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Dean CB, El‐Shaarawi AH, Esterby SR, Mills Flemming J, Routledge RD, Taylor SW, Woolford DG, Zidek JV, Zwiers FW. Canadian contributions to environmetrics. CAN J STAT 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/cjs.11743] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Charmaine B. Dean
- Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science University of Waterloo 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo Ontario Canada N2L 3G1
| | - Abdel H. El‐Shaarawi
- Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science Cairo University Cairo Egypt
| | - Sylvia R. Esterby
- Department of Computer Science Mathematics, Physics and Statistics, University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus 3187, University Way, Kelowna British Columbia Canada V1V 1V7
| | - Joanna Mills Flemming
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics Dalhousie University 6316 Coburg Road ‐ PO BOX 15000, Halifax Nova Scotia Canada B3H 4R2
| | - Richard D. Routledge
- Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science Simon Fraser University 8888 University Drive, Burnaby British Columbia Canada V5A 1S6
| | - Stephen W. Taylor
- Pacific Forestry Centre 506 Burnside Road West, Victoria British Columbia Canada V8Z 1M5
| | - Douglas G. Woolford
- Department of Statistical & Actuarial Sciences The University of Western Ontario 1151 Richmond Street, London Ontario Canada N6A 5B7
| | - James V. Zidek
- Department of Statistics University of British Columbia 2207 Main Mall, Vancouver British Columbia Canada V6T 1Z4
| | - Francis W. Zwiers
- Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) University of Victoria University House 1, PO Box 1700 Stn CSC, Victoria British Columbia Canada V8W 2Y2
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Kirchmeier-Young MC, Zwiers FW, Gillett NP, Cannon AJ. Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions. Clim Change 2017; 144:365-379. [PMID: 32009687 PMCID: PMC6961511 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2030-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2017] [Accepted: 07/07/2017] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Canada is expected to see an increase in fire risk under future climate projections. Large fires, such as that near Fort McMurray, Alberta in 2016, can be devastating to the communities affected. Understanding the role of human emissions in the occurrence of such extreme fire events can lend insight into how these events might change in the future. An event attribution framework is used to quantify the influence of anthropogenic forcings on extreme fire risk in the current climate of a western Canada region. Fourteen metrics from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System are used to define the extreme fire seasons. For the majority of these metrics and during the current decade, the combined effect of anthropogenic and natural forcing is estimated to have made extreme fire risk events in the region 1.5 to 6 times as likely compared to a climate that would have been with natural forcings alone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young
- Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2 Canada
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2 Canada
| | - Francis W. Zwiers
- Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2 Canada
| | - Nathan P. Gillett
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2 Canada
| | - Alex J. Cannon
- Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2 Canada
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Abstract
The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth's largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world's highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evan Weller
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang 37673, South Korea
| | - Seung-Ki Min
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang 37673, South Korea
| | - Wenju Cai
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia
- Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266071, China
| | - Francis W. Zwiers
- Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 2Y2, Canada
| | - Yeon-Hee Kim
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang 37673, South Korea
| | - Donghyun Lee
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang 37673, South Korea
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Stott PA, Christidis N, Otto FEL, Sun Y, Vanderlinden JP, van Oldenborgh GJ, Vautard R, von Storch H, Walton P, Yiou P, Zwiers FW. Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 2016; 7:23-41. [PMID: 26877771 PMCID: PMC4739554 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 77] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2015] [Revised: 09/14/2015] [Accepted: 10/15/2015] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Ying Sun
- National Climate Center China Meteorological Adminstration Beijing China
| | - Jean-Paul Vanderlinden
- Observatoire de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines for University of Versailles Versailles France
| | | | - Robert Vautard
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement for Centre National de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) Paris France
| | | | - Peter Walton
- Centre for the Environment Oxford University Oxford UK
| | - Pascal Yiou
- Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation in the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment Gif-sur-Yvette France
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Min SK, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC. Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature 2011; 470:378-81. [PMID: 21331039 DOI: 10.1038/nature09763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 315] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2010] [Accepted: 12/17/2010] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Extremes of weather and climate can have devastating effects on human society and the environment. Understanding past changes in the characteristics of such events, including recent increases in the intensity of heavy precipitation events over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere land area, is critical for reliable projections of future changes. Given that atmospheric water-holding capacity is expected to increase roughly exponentially with temperature--and that atmospheric water content is increasing in accord with this theoretical expectation--it has been suggested that human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for increases in heavy precipitation. Because of the limited availability of daily observations, however, most previous studies have examined only the potential detectability of changes in extreme precipitation through model-model comparisons. Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique. Changes in extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seung-Ki Min
- Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario M3H5T4, Canada.
