Development and validation of the HARMS2-AF lifestyle risk score to predict incident AF

Background

Lifestyle risk factors (RFs) are a modifiable target in atrial fibrillation (AF) management. However, the relative contribution of individual lifestyle RFs to AF incidence has not been described.

Purpose

Development and validation of a novel AF-lifestyle risk score to determine AF risk in the general population.

Methods

The UK Biobank (UKB) is a large prospective cohort with outcomes measured >10 years. In the UKB, we performed regression analysis of AF lifestyle RFs which were then evaluated in a multivariable model and a weighted score was developed. Next, the risk score was externally validated in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) population. Kaplan-Meier estimates ascertained the 10-year risk of AF development.

Results

In the UKB, AF incidence was 5.3% among 302,926 participants, with a median time to AF 7.3 years (IQR 4.3–9.8). Hypertension, sleep apnoea, male sex, age, obesity (BMI>30 kg/m2), alcohol and smoking were predictive variables (all p<0.001); physical inactivity (OR 1.02,95% CI 0.97–1.10, p=0.3), diabetes (OR 0.98,95% CI 0.91–1.06, p=0.2) and BMI 27–30 kg/m2 (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97–1.07, p=0.424) were not significant. The HARMS2-AF score (Figure 1) had similar predictive performance (AUC=0.782, LogLoss 0.178, Brier Score 0.046) to the unweighted regression model (AUC 0.808) in the UKB. Validation in the FHS (AF incidence 6.7% of 7206 participants) maintained excellent predictive performance with an AUC of 0.747 (95% CI 0.724–0.769, Figure 2). A higher HARMS2-AF score (>5 points) was associated with a heightened 10-year AF risk (score 5–9: OR 9.35, score 10–14: OR 33.34).

Conclusions

The HARMS2-AF score is a novel lifestyle risk score which may help identify individuals at risk of AF and assists in general population screening.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Clinical risk prediction for left atrial appendage thrombus among patients with atrial fibrillation

Background

Exclusion of left atrial appendage thrombus (LAAT) by transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) is recommended in patients with inadequate anticoagulation prior to direct cardioversion (DCR) or catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL). LAAT risk factors in this population remain poorly defined.

Purpose

Determine LAAT predictors in AF/AFL patients undergoing pre-procedural TOE.

Methods

We evaluated available clinical and transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) parameters in AF/AFL patients undergoing TOE between 1999–2022 in our institution in Melbourne, Australia. Regression analysis identified predictors of LAAT, which were applied to a weighted score developed in the derivation cohort (70%) and validated in the remaining 30%.

Results

Of 627 patients (age 62±12 years, 27% female, AF 84%,AFL 16%, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 44±20%), 24% had LAAT and 13.8% dense spontaneous echo contrast precluding DCR. Anticoagulation was NOAC 56.5%, warfarin 32.1% and none in 11.4%. In the LAAT cohort, thrombus resolution occurred in 39% on serial transoesophageal imaging with a median time to resolution of 131 days (IQR 54–398).

Diabetes (p=0.004), prior stroke (p=0.009), coronary disease (p=0.015), renal impairment (p<0.001) and CHADS2VASc >2 (73% vs. 55%, p<0.001) were higher in the LAAT cohort. Age (p=0.093), gender (p=0.689), BMI (p=0.828), anticoagulant type (p=0.316) and diabetes (p=0.107) were not univariate predictors, whereas anticoagulation duration (<30 days), creatinine and TTE markers of remodeling (LVEF, LAVI, RVSP and TAPSE) were independent predictors on univariate and multivariate regression; CHADS2VASc was not significant after adjustment (p=0.090). The weighted risk model included continuous (age, creatinine, LVEF, LAVI, TAPSE and RVSP) and categorical (anticoagulation duration) variables with excellent predictive performance: AUC 0.872 (95% CI 0.798–0.946), PPV 91%, NPV 70% and accuracy 80%.

