A method to assess the proportion of treatment effect explained by a surrogate endpoint

Randomized clinical trials are the standard for evaluating new drugs, devices and procedures. Traditional clinical trials entail not only considerable expense, but require considerable time to complete. The use of surrogate endpoints constitutes an effort to control cost and completion time for clinical trials. We propose a method to quantify the proportion of treatment effect explained by a surrogate endpoint based on a general model setting which includes the commonly used linear, logistic and Cox regression models. The interpretation of this quantitative measure is facilitated by graphical displays. To reduce the variability associated with the estimate, a meta-analytic approach is proposed based on random effects models. An example using real clinical trial data is given to illustrate the proposed procedures.

An assessment tool for predicting fracture risk in postmenopausal women

Due to the magnitude of the morbidity and mortality associated with untreated osteoporosis, it is essential that high-risk individuals be identified so that they can receive appropriate evaluation and treatment. The objective of this investigation was to develop a simple clinical assessment tool based on a small number of risk factors that could be used by women or their clinicians to assess their risk of fractures. Using data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), a total of 7782 women age 65 years and older with bone mineral density (BMD) measurements and baseline risk factors were included in the analysis. A model with and without BMD T-scores was developed by identifying variables that could be easily assessed in either clinical practice or by self-administration. The assessment tool, called the FRACTURE Index, is comprised of a set of seven variables that include age; BMD T-score, fracture after age 50 years, maternal hip fracture after age 50, weight less than or equal to 125 pounds (57 kg), smoking status, and use of arms to stand up from a chair. The FRACTURE Index was shown to be predictive of hip fracture, as well as vertebral and nonvertebral fractures. In addition, this index was validated using the EPIDOS fracture study. The FRACTURE Index can be used either with or without BMD testing by older postmenopausal women or their clinicians to assess the 5-year risk of hip and other osteoporotic fractures, and could be useful in helping to determine the need for further evaluation and treatment of these women.

Effects of risedronate treatment on vertebral and nonvertebral fractures in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis: a randomized controlled trial. Vertebral Efficacy With Risedronate Therapy (VERT) Study Group

CONTEXT

Risedronate, a potent bisphosphonate, has been shown to be effective in the treatment of Paget disease of bone and other metabolic bone diseases but, to our knowledge, it has not been evaluated in the treatment of established postmenopausal osteoporosis.

OBJECTIVE

To test the efficacy and safety of daily treatment with risedronate to reduce the risk of vertebral and other fractures in postmenopausal women with established osteoporosis.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of 2458 ambulatory postmenopausal women younger than 85 years with at least 1 vertebral fracture at baseline who were enrolled at 1 of 110 centers in North America conducted between December 1993 and January 1998.

INTERVENTIONS

Subjects were randomly assigned to receive oral treatment for 3 years with risedronate (2.5 or 5 mg/d) or placebo. All subjects received calcium, 1000 mg/d. Vitamin D (cholecalciferol, up to 500 IU/d) was provided if baseline levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D were low.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence of new vertebral fractures as detected by quantitative and semiquantitative assessments of radiographs; incidence of radiographically confirmed nonvertebral fractures and change from baseline in bone mineral density as determined by dual x-ray absorptiometry.

RESULTS

The 2.5 mg/d of risedronate arm was discontinued after 1 year; in the placebo and 5 mg/d of risedronate arms, 450 and 489 subjects, respectively, completed all 3 years of the trial. Treatment with 5 mg/d of risedronate, compared with placebo, decreased the cumulative incidence of new vertebral fractures by 41 % (95% confidence interval [CI], 18%-58%) over 3 years (11.3 % vs 16.3%; P= .003). A fracture reduction of 65% (95% CI, 38%-81 %) was observed after the first year (2.4% vs 6.4%; P<.001). The cumulative incidence of nonvertebral fractures over 3 years was reduced by 39% (95% CI, 6%-61 %) (5.2 % vs 8.4%; P = .02). Bone mineral density increased significantly compared with placebo at the lumbar spine (5.4% vs 1.1 %), femoral neck (1.6% vs -1.2%), femoral trochanter (3.3% vs -0.7%), and midshaft of the radius (0.2% vs -1.4%). Bone formed during risedronate treatment was histologically normal. The overall safety profile of risedronate, including gastrointestinal safety, was similar to that of placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that risedronate therapy is effective and well tolerated in the treatment of women with established postmenopausal osteoporosis.