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Lee TCK, Tsao M, Zwiers FW. State-space model for proxy-based millennial reconstruction. CAN J STAT 2010. [DOI: 10.1002/cjs.10054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
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Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC, Lambert FH, Gillett NP, Solomon S, Stott PA, Nozawa T. Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature 2007; 448:461-5. [PMID: 17646832 DOI: 10.1038/nature06025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 159] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2007] [Accepted: 06/14/2007] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Human influence on climate has been detected in surface air temperature, sea level pressure, free atmospheric temperature, tropopause height and ocean heat content. Human-induced changes have not, however, previously been detected in precipitation at the global scale, partly because changes in precipitation in different regions cancel each other out and thereby reduce the strength of the global average signal. Models suggest that anthropogenic forcing should have caused a small increase in global mean precipitation and a latitudinal redistribution of precipitation, increasing precipitation at high latitudes, decreasing precipitation at sub-tropical latitudes, and possibly changing the distribution of precipitation within the tropics by shifting the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Here we compare observed changes in land precipitation during the twentieth century averaged over latitudinal bands with changes simulated by fourteen climate models. We show that anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on observed changes in average precipitation within latitudinal bands, and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability or natural forcing. We estimate that anthropogenic forcing contributed significantly to observed increases in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, drying in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and tropics, and moistening in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and deep tropics. The observed changes, which are larger than estimated from model simulations, may have already had significant effects on ecosystems, agriculture and human health in regions that are sensitive to changes in precipitation, such as the Sahel.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuebin Zhang
- Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario M3H 5T4, Canada
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Abstract
Greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulphate aerosols--the main human influences on climate--have been shown to have had a detectable effect on surface air temperature, the temperature of the free troposphere and stratosphere and ocean temperature. Nevertheless, the question remains as to whether human influence is detectable in any variable other than temperature. Here we detect an influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in observations of winter sea-level pressure (December to February), using combined simulations from four climate models. We find increases in sea-level pressure over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, southern Europe and North Africa, and decreases in the polar regions and the North Pacific Ocean, in response to human influence. Our analysis also indicates that the climate models substantially underestimate the magnitude of the sea-level pressure response. This discrepancy suggests that the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (corresponding to strengthened westerlies in the North Atlantic region), as simulated in a number of global warming scenarios, may be too small, leading to an underestimation of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nathan P Gillett
- School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, PO Box 3055, Victoria, British Columbia, V8W 3P6, Canada.
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Abstract
Global air surface temperatures increased by about 0.6 degrees C during the 20th century, but as Zwiers and Weaver discuss in their Perspective, the warming was not continuous. Two distinct periods of warming, from 1910 to 1945 and since 1976, were separated by a period of very gradual cooling. The authors highlight the work by Stott et al., who have performed the most comprehensive simulation of 20th century climate to date. The agreement between observed and simulated temperature variations strongly suggests that forcing from anthropogenic activities, moderated by variations in solar and volcanic forcing, has been the main driver of climate change during the past century.
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Zwiers FW, Wang XL, Sheng J. Effects of specifying bottom boundary conditions in an ensemble of atmospheric GCM simulations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2000. [DOI: 10.1029/1999jd901050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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