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de Winter MA, Büller HR, Carrier M, Cohen AT, Hansen JB, Kaasjager KAH, Kakkar AK, Middeldorp S, Raskob GE, Sørensen HT, Visseren FLJ, Wells PS, Dorresteijn JAN, Nijkeuter M, Burggraaf L, Cannegieter SC, Farjat A, Pap AF, Goldhaber S, Grosso M, Horváth-Puhó E, Lensing AWA, Pieper K, Schulman S, Shi M, Virdone S. Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score. Eur Heart J 2023; 44:1231-1244. [PMID: 36648242 PMCID: PMC10079391 DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehac776] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2022] [Revised: 10/23/2022] [Accepted: 12/07/2022] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
AIMS Deciding to stop or continue anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) after initial treatment is challenging, as individual risks of recurrence and bleeding are heterogeneous. The present study aimed to develop and externally validate models for predicting 5-year risks of recurrence and bleeding in patients with VTE without cancer who completed at least 3 months of initial treatment, which can be used to estimate individual absolute benefits and harms of extended anticoagulation. METHODS AND RESULTS Competing risk-adjusted models were derived to predict recurrent VTE and clinically relevant bleeding (non-major and major) using 14 readily available patient characteristics. The models were derived from combined individual patient data from the Bleeding Risk Study, Hokusai-VTE, PREFER-VTE, RE-MEDY, and RE-SONATE (n = 15,141, 220 recurrences, 189 bleeding events). External validity was assessed in the Danish VTE cohort, EINSTEIN-CHOICE, GARFIELD-VTE, MEGA, and Tromsø studies (n = 59 257, 2283 recurrences, 3335 bleeding events). Absolute treatment effects were estimated by combining the models with hazard ratios from trials and meta-analyses. External validation in different settings showed agreement between predicted and observed risks up to 5 years, with C-statistics ranging from 0.48-0.71 (recurrence) and 0.61-0.68 (bleeding). In the Danish VTE cohort, 5-year risks ranged from 4% to 19% for recurrent VTE and 1% -19% for bleeding. CONCLUSION The VTE-PREDICT risk score can be applied to estimate the effect of extended anticoagulant treatment for individual patients with VTE and to support shared decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A de Winter
- Department of Acute Internal Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584CX Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Harry R Büller
- Department of Vascular Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Meibergdreef 9 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marc Carrier
- Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa and the Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, 501 Smyth Rd, K1H8L6 Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Alexander T Cohen
- Department of Haematological Medicine, Guys and St Thomas' Hospitals, King's College London, Westminster Bridge Road, London, SE1 7EH, UK
| | - John-Bjarne Hansen
- Thrombosis Research Center (TREC), Department of Clinical Medicine, UiT - The Arctic University of Norway, 9037, Tromsø and Thrombosis Research Center (TREC), Division of internal medicine, University hospital of North Norway, 9038, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Karin A H Kaasjager
- Department of Acute Internal Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584CX Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Ajay K Kakkar
- Thrombosis Research Institute London, 1B Manresa Road Chelsea, SW3 6LR, London, UK
| | - Saskia Middeldorp
- Department of Internal Medicine & Radboud Institute of Health Sciences (RIHS), Radboud University Medical Center, Geert Grooteplein 10, 6525 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Gary E Raskob
- Hudson College of Public Health, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, 801 N.E. 13th Street, Oklahoma City, OK 73104, USA
| | - Henrik T Sørensen
- Department of Clinical Medicine - Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Olof Palmes Allé 43-45, 8200 Aarhus N, Denmark
| | - Frank L J Visseren
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584CX, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Philip S Wells
- Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa and the Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, 501 Smyth Rd, K1H8L6 Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jannick A N Dorresteijn
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584CX, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Mathilde Nijkeuter
- Department of Acute Internal Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584CX Utrecht, The Netherlands
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