Genetic variation in reproductive timing in a long-lived herbaceous perennial

PREMISE

Reproductive fitness of individual plants depends on the timing of flowering, especially in mate-limited populations, such as those in fragmented habitats. When flowering time traits are associated with differential reproductive success, the narrow-sense heritability (h² ) of traits will determine how rapidly trait means evolve in response to selection. Heritability of flowering time is documented in many annual plants. However, estimating h² of flowering time in perennials presents additional methodological challenges, often including paternity assignment and trait expression over multiple years.

METHODS

We evaluated the h² of onset and duration of flowering using offspring-midparent regressions and restricted maximum likelihood methods in an experimental population of an iterocarpic, perennial, herbaceous plant, Echinacea angustifolia, growing in natural conditions. We assessed the flowering time of the parental cohort in 2005 and 2006; the offspring in 2014 through 2017. We also examined the effects of the paternity assignment from Cervus and MasterBayes on estimates of h² .

RESULTS

We found substantial h² for onset and duration of flowering. We also observed variation in estimates among years. The most reliable estimates for both traits fell in the range of 0.1-0.17. We found evidence of a genotype by year interaction for onset of flowering and strong evidence that genotypes are consistent in their duration of flowering across years.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial heritabilities in this population imply the capacity for a response to natural selection, while also suggesting the potential for differential contributions to adaptive evolution among seasons.

THE OCCURRENCE AND SIGNIFICANCE OF EPISTATIC VARIANCE FOR QUANTITATIVE CHARACTERS AND ITS MEASUREMENT IN HAPLOIDS

Epistatic genetic variance for quantitative traits may play an important role in evolution, but detecting epistasis in diploid organisms is difficult and requires complex breeding programs and very large sample sizes. We develop a model for detecting epistasis in organisms with a free-living haploid stage in their life cycles. We show that epistasis is indicated by greater variance among families of haploid progeny derived from individual diploids than among clonally replicated haploid sibs from the same sporophyte. Simulations show that the power to detect epistasis is linearly related to the number of sporophytes and the number of haploids per sporophyte in the dataset. We illustrate the model with data from growth variation among gametophytes of the moss, Ceratodon purpureus. The experiment failed to detect epistatic variance for biomass production, although there was evidence of additive variance.

Quantitative genetic study of the adaptive process

The additive genetic variance with respect to absolute fitness, VA(W), divided by mean absolute fitness, , sets the rate of ongoing adaptation. Fisher's key insight yielding this quantitative prediction of adaptive evolution, known as the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection, is well appreciated by evolutionists. Nevertheless, extremely scant information about VA(W) is available for natural populations. Consequently, the capacity for fitness increase via natural selection is unknown. Particularly in the current context of rapid environmental change, which is likely to reduce fitness directly and, consequently, the size and persistence of populations, the urgency of advancing understanding of immediate adaptive capacity is extreme. We here explore reasons for the dearth of empirical information about VA(W), despite its theoretical renown and critical evolutionary role. Of these reasons, we suggest that expectations that VA(W) is negligible, in general, together with severe statistical challenges of estimating it, may largely account for the limited empirical emphasis on it. To develop insight into the dynamics of VA(W) in a changing environment, we have conducted individual-based genetically explicit simulations. We show that, as optimizing selection on a trait changes steadily over generations, VA(W) can grow considerably, supporting more rapid adaptation than would the VA(W) of the base population. We call for direct evaluation of VA(W) and in support of prediction of rates adaptive evolution, and we advocate for the use of aster modeling as a rigorous basis for achieving this goal.

How does pollen versus seed dispersal affect niche evolution?

In heterogeneous landscapes, the genetic and demographic consequences of dispersal influence the evolution of niche width. Unless pollen is limiting, pollen dispersal does not contribute directly to population growth. However, by disrupting local adaptation, it indirectly affects population dynamics. We compare the effect of pollen versus seed dispersal on the evolution of niche width in heterogeneous habitats, explicitly considering the feedback between maladaptation and demography. We consider two scenarios: the secondary contact of two subpopulations, in distinct, formerly isolated habitats, and the colonization of an empty habitat with dispersal between the new and ancestral habitat. With an analytical model, we identify critical levels of genetic variance leading to niche contraction (secondary contact scenario), or expansion (new habitat scenario). We confront these predictions with simulations where the genetic variance freely evolves. Niche contraction occurs when habitats are very different. It is faster as total gene flow increases or as pollen predominates in overall gene flow. Niche expansion occurs when habitat heterogeneity is not too high. Seed dispersal accelerates it, whereas pollen dispersal tends to retard it. In both scenarios very high seed dispersal leads to extinction. Overall, our results predict a wider niche for species dispersing seeds more than pollen.

