Improvement of scoring system used before discharge to predict 30-day all-cause unplanned readmission in geriatric population: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Data taken from tertiary referral hospitals in Indonesia suggested readmission rate in older population ranging between 18.1 and 36.3%. Thus, it is crucial to identify high risk patients who were readmitted. Our previous study found several important predictors, despite unsatisfactory discrimination value.

METHODS

We aimed to investigate whether comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) -based modification to the published seven-point scoring system may increase the discrimination value. We conducted a prospective cohort study in July-September 2022 and recruited patients aged 60 years and older admitted to the non-surgical ward and intensive coronary care unit. The ROC curve was made based on the four variables included in the prior study. We conducted bivariate and multivariate analyses, and derived a new scoring system with its discrimination value.

RESULTS

Of 235 subjects, the incidence of readmission was 32.3% (95% CI 26-38%). We established a new scoring system consisting of 4 components. The scoring system had maximum score of 21 and incorporated malignancy (6 points), delirium (4 points), length of stay ≥ 10 days (4 points), and being at risk of malnutrition or malnourished (7 points), with a good calibration test. The C-statistic value was 0.835 (95% CI 0.781-0.880). The optimal cut-off point was ≥ 8 with a sensitivity of 90.8% and a specificity of 54.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

Malignancy, delirium, length of stay ≥ 10 days, and being at risk of malnutrition or malnourished are predictors for 30-day all-cause unplanned readmission. The sensitive scoring system is a strong model to identify whether an individual is at higher risk for readmission. The new CGA-based scoring system had higher discrimination value than that of the previous seven-point scoring system.

Frailty state among Indonesian elderly: prevalence, associated factors, and frailty state transition

Background

Information about frailty status and its transition is important to inform clinical decisions. Predicting frailty transition is beneficial for its prevention. While Indonesia is the 4th largest geriatric population in Asia, data about frailty transition is limited. This study aimed to obtain data on prevalence of frailty, its risk factors, frailty state transition and its prognostic factors, as well as to develop prognostic score for frailty state transition.

Methods

Multicenter study on subjects aged ≥60 years old was done to obtain the prevalence of frailty status and to identify risk factors of frailty. Prospective cohort over 12 months was done to obtain data on frailty state transition. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify its prognostic factors from several clinical data, which then were utilized to develop prognostic score for frailty state worsening.

Results

Cross-sectional data from 448 subjects showed that 25.2% of the subjects were frail based on Frailty index-40 items. Risk factors of frailty were age (OR 2.72; 95% CI 1.58–4.76), functional status (OR 2.89; 95% CI 1.79–4.67), and nutritional status (OR 3.75; 95% CI 2.29–6.13). Data from the 162 subjects who completed the cohort showed 27.2% of the cohort had frailty state worsening. Prognostic factors for frailty state worsening were being 70 years or older (OR 3.9; 95% CI 1.2–12.3, p < 0.05), negative QoL, i.e., fair and poor QoL (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.1–5.9, p < 0.05), and slow gait speed (OR 2.8; 95% CI 1.3–6.4, p < 0.05). The internal validation of the prognostic score consisted of those three variables showed good performance.

Conclusion

The prevalence of frailty in this study among Indonesian elderly in outpatient setting was 25.2%. The risk factors of frailty were age, functional status and nutritional status. The prognostic factors for frailty state worsening were being 70 years old or older, negative QoL (fair or poor quality of life), and slow gait speed. A prognostic score to predict frailty state worsening in 12 months had been developed.