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Lee T, Kang JM, Ahn JG, Thuy Truong DT, Nguyen TV, Ho TV, Thanh Ton HT, Le Hoang P, Kim MY, Yeom JS, Lee J. Prediction of effectiveness of universal rotavirus vaccination in Southwestern Vietnam based on a dynamic mathematical model. Sci Rep 2024; 14:4273. [PMID: 38383679 PMCID: PMC10881495 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-54775-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2023] [Accepted: 02/16/2024] [Indexed: 02/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Vaccinating young children against rotavirus (RV) is a promising preventive strategy against rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE). We evaluated the relative risk reduction of RVGE induced by universal vaccination in Vietnam through dynamic model analysis. We developed an age-stratified dynamic Vaccinated-Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible model to analyze RV transmission and assess vaccine effectiveness (VE). We assumed 3 different vaccine efficacies: 55%, 70%, and 85%. For model calibration, we used a database of patients under 5 years of age admitted to Ho Chi Minh No.1 Hospital with RVGE between January 2013 and December 2018. Assuming a vaccination rate of 95%, the number of RVGE hospitalizations after 5 years from universal RV vaccination decreased from 92,502 cases to 45,626 with 85% efficacy, to 54,576 cases with 70% efficacy, and to 63,209 cases with 55% efficacy. Additionally, RVGE hospitalizations after 10 years decreased from 177,950 to 89,517 with 85% efficacy and to 121,832 cases with 55% efficacy. The relative risk reductions of RVGE after 10 years were 49.7% with 85% efficacy, 40.6% with 70% efficacy, and 31.5% with 55% efficacy. The VE was 1.10 times (95% CI, 1.01-1.22) higher in the 4-months to 1-year-old age group than in the other age groups (P = 0.038), when applying 85% efficacy with 95% coverage. In conclusion, despite its relatively lower efficacy compared to high-income countries, RV vaccination remains an effective intervention in Southwestern Vietnam. In particular, implementing universal RV vaccination with higher coverage would result in a decrease in RVGE hospitalizations among Vietnamese children under 5 years of age.
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Affiliation(s)
- Taeyong Lee
- School of Mathematics and Computing (Mathematics), Yonsei University, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, 03722, South Korea
| | - Ji-Man Kang
- Department of Pediatrics, Severance Children's Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
- Institute for Immunology and Immunological Diseases, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Jong Gyun Ahn
- Department of Pediatrics, Severance Children's Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
- Institute for Immunology and Immunological Diseases, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Dung Thi Thuy Truong
- Department for Disease Control and Prevention, Pasteur Institute, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | | | - Thang Vinh Ho
- Department for Disease Control and Prevention, Pasteur Institute, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Ha Thi Thanh Ton
- Department of Gastroenterology, Children's Hospital 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Phuc Le Hoang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Children's Hospital 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Min Young Kim
- Department of Pediatrics, Severance Children's Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
- Institute for Immunology and Immunological Diseases, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Joon-Sup Yeom
- Department of Internal Medicine, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 50-1 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, 03722, South Korea.
| | - Jeehyun Lee
- School of Mathematics and Computing (Mathematics), Yonsei University, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, 03722, South Korea.
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