Conclusion

A novel LAAT risk model comprising clinical and echocardiographic parameters enhances risk prediction over CHADS2VASc in AF/AFL and may guide the need for pre-procedural TOE imaging.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

The prevalence and clinical significance of a reduced ventricular ejection fraction in asymptomatic young elite endurance athletes

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia

Background

Ventricular ejection fraction (EF) is the most widely used parameter to evaluate ventricular systolic function. Endurance athletes presenting with a reduced ventricular EF often raise the question of an underlying dilated or arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy. The clinical significance of a reduced EF in athletes remains to be elucidated.

Purpose

To investigate the prevalence and clinical significance of a reduced EF in asymptomatic endurance athletes.

Methods

Two hundred eighteen asymptomatic young elite endurance athletes were evaluated at baseline. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) was performed to assess cardiac volumes, left ventricular and right ventricular EF (LVEF and RVEF), mass and fibrosis. Athletes with reduced EF (ATrEF) were defined as those having LVEF<50% and/or RVEF<45%. Ventricular systolic and diastolic function were assessed by trans-thoracic echocardiography. A 12-lead ECG and 24-hour holtermonitoring assessed electrical alterations and arrhythmias. In 145 athletes, LV and RV contractile reserve was evaluated by exercise CMR. Cardiopulmonary testing was performed in all athletes to measure maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max).

Results

Thirty-one ATrEF (14.2%) were compared to 187 athletes with a preserved EF (ATpEF). ATrEF were more frequently males (93 vs 77% male, p=0.033) but did not differ from ATpEF with regard to age (18.8±2.1 vs 18.3±2.1 years, p=0.25). Ten athletes had an isolated reduced LVEF, 10 had an isolated reduced RVEF and 11 had both a reduced LVEF and RVEF. ATrEF had similar end-diastolic volumes and cardiac mass but differed by higher end-systolic volumes.

Peak exercise LVEF and RVEF determined by exercise CMR remained lower in ATrEF (68±3 vs 73±4% and 62±6 vs 69±5%, p<0.001) but contractile reserve was greater (ΔLVEF 18±5 vs 14±4% and ΔRVEF 19±5 vs 15±5%, p<0.01).

A reduced EF was not associated with lower exercise capacity, in fact VO2max was higher in ATrEF than in ATpEF (65±6 vs 62±9mL/kg/min, p=0.020) and the percentage of predicted VO2max by the Wasserman equation were similar (151±14 vs 149±21%, p=0.533).

Fibrosis was present in 3 ATrEF and 18 ATpEF (9.7 vs 9.6%, p=0.993) and was isolated to the RV hinge-points in all but 3 ATpEF who had midmyocardial LV lateral wall fibrosis. LV systolic strain (-17.5±2.0 vs -19±2.1%, p<0.001) was lower in ATrEF whereas RV free wall systolic strain (-24.9±3.7 vs -25.1±3.5%, p=0.776) was similar. Diastolic function was normal in all ATrEF and ATpEF. Pathologic T-wave inversions were present in 2 ATrEF and 13 ATpEF (6.5 vs 7%, p=0.999). Ventricular premature beats (VPB) were infrequent but more prevalent in ATrEF than in ATpEF (2[0-18] vs 1[0-2]/24h, p=0.025; 16.1 vs 2.7% >100/24h, p=0.006).

Conclusion

A reduced ventricular EF is common in asymptomatic young elite endurance athletes, is more frequent in males but is not associated with structural, functional or electrical abnormalities apart from a minor excess in VPB.

Unearthing the evidence: post-mortem interrogation of cardiac implantable electronic devices

Background

The diagnostic yield of post-mortem interrogation of cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) including pacemakers, defibrillators and implantable loop recorders has not been well described.

Methods

We reviewed all post-mortem CIED interrogations performed by our statewide Institute of Forensic Medicine between 2005–2020 for investigation of sudden or unexplained death.

