Predictors of Mortality among Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 during the First Wave in India: A Multisite Case-Control Study

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 disease (COVID-19) has caused more than 6 million deaths globally. Understanding predictors of mortality will help in prioritizing patient care and preventive approaches. This was a multicentric, unmatched, hospital-based case-control study conducted in nine teaching hospitals in India. Cases were microbiologically confirmed COVID-19 patients who died in the hospital during the period of study and controls were microbiologically confirmed COVID-19 patients who were discharged from the same hospital after recovery. Cases were recruited sequentially from March 2020 until December-March 2021. All information regarding cases and controls was extracted retrospectively from the medical records of patients by trained physicians. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was done to assess the association between various predictor variables and deaths due to COVID-19. A total of 2,431 patients (1,137 cases and 1,294 controls) were included in the study. The mean age of patients was 52.8 years (SD: 16.5 years), and 32.1% were females. Breathlessness was the most common symptom at the time of admission (53.2%). Increasing age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 46-59 years, 3.4 [95% CI: 1.5-7.7]; 60-74 years, 4.1 [95% CI: 1.7-9.5]; and ≥ 75 years, 11.0 [95% CI: 4.0-30.6]); preexisting diabetes mellitus (aOR: 1.9 [95% CI: 1.2-2.9]); malignancy (aOR: 3.1 [95% CI: 1.3-7.8]); pulmonary tuberculosis (aOR: 3.3 [95% CI: 1.2-8.8]); breathlessness at the time of admission (aOR: 2.2 [95% CI: 1.4-3.5]); high quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score at the time of admission (aOR: 5.6 [95% CI: 2.7-11.4]); and oxygen saturation < 94% at the time of admission (aOR: 2.5 [95% CI: 1.6-3.9]) were associated with mortality due to COVID-19. These results can be used to prioritize patients who are at increased risk of death and to rationalize therapy to reduce mortality due to COVID-19.

Maximum tolerable dose of cyclophosphamide and azathioprine in Pakistani patients with primary renal disease

OBJECTIVE

The immunosuppressive regimens, at present, mainly rely on western guidelines that were derived from studies conducted in western populations. No such study exists for South Asian population, which is home to almost two billion people different in both genetics and environment from west. Locally derived thresholds for side effects markedly different from western figures may warrant re-adjustment of current local immunosuppressive regimens that are at present based largely on western guidelines. In order to define optimum dose for Cyclophosphamide (CYC) and Azathioprine (AZA) based immunosuppressive therapy, we conducted this study to find out maximum tolerable doses of azathioprine (AZA) and cyclophosphamide (CYC) beyond which neutropenia and thrombocytepenia are most likely to occur in patients with primary renal pathology.

METHOD

Patients with systemic vasculitis and idiopathic glomerulonephritis who were on CYC and AZA were identified through review of medical records at a tertiary care hospital in Pakistan (The Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi). Patients were categorized under three principal diagnosis i.e. systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), primary (idiopathic) glomerulonephritis (GN) and Wegener's granulomatosis (WG). The Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) was used to calculate the maximum tolerable dose for both CYC and AZA.

RESULTS

We identified 94 patients aged 6-82 years (median 44.5 years) with primary renal disease (Wegener's granulomatosis n=13, Systemic lupus erythematosis n=62 and idiopathic glomerulonephritis n=19) who received CYC or AZA. Of these 94 patients, 36.2% (n=34) received CYC and 63.8% (n=60) received AZA. The mean dose of CYC was 1.54 +/- 0.50 mg/kg of body weight (range: 0.77-2.93). The mean dose of AZA was 1.64 +/- 0.59 mg/kg of body weight (range: 0.47-2.97). The maximum tolerable doses calculated for CYC and AZA were 1.25 mg/kg and 1.30 mg/kg of body weight respectively. The maximum tolerable dose for CYC and AZA among males could not be calculated, because of insufficient number of patients who developed neutropenia and thrombocytopenia. The maximum tolerable doses for CYC and AZA among females were 1.34 mg/kg and 1.03 mg/kg of body weight respectively. Also we found out that AZA was relatively more likely to cause neutropenia and thrombocytopenia (p=0.07).

CONCLUSION

We thereby recommend that CYC should be initiated at a dose no more than 1 mg/kg of body weight and AZA at an initial dose of 0.75-1.0 mg/kg of body weight. The dose may be adjusted later on the basis of clinical response and laboratory reports.