Street-drug lethality index: A novel methodology for predicting unintentional drug overdose fatalities in population research

BACKGROUND

Emerging evidence suggests the composition of local illicit drug markets varies over time and the availability and relative lethality of illicit drugs may contribute to temporal trends in overdose mortality. Law enforcement drug seizures represent a unique opportunity to sample the makeup of local drug markets. Prior research has associated shifts in the types of drugs seized and trends in unintentional drug overdose mortality. The present report builds on this work by demonstrating a novel methodology, the Street-Drug Lethality Index, which may serve as a low-lag predictor of unintentional overdose deaths.

METHODS

Data included administrative records of law enforcement drug seizures and unintentional drug overdose deaths in Ohio from 2009 -to- 2018. Death records and lab results from drug seizures occurring during the calendar year 2017 were transformed via the described procedure to create lethality indices for individual drugs. These indices were then summed annually to create the independent variable for a linear regression model predicting unintentional overdose deaths for all years during the study period.

RESULTS

The regression model explained 93 % of the year-to-year variance in unintentional overdose fatalities (slope = 0.009480; CI = 0.007369 to 0.011590; t10 = 10.355942; P = 0.000007; Y = 11.808982 + 0.009480X, r2 = 0.931).

CONCLUSION

These findings contribute to a growing body of evidence that changes in the composition of the drug supply may predict trends in unintentional overdose mortality. The proposed methodology might inform future overdose prevention and response efforts as well as research.

The prescription opioid and heroin crisis: a public health approach to an epidemic of addiction

Public health authorities have described, with growing alarm, an unprecedented increase in morbidity and mortality associated with use of opioid pain relievers (OPRs). Efforts to address the opioid crisis have focused mainly on reducing nonmedical OPR use. Too often overlooked, however, is the need for preventing and treating opioid addiction, which occurs in both medical and nonmedical OPR users. Overprescribing of OPRs has led to a sharp increase in the prevalence of opioid addiction, which in turn has been associated with a rise in overdose deaths and heroin use. A multifaceted public health approach that utilizes primary, secondary, and tertiary opioid addiction prevention strategies is required to effectively reduce opioid-related morbidity and mortality. We describe the scope of this public health crisis, its historical context, contributing factors, and lines of evidence indicating the role of addiction in exacerbating morbidity and mortality, and we provide a framework for interventions to address the epidemic of opioid addiction.

Impact of regulation on benzodiazepine prescribing to a low income elderly population, New York State

On 1 January 1989, in an effort to reduce diversion of benzodiazepines for illicit use and reduce inappropriate prescribing, a regulation was implemented requiring the reporting of all benzodiazepine prescriptions to the New York State Department of Health. To assess the impact of the regulation on prescribing practices to the elderly, we followed the number of benzodiazepines and other central nervous system medications prescribed to a cohort of participants in an elderly pharmaceutical insurance program. Benzodiazepines were prescribed for 4652 (22%) of the 20,944 patients studied. By the last quarter of 1989, benzodiazepines were prescribed for 3120 (15%) patients, a decrease of 33%. The number of prescriptions of benzodiazepines decreased by 5010 (45%), from 11,123 to 6113. Decreases in the number of prescriptions were similar across benzodiazepine brands (range 40-56%). Statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreases were seen in all sex, age, race and marital status groups. Increases in number (and percent increases) of prescriptions for miscellaneous anxiolytics (i.e. hydroxyzine (399, 69%), meprobamate (299, 149%), buspirone (263, 111%), chloral hydrate (138, 265%), antidepressants (658, 19%), barbiturates (150, 29%), and tranquilizers (198, 19%), some of which may be more toxic or less effective, were noted. New York State's reporting regulation was effective in reducing both the number of patients being prescribed benzodiazepines and the number of prescriptions given to those who remain on benzodiazepines in the elderly population studies.

Health and safety at the 1980 Winter Olympics, Lake Placid, New York

The 1980 Winter Olympics in Lake Placid, New York, were a spectacular demonstration of athletic ability and cooperative international competition. The spectators, athletes and officials were able to participate in the event without incident of preventable illness, injury or death because of extensive planning and work both before and during the games by the New York State Department of Health, other state agencies, and the Lake Placid Olympic Organizing Committee to provide a safe and healthful Olympics.