Food insecurity during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in four African countries

We document trends in food security up to one full year after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in four African countries. Using household-level data collected by the World Bank, we highlight differences over time amid the pandemic, between rural and urban areas, and between female-headed and male-headed households within Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria. We first observe a sharp increase in food insecurity during the early months of the pandemic with a subsequent gradual decline. Next, we find that food insecurity has increased more in rural areas than in urban areas relative to pre-pandemic data within each of these countries. Finally, we do not find a systematic difference in changes in food insecurity between female-headed and male-headed households. These trends complement previous microeconomic analysis studying short-term changes in food security associated with the pandemic and existing macroeconomic projections.

Contract farming and rural transformation: Evidence from a field experiment in Benin

Contract farming has emerged as a popular mechanism to encourage vertical coordination in developing country agriculture. Yet, there is a lack of consensus on its ability to spur structural transformation in rural economies. We present results from a field experiment on contract farming for rice production in Benin. While all contracts have positive effects on welfare and productivity measures, we find that the simplest contract has impacts nearly as large as contracts with additional attributes. This suggests that once price risk is resolved through the offer of a fixed-price contract, farmers are able to address other constraints on their own.

Socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 in low-income countries

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and attempts to limit its spread have resulted in a contraction of the global economy. Here we document the socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic among households, adults and children in low-income countries. To do so, we rely on longitudinal household survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria and Uganda, originating from pre-COVID-19 face-to-face household surveys plus phone surveys implemented during the pandemic. We estimate that 256 million individuals-77% of the population-live in households that have lost income during the pandemic. Attempts to cope with this loss are exacerbated by food insecurity and an inability to access medicine and staple foods. Finally, we find that student-teacher contact has dropped from a pre-COVID-19 rate of 96% to just 17% among households with school-aged children. These findings can inform decisions by governments and international organizations on measures to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Conservation agriculture and climate resilience

Agricultural productivity growth is vital for economic and food security outcomes which are threatened by climate change. In response, governments and development agencies are encouraging the adoption of 'climate-smart' agricultural technologies, such as conservation agriculture (CA). However, there is little rigorous evidence that demonstrates the effect of CA on production or climate resilience, and what evidence exists is hampered by selection bias. Using panel data from Zimbabwe, we test how CA performs during extreme rainfall events - both shortfalls and surpluses. We control for the endogenous adoption decision and find that use of CA in years of average rainfall results in no yield gains, and in some cases yield loses. However, CA is effective in mitigating the negative impacts of deviations in rainfall. We conclude that the lower yields during normal rainfall seasons may be a proximate factor in low uptake of CA. Policy should focus promotion of CA on these climate resilience benefits.

Welfare impacts of improved chickpea adoption: A pathway for rural development in Ethiopia?

We analyse the impact of improved chickpea adoption on welfare in Ethiopia using three rounds of panel data. First, we estimate the determinants of improved chickpea adoption using a double hurdle model. We apply a control function approach with correlated random effects to control for possible endogeneity resulting from access to improved seed and technology transfer activities. To instrument for these variables we develop novel distance weighted measures of a household's neighbours' access to improved seed and technology transfer activities. Second, we estimate the impact of area under improved chickpea cultivation on household income and poverty. We apply a fixed effects instrumental variables approach where we use the predicted area under cultivation from the double hurdle model as an instrument for observed area under cultivation. We find that improved chickpea adoption significantly increases household income while also reducing household poverty. Finally, we disaggregate results by landholding to explore whether the impact of adoption has heterogeneous effects. Adoption favoured all but the largest landholders, for who the new technology did not have a significant impact on income. Overall, increasing access to improved chickpea appears a promising pathway for rural development in Ethiopia's chickpea growing regions.