Application of ADMS-Urban for an area with a high contribution of residential heating emissions - model verification and sensitivity study for PM2.5

Air pollution poses a significant risk to both human health and the environment in the contemporary world. Among the various pollutants, particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) is regarded as the most hazardous. It has been implicated in over four million global fatalities in 2019 alone. This research paper divulges the outcomes of modelling the spatial-temporal fluctuations of PM2.5 concentrations within the confines of Wroclaw, a city situated in Poland, Central Europe. The model's output was evaluated through comparison with collected data from two government-operated monitoring stations within the city. For this study, we used the ADMS-Urban model and tested two different sources of background data (low-cost sensors and the EMEP MSC-W atmospheric chemistry transport model). The statistical analysis conducted in the paper indicates that the model reproduces the temporal variability of PM2.5. The conclusions from this research indicate that the average annual PM2.5 concentration within Wroclaw is 13.8 μg/m3, with the concentration peaking in the month of March. The spatial distribution reveals the highest PM2.5 concentrations primarily in the southern and western zones of the city, with additional elevated concentrations observed sporadically throughout the city. The study unveils that 1.3 % of Wroclaw's area experiences PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the EU's annual limit of 20 μg/m3. When considered in relation to the WHO's suggested annual average level of 5 μg/m3, Wroclaw city experiences exceedances throughout. When background concentrations are excluded from the model, the annual average PM2.5 concentration across the city is noted to be reduced by >50 %. A thorough investigation of the city's emission structure, taking into account only emissions from the city without background, indicates that the residential sector contributes about 77.3 % of the total annual average PM2.5 concentration in Wroclaw. The transportation and industrial sectors account for nearly 19.5 % and 3.2 %, respectively.

Do we need high temporal resolution modelling of exposure in urban areas? A test case

Roadside concentrations of harmful pollutants such as NO_x are highly variable in both space and time. This is rarely considered when assessing pedestrian and cyclist exposures. We aim to fully describe the spatio-temporal variability of exposures of pedestrians and cyclists travelling along a road at high resolution. We evaluate the value added of high spatio-temporal resolution compared to high spatial resolution only. We also compare high resolution vehicle emissions modelling to using a constant volume source. We highlight conditions of peak exposures, and discuss implications for health impact assessments. Using the large eddy simulation code Fluidity we simulate NO_x concentrations at a resolution of 2 m and 1 s along a 350 m road segment in a complex real-world street geometry including an intersection and bus stops. We then simulate pedestrian and cyclist journeys for different routes and departure times. For the high spatio-temporal method, the standard deviation in 1 s concentration experienced by pedestrians (50.9 μg.m^-3) is nearly three times greater than that predicted by the high-spatial only (17.5 μg.m^-3) or constant volume source (17.6 μg.m^-3) methods. This exposure is characterised by low concentrations punctuated by short duration, peak exposures which elevate the mean exposure and are not captured by the other two methods. We also find that the mean exposure of cyclists on the road (31.8 μg.m^-3) is significantly greater than that of cyclists on a roadside path (25.6 μg.m^-3) and that of pedestrians on a sidewalk (17.6 μg.m^-3). We conclude that ignoring high resolution temporal air pollution variability experienced at the breathing time scale can lead to a mischaracterization of pedestrian and cyclist exposures, and therefore also potentially the harm caused. High resolution methods reveal that peaks, and hence mean exposures, can be meaningfully reduced by avoiding hyper-local hotspots such as bus stops and junctions.

