Diet, cellular, and systemic homeostasis control the cycling of potassium stable isotopes in endothermic vertebrates

The naturally occurring stable isotopes of potassium (41K/39K, expressed as δ41K) have the potential to make significant contributions to vertebrate and human biology. The utility of K stable isotopes is, however, conditioned by the understanding of the dietary and biological factors controlling natural variability of δ41K. This paper reports a systematic study of K isotopes in extant terrestrial endothermic vertebrates. δ41K has been measured in 158 samples of tissues, biofluids, and excreta from 40 individuals of four vertebrate species (rat, guinea pig, pig and quail) reared in two controlled feeding experiments. We show that biological processing of K by endothermic vertebrates produces remarkable intra-organism δ41K variations of ca. 1.6‰. Dietary δ41K is the primary control of interindividual variability and δ41K of bodily K is +0.5-0.6‰ higher than diet. Such a trophic isotope effect is expected to propagate throughout trophic chains, opening promising use for reconstructing dietary behaviors in vertebrate ecosystems. In individuals, cellular δ41K is related to the intensity of K cycling and effectors of K homeostasis, including plasma membrane permeability and electrical potential. Renal and intestinal transepithelial transports also control fractionation of K isotopes. Using a box-modeling approach, we establish a first model of K isotope homeostasis. We predict a strong sensitivity of δ41K to variations of intracellular and renal K cycling in normal and pathological contexts. Thus, K isotopes constitute a promising tool for the study of K dyshomeostasis.

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures.

METHODS

In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025.

FINDINGS

Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2-6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5-5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4-10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32-4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23-11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation.

INTERPRETATION

After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Prospective Clinical Adoption of Artificial Intelligence for Organ Contouring in Head and Neck Radiation Treatment Planning

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Patients that undergo head and neck (H&N) radiation therapy (RT) require laborious delineation of organs-at-risk (OARs) on computed tomography (CT) scans in a treatment planning system (TPS) to minimize radiation to normal tissue. This task can be completed rapidly and accurately with recently developed artificial intelligence-based semantic segmentation models. The current study aims to deploy and evaluate a strategy for improving clinical practice with this technology.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Deep learning models were trained and tested with CT scans and OAR contours from previous H&N RT cases at our clinic. Two medical physicists vetted the models and selected a 2.5D U-Net for further implementation. The model was embedded in a dedicated server at the hospital, programmed to read H&N CT scans staged for import into the TPS, generate auto-contours, and write them into a TPS-compatible format made available alongside the scan. In the pilot implementation, the auto-contouring service was utilized for more than 60 cases, prospectively. The auto-contours were quantitatively evaluated against the treatment-approved contours to determine how much modification was performed by the clinical team.

RESULTS

The 2.5D U-Net selected for clinical integration segments 21 OARs in less than 3 minutes per scan. Across all the prospective cases, the mean Dice score and mean 95th percentile Hausdorff distance (mm) between the auto-contour and treatment-approved contour for each of the 21 OARs were as follows, respectively: brainstem (0.93, 1.94), optic chiasm (0.70, 2.96), left cochlea (0.69, 2.37), right cochlea (0.68, 2.44), esophagus (0.88, 2.46), left globe (0.93, 1.50), right globe (0.93, 1.63), glottis (0.91, 2.13), larynx (0.93, 2.76), mandible (0.90, 4.86), left optic nerve (0.78, 1.64), right optic nerve (0.82, 1.65), oral cavity (0.86, 8.46), left parotid gland (0.91, 2.78), right parotid gland (0.91, 2.39), pharynx (0.85, 2.39), spinal cord (0.87, 2.27), left submandibular gland (0.85, 3.46), right submandibular gland (0.83, 3.69), left temporal lobe (0.94, 2.20), and right temporal lobe (0.95, 2.09). The auto-contours for the optic chiasm, optic nerves, cochleas, and submandibular glands differed substantially from the final contours, a finding corroborated by the clinical team; the rest were clinically acceptable with minor or no edits necessary.

CONCLUSION

The proposed strategy provides a sophisticated starting point for treatment planning that has garnered overall favorable feedback from the participating radiation oncologists and dosimetrists. Consequently, the technique is being extended to other treatment sites.