Fitness of Arabidopsis thaliana mutation accumulation lines whose spontaneous mutations are known

Despite the fundamental importance of mutation to the evolutionary process, we have little knowledge of the direct consequences of specific spontaneous mutations to the fitness of the organism. Combining results of whole-genome sequencing with repeated field assays of survival and reproduction, we quantify the combined effects on fitness of spontaneous mutations identified in Arabidopsis thaliana. We demonstrate that the effects are beneficial, deleterious, or neutral depending on the environmental context. Some lines, bearing mutations disrupting known loci, differ strongly in fitness from the founder or premutation genotype. Those effects vary across environments, for example, a line with a major deletion spanning a transcription factor gene expressed lower fitness than the founder under most conditions but exceeded the founder's fitness in one environment. The large contribution of genotype by environment interaction (G × E) to mutation effects on fitness implies spatial and/or temporal variation in selection on new mutations and could contribute to the maintenance of standing genetic variation.

Fitness-dependent mutation rates in finite populations

Mutation rate may be condition dependent, whereby individuals in poor condition, perhaps from high mutation load, have higher mutation rates than individuals in good condition. Agrawal (J. Evol. Biol.15, 2002, 1004) explored the basic properties of fitness-dependent mutation rate (FDMR) in infinite populations and reported some heuristic results for finite populations. The key parameter governing how infinite populations evolve under FDMR is the curvature (k) of the relationship between fitness and mutation rate. We extend Agrawal's analysis to finite populations and consider dominance and epistasis. In finite populations, the probability of long-term existence depends on k. In sexual populations, positive curvature leads to low equilibrium mutation rate, whereas negative curvature results in high mutation rate. In asexual populations, negative curvature results in rapid extinction via 'mutational meltdown', whereas positive curvature sometimes allows persistence. We speculate that fitness-dependent mutation rate may provide the conditions for genetic architecture to diverge between sexual and asexual taxa.

Spontaneous mutation parameters for Arabidopsis thaliana measured in the wild

Mutations are the ultimate source of genetic diversity and their contributions to evolutionary process depend critically on their rate and their effects on traits, notably fitness. Mutation rate and mutation effect can be measured simultaneously through the use of mutation accumulation lines, and previous mutation accumulation studies measuring these parameters have been performed in laboratory conditions. However, estimation of mutation parameters for fitness in wild populations requires assays in environments where mutations are exposed to natural selection and natural environmental variation. Here we quantify mutation parameters in both the wild and greenhouse environments using 100 25th generation Arabidopsis thaliana mutation accumulation lines. We found significantly greater mutational variance and a higher mutation rate for fitness under field conditions relative to greenhouse conditions. However, our field estimates were low when scaled to natural environmental variation. Many of the mutation accumulation lines have increased fitness, counter to the expectation that nearly all mutations decrease fitness. A high mutation rate and a low mutational contribution to phenotypic variation may explain observed levels of natural genetic variation. Our findings indicate that mutation parameters are not fixed, but are variables whose values may reflect the specific environment in which mutations are tested.

Joint effects of inbreeding and local adaptation on the evolution of genetic load after fragmentation

Disruption of gene flow among demes after landscape fragmentation can facilitate local adaptation but increase the effect of genetic drift and inbreeding. The joint effects of these conflicting forces on the mean fitness of individuals in a population are unknown. Through simulations, we explored the effect of increased isolation on the evolution of genetic load over the short and long term when fitness depends in part on local adaptation. We ignored genetic effects on demography. We modeled complex genomes, where a subset of the loci were under divergent selection in different localities. When a fraction of the loci were under heterogeneous selection, isolation increased mean fitness in larger demes made up of hundreds of individuals because of improved local adaptation. In smaller demes of tens of individuals, increased isolation improved local adaptation very little and reduced overall fitness. Short-term improvement of mean fitness after fragmentation may not be indicative of the long-term evolution of fitness. Whatever the deme size and potential for local adaptation, migration of one or two individuals per generation minimized the genetic load in general. The slow dynamics of mean fitness following fragmentation suggests that conservation measures should be implemented before the consequences of isolation on the genetic load become of concern.

Strong ecological but weak evolutionary effects of elevated CO2 on a recombinant inbred population of Arabidopsis thaliana

Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration have an impact on plant communities by influencing plant growth and morphology, species interactions, and ecosystem processes. These ecological effects may be accompanied by evolutionary change if elevated CO2 (eCO2) alters patterns of natural selection or expression of genetic variation. Here, a statistically powerful quantitative genetic experiment and manipulations of CO2 concentrations in a field setting were used to investigate how eCO2 impacts patterns of selection on ecologically important traits in Arabidopsis thaliana; heritabilities, which influence the rate of response to selection; and genetic covariances between traits, which may constrain responses to selection. CO2 had strong phenotypic effects; plants grown in eCO2 were taller and produced more biomass and fruits. Also, significant directional selection was observed on many traits and significant genetic variation was observed for all traits. However, no evolutionary effect of eCO2 was detected; patterns of selection, heritabilities and genetic correlations corresponded closely in ambient and elevated CO2 environments. The data suggest that patterns of natural selection and the quantitative genetic parameters of this A. thaliana population are robust to increases in CO2 concentration and that responses to eCO2 will be primarily ecological.

