A decision model to estimate a risk threshold for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients

Essentials Low risk patients don't require venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis; low risk is unquantified. We used a Markov model to estimate the risk threshold for VTE prophylaxis in medical inpatients. Prophylaxis was cost-effective for an average medical patient with a VTE risk of ≥ 1.0%. VTE prophylaxis can be personalized based on patient risk and age/life expectancy.

SUMMARY

Background Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common preventable condition in medical inpatients. Thromboprophylaxis is recommended for inpatients who are not at low risk of VTE, but no specific risk threshold for prophylaxis has been defined. Objective To determine a threshold for prophylaxis based on risk of VTE. Patients/Methods We constructed a decision model with a decision-tree following patients for 3 months after hospitalization, and a lifetime Markov model with 3-month cycles. The model tracked symptomatic deep vein thromboses and pulmonary emboli, bleeding events and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. Long-term complications included recurrent VTE, post-thrombotic syndrome and pulmonary hypertension. For the base case, we considered medical inpatients aged 66 years, having a life expectancy of 13.5 years, VTE risk of 1.4% and bleeding risk of 2.7%. Patients received enoxaparin 40 mg day-1 for prophylaxis. Results Assuming a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100 000/ quality-adjusted life year (QALY), prophylaxis was indicated for an average medical inpatient with a VTE risk of ≥ 1.0% up to 3 months after hospitalization. For the average patient, prophylaxis was not indicated when the bleeding risk was > 8.1%, the patient's age was > 73.4 years or the cost of enoxaparin exceeded $60/dose. If VTE risk was < 0.26% or bleeding risk was > 19%, the risks of prophylaxis outweighed benefits. The prophylaxis threshold was relatively insensitive to low-molecular-weight heparin cost and bleeding risk, but very sensitive to patient age and life expectancy. Conclusions The decision to offer prophylaxis should be personalized based on patient VTE risk, age and life expectancy. At a WTP of $100 000/QALY, prophylaxis is not warranted for most patients with a 3-month VTE risk below 1.0%.

Cardiovascular phenotyping of fetal mice by noninvasive high-frequency ultrasound facilitates recovery of ENU-induced mutations causing congenital cardiac and extracardiac defects

As part of a large-scale noninvasive fetal ultrasound screen to recover ethylnitrosourea (ENU)-induced mutations causing congenital heart defects in mice, we established a high-throughput ultrasound scanning strategy for interrogating fetal mice in utero utilizing three orthogonal imaging planes defined by the fetus’ vertebral column and body axes, structures readily seen by ultrasound. This contrasts with the difficulty of acquiring clinical ultrasound imaging planes which are defined by the fetal heart. By use of the three orthogonal imaging planes for two-dimensional (2D) imaging together with color flow, spectral Doppler, and M-mode imaging, all of the major elements of the heart can be evaluated. In this manner, 10,091 ENU-mutagenized mouse fetuses were ultrasound scanned between embryonic days 12.5 and 19.5, with 324 fetuses found to die prenatally and 425 exhibiting cardiovascular defects. Further analysis by necropsy and histology showed heart defects that included conotruncal anomalies, obstructive lesions, and shunt lesions as well as other complex heart diseases. Ultrasound imaging also identified craniofacial/head defects and body wall closure defects, which necropsy revealed as encephalocele, holoprosencephaly, omphalocele, or gastroschisis. Genome scanning mapped one ENU-induced mutation associated with persistence truncus arteriosus and holoprosencephaly to mouse chromosome 2, while another mutation associated with cardiac defects and omphalocele was mapped to mouse chromosome 17. These studies show the efficacy of this novel ultrasound scanning strategy for noninvasive ultrasound phenotyping to facilitate the recovery of ENU-induced mutations causing congenital heart defects and other extracardiac anomalies.