Impact of AlphaFold on structure prediction of protein complexes: The CASP15-CAPRI experiment

We present the results for CAPRI Round 54, the 5th joint CASP-CAPRI protein assembly prediction challenge. The Round offered 37 targets, including 14 homodimers, 3 homo-trimers, 13 heterodimers including 3 antibody-antigen complexes, and 7 large assemblies. On average ~70 CASP and CAPRI predictor groups, including more than 20 automatics servers, submitted models for each target. A total of 21 941 models submitted by these groups and by 15 CAPRI scorer groups were evaluated using the CAPRI model quality measures and the DockQ score consolidating these measures. The prediction performance was quantified by a weighted score based on the number of models of acceptable quality or higher submitted by each group among their five best models. Results show substantial progress achieved across a significant fraction of the 60+ participating groups. High-quality models were produced for about 40% of the targets compared to 8% two years earlier. This remarkable improvement is due to the wide use of the AlphaFold2 and AlphaFold2-Multimer software and the confidence metrics they provide. Notably, expanded sampling of candidate solutions by manipulating these deep learning inference engines, enriching multiple sequence alignments, or integration of advanced modeling tools, enabled top performing groups to exceed the performance of a standard AlphaFold2-Multimer version used as a yard stick. This notwithstanding, performance remained poor for complexes with antibodies and nanobodies, where evolutionary relationships between the binding partners are lacking, and for complexes featuring conformational flexibility, clearly indicating that the prediction of protein complexes remains a challenging problem.

Hydrophobic hydration and pairwise hydrophobic interaction of Lennard-Jones and Mie particles in different water models

The study provides a deep computational analysis of the thermodynamic and structural features associated with the hydration of xenon, Xe, and its pairwise hydrophobic interaction (i.e., the potential of mean force, PMF), over a large temperature range. Xe is described both as a Lennard-Jones particle, LJ-Xe, and as a Mie particle, Mie-Xe (pseudo hard sphere). Three different water models are used: TIP3P-Ew, SPCE and TIP4P-2005. Mie-Xe is more hydrophobic than LJ-Xe due to the lack of the attractive energetic interactions with water molecules; its hydration, around room temperature, is opposed by a large and negative entropy change and a positive enthalpy change. The PMF of Mie-Xe is characterized by a deep minimum at contact distance whose depth increases with temperature, and whose magnitude is significantly larger than that obtained for LJ-Xe. The contact minimum configuration of Mie-Xe is favoured by a large positive entropy change and contrasted by a positive enthalpy change. These results are qualitatively the same regardless of the water model used. There is no clear connection between the values determined for the thermodynamic functions and the structural features of the hydration shells surrounding the single Mie-Xe and the couple of Mie-Xe particles in the contact minimum configuration. This confirms that the structural reorganization of water associated with such processes is characterized by an almost complete enthalpy-entropy compensation.

Differential hydration of dA.dT base pairing and dA and dT bulges in deoxyoligonucleotides

The role of water in the formation of stable duplexes of nucleic acids is being studied by determining the concurrent volume change, heats, and counterion uptake that accompany the duplexation process. The variability of the volume contraction that we have observed in the formation of a variety of homoduplexes suggests that sequence and conformation acutely affect the degree of hydration. We have used a combination of densimetric and calorimetric techniques to measure the change in volume and enthalpy resulting from the mixing of two complementary strands to form (a) fully paired duplexes with 10 or 11 base pairs and (b) bulged decameric duplexes with an extra dA or dT unmatched residue. We also monitored absorbance vs temperature profiles as a function of strand and salt concentration for all four duplexes. Relative to the decamer duplex, insertion of an extra dA.dT base pair to form an undecamer duplex results in a favorable enthalpy of -5.6 kcal/mol that is nearly compensated by an unfavorable entropy term of -5.1 kcal/mol. This enthalpy difference correlates with a differential uptake of water molecules, corresponding to an additional hydration of 16 mol of water molecules/mol of base pair. Relative to the fully paired duplexes, both bulged duplexes are 12-16 degrees C less stable and exhibit marginally larger counterion uptake on forming the duplex. The enthalpy change is slightly lower for the T-bulge duplex and less still for the A-bulge duplex. The volume change results indicate that an unmatched residue increases the amount of coulombic and/or structural hydration. The combined results strongly suggest that the destabilizing forces in bulged duplexes are partially compensated by an increase in hydration levels.