Novel nomograms for survival and progression in HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal cancer: a population-based study of 1,542 consecutive patients

BACKGROUND

No study has combined tumour and clinical covariates for survival to construct an individual risk-profile for overall survival (OS), time to progression (TTP), and survival after progression (SAP) in patients with HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Based on the largest-to-date, unselected, population-based cohort of patients diagnosed with OPSCC, we performed a comprehensive analysis of long-term OS, TTP, and SAP and constructed novel nomograms to evaluate patients' prognoses.

RESULTS

At a median follow-up of 4.0 years (range: 0.8-15.8 yrs.), 690 deaths were recorded. The 5-year OS, TTP, and SAP for the HPV+/p16+ subgroup were 77%, 82%, and 33, vs. 30%, 66%, and 6% for the HPV-/p16- group (P < 0.01). 376 patients failed to maintain disease control with a median TTP of 13 months in the HPV+/p16+ subgroup vs. 8.5 months in the HPV-/p16- subgroup (P < 0.05). HPV combined with p16 status remained one of the most informative covariates in the final Cox regression model for OS, TTP, and SAP.

METHODS

We included all patients diagnosed with OPSCC (n = 1,542) between 2000-2014 in Eastern Denmark. Survival rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to construct predictive, internally validated nomograms.

CONCLUSION

The HPV+/p16+ subgroup had improved OS, TTP, and SAP compared with other combinations of HPV and p16 after adjusting for covariates. Nomograms were constructed for 1-, 5- and 10-year survival probability. Models may aid patients and clinicians in their clinical decision making as well as in counselling, research, and trial design.

A Decade of Global mRNA and miRNA Profiling of HPV-Positive Cell Lines and Clinical Specimens

For more than a decade, global gene expression profiling has been extensively used to elucidate the biology of human papillomaviruses (HPV) and their role in cervical- and head-and-neck cancers. Since 2008, the expression profiling of miRNAs has been reported in multiple HPV studies. Two major strategies have been employed in the gene and miRNA profiling studies: In the first approach, HPV positive tumors were compared to normal tissues or to HPV negative tumors. The second strategy relied on analysis of cell cultures transfected with single HPV oncogenes or with HPV genomes compared to untransfected cells considered as models for the development of premalignant and malignant transformations.In this review, we summarize what we have learned from a decade of global expression profiling studies. We performed comprehensive analysis of the overlap of the lists of differentially expressed genes and microRNAs, in both tissue samples and cell culture based studies. The review focuses mainly on HPV16, however reports from other HPV species are used as references. We discuss the low degree of consensus among different studies and the limitation of differential expression analysis as well as the fragmented miRNA-mRNA target correlation evidence. Furthermore, we propose an approach for future research to include more comprehensive miRNA-mRNA target correlation analysis and to apply systems biology/gene networks methodology.