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Thomas-Sharma S, Andrade-Piedra J, Carvajal Yepes M, Hernandez Nopsa JF, Jeger MJ, Jones RAC, Kromann P, Legg JP, Yuen J, Forbes GA, Garrett KA. A Risk Assessment Framework for Seed Degeneration: Informing an Integrated Seed Health Strategy for Vegetatively Propagated Crops. Phytopathology 2017; 107:1123-1135. [PMID: 28545348 DOI: 10.1094/phyto-09-16-0340-r] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Pathogen buildup in vegetative planting material, termed seed degeneration, is a major problem in many low-income countries. When smallholder farmers use seed produced on-farm or acquired outside certified programs, it is often infected. We introduce a risk assessment framework for seed degeneration, evaluating the relative performance of individual and combined components of an integrated seed health strategy. The frequency distribution of management performance outcomes was evaluated for models incorporating biological and environmental heterogeneity, with the following results. (1) On-farm seed selection can perform as well as certified seed, if the rate of success in selecting healthy plants for seed production is high; (2) when choosing among within-season management strategies, external inoculum can determine the relative usefulness of 'incidence-altering management' (affecting the proportion of diseased plants/seeds) and 'rate-altering management' (affecting the rate of disease transmission in the field); (3) under severe disease scenarios, where it is difficult to implement management components at high levels of effectiveness, combining management components can be synergistic and keep seed degeneration below a threshold; (4) combining management components can also close the yield gap between average and worst-case scenarios. We also illustrate the potential for expert elicitation to provide parameter estimates when empirical data are unavailable. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license .
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Affiliation(s)
- S Thomas-Sharma
- First, fourth, and eleventh authors: Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan; first author: Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison; second author: International Potato Center, Lima, Peru; third author: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; fourth and eleventh authors: Plant Pathology Department, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville; fifth author: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London; sixth author: Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia; seventh author: International Potato Center, Quito, Ecuador; eighth author: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; ninth author: Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; and tenth author: International Potato Center, Kunming, China
| | - J Andrade-Piedra
- First, fourth, and eleventh authors: Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan; first author: Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison; second author: International Potato Center, Lima, Peru; third author: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; fourth and eleventh authors: Plant Pathology Department, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville; fifth author: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London; sixth author: Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia; seventh author: International Potato Center, Quito, Ecuador; eighth author: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; ninth author: Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; and tenth author: International Potato Center, Kunming, China
| | - M Carvajal Yepes
- First, fourth, and eleventh authors: Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan; first author: Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison; second author: International Potato Center, Lima, Peru; third author: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; fourth and eleventh authors: Plant Pathology Department, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville; fifth author: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London; sixth author: Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia; seventh author: International Potato Center, Quito, Ecuador; eighth author: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; ninth author: Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; and tenth author: International Potato Center, Kunming, China
| | - J F Hernandez Nopsa
- First, fourth, and eleventh authors: Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan; first author: Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison; second author: International Potato Center, Lima, Peru; third author: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; fourth and eleventh authors: Plant Pathology Department, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville; fifth author: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London; sixth author: Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia; seventh author: International Potato Center, Quito, Ecuador; eighth author: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; ninth author: Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; and tenth author: International Potato Center, Kunming, China
| | - M J Jeger
- First, fourth, and eleventh authors: Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan; first author: Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison; second author: International Potato Center, Lima, Peru; third author: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; fourth and eleventh authors: Plant Pathology Department, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville; fifth author: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London; sixth author: Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia; seventh author: International Potato Center, Quito, Ecuador; eighth author: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; ninth author: Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; and tenth author: International Potato Center, Kunming, China
| | - R A C Jones
- First, fourth, and eleventh authors: Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan; first author: Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison; second author: International Potato Center, Lima, Peru; third author: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; fourth and eleventh authors: Plant Pathology Department, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville; fifth author: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London; sixth author: Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia; seventh author: International Potato Center, Quito, Ecuador; eighth author: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; ninth author: Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; and tenth author: International Potato Center, Kunming, China
| | - P Kromann
- First, fourth, and eleventh authors: Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan; first author: Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison; second author: International Potato Center, Lima, Peru; third author: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; fourth and eleventh authors: Plant Pathology Department, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville; fifth author: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London; sixth author: Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia; seventh author: International Potato Center, Quito, Ecuador; eighth author: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; ninth author: Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; and tenth author: International Potato Center, Kunming, China
| | - J P Legg
- First, fourth, and eleventh authors: Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan; first author: Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison; second author: International Potato Center, Lima, Peru; third author: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; fourth and eleventh authors: Plant Pathology Department, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville; fifth author: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London; sixth author: Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia; seventh author: International Potato Center, Quito, Ecuador; eighth author: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; ninth author: Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; and tenth author: International Potato Center, Kunming, China
| | - J Yuen
- First, fourth, and eleventh authors: Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan; first author: Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison; second author: International Potato Center, Lima, Peru; third author: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; fourth and eleventh authors: Plant Pathology Department, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville; fifth author: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London; sixth author: Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia; seventh author: International Potato Center, Quito, Ecuador; eighth author: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; ninth author: Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; and tenth author: International Potato Center, Kunming, China
| | - G A Forbes
- First, fourth, and eleventh authors: Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan; first author: Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison; second author: International Potato Center, Lima, Peru; third author: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; fourth and eleventh authors: Plant Pathology Department, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville; fifth author: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London; sixth author: Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia; seventh author: International Potato Center, Quito, Ecuador; eighth author: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; ninth author: Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; and tenth author: International Potato Center, Kunming, China
| | - K A Garrett
- First, fourth, and eleventh authors: Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan; first author: Department of Plant Pathology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison; second author: International Potato Center, Lima, Peru; third author: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; fourth and eleventh authors: Plant Pathology Department, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville; fifth author: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London; sixth author: Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia; seventh author: International Potato Center, Quito, Ecuador; eighth author: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; ninth author: Department of Forest Mycology and Plant Pathology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; and tenth author: International Potato Center, Kunming, China
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