A randomized, double-blind comparison of risedronate and etidronate in the treatment of Paget's disease of bone. Paget's Risedronate/Etidronate Study Group

PURPOSE

To compare the efficacy and tolerability of oral risedronate and etidronate for treatment of Paget's disease of bone.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients from 12 centers in North America received risedronate 30 mg daily for 2 months (62 patients) or etidronate 400 mg daily for 6 months (61 patients) in a prospective, randomized, double-blind study. Serum alkaline phosphatase (the primary variable), serum bone-specific alkaline phosphatase, and urinary deoxypyridinoline concentrations were monitored for 12 to 18 months.

RESULTS

Serum alkaline phosphatase concentration normalized by month 12 in 73% of risedronate-treated patients, compared with 15% of those receiving etidronate (P <0.001). Median time to normalization was 91 days for risedronate-treated patients and >360 days for etidronate-treated patients (P <0.001); relapse rates were 3% in the risedronate group and 15% in the etidronate group (P <0.05). At month 18, 53% of the risedronate group and 14% of the etidronate group remained in biochemical remission. Urinary deoxypyridinoline normalized in 87% of patients on risedronate and 57% of patients receiving etidronate (P <0.01); serum bone-specific alkaline phosphatase normalized in 73% of patients on risedronate and 18% of patients on etidronate (P <0.001). Patients who had received etidronate previously had a blunted response to etidronate, but not to risedronate. Reductions in pain were statistically significant in the risedronate group, but not in the etidronate group. Both drugs were well tolerated.

CONCLUSION

Although etidronate is effective, risedronate offers a shorter duration of therapy, better and longer-lasting remission, significant reductions in pain, and provides additional remission in subjects who exhibited an incomplete response to previous etidronate treatment.

Cyclical etidronate in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis: efficacy and safety after seven years of treatment

PURPOSE

To determine the efficacy and safety of cyclical etidronate for up to 7 years in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis and to examine the effects of discontinuing treatment after 2 or 5 years of therapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients were randomized at entry into the original study in 1986 to blinded treatment for 2 years with either a calcium (placebo) or an intermittent cyclical etidronate regimen, which most patients continued for a third year. Following this phase of the study, patients were enrolled into an open-label, follow-up study (years 4 and 5), during which all patients received cyclical etidronate treatment. In the present double-blind study (years 6 and 7), patients were rerandomized to receive intermittent cyclical therapy with either etidronate or placebo; all patients received calcium. The treatment regimen consisted of 400 mg/day etidronate or placebo for 14 days, followed by 76 days of elemental calcium (500 mg/day); this cycle was repeated approximately 4 times in each year. Of the 193 patients who continued in years 6 and 7 of the study, 93 were randomized to receive cyclical etidronate and 100 were randomized to receive calcium only. For purposes of efficacy analyses, patients were categorized by their total years of cumulative etidronate treatment (7, 5, 4, or 2 years). There were 51, 46, 42, and 54 patients in the 7-, 5-, 4-, and 2-year groups, respectively. Annual assessments included lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD), as measured by densitometry, and vertebral radiographs.

RESULTS

The groups receiving cyclical etidronate during this 2-year study period (7- and 4-year groups) had statistically significant mean percent increases in spinal BMD of 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively (P < 0.05) at the week 104 observation time. The 5- and 2-year groups, which did not receive etidronate during this period, had mean values of 1.4% and 0.2%, respectively (not significant) at week 104. In the 7-, 5-, 4-, and 2-year groups, the increases in spinal BMD at the end of 7 years were 7.6%, 8.6%, 8.1%, and 3.9%, respectively; these values were statistically significant for all groups compared with original baseline (year 0) (P < 0.05). BMD of the femur and wrist was maintained throughout the 7-year period. The incidence and rate of vertebral fractures were lowest in patients with the longest exposure to etidronate. Etidronate was well tolerated during the study, with low incidences of gastrointestinal side effects and nonvertebral fractures.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term cyclical etidronate is a safe, effective, and well-tolerated treatment for postmenopausal osteoporosis. Bone mass is maintained for at least 2 years after treatment with etidronate is stopped; however, further gains in spinal bone mass are seen in patients who continue therapy.