Mitigation of IMRT/SBRT Treatment Planning Errors on the First Biology-Guided Radiotherapy System Using FMEA within Six Sigma Framework

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Utilize the Six Sigma methodology and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) to prevent and mitigate errors in IMRT/SBRT treatment planning with the first clinical installation of biology-guided radiotherapy (BgRT) system.

MATERIALS/METHODS

The Six Sigma approach consisted of five phases: Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control. The Define-Measure-Analyze phases consisted of process mapping and an FMEA of the IMRT/SBRT treatment planning process on the BgRT system. The multidisciplinary team outlined the workflow process and identified the failure modes associated with the plan check items using AAPM TG-100 recommendations. Items with the highest average risk priority numbers (RPN) and Severity ≥7 were prioritized for automation using the treatment planning system scripting API (ESAPI). The Improve phase consisted of developing ESAPI scripts prior to the launch of the BgRT system to improve efficiency and safety. In the Control phase, the FMEA ranking was re-evaluated 1-year post-clinical launch.

RESULTS

Overall, 100 plan check items were identified where the RPN values ranged from 10.2 to 429.0. Fifty of these items (50%) were suitable for automation within ESAPI. Of the 10 highest-risk items (Table 1), 8 were suitable for automation. Based on the results of the FMEA, two scripts were developed: Planning Assistant used by the planner during preparation for planning and the Automated Plan Check used by the planner and the plan checker during plan preparation for treatment. At 1-year post-clinical launch, the scripts were used for 80 patients successfully treated in 1747 fractions. During this period only 3 errors were reported: omitted bolus during treatment, nomenclature error in the BgRT system plan prescription, and dose tracking plan not approved following physics plan check. The average RPN pre-scripts was 138.0 compared to the average post-scripts RPN of 47.8 (p < 0.05) signifying a safer process.

CONCLUSION

Implementing new technology into the clinic can be an error-prone process where the likelihood of errors increases with increasing pressure to implement the technology quickly. To limit errors in the clinical implementation of the first BgRT system, the Six Sigma methodology was utilized to identify failure modes, establish quality control checks, and re-evaluate these checks 1-year post-clinical launch.

mTOR-dependent loss of PON1 secretion and antiphospholipid autoantibody production underlie autoimmunity-mediated cirrhosis in transaldolase deficiency

Transaldolase deficiency predisposes to chronic liver disease progressing from cirrhosis to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Transition from cirrhosis to hepatocarcinogenesis depends on mitochondrial oxidative stress, as controlled by cytosolic aldose metabolism through the pentose phosphate pathway (PPP). Progression to HCC is critically dependent on NADPH depletion and polyol buildup by aldose reductase (AR), while this enzyme protects from carbon trapping in the PPP and growth restriction in TAL deficiency. Although AR inactivation blocked susceptibility to hepatocarcinogenesis, it enhanced growth restriction, carbon trapping in the non-oxidative branch of the PPP and failed to reverse the depletion of glucose 6-phosphate (G6P) and liver cirrhosis. Here, we show that inactivation of the TAL-AR axis results in metabolic stress characterized by reduced mitophagy, enhanced overall autophagy, activation of the mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTOR), diminished glycosylation and secretion of paraoxonase 1 (PON1), production of antiphospholipid autoantibodies (aPL), loss of CD161+ NK cells, and expansion of CD38+ Ito cells, which are responsive to treatment with rapamycin in vivo. The present study thus identifies glycosylation and secretion of PON1 and aPL production as mTOR-dependent regulatory checkpoints of autoimmunity underlying liver cirrhosis in TAL deficiency.

Discriminating Mild Traumatic Brain Injury and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Using Latent Neuroimaging and Neuropsychological Profiles in Active-Duty Military Service Members

OBJECTIVE

Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) commonly occur among military Service Members and Veterans and have heterogenous, but also overlapping symptom presentations, which often complicate the diagnoses of underlying impairments and development of effective treatment plans. Thus, we sought to examine whether the combination of whole brain gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) structural measures with neuropsychological performance can aid in the classification of military personnel with mTBI and PTSD.

METHODS

Active-Duty US Service Members ( n = 156; 87.8% male) with a history of mTBI, PTSD, combined mTBI+PTSD, or orthopedic injury completed a neuropsychological battery and T1- and diffusion-weighted structural neuroimaging. Cortical, subcortical, ventricular, and WM volumes and whole brain fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), radial diffusivity (RD), and axial diffusivity (AD) were calculated. Latent profile analyses were performed to determine how the GM and WM indicators, together with neuropsychological indicators, classified individuals.