Modelling benzo(a)pyrene concentrations for different meteorological conditions - Analysis of lung cancer cases and associated economic costs

Air pollution originating from the household presents a significant burden to public health, especially during the wintertime in countries, such as Poland, where coal substantially contributes to the energy market. One of the most hazardous components of particulate matter is benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). This study focusses on the impact of different meteorological conditions on BaP concentrations in Poland and associated impacts on human health and economic burdens. For this study, we used the EMEP MSC-W atmospheric chemistry transport model with meteorological data from the Weather Research and Forecasting model to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of BaP over Central Europe. The model setup has two nested domains, with the inner domain at 4 km × 4 km over Poland, which is a hotspot for BaP concentrations. The outer domain covers countries surrounding Poland in coarser resolution (12 × 812 km), to ensure that transboundary pollution is properly characterized in the modelling. We investigated the sensitivity to variability in winter meteorological conditions on BaP levels and impacts using data from 3 years: 1) 2018, which represents average meteorological conditions during the winter season (BASE run), 2) 2010 with a cold winter (COLD), and 3) 2020 with a warm winter (WARM). The ALPHA-RiskPoll model was used to analyze the lung cancer cases and associated economic costs. The results show that the majority of Poland exceeds the target level of benzo(a)pyrene (1 ng m^-3) mainly due to high concentrations during the cold months. High concentrations of BaP have serious health implications and the number of lung cancers in Poland due to BaP exposure varies from 57 to 77 cases for the WARM and COLD years, respectively. It is reflected in the economic costs, which ranged from 136, through 174 to 185 million euros/year for the WARM, BASE and COLD model runs, respectively.

Reduced-form and complex ACTM modelling for air quality policy development: A model inter-comparison

Simulation models can be valuable tools in supporting development of air pollution policy. However, exploration of future scenarios depends on reliable and robust modelling to provide confidence in outcomes which cannot be tested against measurements. Here we focus on the UK Integrated Assessment Model, a fast reduced-form model with a purpose to support policy development with modelling of multiple alternative future scenarios, and the EMEP4UK model which is a complex Eulerian Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Model requiring significant computing resources. The EMEP4UK model has been used to model selected core scenarios to compare with UKIAM, and to investigate sensitivity studies such as the interannual variability in response to meteorological differences between years. This model intercomparison addresses total PM_2.5, primary PM_2.5 and Secondary Inorganic Aerosol concentrations for a baseline of 2018 and selected scenarios for projections to 2040. This work has confirmed the robustness of the UK Integrated Assessment Model for assessing alternative futures through a direct comparison with EMEP4UK. Both models have shown good agreement with measurements, and EMEP4UK shows an ability to replicate past trends. These comparisons highlight how a combination of reduced-form modelling (UKIAM) and complex chemical transport modelling (EMEP4UK) can be effectively used in support of air pollution policy development, informing understanding of projected futures in the context of emerging evidence and uncertainties.

The UK Integrated Assessment Model for source apportionment and air pollution policy applications to PM2.5

Source apportionment and the effect of reducing individual sources is important input for the development of strategies to address air pollution. The UK Integrated Assessment Model, UKIAM, has been developed for this purpose as a flexible framework, combining information from different atmospheric dispersion models to cover different pollutant contributions, and span the range from European to local scale. In this paper we describe the UKIAM as developed for SO₂, NOx, NH₃, PM_2.5 and VOCs. We illustrate its versatility and application with assessment of current PM_2.5 concentrations and exposure of the UK population, as a case-study that has been used as the starting point to investigate potential improvement towards attainment of the WHO guideline of 10 µg/m³.

How tall buildings affect turbulent air flows and dispersion of pollution within a neighbourhood

The city of London, UK, has seen in recent years an increase in the number of high-rise/multi-storey buildings ("skyscrapers") with roof heights reaching 150 m and more, with the Shard being a prime example with a height of ∼310 m. This changing cityscape together with recent plans of local authorities of introducing Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHP) led to a detailed study in which CFD and wind tunnel studies were carried out to assess the effect of such high-rise buildings on the dispersion of air pollution in their vicinity. A new, open-source simulator, FLUIDITY, which incorporates the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) method, was implemented; the simulated results were subsequently validated against experimental measurements from the EnFlo wind tunnel. The novelty of the LES methodology within FLUIDITY is based on the combination of an adaptive, unstructured, mesh with an eddy-viscosity tensor (for the sub-grid scales) that is anisotropic. The simulated normalised mean concentrations results were compared to the corresponding wind tunnel measurements, showing for most detector locations good correlations, with differences ranging from 3% to 37%. The validation procedure was followed by the simulation of two further hypothetical scenarios, in which the heights of buildings surrounding the source building were increased. The results showed clearly how the high-rise buildings affected the surrounding air flows and dispersion patterns, with the generation of "dead-zones" and high-concentration "hotspots" in areas where these did not previously exist. The work clearly showed that complex CFD modelling can provide useful information to urban planners when changes to cityscapes are considered, so that design options can be tested against environmental quality criteria.

Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM)

Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned.

Illustrative national scale scenarios of environmental and human health impacts of Carbon Capture and Storage

Integrated Assessment, and the development of strategies to reduce the impacts of air pollution, has tended to focus only upon the direct emissions from different sources, with the indirect emissions associated with the full life-cycle of a technology often overlooked. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) reflects a number of new technologies designed to reduce CO2 emissions, but which may have much broader environmental implications than greenhouse gas emissions. This paper considers a wider range of pollutants from a full life-cycle perspective, illustrating a methodology for assessing environmental impacts using source-apportioned effects based impact factors calculated by the national scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM). Contrasting illustrative scenarios for the deployment of CCS towards 2050 are presented which compare the life-cycle effects of air pollutant emissions upon human health and ecosystems of business-as-usual, deployment of CCS and widespread uptake of IGCC for power generation. Together with estimation of the transboundary impacts we discuss the benefits of an effects based approach to such assessments in relation to emissions based techniques.

Introduction to the DAPPLE Air Pollution Project

The Dispersion of Air Pollution and its Penetration into the Local Environment (DAPPLE) project brings together a multidisciplinary research group that is undertaking field measurements, wind tunnel modelling and computer simulations in order to provide better understanding of the physical processes affecting street and neighbourhood-scale flow of air, traffic and people, and their corresponding interactions with the dispersion of pollutants at street canyon intersections. The street canyon intersection is of interest as it provides the basic case study to demonstrate most of the factors that will apply in a wide range of urban situations. The aims of this paper are to introduce the background of the DAPPLE project, the study design and methodology for data collection, some preliminary results from the first field campaign in central London (28 April-24 May 2003) and the future for this work. Updated information and contact details are available on the web site at http://www.dapple.org.uk.

Endovascular treatment of intracranial aneurysms with Guglielmi detachable coils: analysis of midterm angiographic and clinical outcomes

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The previous decade has witnessed increasing application of Guglielmi detachable coils (GDCs) for the treatment of intracranial aneurysms. However, the midterm angiographic and clinical outcomes are not well documented. We report here the angiographic and clinical outcomes of patients treated with GDCs over an 8-year period.

METHODS

Between 1992 and 1998, 144 patients with 160 intracranial aneurysms were treated with GDCs. Clinical follow-up data were obtained from medical records, questionnaires, and telephone interviews. Angiographic studies were reviewed by 2 neuroradiologists to obtain consensus regarding the degree of aneurysm occlusion.

RESULTS

Eighty-one patients had ruptured aneurysms; 63 had unruptured aneurysms. Technical success was achieved in 91% of patients, with complete aneurysm occlusion in 46%, neck remnants in 16%, and residual body filling in 38%. Angiographic follow-up revealed that residual body filling in some aneurysms was resolved, small neck remnants were stable, and the recanalization rate decreased with time. All 63 patients with unruptured aneurysms were discharged from hospital with independent clinical status (Glasgow Outcome Score, 1 or 2). For patients with ruptured aneurysms, discharge clinical status correlated with the Hunt & Hess clinical grade at the time of treatment. Clinical follow-up for a minimum of 2 years was available in 98.5% of patients. Ninety-four percent of patients treated for unruptured aneurysms were independent at 2 years, and 82% of Hunt & Hess grade I to II patients were independent.

CONCLUSIONS

Coil embolization is a safe and effective treatment for both ruptured and unruptured aneurysms. Increasing angiographic stability is demonstrated in treated aneurysms up to 3 years from coil embolization. Therefore, follow-up angiography until this time is advisable.