Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.1

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was released to the public, incorporating a large number of science updates and extended capabilities over the previous release version of the model (v5.0.2). These updates include the following: improvements in the meteorological calculations in both CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model used to provide meteorological fields to CMAQ, updates to the gas and aerosol chemistry, revisions to the calculations of clouds and photolysis, and improvements to the dry and wet deposition in the model. Sensitivity simulations isolating several of the major updates to the modeling system show that changes to the meteorological calculations result in enhanced afternoon and early evening mixing in the model, periods when the model historically underestimates mixing. This enhanced mixing results in higher ozone (O₃) mixing ratios on average due to reduced NO titration, and lower fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations due to greater dilution of primary pollutants (e.g., elemental and organic carbon). Updates to the clouds and photolysis calculations greatly improve consistency between the WRF and CMAQ models and result in generally higher O₃ mixing ratios, primarily due to reduced cloudiness and attenuation of photolysis in the model. Updates to the aerosol chemistry result in higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in the summer, thereby reducing summertime PM_2.5 bias (PM_2.5 is typically underestimated by CMAQ in the summer), while updates to the gas chemistry result in slightly higher O₃ and PM_2.5 on average in January and July. Overall, the seasonal variation in simulated PM_2.5 generally improves in CMAQv5.1 (when considering all model updates), as simulated PM_2.5 concentrations decrease in the winter (when PM_2.5 is generally overestimated by CMAQ) and increase in the summer (when PM_2.5 is generally underestimated by CMAQ). Ozone mixing ratios are higher on average with v5.1 vs. v5.0.2, resulting in higher O₃ mean bias, as O₃ tends to be overestimated by CMAQ throughout most of the year (especially at locations where the observed O₃ is low); however, O₃ correlation is largely improved with v5.1. Sensitivity simulations for several hypothetical emission reduction scenarios show that v5.1 tends to be slightly more responsive to reductions in NO _x (NO + NO₂), VOC and SO _x (SO₂ + SO₄) emissions than v5.0.2, representing an improvement as previous studies have shown CMAQ to underestimate the observed reduction in O₃ due to large, widespread reductions in observed emissions.

Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.1

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was released to the public, incorporating a large number of science updates and extended capabilities over the previous release version of the model (v5.0.2). These updates include the following: improvements in the meteorological calculations in both CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model used to provide meteorological fields to CMAQ, updates to the gas and aerosol chemistry, revisions to the calculations of clouds and photolysis, and improvements to the dry and wet deposition in the model. Sensitivity simulations isolating several of the major updates to the modeling system show that changes to the meteorological calculations result in enhanced afternoon and early evening mixing in the model, periods when the model historically underestimates mixing. This enhanced mixing results in higher ozone (O₃) mixing ratios on average due to reduced NO titration, and lower fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations due to greater dilution of primary pollutants (e.g., elemental and organic carbon). Updates to the clouds and photolysis calculations greatly improve consistency between the WRF and CMAQ models and result in generally higher O₃ mixing ratios, primarily due to reduced cloudiness and attenuation of photolysis in the model. Updates to the aerosol chemistry result in higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in the summer, thereby reducing summertime PM_2.5 bias (PM_2.5 is typically underestimated by CMAQ in the summer), while updates to the gas chemistry result in slightly higher O₃ and PM_2.5 on average in January and July. Overall, the seasonal variation in simulated PM_2.5 generally improves in CMAQv5.1 (when considering all model updates), as simulated PM_2.5 concentrations decrease in the winter (when PM_2.5 is generally overestimated by CMAQ) and increase in the summer (when PM_2.5 is generally underestimated by CMAQ). Ozone mixing ratios are higher on average with v5.1 vs. v5.0.2, resulting in higher O₃ mean bias, as O₃ tends to be overestimated by CMAQ throughout most of the year (especially at locations where the observed O₃ is low); however, O₃ correlation is largely improved with v5.1. Sensitivity simulations for several hypothetical emission reduction scenarios show that v5.1 tends to be slightly more responsive to reductions in NO _x (NO + NO₂), VOC and SO _x (SO₂ + SO₄) emissions than v5.0.2, representing an improvement as previous studies have shown CMAQ to underestimate the observed reduction in O₃ due to large, widespread reductions in observed emissions.

Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.1

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was released to the public, incorporating a large number of science updates and extended capabilities over the previous release version of the model (v5.0.2). These updates include the following: improvements in the meteorological calculations in both CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model used to provide meteorological fields to CMAQ, updates to the gas and aerosol chemistry, revisions to the calculations of clouds and photolysis, and improvements to the dry and wet deposition in the model. Sensitivity simulations isolating several of the major updates to the modeling system show that changes to the meteorological calculations result in enhanced afternoon and early evening mixing in the model, periods when the model historically underestimates mixing. This enhanced mixing results in higher ozone (O₃) mixing ratios on average due to reduced NO titration, and lower fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations due to greater dilution of primary pollutants (e.g., elemental and organic carbon). Updates to the clouds and photolysis calculations greatly improve consistency between the WRF and CMAQ models and result in generally higher O₃ mixing ratios, primarily due to reduced cloudiness and attenuation of photolysis in the model. Updates to the aerosol chemistry result in higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in the summer, thereby reducing summertime PM_2.5 bias (PM_2.5 is typically underestimated by CMAQ in the summer), while updates to the gas chemistry result in slightly higher O₃ and PM_2.5 on average in January and July. Overall, the seasonal variation in simulated PM_2.5 generally improves in CMAQv5.1 (when considering all model updates), as simulated PM_2.5 concentrations decrease in the winter (when PM_2.5 is generally overestimated by CMAQ) and increase in the summer (when PM_2.5 is generally underestimated by CMAQ). Ozone mixing ratios are higher on average with v5.1 vs. v5.0.2, resulting in higher O₃ mean bias, as O₃ tends to be overestimated by CMAQ throughout most of the year (especially at locations where the observed O₃ is low); however, O₃ correlation is largely improved with v5.1. Sensitivity simulations for several hypothetical emission reduction scenarios show that v5.1 tends to be slightly more responsive to reductions in NO _x (NO + NO₂), VOC and SO _x (SO₂ + SO₄) emissions than v5.0.2, representing an improvement as previous studies have shown CMAQ to underestimate the observed reduction in O₃ due to large, widespread reductions in observed emissions.

Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.1

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was released to the public, incorporating a large number of science updates and extended capabilities over the previous release version of the model (v5.0.2). These updates include the following: improvements in the meteorological calculations in both CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model used to provide meteorological fields to CMAQ, updates to the gas and aerosol chemistry, revisions to the calculations of clouds and photolysis, and improvements to the dry and wet deposition in the model. Sensitivity simulations isolating several of the major updates to the modeling system show that changes to the meteorological calculations result in enhanced afternoon and early evening mixing in the model, periods when the model historically underestimates mixing. This enhanced mixing results in higher ozone (O3) mixing ratios on average due to reduced NO titration, and lower fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations due to greater dilution of primary pollutants (e.g., elemental and organic carbon). Updates to the clouds and photolysis calculations greatly improve consistency between the WRF and CMAQ models and result in generally higher O3 mixing ratios, primarily due to reduced cloudiness and attenuation of photolysis in the model. Updates to the aerosol chemistry result in higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in the summer, thereby reducing summertime PM2.5 bias (PM2.5 is typically underestimated by CMAQ in the summer), while updates to the gas chemistry result in slightly higher O3 and PM2.5 on average in January and July. Overall, the seasonal variation in simulated PM2.5 generally improves in CMAQv5.1 (when considering all model updates), as simulated PM2.5 concentrations decrease in the winter (when PM2.5 is generally overestimated by CMAQ) and increase in the summer (when PM2.5 is generally underestimated by CMAQ). Ozone mixing ratios are higher on average with v5.1 vs. v5.0.2, resulting in higher O3 mean bias, as O3 tends to be overestimated by CMAQ throughout most of the year (especially at locations where the observed O3 is low); however, O3 correlation is largely improved with v5.1. Sensitivity simulations for several hypothetical emission reduction scenarios show that v5.1 tends to be slightly more responsive to reductions in NO x (NO + NO2), VOC and SO x (SO2 + SO4) emissions than v5.0.2, representing an improvement as previous studies have shown CMAQ to underestimate the observed reduction in O3 due to large, widespread reductions in observed emissions.

Radiotherapy for recurrent choroidal neovascularisation complicating age related macular degeneration

AIMS

To report the safety and visual outcome data of external beam irradiation for recurrent choroidal neovascularisation complicating age related macular degeneration.

METHODS

Eighteen consecutive eyes received external beam irradiation with seven fractions of 2 Gy (total dose 14 Gy). The next 16 consecutive eyes received external beam irradiation with five fractions of 3 Gy (total dose 15 Gy). Main outcome measure was change in visual acuity. Secondary outcome variables were contrast sensitivity and fundus photographic/fluorescein angiographic progression.

RESULTS

The 3 Gy fraction group lost fewer lines of distance visual acuity at the three and six month follow up. At one year follow up, this difference was not maintained with 2 Gy fraction and 3 Gy fraction eyes. At one year follow up a decrease in visual acuity of three or more lines (moderate visual loss) occurred in 58% of 2 Gy and 42% of 3 Gy fraction eyes (p<0.36). At one year follow up a decrease in visual acuity of six or more lines (severe visual loss) occurred in 41% of 2 Gy eyes and 17% of 3 Gy eyes (p<0.23). At three months follow up, 3 Gy eyes were less likely (0%) than 2 Gy eyes (47%) to show moderate visual loss (p<0.003). However, Kaplan Meier curves estimate a significantly lower rate of severe visual loss in the 3 Gy group (p = 0.02). There were no significant differences in contrast sensitivity loss or fluorescein angiographic stabilisation rates. No evidence of radiation toxicity was observed.

CONCLUSION

Our results are consistent with trends for a palliative benefit with higher fraction sizes and doses. The radiobiologic differences between low and high fraction size groups in this study are modest and correlate with the modest and short term difference in visual outcomes. These trends support further investigation of radiotherapy using fraction sizes of 4 Gy or higher.

Mammography of women with suspicious breast lumps

We analyzed 342 women who had suspicious breast lumps to determine if preoperative mammography could improve the malignancy yield of biopsy procedures. The number of women with cancer of the breast and false-negative mammogram reports ranged from 11% to 25%, depending on how equivocal mammogram reports were interpreted. Therefore, women with clinically suspicious breast lumps should undergo biopsy regardless of mammographic findings. A significant difference in the mean (+/- SD) predictive value of a positive mammogram existed between women above and below the age of 50 years (80 +/- 8 vs 43 +/- 14) because of the age-specific relative prevalence of benign and malignant disease, and because mammography had difficulty distinguishing between benign and malignant lumps (specificity, 70). Preoperative mammography of women with suspicious breast lumps is indicated to screen for occult carcinoma, to prevent biopsy sampling errors, and to judge the adequacy of lumpectomy if the lesion is malignant.