RESULTS

For both GM and WM, respectively, a 4-profile model was the best fit. The GM model identified greater ventricular volumes in Service Members with cognitive symptoms, including those with a diagnosis of mTBI, either alone or with PTSD. The WM model identified reduced FA and elevated RD in those with psychological symptoms, including those with PTSD or mTBI and comorbid PTSD. However, contrary to expectation, a global neural signature unique to those with comorbid mTBI and PTSD was not identified.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings demonstrate that neuropsychological performance alone is more robust in differentiating Active-Duty Service Members with mTBI and PTSD, whereas global neuroimaging measures do not reliably differentiate between these groups.

The relevance of false positive acid phosphatase reactions indicative of the presence of seminal fluid from oral and vaginal samples

The Body Fluid Forum of the Association of Forensic Science Providers recognised concerns raised by forensic practitioners regarding the lack of data to inform on the incidence of significant AP (Acid Phosphatase) reactions from vaginal and oral samples, i.e. those which might be misinterpreted as indicating the presence of semen. This is particularly relevant in the light of appeal court rulings regarding the need for data to support evaluations. This paper presents collaborative data on the nature and incidence of AP reactions from vaginal and oral swabs provided by donors. The results demonstrate that caution is required with mid to strong purple AP reactions from direct testing of oral swabs and with mid purple reactions from vaginal swabs. The use of a Bayesian approach to assist with the provision of opinions regarding the presence of seminal fluid is highlighted.

Cytosolic aldose metabolism contributes to progression from cirrhosis to hepatocarcinogenesis

Oxidative stress modulates carcinogenesis in the liver; however, direct evidence for metabolic control of oxidative stress during pathogenesis, particularly, of progression from cirrhosis to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), has been lacking. Deficiency of transaldolase (TAL), a rate-limiting enzyme of the non-oxidative branch of the pentose phosphate pathway (PPP), restricts growth and predisposes to cirrhosis and HCC in mice and humans. Here, we show that mitochondrial oxidative stress and progression from cirrhosis to HCC and acetaminophen-induced liver necrosis are critically dependent on NADPH depletion and polyol buildup by aldose reductase (AR), while this enzyme protects from carbon trapping in the PPP and growth restriction in TAL deficiency. Both TAL and AR are confined to the cytosol; however, their inactivation distorts mitochondrial redox homeostasis in opposite directions. The results suggest that AR acts as a rheostat of carbon recycling and NADPH output of the PPP with broad implications for disease progression from cirrhosis to HCC.

A systematic review of the global prevalence and incidence of shoulder pain

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Studies reporting on the population burden of people living with shoulder pain show wide heterogeneity in terms of case definition, study samples, and occurrence. This systematic review aims to summarize evidence pertaining to the prevalence and incidence of shoulder pain, including variability based on sex and geography. We also explored the potential influence of methodological limitations and important sources of heterogeneity (case definition and reference period) on reported estimates of shoulder pain prevalence.

DATABASES AND DATA TREATMENT

The study protocol was registered on Prospero under CRD42021243140. We searched EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science and Medline from inception to March 2021. Study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessment was conducted by a team of three researchers. We performed a narrative synthesis of the data, using forest plots to summarize study findings, and stratified data presentation to explore the potential association of risk of bias, case definition, and reference period with estimates of prevalence and incidence of shoulder pain.

RESULTS

We obtained data from 61 studies reporting data from high-, middle- and low-income countries. The overall risk of bias was low, with most rated as "low-risk" and no studies rated as "high-risk". The community prevalence of shoulder pain varied widely across the countries included in our review, with a median of 16% (range 0.67 to 55.2%). Longer reference periods were typically associated with higher prevalence estimates. Primary care prevalence ranged from 1.01 to 4.84% (median 2.36%). Estimates were generally higher for women than men and were higher in high-income nations. The incidence of shoulder pain ranged from 7.7 to 62 per 1000 persons per year (median 37.8 per 1000 persons per year). Risk of bias did not clearly explain variability in study findings, but there was considerable variation in study samples, methods used, and a relative absence of data from low-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review demonstrates that a significant proportion of the population across the world will experience shoulder pain daily, yearly, and throughout a lifetime. Regional gaps in evidence and methodological inconsistencies must be addressed in order to establish a more definitive global burden.

Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled

The IPCC's scientific assessment of the timing of net-zero emissions and 2030 emission reduction targets consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C rests on large scenario databases. Updates to this assessment, such as between the IPCC's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) of warming and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), are the result of intertwined, sometimes opaque, factors. Here we isolate one factor: the Earth System Model emulators used to estimate the global warming implications of scenarios. We show that warming projections using AR6-calibrated emulators are consistent, to within around 0.1°C, with projections made by the emulators used in SR1.5. The consistency is due to two almost compensating changes: the increase in assessed historical warming between SR1.5 (based on AR5) and AR6, and a reduction in projected warming due to improved agreement between the emulators' response to emissions and the assessment to which it is calibrated.

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge.

METHODS

The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing.

FINDINGS

2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters.

INTERPRETATION

The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Successful outcomes using Long Acting Buprenorphine (LAB - Buvidal) to treat Codeine, Tramadol and other Opioid Analgesia Dependencies (OAD) in Wales during the Pandemic

Introduction

Long Acting Buprenorphine (LAB) – Buvidal (CAM2038) – is a prolonged release treatment for opioid dependence in adults. Its extensive use was funded by Welsh Government during the pandemic in Wales and it has been found to be a significantly better than oral medications in improving quality of life, possibly through providing allostatic craving and anxiety reduction

Objectives

This is a case series of 10 patients who were referred to Community Addiction Services in North and South West Wales with OAD.

Methods

Patients were mainly using Codeine or Tramadol and were referred due to either ongoing illicit use or via primary care services requesting support. As part of the pandemic initiative, they were initiated on Buvidal and followed up.

Results

All ten patients successfully started on Buvidal without significant issues. As a group, if transferred straight to Buvidal, they tended to have fewer significant withdrawal symptoms prior to starting on the Buvidal compared to those on Methadone or Heroin. They were treated on the usual range of Buvidal doses (1 on 64mg, the others on 96-128mg monthly). They have all stabilised and successfully moved on with their lives on Buvidal. One has used the time on Buvidal to have psychological input around past traumas and successfully detoxified in the community using Buvidal.

Conclusions

Recommendations for services considering OAD - it is a surprisingly effective treatment which is easy to start. It has the scope for being both an effective OAD recovery medication and a potentially simple detoxification strategy for this patient group.

Disclosure

Professor Melichar has provided consultancy work, presentations, training and chaired panel discussions for all the companies in this area in the UK and some outside the UK. Recent work includes Althea (UK), Britannia (UK), Camurus (UK and Global), Martin

Missed opportunities for diagnosis and treatment in patients with TB symptoms: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The identification of patients with symptoms is the foundation of facility-based TB screening and diagnosis, but underdiagnosis is common. We conducted this systematic review with the hypothesis that underdiagnosis is largely secondary to patient drop out along the diagnostic and care pathway.

METHODS

We searched (up to 22 January 2019) MEDLINE, Embase, and Cinahl for studies investigating patient pathway to TB diagnosis and care at health facilities. We used Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) to assess risk of bias. We reported proportions of patients with symptoms at each stage of the pathway from symptom screening to treatment initiation.

RESULTS

After screening 3,558 abstracts, we identified 16 eligible studies. None provided data addressing the full cascade of care from clinical presentation to treatment initiation in the same patient population. Symptom screening, the critical entry point for diagnosis of TB, was not done for 33-96% of participants with symptoms in the three studies that reported this outcome. The proportion of attendees with symptoms offered a diagnostic investigation (data available for 15 studies) was very low with a study level median of 38% (IQR 14-44, range 4-84).

CONCLUSIONS

Inefficiencies of the TB symptom screen-based patient pathway are a major contributor to underdiagnosis of TB, reflecting inconsistent implementation of guidelines to ask all patients attending health facilities about respiratory symptoms and to offer diagnostic tests to all patients promptly once TB symptoms are identified. Better screening tools and interventions to improve the efficiency of TB screening and diagnosis pathways in health facilities are urgently needed.

