse of bird species, and across a range of climate change and land use/land cover change scenarios.

Local adaptation and rapid evolution of aphids in response to genetic interactions with their cottonwood hosts

Several studies have demonstrated the ecological consequences of genetic variation within a single plant species. For example, these studies show that individual plant genotypes support unique composition of the plants' associated arthropod community. By contrast, fewer studies have explored how plant genetic variation may influence evolutionary dynamics in the plant's associated species. Here, we examine how aphids respond evolutionarily to genetic variation in their host plant. We conducted two experiments to examine local adaptation and rapid evolution of the free‐feeding aphid Chaitophorus populicola across genetic variants of its host plant, Populus angustifolia. To test for local adaptation, we collected tree cuttings and aphid colonies from three sites along an elevation/climate gradient and conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment. In general, home aphids (aphids transplanted onto trees from the same site) produced 1.7–3.4 times as many offspring as foreign aphids (aphids transplanted onto trees from different sites). To test for rapid evolution, we used 4 clonally replicated aphid genotypes and transplanted each onto 5 clonally replicated P. angustifolia genotypes. Each tree genotype started with the same aphid genotype composition. After 21 days (~two aphid generations), aphid genotype composition changed (i.e., aphids evolved) and some tree genotypes supported unique evolutionary trajectories of aphids. These results suggest that plant evolution in response to human perturbation, such as climate change and invasive species, will also result in evolutionary responses in strongly interacting species that could cascade to affect whole communities.

County-level analysis reveals a rapidly shifting landscape of insecticide hazard to honey bees (Apis mellifera) on US farmland

Each year, millions of kilograms of insecticides are applied to crops in the US. While insecticide use supports food, fuel, and fiber production, it can also threaten non-target organisms, a concern underscored by mounting evidence of widespread decline of pollinator populations. Here, we integrate several public datasets to generate county-level annual estimates of total 'bee toxic load' (honey bee lethal doses) for insecticides applied in the US between 1997-2012, calculated separately for oral and contact toxicity. To explore the underlying components of the observed changes, we divide bee toxic load into extent (area treated) and intensity (application rate x potency). We show that while contact-based bee toxic load remained relatively steady, oral-based bee toxic load increased roughly 9-fold, with reductions in application rate outweighed by disproportionate increases in potency (toxicity/kg) and extent. This pattern varied markedly by region, with the greatest increase seen in Heartland (121-fold increase), likely driven by use of neonicotinoid seed treatments in corn and soybean. In this "potency paradox", farmland in the central US has become more hazardous to bees despite lower volumes of insecticides applied, raising concerns about insect conservation and highlighting the importance of integrative approaches to pesticide use monitoring.

Pesticides and pollinators: A socioecological synthesis

The relationship between pesticides and pollinators, while attracting no shortage of attention from scientists, regulators, and the public, has proven resistant to scientific synthesis and fractious in matters of policy and public opinion. This is in part because the issue has been approached in a compartmentalized and intradisciplinary way, such that evaluations of organismal pesticide effects remain largely disjoint from their upstream drivers and downstream consequences. Here, we present a socioecological framework designed to synthesize the pesticide-pollinator system and inform future scholarship and action. Our framework consists of three interlocking domains-pesticide use, pesticide exposure, and pesticide effects-each consisting of causally linked patterns, processes, and states. We elaborate each of these domains and their linkages, reviewing relevant literature and providing empirical case studies. We then propose guidelines for future pesticide-pollinator scholarship and action agenda aimed at strengthening knowledge in neglected domains and integrating knowledge across domains to provide decision support for stakeholders and policymakers. Specifically, we emphasize (1) stakeholder engagement, (2) mechanistic study of pesticide exposure, (3) understanding the propagation of pesticide effects across levels of organization, and (4) full-cost accounting of the externalities of pesticide use and regulation. Addressing these items will require transdisciplinary collaborations within and beyond the scientific community, including the expertise of farmers, agrochemical developers, and policymakers in an extended peer community.

