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Lua I, Silva AF, Guimarães NS, Magno L, Pescarini J, Anderle RV, Ichihara MY, Barreto ML, Teles Santos CA, Chenciner L, Souza LE, Macinko J, Dourado I, Rasella D. The effects of social determinants of health on acquired immune deficiency syndrome in a low-income population of Brazil: a retrospective cohort study of 28.3 million individuals. Lancet Reg Health Am 2023; 24:100554. [PMID: 37521440 PMCID: PMC10372893 DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2023.100554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2023] [Revised: 06/29/2023] [Accepted: 07/03/2023] [Indexed: 08/01/2023]
Abstract
Background Social determinants of health (SDH) include factors such as income, education, and race, that could significantly affect the human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS). Studies on the effects of SDH on HIV/AIDS are limited, and do not yet provide a systematic understanding of how the various SDH act on important indicators of HIV/AIDS progression. We aimed to evaluate the effects of SDH on AIDS morbidity and mortality. Methods A retrospective cohort of 28.3 million individuals was evaluated over a 9-year period (from 2007 to 2015). Multivariable Poisson regression, with a hierarchical approach, was used to estimate the effects of SDH-at the individual and familial level-on AIDS incidence, mortality, and case-fatality rates. Findings A total of 28,318,532 individuals, representing the low-income Brazilian population, were assessed, who had a mean age of 36.18 (SD: 16.96) years, 52.69% (14,920,049) were female, 57.52% (15,360,569) were pardos, 34.13% (9,113,222) were white/Asian, 7.77% (2,075,977) were black, and 0.58% (154,146) were indigenous. Specific socioeconomic, household, and geographic factors were significantly associated with AIDS-related outcomes. Less wealth was strongly associated with a higher AIDS incidence (rate ratios-RR: 1.55; 95% confidence interval-CI: 1.43-1.68) and mortality (RR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.70-2.34). Lower educational attainment was also greatly associated with higher AIDS incidence (RR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.26-1.68), mortality (RR: 2.76; 95% CI: 1.99-3.82) and case-fatality rates (RR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.31-4.01). Being black was associated with a higher AIDS incidence (RR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.45-1.61), mortality (RR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.57-1.83) and case-fatality rates (RR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.03-1.32). Overall, also considering the other SDH, individuals experiencing greater levels of socioeconomic deprivation were, by far, more likely to acquire AIDS, and to die from it. Interpretation In the population studied, SDH related to poverty and social vulnerability are strongly associated with a higher burden of HIV/AIDS, most notably less wealth, illiteracy, and being black. In the absence of relevant social protection policies, the current worldwide increase in poverty and inequalities-due to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effects of war in the Ukraine-could reverse progress made in the fight against HIV/AIDS in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Funding National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NAIDS), National Institutes of Health (NIH), US Grant Number: 1R01AI152938.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iracema Lua
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Department of Health, State University of Feira de Santana (UEFS), Feira de Santana, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Andrea F. Silva
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Nathalia S. Guimarães
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Laio Magno
- Department of Life Sciences, State University of Bahia (UNEB), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Julia Pescarini
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Rodrigo V.R. Anderle
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Maria Yury Ichihara
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Mauricio L. Barreto
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Carlos A.S. Teles Santos
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Louisa Chenciner
- Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Richard Doll Building, Oxford, UK
- Oxford University Hospitals, Oxford, UK
- Department of Infection and Immunity, St George's University London, London, UK
| | - Luis Eugênio Souza
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - James Macinko
- Departments of Health Policy and Management and Community Health Sciences, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Ines Dourado
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Davide Rasella
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- ISGlobal, Hospital Clinic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
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Rasella D, Morais GADS, Anderle RV, da Silva AF, Lua I, Coelho R, Rubio FA, Magno L, Machado D, Pescarini J, Souza LE, Macinko J, Dourado I. Evaluating the impact of social determinants, conditional cash transfers and primary health care on HIV/AIDS: Study protocol of a retrospective and forecasting approach based on the data integration with a cohort of 100 million Brazilians. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0265253. [PMID: 35316304 PMCID: PMC8939793 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0265253] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2022] [Accepted: 02/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Despite the great progress made over the last decades, stronger structural interventions are needed to end the HIV/AIDS pandemic in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC). Brazil is one of the largest and data-richest LMIC, with rapidly changing socioeconomic characteristics and an important HIV/AIDS burden. Over the last two decades Brazil has also implemented the world’s largest Conditional Cash Transfer programs, the Bolsa Familia Program (BFP), and one of the most consolidated Primary Health Care (PHC) interventions, the Family Health Strategy (FHS). Objective We will evaluate the effects of socioeconomic determinants, BFP exposure and FHS coverage on HIV/AIDS incidence, treatment adherence, hospitalizations, case fatality, and mortality using unprecedently large aggregate and individual-level longitudinal data. Moreover, we will integrate the retrospective datasets and estimated parameters with comprehensive forecasting models to project HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence and mortality scenarios up to 2030 according to future socioeconomic conditions and alternative policy implementations. Methods and analysis We will combine individual-level data from all national HIV/AIDS registries with large-scale databases, including the “100 Million Brazilian Cohort”, over a 19-year period (2000–2018). Several approaches will be used for the retrospective quasi-experimental impact evaluations, such as Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), Random Administrative Delays (RAD) and Propensity Score Matching (PSM), combined with multivariable Poisson regressions for cohort analyses. Moreover, we will explore in depth lagged and long-term effects of changes in living conditions and in exposures to BFP and FHS. We will also investigate the effects of the interventions in a wide range of subpopulations. Finally, we will integrate such retrospective analyses with microsimulation, compartmental and agent-based models to forecast future HIV/AIDS scenarios. Conclusion The unprecedented datasets, analyzed through state-of-the-art quasi-experimental methods and innovative mathematical models will provide essential evidences to the understanding and control of HIV/AIDS epidemic in LMICs such as Brazil.
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Affiliation(s)
- Davide Rasella
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
- ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Brazil
- * E-mail:
| | | | | | | | - Iracema Lua
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Ronaldo Coelho
- Department of Chronic Conditions and Sexually Transmitted Infections/Department of Health Surveillance/Ministry of Health (DCCI/SVS/MS), Brasília, Brazil
| | - Felipe Alves Rubio
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Laio Magno
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
- Life Science Department, University of the State of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Daiane Machado
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Julia Pescarini
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Luis Eugênio Souza
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | - James Macinko
- UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | - Inês Dourado
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
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