Evidence for X(3872) in Pb-Pb Collisions and Studies of its Prompt Production at sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02 TeV

The first evidence for X(3872) production in relativistic heavy ion collisions is reported. The X(3872) production is studied in lead-lead (Pb-Pb) collisions at a center-of-mass energy of sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02  TeV per nucleon pair, using the decay chain X(3872)→J/ψπ^{+}π^{-}→μ^{+}μ^{-}π^{+}π^{-}. The data were recorded with the CMS detector in 2018 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 1.7  nb^{-1}. The measurement is performed in the rapidity and transverse momentum ranges |y|<1.6 and 15<p_{T}<50  GeV/c. The significance of the inclusive X(3872) signal is 4.2 standard deviations. The prompt X(3872) to ψ2S yield ratio is found to be ρ^{Pb-Pb}=1.08±0.49(stat)±0.52(syst), to be compared with typical values of 0.1 for pp collisions. This result provides a unique experimental input to theoretical models of the X(3872) production mechanism, and of the nature of this exotic state.

An evaluation of the Chesapeake Bay management strategy to improve water quality in small agricultural watersheds

Chesapeake Bay water quality has been a concern since 1970. In rural areas, agriculture is the dominant N and P source, and the voluntary application of best management practices (BMPs) is the primary management tool. Here we test the hypothesis that the current management approach of primarily voluntary, untargeted BMP implementation is insufficient to create detectable, widespread reductions in N, P, and total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations in agricultural watersheds of the Choptank basin, a tributary of Chesapeake Bay. To test this hypothesis, we assessed BMP implementation and sampled water quality on participating farms, at intermediate streams within each watershed, and at watershed outlets of four watersheds from 2013 to 2014. We also present water quality data from 2003 to 2014 at the outlets of 12 additional agricultural and one forested watershed and survey-directed interviews of farmers. By the end of 2014, large numbers of BMPs, both structural and cultural, had been implemented. Of the 16 agricultural watersheds, 50% showed significant decreases in baseflow N, 37.5% showed no changes, and 12.5% showed increasing TN. Baseflow P significantly decreased at just one watershed, increased at one, and remained stable at 14. Stormflow N was similar to baseflow, but stormflow P was 5 times higher than baseflow. These data partially support our hypothesis. Surveys suggested farmers considered themselves responsible for the quality of water leaving their farms, but out-of-pocket cost was the major impediment to further BMP adoption. We suggest that greater outreach and more financial support for farmers to implement BMPs is required to increase the types and densities of BMPs needed to achieve regional water quality goals.

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge in an internally self-consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain-specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low-emissions SSP1-1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850-1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850-1900 and 1995-2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long-term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.

Biomechanical demands of percussive techniques in the context of early stone toolmaking

Recent discoveries in archaeology and palaeoanthropology highlight that stone tool knapping could have emerged first within the genera Australopithecus or Kenyanthropus rather than Homo. To explore the implications of this hypothesis determining the physical demands and motor control needed for performing the percussive movements during the oldest stone toolmaking technology (i.e. Lomekwian) would help. We analysed the joint angle patterns and muscle activity of a knapping expert using three stone tool replication techniques: unipolar flaking on the passive hammer (PH), bipolar (BP) flaking on the anvil, and multidirectional and multifacial flaking with free hand (FH). PH presents high levels of activity for Biceps brachii and wrist extensors and flexors. By contrast, BP and FH are characterized by high solicitation of forearm pronation. The synergy analyses depict a high muscular and kinematic coordination. Whereas the muscle pattern is very close between the techniques, the kinematic pattern is more variable, especially for PH. FH displays better muscle coordination and conversely lesser joint angle coordination. These observations suggest that the transition from anvil and hammer to freehand knapping techniques in early hominins would have been made possible by the acquisition of a behavioural repertoire producing an evolutionary advantage that gradually would have been beneficial for stone tool production.

Does nosocomial COVID-19 result in increased 30-day mortality? A multi-centre observational study to identify risk factors for worse outcomes in patients with COVID-19

This study aimed to determine whether nosocomial coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a worse outcome compared with community-acquired COVID-19. This was a prospective cohort study of all hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 in three acute hospitals on 9th April 2020. Patients were followed-up for at least 30 days. Nosocomial infection was defined as a positive swab after 7 days of admission. In total, one hundred and seventy-three patients were identified, and 19 (11.0%) had nosocomial infection. Thirty-two (18.5%) patients died within 30 days (all cause) of a positive swab test; there were no significant differences in 30-day all-cause mortality rates between the three groups (i.e. patients admitted with suspected COVID-19, patients with incidental COVID-19 and patients with nosocomial COVID-19): 21.1% vs 17.6% vs 21.6% (P=0.755). Nosocomial COVID-19 is not associated with increased mortality compared with community-acquired COVID-19.

