Integrating horizon scanning and strategic risk prioritisation using a weight of evidence framework to inform policy decisions

Poor connection between data on emerging issues and credible policy decisions continues to challenge governments, and is only likely to grow as demands on time and resources increase. Here we summarise recent efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation approaches to better connect emerging issues to the political discourse on environmental and food-related issues. Our categorisation of insights including potential future risks and opportunities to inform policy discussions has emerged from a structured three-year programme of horizon scanning for a UK pan-governmental futures partnership led by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Our efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation, utilising a qualitative weight of evidence framework, has created a systematic process for identifying all signals of potential future change with significant impact for the strategic mission and underlying values of policy actors. Our approach encourages an exploration of factors out of the control of organisations, recognising that resilience depends on the flexibility of management strategies and the preparedness to deal with a variety of unexpected outcomes. We discuss how this approach addresses key cultural and evaluative challenges that policy actors have had in embedding horizon scanning in evidence-based policy processes, and suggest further developments to build confidence in the use of horizon scanning for strategic planning.

The future water environment--using scenarios to explore the significant water management challenges in England and Wales to 2050

Society gets numerous benefits from the water environment. It is crucial to ensure that water management practices deliver these benefits over the long-term in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Currently, hydromorphological alterations and nutrient enrichment pose the greatest challenges in European water bodies. The rapidly changing climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions pose further challenges to water management decisions and the achievement of policy goals. Scenarios are a strategic tool useful in conducting systematic investigations of future uncertainties pertaining to water management. In this study, the use of scenarios revealed water management challenges for England and Wales to 2050. A set of existing scenarios relevant to river basin management were elaborated through stakeholder workshops and interviews, relying on expert knowledge to identify drivers of change, their interdependencies, and influence on system dynamics. In a set of four plausible alternative futures, the causal chain from driving forces through pressures to states, impacts and responses (DPSIR framework) was explored. The findings suggest that scenarios driven by short-term economic growth and competitiveness undermine current environmental legislative requirements and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change, producing a general deterioration of water quality and physical habitats, as well as reduced water availability with adverse implications for the environment, society and economy. Conversely, there are substantial environmental improvements under the scenarios characterised by long-term sustainability, though achieving currently desired environmental outcomes still poses challenges. The impacts vary across contrasting generic catchment types that exhibit distinct future water management challenges. The findings suggest the need to address hydromorphological alterations, nutrient enrichment and nitrates in drinking water, which are all likely to be exacerbated in the future. Future-proofing river basin management measures that deal with these challenges is crucial moving forward. The use of scenarios to future-proof strategy, policy and delivery mechanisms is discussed to inform next steps.

Survival of nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae in macrophages

In this study we have investigated the ability of nonencapsulated, nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae, NT477 to survive in the J774 mouse macrophage-like cell line. Viable, intracellular nontypeable H. influenzae could still be recovered from macrophages 72 h after phagocytosis. In contrast, H. influenzae strain Rd, an avirulent, nonencapsulated variant of a serotype d strain, was killed within 24 h. These differences suggest that NT477, in comparison to Rd, possesses unique attributes that enable it to survive in macrophages for prolonged periods. To determine whether this trait is ubiquitous amongst nontypeable H. influenzae, 33 primary clinical isolates obtained from children with otitis media were screened for their ability to survive in macrophages. Of these isolates, 82% were able to persist in an intracellular environment for periods of at least 24 h. The number of viable organisms recovered at this time ranged from 2x10(4) to 50 colony-forming units per strain indicating that the extent to which nontypeable H. influenzae can resist macrophage-mediated killing varies between strains.