Ecology and Economics of Using Native Managed Bees for Almond Pollination

Native managed bees can improve crop pollination, but a general framework for evaluating the associated economic costs and benefits has not been developed. We conducted a cost-benefit analysis to assess how managing blue orchard bees (Osmia lignaria Say [Hymenoptera: Megachildae]) alongside honey bees (Apis mellifera Linnaeus [Hymenoptera: Apidae]) can affect profits for almond growers in California. Specifically, we studied how adjusting three strategies can influence profits: (1) number of released O. lignaria bees, (2) density of artificial nest boxes, and (3) number of nest cavities (tubes) per box. We developed an ecological model for the effects of pollinator activity on almond yields, validated the model with published data, and then estimated changes in profits for different management strategies. Our model shows that almond yields increase with O. lignaria foraging density, even where honey bees are already in use. Our cost-benefit analysis shows that profit ranged from -US$1,800 to US$2,800/acre given different combinations of the three strategies. Adding nest boxes had the greatest effect; we predict an increase in profit between low and high nest box density strategies (2.5 and 10 boxes/acre). In fact, the number of released bees and the availability of nest tubes had relatively small effects in the high nest box density strategies. This suggests that growers could improve profits by simply adding more nest boxes with moderate number of tubes in each. Our approach can support grower decisions regarding integrated crop pollination and highlight the importance of a comprehensive ecological economic framework for assessing these decisions.

A generalizable energetics-based model of avian migration to facilitate continental-scale waterbird conservation

Conserving migratory birds is made especially difficult because of movement among spatially disparate locations across the annual cycle. In light of challenges presented by the scale and ecology of migratory birds, successful conservation requires integrating objectives, management, and monitoring across scales, from local management units to ecoregional and flyway administrative boundaries. We present an integrated approach using a spatially explicit energetic-based mechanistic bird migration model useful to conservation decision-making across disparate scales and locations. This model moves a Mallard-like bird (Anas platyrhynchos), through spring and fall migration as a function of caloric gains and losses across a continental-scale energy landscape. We predicted with this model that fall migration, where birds moved from breeding to wintering habitat, took a mean of 27.5 d of flight with a mean seasonal survivorship of 90.5% (95% Cl = 89.2%, 91.9%), whereas spring migration took a mean of 23.5 d of flight with mean seasonal survivorship of 93.6% (95% CI = 92.5%, 94.7%). Sensitivity analyses suggested that survival during migration was sensitive to flight speed, flight cost, the amount of energy the animal could carry, and the spatial pattern of energy availability, but generally insensitive to total energy availability per se. Nevertheless, continental patterns in the bird-use days occurred principally in relation to wetland cover and agricultural habitat in the fall. Bird-use days were highest in both spring and fall in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley and along the coast and near-shore environments of South Carolina. Spatial sensitivity analyses suggested that locations nearer to migratory endpoints were less important to survivorship; for instance, removing energy from a 1036 km2 stopover site at a time from the Atlantic Flyway suggested coastal areas between New Jersey and North Carolina, including the Chesapeake Bay and the North Carolina piedmont, are essential locations for efficient migration and increasing survivorship during spring migration but not locations in Ontario and Massachusetts. This sort of spatially explicit information may allow decision-makers to prioritize their conservation actions toward locations most influential to migratory success. Thus, this mechanistic model of avian migration provides a decision-analytic medium integrating the potential consequences of local actions to flyway-scale phenomena.

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS.

A retrospective analysis of factors correlated to chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) respiratory health at Gombe National Park, Tanzania

Infectious disease and other health hazards have been hypothesized to pose serious threats to the persistence of wild ape populations. Respiratory disease outbreaks have been shown to be of particular concern for several wild chimpanzee study sites, leading managers, and researchers to hypothesize that diseases originating from and/or spread by humans pose a substantial risk to the long-term survival of chimpanzee populations. The total chimpanzee population in Gombe National Park, Tanzania, has declined from 120-150 in the 1960s to about 100 by the end of 2007, with death associated with observable signs of disease as the leading cause of mortality. We used a historical data set collected from 1979 to 1987 to investigate the baseline rates of respiratory illness in chimpanzees at Gombe National Park, Tanzania, and to analyze the impact of human-related factors (e.g., banana feeding, visits to staff quarters) and non-human-related factors (e.g., sociality, season) on chimpanzee respiratory illness rates. We found that season and banana feeding were the most significant predictors of respiratory health clinical signs during this time period. We discuss these results in the context of management options for the reduction of disease risk and the importance of long-term observational data for conservation.

