Prognostic value of deep learning-derived body composition in advanced pancreatic cancer-a retrospective multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Despite the prognostic relevance of cachexia in pancreatic cancer, individual body composition has not been routinely integrated into treatment planning. In this multicenter study, we investigated the prognostic value of sarcopenia and myosteatosis automatically extracted from routine computed tomography (CT) scans of patients with advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed clinical imaging data of 601 patients from three German cancer centers. We applied a deep learning approach to assess sarcopenia by the abdominal muscle-to-bone ratio (MBR) and myosteatosis by the ratio of abdominal inter- and intramuscular fat to muscle volume. In the pooled cohort, univariable and multivariable analyses were carried out to analyze the association between body composition markers and overall survival (OS). We analyzed the relationship between body composition markers and laboratory values during the first year of therapy in a subgroup using linear regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage.

RESULTS

Deep learning-derived MBR [hazard ratio (HR) 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-0.77, P < 0.005] and myosteatosis (HR 3.73, 95% CI 1.66-8.39, P < 0.005) were significantly associated with OS in univariable analysis. In multivariable analysis, MBR (P = 0.019) and myosteatosis (P = 0.02) were associated with OS independent of age, sex, and AJCC stage. In a subgroup, MBR and myosteatosis were associated with albumin and C-reactive protein levels after initiation of therapy. Additionally, MBR was also associated with hemoglobin and total protein levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Our work demonstrates that deep learning can be applied across cancer centers to automatically assess sarcopenia and myosteatosis from routine CT scans. We highlight the prognostic role of our proposed markers and show a strong relationship with protein levels, inflammation, and anemia. In clinical practice, automated body composition analysis holds the potential to further personalize cancer treatment.

Multimodal survival prediction in advanced pancreatic cancer using machine learning

Background

Existing risk scores appear insufficient to assess the individual survival risk of patients with advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and do not take advantage of the variety of parameters that are collected during clinical care.

Methods

In this retrospective study, we built a random survival forest model from clinical data of 203 patients with advanced PDAC. The parameters were assessed before initiation of systemic treatment and included age, CA19-9, C-reactive protein, metastatic status, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and total serum protein level. Separate models including imaging and molecular parameters were built for subgroups.

Results

Over the entire cohort, a model based on clinical parameters achieved a c-index of 0.71. Our approach outperformed the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system and the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) in the identification of high- and low-risk subgroups. Inclusion of the KRAS p.G12D mutational status could further improve the prediction, whereas radiomics data of the primary tumor only showed little benefit. In an external validation cohort of PDAC patients with liver metastases, our model achieved a c-index of 0.67 (mGPS: 0.59).

Conclusions

The combination of multimodal data and machine-learning algorithms holds potential for personalized prognostication in advanced PDAC already at diagnosis.

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We developed a machine-learning-based prediction model that outperforms the AJCC staging system and mGPS.

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Applying our model to an external validation cohort demonstrates generalizability.

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Explainable machine learning enables to understand the decision making of our model and identifies relevant parameters.

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Combining clinical, imaging and genetic data holds potential for personalized prognostication in advanced PDAC.