Results

260 patients (68.8% male, median age 72.8 years [IQR 62.7–82.2]) underwent post-mortem CIED interrogation (202 pacemakers, 56 defibrillators and 2 loop recorders). CIEDs were implanted for a median of 2.0 [IQR 0.75–5] years, with 19 devices requiring replacement (and 5 end of life). Post-mortem interrogation was successful in 256 (98.5%) cases. Potential CIED malfunction was identified in 21 (8.1%) cases: untreated ventricular arrhythmias (n=13), lead failures (n=3) and battery depletion (n=5). CIED interrogation directly informed cause of death in 130 (50.0%) cases, with fatal ventricular arrhythmias identified in 121 patients (46.5%). In retrospect, 72 (27.7%) patients had abnormalities recorded by their device in the 30 days preceding death: non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (n=26), rapid atrial fibrillation (n=17), longevity concerns (n=22), intrathoracic impedance alarms (n=3), lead issues (n=3) or therapy delivered (n=1). In 6 cases where the patient was found deceased after a prolonged time, CIED interrogation accurately determined time of death. In one case, CIED interrogation was the primary method of patient identification.

Conclusion

Post-mortem CIED interrogation frequently contributes important information regarding critical device malfunction, pre-mortem abnormalities, cause and time of death or patient identity. Device interrogation should be considered for select patients with CIEDs undergoing autopsy.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Impact of catheter ablation on HFpEF in people with comorbid atrial fibrillation and HFpEF using invasive haemodynamic testing

Background

The impact of catheter ablation (CA) for atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is unknown.

Objectives

To determine whether CA for AF reverses adverse haemodynamic changes associated with HFpEF.

Methods

Consecutive consenting patients with EF ≥50% scheduled for index CA underwent baseline exercise right heart catheterisation (exRHC), cardiac output (CO) measurement, cardiac MRI, echocardiogram, QOL questionnaires and BNP testing. HFpEF was defined by resting pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) ≥15mmHg or peak exercise PCWP ≥25 mmHg during exRHC. Patients with HFpEF were offered follow-up exRHC ≥6 months post-CA.

Results

Of 252 patients scheduled for CA between April 2017 and Sept 2019, 131 (51.9%) qualified for inclusion, 65 (49.6%) consented to exRHC and 11 (16.9%) were excluded due to a subsequent decrease in EF (10) and uncontrolled hypertension (1). Fifty-four underwent exRHC, with 35 (65%) meeting criteria for HFpEF. Of them 26 (74.3%) who underwent CA, 20 (77%) had a follow up exRHC at 12±6 months follow-up, showing an overall decrease in peak exercise PCWP from 30.3±4.2 to 26.8±4.7 mmHg (p<0.05). Patients without arrhythmia recurrence showed significant improvements in peak exercise PCWP (29.2±3.7 to 22.9±2.0 mmHg (p<0.01). Their cardiac output increased from 10.3±3.0 to 12.1±4.0 mmHg p=0.1), and BNP decreased from (94.6±101.6 to 38.0±34.0 mmHg (p=0.06),whereas those with arrhythmia recurrence did not. Overall, 9 patients (45.0%) no longer met criteria for HFpEF.

Conclusion

There is a high prevalence of HFpEF in people referred for AF ablation. Successful CA for AF reverses the adverse haemodynamic changes associated with HFpEF

Changes in PCWP following AF ablation

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): NHMRC, NHF, RACP

Hinge point fibrosis in athletes is not associated with structural, functional or electrical consequences: a comparison between young and middle-aged elite endurance athletes

Background

The health benefits of extensive endurance training have been debated due to the report of myocardial fibrosis (MF), arrhythmias and temporary post-race cardiac impairment in middle-aged and veteran athletes. The extent of these changes is unknown in elite young athletes.

Purpose

To assess the prevalence of MF and its structural, functional and electrical impact in highly trained young endurance athletes (YA, 15–23 years) as compared to middle-aged athletes (MA, 30–50 years). We hypothesised that MF would be more frequent in MA and associated with more structural, functional and electrical abnormalities.