Preliminary assessment of methods used to demonstrate nut-cracking behavior to five captive chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes)

Chimpanzees acquire nut-cracking skills by observation and trial and error. Studies of captive chimpanzees have shown the effectiveness of a skilled demonstrator. We examined the effectiveness of 3 live demonstration forms from which subjects could learn nut-cracking skills: a video of proficient conspecifics, human demonstration and the presence of a skilled conspecific performing the task. A male subject did not learn to crack open nuts after viewing a video of proficient conspecifics but quickly learned the skill following a demonstration by a human facilitator. Subsequently, 4 female chimpanzees were given the opportunity to learn the skill from the now proficient male, as well as from a video and human demonstration, but failed to do so.

Interactions between zoo-housed great apes and local wildlife

Although there are published reports of wild chimpanzees, bonobos, and orangutans hunting and consuming vertebrate prey, data pertaining to captive apes remain sparse. In this survey-based study, we evaluate the prevalence and nature of interactions between captive great apes and various indigenous wildlife species that range into their enclosures in North America. Our hypotheses were threefold: (a) facilities housing chimpanzees will report the most frequent and most aggressive interactions with local wildlife; (b) facilities housing orangutans and bonobos will report intermediate frequencies of these interactions with low levels of aggression and killing; and (c) facilities housing gorillas will report the lowest frequency of interactions and no reports of killing local wildlife. Chimpanzees and bonobos demonstrated the most aggressive behavior toward wildlife, which matched our predictions for chimpanzees, but not bonobos. This fits well with expectations for chimpanzees based on their natural history of hunting and consuming prey in wild settings, and also supports new field data on bonobos. Captive gorillas and orangutans were reported to be much less likely to chase, catch and kill wildlife than chimpanzees and bonobos. Gorillas were the least likely to engage in aggressive interactions with local wildlife, matching our predictions based on natural history. However unlike wild gorillas, captive gorillas were reported to kill (and in one case, eat) local wildlife. These results suggest that some behavioral patterns seen in captive groups of apes may be useful for modeling corresponding activities in the wild that may not be as easily observed and quantified. Furthermore, the data highlight the potential for disease transmission in some captive settings, and we outline the associated implications for ape health and safety.

Causes of death in the Kasekela chimpanzees of Gombe National Park, Tanzania

Understanding the rates and causes of mortality in wild chimpanzee populations has important implications for a variety of fields, including wildlife conservation and human evolution. Because chimpanzees are long-lived, accurate mortality data requires very long-term studies. Here, we analyze 47 years of data on the Kasekela community in Gombe National Park. Community size fluctuated between 38 and 60, containing 60 individuals in 2006. From records on 220 chimpanzees and 130 deaths, we found that the most important cause of mortality in the Kasekela community was illness (58% of deaths with known cause), followed by intraspecific aggression (20% of deaths with known cause). Previous studies at other sites also found that illness was the primary cause of mortality and that some epidemic disease could be traced to humans. As at other study sites, most deaths due to illness occurred during epidemics, and the most common category of disease was respiratory. Intraspecific lethal aggression occurred within the community, including the killing of infants by both males and females, and among adult males during the course of dominance-related aggression. Aggression between communities resulted in the deaths of at least five adult males and two adult females in the Kasekela and Kahama communities. The frequency of intercommunity violence appears to vary considerably among sites and over time. Intercommunity lethal aggression involving the Kasekela community was observed most frequently during two periods. Other less common causes of death included injury, loss of mother, maternal disability, and poaching.

Genetic structure of a foundation species: scaling community phenotypes from the individual to the region

Understanding the local and regional patterns of species distributions has been a major goal of ecological and evolutionary research. The notion that these patterns can be understood through simple quantitative rules is attractive, but while numerous scaling laws exist (e.g., metabolic, fractals), we are aware of no studies that have placed individual traits and community structure together within a genetics based scaling framework. We document the potential for a genetic basis to the scaling of ecological communities, largely based upon our long-term studies of poplars (Populus spp.). The genetic structure and diversity of these foundation species affects riparian ecosystems and determines a much larger community of dependent organisms. Three examples illustrate these ideas. First, there is a strong genetic basis to phytochemistry and tree architecture (both above- and belowground), which can affect diverse organisms and ecosystem processes. Second, empirical studies in the wild show that the local patterns of genetics based community structure scale up to western North America. At multiple spatial scales the arthropod community phenotype is related to the genetic distance among plants that these arthropods depend upon for survival. Third, we suggest that the familiar species-area curve, in which species richness is a function of area, is also a function of genetic diversity. We find that arthropod species richness is closely correlated with the genetic marker diversity and trait variance suggesting a genetic component to these curves. Finally, we discuss how genetic variation can interact with environmental variation to affect community attributes across geographic scales along with conservation implications.

