A cool runaway greenhouse without surface magma ocean

Water vapour atmospheres with content equivalent to the Earth's oceans, resulting from impacts1 or a high insolation2,3, were found to yield a surface magma ocean4,5. This was, however, a consequence of assuming a fully convective structure2-11. Here, we report using a consistent climate model that pure steam atmospheres are commonly shaped by radiative layers, making their thermal structure strongly dependent on the stellar spectrum and internal heat flow. The surface is cooler when an adiabatic profile is not imposed; melting Earth's crust requires an insolation several times higher than today, which will not happen during the main sequence of the Sun. Venus's surface can solidify before the steam atmosphere escapes, which is the opposite of previous works4,5. Around the reddest stars (Teff  <  3,000 K), surface magma oceans cannot form by stellar forcing alone, whatever the water content. These findings affect observable signatures of steam atmospheres and exoplanet mass-radius relationships, drastically changing current constraints on the water content of TRAPPIST-1 planets. Unlike adiabatic structures, radiative-convective profiles are sensitive to opacities. New measurements of poorly constrained high-pressure opacities, in particular far from the H2O absorption bands, are thus necessary to refine models of steam atmospheres, which are important stages in terrestrial planet evolution.

Day-night cloud asymmetry prevents early oceans on Venus but not on Earth

Earth has had oceans for nearly four billion years¹ and Mars had lakes and rivers 3.5-3.8 billion years ago². However, it is still unknown whether water has ever condensed on the surface of Venus^3,4 because the planet-now completely dry⁵-has undergone global resurfacing events that obscure most of its history^6,7. The conditions required for water to have initially condensed on the surface of Solar System terrestrial planets are highly uncertain, as they have so far only been studied with one-dimensional numerical climate models³ that cannot account for the effects of atmospheric circulation and clouds, which are key climate stabilizers. Here we show using three-dimensional global climate model simulations of early Venus and Earth that water clouds-which preferentially form on the nightside, owing to the strong subsolar water vapour absorption-have a strong net warming effect that inhibits surface water condensation even at modest insolations (down to 325 watts per square metre, that is, 0.95 times the Earth solar constant). This shows that water never condensed and that, consequently, oceans never formed on the surface of Venus. Furthermore, this shows that the formation of Earth's oceans required much lower insolation than today, which was made possible by the faint young Sun. This also implies the existence of another stability state for present-day Earth: the 'steam Earth', with all the water from the oceans evaporated into the atmosphere.