Methods

We prospectively assessed 197 YA and 34 MA. All had ECG, maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) testing, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR), echocardiography and 24h-holter. Indexed left ventricular and right ventricular end diastolic volume (LVEDVi, RVEDVi), ejection fraction (LVEF, RVEF), left ventricular mass (LVMi), and MF defined as delayed gadolinium enhancement were assessed by CMR. LV and RV free wall strain (LVSL, RVfwSL) were assessed by 2D speckle tracking echocardiography. Ventricular premature beats (VPB) and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (nsVT) were assessed by 24h-holter.

Results

YA and MA (18±2 vs 38±5 years [p<0.01]; 78% vs 80% male [p=0.99]) with an elite level of fitness (VO2max 61±8 vs 54±10 mL/min/kg [p<0.01]; % predicted VO2max 150±20 vs 158±30 [p=0.02]) had a large variance in LV and RV remodelling (Figure 1). MF was seen in 28 athletes (12.5%) and more prevalent in MA than in YA (23.5 vs 10.5%, p=0.048). MF was limited to the hinge points in all 8 MA with MF and 17 YA. 3 YA had LV lateral wall subepicardial MF. 27 of 187 (14.4%) male athletes had MF compared to 1 of 50 (2%) female athletes (p=0.01).

MF+ MA(A) and YA(B) as well as MF− MA(C) and YA(D) had similar structural remodelling (LVEDVi 110±14 vs 118±14 vs 113±19 vs 110±16 mL/m2; RVEDVi 120±14 vs 128±17 vs 117±19 vs 125±23mL/m2; LVMi 77±11 vs 83±14 vs 81±14 vs 77±15g/m2, p>0.05). LVEF, LVSL and RVSL were similar (59±3 vs 58±5 vs 61±6 vs 58±6%; −18.8±2 vs −18.8±2 vs −19.8±2 vs −19.3±2%; −26.3±2.4 vs −24.4±2.4; −26.3±3 vs −25.8±3.5% respectively, p>0.05). LVEF <50% was seen in 19 (8.2%) athletes (0 [0%] vs [5%] 1 vs 1 [3.8%] vs 17 [9.6%]; p=0.51). RVEF was higher in D compared to C without further differences between groups (54±4 vs 54±6 vs 53±6 vs 57±5, p=0.005). RVEF<45% was seen 21 (9.1%) athletes (0 [0%] vs 1 [5%] vs 0 [0%] vs 20 [11.3%]; p=0.14). Abnormal T-wave inversion was similar (12.5 vs 5 vs 7.4 vs 6.2%, p=0.93) as was the prevalence of >100VPB/24h (12.5 vs 5 vs 11.1 vs 5.1%, p=0.42). 2 athletes had nsVT, both in D. All had similar exercise capacity (% predicted VO2max 157±26 vs 152±15 vs 147±24 vs 158±32%; p=0.11).

Conclusion

Hinge-point fibrosis was more prevalent in MA, possibly due to repeated hemodynamic stress during exercise, but is not associated with structural, functional or electrical consequences.

Figure 1. Cardiac remodelling in elite athletes

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (FWO)

P4423Extreme bradycardia in athletes is due to intrinsic changes within the heart

Background

It is well known that athletes and in particular endurance athletes have lower resting heart rates than non-athletes. This has generally been considered a healthy adaptation. Traditionally this was thought be due to increased vagal tone. Several studies have shown that endurance athletes continue to have lower heart rates in the absence of autonomic influence suggesting bradycardia is due to intrinsic changes within the heart. A subset of endurance athletes have very low heart rates with Tour de France cyclists having described heart rates in the 30s. It is unclear whether in these elite athletes with very low heart rates the profound bradycardia is due to autonomic influence or intrinsic changes within the heart.