Using retrospective health data from the Gombe chimpanzee study to inform future monitoring efforts

Disease outbreaks, either in isolation or in concert with other risk factors, can pose serious threats to the long-term persistence of mammal populations, and these risks become elevated as population size decreases and/or population isolation increases. Many chimpanzee study sites are increasingly isolated by loss of habitat due to human encroachment, and managers of parks that contain chimpanzees perceive that disease outbreaks have been and continue to be significant causes of mortality for chimpanzees. Major epidemics at Gombe National Park include suspected polio in 1966; respiratory diseases in 1968, 1987, 1996, 2000, and 2002; and sarcoptic mange in 1997. These outbreaks have led park managers and researchers working in Gombe to conclude that disease poses a substantial risk to the long-term survival of Gombe's chimpanzee population. We surveyed behavioral data records spanning 44 years for health-related data and found a combination of standardized and nonstandardized data for the entire period. Here we present the types of data found during the survey, discuss the usefulness of these data in the context of risk assessment, and describe how our current monitoring effort at Gombe was designed based on our findings.

A framework for community and ecosystem genetics: from genes to ecosystems

Can heritable traits in a single species affect an entire ecosystem? Recent studies show that such traits in a common tree have predictable effects on community structure and ecosystem processes. Because these 'community and ecosystem phenotypes' have a genetic basis and are heritable, we can begin to apply the principles of population and quantitative genetics to place the study of complex communities and ecosystems within an evolutionary framework. This framework could allow us to understand, for the first time, the genetic basis of ecosystem processes, and the effect of such phenomena as climate change and introduced transgenic organisms on entire communities.

Community heritability measures the evolutionary consequences of indirect genetic effects on community structure

The evolutionary analysis of community organization is considered a major frontier in biology. Nevertheless, current explanations for community structure exclude the effects of genes and selection at levels above the individual. Here, we demonstrate a genetic basis for community structure, arising from the fitness consequences of genetic interactions among species (i.e., interspecific indirect genetic effects or IIGEs). Using simulated and natural communities of arthropods inhabiting North American cottonwoods (Populus), we show that when species comprising ecological communities are summarized using a multivariate statistical method, nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS), the resulting univariate scores can be analyzed using standard techniques for estimating the heritability of quantitative traits. Our estimates of the broad-sense heritability of arthropod communities on known genotypes of cottonwood trees in common gardens explained 56-63% of the total variation in community phenotype. To justify and help interpret our empirical approach, we modeled synthetic communities in which the number, intensity, and fitness consequences of the genetic interactions among species comprising the community were explicitly known. Results from the model suggest that our empirical estimates of broad-sense community heritability arise from heritable variation in a host tree trait and the fitness consequences of IGEs that extend from tree trait to arthropods. When arthropod traits are heritable, interspecific IGEs cause species interactions to change, and community evolution occurs. Our results have implications for establishing the genetic foundations of communities and ecosystems.

Using retrospective health data from the Gombe chimpanzee study to inform future monitoring efforts

Disease outbreaks, either in isolation or in concert with other risk factors, can pose serious threats to the long-term persistence of mammal populations, and these risks become elevated as population size decreases and/or population isolation increases. Many chimpanzee study sites are increasingly isolated by loss of habitat due to human encroachment, and managers of parks that contain chimpanzees perceive that disease outbreaks have been and continue to be significant causes of mortality for chimpanzees. Major epidemics at Gombe National Park include suspected polio in 1966; respiratory diseases in 1968, 1987, 1996, 2000, and 2002; and sarcoptic mange in 1997. These outbreaks have led park managers and researchers working in Gombe to conclude that disease poses a substantial risk to the long-term survival of Gombe's chimpanzee population. We surveyed behavioral data records spanning 44 years for health-related data and found a combination of standardized and nonstandardized data for the entire period. Here we present the types of data found during the survey, discuss the usefulness of these data in the context of risk assessment, and describe how our current monitoring effort at Gombe was designed based on our findings.