A comprehensive model of mutations affecting fitness and inferences for Arabidopsis thaliana

As the ultimate source of genetic variation, spontaneous mutation is essential to evolutionary change. Theoretical studies over several decades have revealed the dependence of evolutionary consequences of mutation on specific mutational properties, including genomic mutation rates, U, and the effects of newly arising mutations on individual fitness, s. The recent resurgence of empirical effort to infer these properties for diverse organisms has not achieved consensus. Estimates, which have been obtained by methods that assume mutations are unidirectional in their effects on fitness, are imprecise. Both because a general approach must allow for occurrence of fitness-enhancing mutations, even if these are rare, and because recent evidence demands it, we present a new method for inferring mutational parameters. For the distribution of mutational effects, we retain Keightley's assumption of the gamma distribution, to take advantage of the flexibility of its shape. Because the conventional gamma is one sided, restricting it to unidirectional effects, we include an additional parameter, rho, as an amount it is displaced from zero. Estimation is accomplished by Markov chain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood. Through a limited set of simulations, we verify the accuracy of this approach. We apply it to analyze data on two reproductive fitness components from a 17-generation mutation-accumulation study of a Columbia accession of Arabidopsis thaliana in which 40 lines sampled in three generations were assayed simultaneously. For these traits, U approximately/= 0.1-0.2, with distributions of mutational effects broadly spanning zero, such that roughly half the mutations reduce reproductive fitness. One evolutionary consequence of these results is lower extinction risks of small populations of A. thaliana than expected from the process of mutational meltdown. A comprehensive view of the evolutionary consequences of mutation will depend on quantitatively accounting for fitness-enhancing, as well as fitness-reducing, mutations.

Toward reconciling inferences concerning genetic variation in senescence in Drosophila melanogaster

Standard models for senescence predict an increase in the additive genetic variance for log mortality rate late in the life cycle. Variance component analysis of age-specific mortality rates of related cohorts is problematic. The actual mortality rates are not observable and can be estimated only crudely at early ages when few individuals are dying and at late ages when most are dead. Therefore, standard quantitative genetic analysis techniques cannot be applied with confidence. We present a novel and rigorous analysis that treats the mortality rates as missing data following two different parametric senescence models. Two recent studies of Drosophila melanogaster, the original analyses of which reached different conclusions, are reanalyzed here. The two-parameter Gompertz model assumes that mortality rates increase exponentially with age. A related but more complex three-parameter logistic model allows for subsequent leveling off in mortality rates at late ages. We find that while additive variance for mortality rates increases for late ages under the Gompertz model, it declines under the logistic model. The results from the two studies are similar, with differences attributable to differences between the experiments.

Genetic components of variation in Nemophila menziesii undergoing inbreeding: morphology and flowering time

The standard approaches to estimation of quantitative genetic parameters and prediction of response to selection on quantitative traits are based on theory derived for populations undergoing random mating. Many studies demonstrate, however, that mating systems in natural populations often involve inbreeding in various degrees (i.e. , self matings and matings between relatives). Here we apply theory developed for estimating quantitative genetic parameters for partially inbreeding populations to a population of Nemophila menziesii recently obtained from nature and experimentally inbred. Two measures of overall plant size and two of floral size expressed highly significant inbreeding depression. Of three dominance components of phenotypic variance that are defined under partial inbreeding, one was found to contribute significantly to phenotypic variance in flower size and flowering time, while the remaining two components contributed only negligibly to variation in each of the five traits considered. Computer simulations investigating selection response under the more complete genetic model for populations undergoing mixed mating indicate that, for parameter values estimated in this study, selection response can be substantially slowed relative to predictions for a random mating population. Moreover, inbreeding depression alone does not generally account for the reduction in selection response.

Evaluation of the Rate of Evolution in Natural Populations of Guppies (Poecilia reticulata)

Natural populations of guppies were subjected to an episode of directional selection that mimicked natural processes. The resulting rate of evolution of age and size at maturity was similar to rates typically obtained for traits subjected to artificial selection in laboratory settings and up to seven orders of magnitude greater than rates inferred from the paleontological record. Male traits evolved more rapidly than female traits largely because males had more genetic variation upon which natural selection could act. These results are considered in light of the ongoing debate about the importance of natural selection versus other processes in the paleontological record of evolution.

Quantitative genetics of response to competitors in Nemophila menziesii: a field experiment

Recent investigations of evolution in heterogeneous environments have begun to accommodate genetic and environmental complexity typical of natural populations. Theoretical studies demonstrate that evolution of polygenic characters depends heavily on the genetic interdependence of the expression of traits in the different environments in which selection occurs, but information concerning this issue is scarce. We conducted a field experiment to assess the genetic variability of the annual plant Nemophila menziesii in five biotic regimes differing in plant density and composition. Significant, though modest, additive genetic variance in plant size was expressed in particular treatments. Evidence of additive genetic tradeoffs between interspecific and intraspecific competitive performance was found, but this result was not consistent throughout the experiment. Two aspects of experimental design may tend to obscure genetically based tradeoffs across environments in many previously published experiments: (1) inability to isolate additive genetic from other sources of variation and (2) use of novel (e.g., laboratory) environments.