Aim

The aim of this study was to determine if extreme bradycardia in athletes is due to excess vagal tone or more profound intrinsic changes within the heart.

Methods

We recruited three cohorts for this study: non-athlete controls (NA), endurance athletes with a documented resting heart rate >40 (EA) and endurance athletes with a resting heart rate <40 (BA). All participants underwent baseline testing including ECG, echocardiography and VO2 max testing. All participants came back on a second occasion for treatment with dual autonomic blockade (DAB) to determine intrinsic heart rate in the following manner. After resting supine for five minutes resting heart rate was measured. Participants were then administered 0.04mg/kg of intravenous atropine. After five minutes participants were then administered 0.05mg/kg of intravenous metoprolol. This was repeated every five minutes until there was no further drop in heart rate or 0.2mg/kg had been administered. The resting heart rate at this stage was recorded as the intrinsic heart rate. Parasympathetic blockade was confirmed by lack of response to Valsalva manoeuvre and sympathetic blockade was confirmed by lack of response to metoprolol. VO2 max testing was then performed to determine maximum heart rate.

Results

9 NA (7 male), 10 EA (8 male) and 5 BA (4 male) participated in this study. The average age was similar in all groups (NA 32.9y, EA 32.4y, BA 31.4y). The average resting heart rate was 71.7 in the NA group, 48.3 in the EA group and 41.6 in the BA group (p<0.05 for comparisons between all three groups). Following dual autonomic blockade resting heart rate was 86.0 in the NA group, 76.9 in the EA group and 64.4 in the BA group (p<0.05 for comparisons between all three groups). Maximum heart rate under DAB was 140.1 in the NA group, 138.0 in the EA group and 140.4 in the BA group. These differences were not significant.

Conclusion

In athletes with very low heart rates, bradycardia is due to more profound intrinsic changes within the heart.

Acknowledgement/Funding

NHMRC Project Grant

P661Nocturnal hypoxemic burden in ambulatory patients with atrial fibrillation: a disease-orientated assessment of sleep-disordered breathing severity

Background

Studies investigating the relationship between sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) and atrial fibrillation (AF) have largely assessed SDB-severity by the apnea–hypopnea index (AHI). However, the AHI does not incorporate nocturnal hypoxemic burden, which may increase the risk of non-paroxysmal AF (nPAF) as the clinical manifestation of more progressed AF substrates. This investigation sought to systematically characterize and compare the composition of AHI and hypoxemic burden with the aim to defining a disease-orientated metric for SDB-severity best associated with prevalent nPAF.

Methods

Polysomnography including overnight oximetry data were obtained in 435 consecutive ambulatory AF patients to determine the composition of AHI (apneas vs. hypopneas), the number of acute episodic desaturations per hour (oxygen desaturation index, ODI) and the composition of total time spent below 90% oxygen saturation (T90Total) attributed to acute desaturations (T90Desaturation). Logistic regression analysis was used to characterize the association with prevalent nPAF.

Results

One hundred sixty-nine AF patients (38%) had nPAF and one third (n=149, 34%) had moderate-to-severe SDB (AHI>15). 82% of the median total AHI (9.4 [3.6–20.1]) could be attributed to hypopneas. Only 29% of events were associated with episodic desaturations, which contributed to 96% (T90Desaturation) of the variation in T90Total. The high variability in durations and nadirs of distinct desaturation events can expose patients to long T90Total, even if the AHI is low. Not AHI, but T90Total and ODI were associated with nPAF independent of gender and age. However, diabetes, hypertension and body mass index contributed more significantly to the overall risk of nPAF.

Conclusions

In AF patients, hypopneas constitute a majority of respiratory events during sleep. Patients with low AHI can still be exposed to high nocturnal hypoxemic burden, which is mainly a cumulative consequence of episodic desaturations. T90Total and ODI, but not AHI, were associated with nPAF independent of gender and age, but concomitant modifiable risk factors made a more significant contribution to the overall risk of nPAF versus PAF.