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Srivathsan A, Abdou A, Al-Khatib T, Apadinuwe SC, Badiane MD, Bucumi V, Chisenga T, Kabona G, Kabore M, Kanyi SK, Bella L, M’po N, Masika M, Minnih A, Sitoe HM, Mishra S, Olobio N, Omar FJ, Phiri I, Sanha S, Seife F, Sharma S, Tekeraoi R, Traore L, Watitu T, Bol YY, Borlase A, Deiner MS, Renneker KK, Hooper PJ, Emerson PM, Vasconcelos A, Arnold BF, Porco TC, Hollingsworth TD, Lietman TM, Blumberg S. District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach. Clin Infect Dis 2024; 78:S101-S107. [PMID: 38662700 PMCID: PMC11045026 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciae031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ariktha Srivathsan
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Amza Abdou
- Programme National de Santé Oculaire, Ministère De La Santé Publique, Niamey, Niger
| | - Tawfik Al-Khatib
- Prevention of Blindness Program, Ministry of Public Health & Population, Sana'a, Yemen
| | | | - Mouctar D Badiane
- Programme National de Promotion de La Santé Oculaire, Ministère de la Santé et de L'Action sociale, Dakar, Sénégal
| | - Victor Bucumi
- Département En Charge des Maladies Tropicales Négligées, Ministère De La Santé Publique Et De La Lutte Contre Le Sida, Bujumbura, Burundi
| | - Tina Chisenga
- Ministry of Health Public Health Department, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - George Kabona
- Neglected Tropical Disease Control Program, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Dar Es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Martin Kabore
- Programme national de lutte contre les maladies tropicales négligées, Ministère de la santé et de l'hygiène publique, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Sarjo Kebba Kanyi
- The National Eye Health Programme, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Banjul, Kanifing, The Gambia
| | - Lucienne Bella
- Programme National De Lutte Contre La Cécité, Ministère De La Santé Publique, Yaoundé, Cameroon
| | - Nekoua M’po
- Programme National De Lutte Contre Les Maladies Transmissibles, Ministère De La Santé, Cotonou, Benin
| | - Michael Masika
- Department of Clinical Services, Ministry of Health, Lilongwe, Malawi
| | - Abdellahi Minnih
- Département Des Maladies Transmissibles, Ministère De La Santé Nouakchott, Nouakchott, Mauritania
| | - Henis Mior Sitoe
- Direcção Nacional De Saúde Pública Ministerio Da Saude, Maputo, Mozambique
| | | | - Nicholas Olobio
- National Trachoma Elimination Programme, Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria
| | | | - Isaac Phiri
- Department of Epidemiology and Disease Control, Ministry of Health & Child Welfare, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Salimato Sanha
- Programa Nacional De Saúde De Visão, Minsap, Bissau, Guinea-Bissau
| | - Fikre Seife
- Federal Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | | | - Rabebe Tekeraoi
- Eye Department, Ministry of Health and Medical Services, South Tarawa, Kiribati
| | - Lamine Traore
- Programme National de la Santé Oculaire, Ministère de la Santé, Bamako, Mali
| | | | - Yak Yak Bol
- Neglected Tropical Diseases Programme, Ministry of Health, Juba, South Sudan
| | - Anna Borlase
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Michael S Deiner
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Kristen K Renneker
- International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA
| | - P J Hooper
- International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA
| | - Paul M Emerson
- International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, USA
| | - Andreia Vasconcelos
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Benjamin F Arnold
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Travis C Porco
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - T Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Thomas M Lietman
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Seth Blumberg
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
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Harding-Esch EM, Burgert-Brucker CR, Jimenez C, Bakhtiari A, Willis R, Dejene Bejiga M, Mpyet C, Ngondi J, Boyd S, Abdala M, Abdou A, Adamu Y, Alemayehu A, Alemayehu W, Al-Khatib T, Apadinuwe SC, Awaca N, Awoussi MS, Baayendag G, Badiane Mouctar D, Bailey RL, Batcho W, Bay Z, Bella A, Beido N, Bol YY, Bougouma C, Brady CJ, Bucumi V, Butcher R, Cakacaka R, Cama A, Camara M, Cassama E, Chaora SG, Chebbi AC, Chisambi AB, Chu B, Conteh A, Coulibaly SM, Courtright P, Dalmar A, Dat TM, Davids T, DJAKER MEA, de Fátima Costa Lopes M, Dézoumbé D, Dodson S, Downs P, Eckman S, Elshafie BE, Elmezoghi M, Elvis AA, Emerson P, Epée EEE, Faktaufon D, Fall M, Fassinou A, Fleming F, Flueckiger R, Gamael KK, Garae M, Garap J, Gass K, Gebru G, Gichangi MM, Giorgi E, Goépogui A, Gómez DVF, Gómez Forero DP, Gower EW, Harte A, Henry R, Honorio-Morales HA, Ilako DR, Issifou AAB, Jones E, Kabona G, Kabore M, Kadri B, Kalua K, Kanyi SK, Kebede S, Kebede F, Keenan JD, Kello AB, Khan AA, KHELIFI H, Kilangalanga J, KIM SH, Ko R, Lewallen S, Lietman T, Logora MSY, Lopez YA, MacArthur C, Macleod C, Makangila F, Mariko B, Martin DL, Masika M, Massae P, Massangaie