Investigating the prediction of CpG methylation levels from SNP genotype data to help elucidate relationships between methylation, gene expression and complex traits

As popularised by PrediXcan (and related methods), transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS), in which gene expression is imputed from single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes and tested for association with a phenotype, are a popular approach for investigating the role of gene expression in complex traits. Like gene expression, DNA methylation is an important biological process and, being under genetic regulation, may be imputable from SNP genotypes. Here, we investigate prediction of CpG methylation levels from SNP genotype data to help elucidate relationships between methylation, gene expression and complex traits. We start by examining how well CpG methylation can be predicted from SNP genotypes, comparing three penalised regression approaches and examining whether changing the window size improves prediction accuracy. Although methylation at most CpG sites cannot be accurately predicted from SNP genotypes, for a subset it can be predicted well. We next apply our methylation prediction models (trained using the optimal method and window size) to carry out a methylome-wide association study (MWAS) of primary biliary cholangitis. We intersect the regions identified via MWAS with those identified via TWAS, providing insight into the interplay between CpG methylation, gene expression and disease status. We conclude that MWAS has the potential to improve understanding of biological mechanisms in complex traits.

An international genome-wide meta-analysis of primary biliary cholangitis: Novel risk loci and candidate drugs

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic liver disease in which autoimmune destruction of the small intrahepatic bile ducts eventually leads to cirrhosis. Many patients have inadequate response to licensed medications, motivating the search for novel therapies. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and meta-analyses (GWMA) of PBC have identified numerous risk loci for this condition, providing insight into its aetiology. We undertook the largest GWMA of PBC to date, aiming to identify additional risk loci and prioritise candidate genes for in silico drug efficacy screening.

METHODS

We combined new and existing genotype data for 10,516 cases and 20,772 controls from 5 European and 2 East Asian cohorts.

RESULTS

We identified 56 genome-wide significant loci (20 novel) including 46 in European, 13 in Asian, and 41 in combined cohorts; and a 57th genome-wide significant locus (also novel) in conditional analysis of the European cohorts. Candidate genes at newly identified loci include FCRL3, INAVA, PRDM1, IRF7, CCR6, CD226, and IL12RB1, which each play key roles in immunity. Pathway analysis reiterated the likely importance of pattern recognition receptor and TNF signalling, JAK-STAT signalling, and differentiation of T helper (TH)1 and TH17 cells in the pathogenesis of this disease. Drug efficacy screening identified several medications predicted to be therapeutic in PBC, some of which are well-established in the treatment of other autoimmune disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has identified additional risk loci for PBC, provided a hierarchy of agents that could be trialled in this condition, and emphasised the value of genetic and genomic approaches to drug discovery in complex disorders.

LAY SUMMARY

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic liver disease that eventually leads to cirrhosis. In this study, we analysed genetic information from 10,516 people with PBC and 20,772 healthy individuals recruited in Canada, China, Italy, Japan, the UK, or the USA. We identified several genetic regions associated with PBC. Each of these regions contains several genes. For each region, we used diverse sources of evidence to help us choose the gene most likely to be involved in causing PBC. We used these 'candidate genes' to help us identify medications that are currently used for treatment of other conditions, which might also be useful for treatment of PBC.

Investigation of prediction accuracy and the impact of sample size, ancestry, and tissue in transcriptome-wide association studies

In transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS), gene expression values are predicted using genotype data and tested for association with a phenotype. The power of this approach to detect associations relies, at least in part, on the accuracy of the prediction. Here we compare the prediction accuracy of six different methods-LASSO, Ridge regression, Elastic net, Best Linear Unbiased Predictor, Bayesian Sparse Linear Mixed Model, and Random Forests-by performing cross-validation using data from the Geuvadis Project. We also examine prediction accuracy (a) at different sample sizes, (b) when ancestry of the prediction model training and testing populations is different, and (c) when the tissue used to train the model is different from the tissue to be predicted. We find that, for most genes, the expression cannot be accurately predicted, but in general sparse statistical models tend to outperform polygenic models at prediction. Average prediction accuracy is reduced when the model training set size is reduced or when predicting across ancestries and is marginally reduced when predicting across tissues. We conclude that using sparse statistical models and the development of large reference panels across multiple ethnicities and tissues will lead to better prediction of gene expression, and thus may improve TWAS power.