Evidence for Top Quark Production in Nucleus-Nucleus Collisions

Ultrarelativistic heavy ion collisions recreate in the laboratory the thermodynamical conditions prevailing in the early universe up to 10^{-6}  sec, thereby allowing the study of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP), a state of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) matter with deconfined partons. The top quark, the heaviest elementary particle known, is accessible in nucleus-nucleus collisions at the CERN LHC, and constitutes a novel probe of the QGP. Here, we report the first evidence for the production of top quarks in nucleus-nucleus collisions, using lead-lead collision data at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV recorded by the CMS experiment. Two methods are used to measure the cross section for top quark pair production (σ_{tt[over ¯]}) via the selection of charged leptons (electrons or muons) and bottom quarks. One method relies on the leptonic information alone, and the second one exploits, in addition, the presence of bottom quarks. The measured cross sections, σ_{tt[over ¯]}=2.54_{-0.74}^{+0.84} and 2.03_{-0.64}^{+0.71}  μb, respectively, are compatible with expectations from scaled proton-proton data and QCD predictions.

A Deep Neural Network for Simultaneous Estimation of b Jet Energy and Resolution

We describe a method to obtain point and dispersion estimates for the energies of jets arising from b quarks produced in proton-proton collisions at an energy ofs = 13 TeV at the CERN LHC. The algorithm is trained on a large sample of simulated b jets and validated on data recorded by the CMS detector in 2017 corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 41fb - 1 . A multivariate regression algorithm based on a deep feed-forward neural network employs jet composition and shape information, and the properties of reconstructed secondary vertices associated with the jet. The results of the algorithm are used to improve the sensitivity of analyses that make use of b jets in the final state, such as the observation of Higgs boson decay to b b ¯ .

Observation of the Production of Three Massive Gauge Bosons at sqrt[s]=13 TeV

The first observation is reported of the combined production of three massive gauge bosons (VVV with V=W, Z) in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The analysis is based on a data sample recorded by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137  fb^{-1}. The searches for individual WWW, WWZ, WZZ, and ZZZ production are performed in final states with three, four, five, and six leptons (electrons or muons), or with two same-sign leptons plus one or two jets. The observed (expected) significance of the combined VVV production signal is 5.7 (5.9) standard deviations and the corresponding measured cross section relative to the standard model prediction is 1.02_{-0.23}^{+0.26}. The significances of the individual WWW and WWZ production are 3.3 and 3.4 standard deviations, respectively. Measured production cross sections for the individual triboson processes are also reported.

Search for physics beyond the standard model in events with jets and two same-sign or at least three charged leptons in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

A data sample of events from proton-proton collisions with at least two jets, and two isolated same-sign or three or more charged leptons, is studied in a search for signatures of new physics phenomena. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb - 1 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV , collected in 2016-2018 by the CMS experiment at the LHC. The search is performed using a total of 168 signal regions defined using several kinematic variables. The properties of the events are found to be consistent with the expectations from standard model processes. Exclusion limits at 95% confidence level are set on cross sections for the pair production of gluinos or squarks for various decay scenarios in the context of supersymmetric models conserving or violating R parity. The observed lower mass limits are as large as 2.1 TeV for gluinos and 0.9 TeV for top and bottom squarks. To facilitate reinterpretations, model-independent limits are provided in a set of simplified signal regions.

Study of central exclusive production in proton-proton collisions at s = 5.02 and 13TeV

Central exclusive and semiexclusive production of pairs is measured with the CMS detector in proton-proton collisions at the LHC at center-of-mass energies of 5.02 and 13TeV. The theoretical description of these nonperturbative processes, which have not yet been measured in detail at the LHC, poses a significant challenge to models. The two pions are measured and identified in the CMS silicon tracker based on specific energy loss, whereas the absence of other particles is ensured by calorimeter information. The total and differential cross sections of exclusive and semiexclusive central production are measured as functions of invariant mass, transverse momentum, and rapidity of the system in the fiducial region defined as transverse momentum and pseudorapidity . The production cross sections for the four resonant channels , , , and are extracted using a simple model. These results represent the first measurement of this process at the LHC collision energies of 5.02 and 13TeV.