M, Matendechero HS, Mathewos T, McCullagh S, Meite A, Mendes EP, Abdi HM, Miller H, Minnih A, Mishra SK, Molefi T, Mosher A, M’Po N, Mugume F, Mukwiza R, Mwale C, Mwatha S, Mwingira U, Nash SD, NASSA C, Negussu N, Nieba C, Noah Noah JC, Nwosu CO, Olobio N, Opon R, Pavluck A, Phiri I, Rainima-Qaniuci M, Renneker KK, Saboyá-Díaz MI, Sakho F, Sanha S, Sarah V, Sarr B, Szwarcwald CL, Shah Salam A, Sharma S, Seife F, Serrano Chavez GM, Sissoko M, Sitoe HM, Sokana O, Tadesse F, Taleo F, Talero SL, Tarfani Y, Tefera A, Tekeraoi R, Tesfazion A, Traina A, Traoré L, Trujillo-Trujillo J, Tukahebwa EM, Vashist P, Wanyama EB, WARUSAVITHANA SD, Watitu TK, West S, Win Y, Woods G, YAJIMA A, Yaya G, Zecarias A, Zewengiel S, Zoumanigui A, Hooper PJ, Millar T, Rotondo L, Solomon AW. Tropical Data: Approach and Methodology as Applied to Trachoma Prevalence Surveys. Ophthalmic Epidemiol 2023; 30:544-560. [PMID: 38085791 PMCID: PMC10751062 DOI: 10.1080/09286586.2023.2249546] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2023] [Accepted: 08/11/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE Population-based prevalence surveys are essential for decision-making on interventions to achieve trachoma elimination as a public health problem. This paper outlines the methodologies of Tropical Data, which supports work to undertake those surveys. METHODS Tropical Data is a consortium of partners that supports health ministries worldwide to conduct globally standardised prevalence surveys that conform to World Health Organization recommendations. Founding principles are health ministry ownership, partnership and collaboration, and quality assurance and quality control at every step of the survey process. Support covers survey planning, survey design, training, electronic data collection and fieldwork, and data management, analysis and dissemination. Methods are adapted to meet local context and needs. Customisations, operational research and integration of other diseases into routine trachoma surveys have also been supported. RESULTS Between 29th February 2016 and 24th April 2023, 3373 trachoma surveys across 50 countries have been supported, resulting in 10,818,502 people being examined for trachoma. CONCLUSION This health ministry-led, standardised approach, with support from the start to the end of the survey process, has helped all trachoma elimination stakeholders to know where interventions are needed, where interventions can be stopped, and when elimination as a public health problem has been achieved. Flexibility to meet specific country contexts, adaptation to changes in global guidance and adjustments in response to user feedback have facilitated innovation in evidence-based methodologies, and supported health ministries to strive for global disease control targets.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Amza Abdou
- Programme National de Santé Oculaire, Niger
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Naomie Awaca
- Ministère de la Santé Publique, Democratic Republic of Congo
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Clarisse Bougouma
- Programme national de lutte contre les maladies tropicales négligées (PNMTN), Burkina Faso
| | | | - Victor Bucumi
- National Integrated Programme for the Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases and Blindness (PNIMTNC), Burundi
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Brian Chu
- International Trachoma Initiative, USA
| | | | | | - Paul Courtright
- Division of Ophthalmology, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa, South Africa
| | - Abdi Dalmar
- Ministry of Human Development and Public Services, Somalia
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ange Aba Elvis
- Programme National de la Santé Oculaire et de la lutte contre l’Onchocercose, Côte d’Ivoire
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Jambi Garap
- Port Moresby General Hospital, Papua New Guinea
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Anna Harte
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
| | - Rob Henry
- U.S. Agency for International Development, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Martin Kabore
- Programme national de lutte contre les maladies tropicales négligées (PNMTN), Burkina Faso
| | | | - Khumbo Kalua
- Blantyre Institute for Community Outreach, Malawi
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Robert Ko
- Port Moresby General Hospital, Papua New Guinea
| | - Susan Lewallen
- Division of Ophthalmology, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa, South Africa
| | | | | | - Yuri A Lopez
- SACAICET / MINISTERIO DEL PODER POPULAR PARA LA SALUD, Venezuela
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Aboulaye Meite
- Ministère de la Santé et de l’Hygiène Publique, Cote d’Ivoire
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Aryc Mosher
- U.S. Agency for International Development, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Cece Nieba
- Ministère de la Santé et de l’Hygiene Publique, Guinea
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Oliver Sokana
- Solomon Islands Ministry of Health and Medical Services, Solomon Islands
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