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Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Scovronick N, Sera F, Royé D, Schneider R, Tobias A, Astrom C, Guo Y, Honda Y, Hondula DM, Abrutzky R, Tong S, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Saldiva PHN, Lavigne E, Correa PM, Ortega NV, Kan H, Osorio S, Kyselý J, Urban A, Orru H, Indermitte E, Jaakkola JJK, Ryti N, Pascal M, Schneider A, Katsouyanni K, Samoli E, Mayvaneh F, Entezari A, Goodman P, Zeka A, Michelozzi P, de’Donato F, Hashizume M, Alahmad B, Diaz MH, De La Cruz Valencia C, Overcenco A, Houthuijs D, Ameling C, Rao S, Ruscio FD, Carrasco-Escobar G, Seposo X, Silva S, Madureira J, Holobaca IH, Fratianni S, Acquaotta F, Kim H, Lee W, Iniguez C, Forsberg B, Ragettli MS, Guo YLL, Chen BY, Li S, Armstrong B, Aleman A, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Dang TN, Dung DV, Gillett N, Haines A, Mengel M, Huber V, Gasparrini A. The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change. Nat Clim Chang 2021; 11:492-500. [PMID: 34221128 PMCID: PMC7611104 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 196] [Impact Index Per Article: 65.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2021] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - N. Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - F. Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications ‘G. Parenti’, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - D. Royé
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - R. Schneider
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Φ-Lab, European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN), Frascati, Italy
- The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Reading, UK
| | - A. Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - C. Astrom
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Y. Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Y. Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - D. M. Hondula
- School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - R. Abrutzky
- Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - S. Tong
- Shanghai Children’s Medical Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | | | | | - E. Lavigne
- Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - P. Matus Correa
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
| | - N. Valdes Ortega
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
| | - H. Kan
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - S. Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - J. Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - A. Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - H. Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - E. Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - J. J. K. Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - N. Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - M. Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | - A. Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
| | - K. Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Environmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - E. Samoli
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - F. Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | - A. Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | - P. Goodman
- School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - A. Zeka
- Institute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - P. Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | - F. de’Donato
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | - M. Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, School of International Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - B. Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - M. Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - C. De La Cruz Valencia
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - A. Overcenco
- Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
| | - D. Houthuijs
- Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - C. Ameling
- Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - S. Rao
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - F. Di Ruscio
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - G. Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Laboratory, Institute of Tropical Medicine ‘Alexander von Humboldt’, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - X. Seposo
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - S. Silva
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - J. Madureira
- Department of Enviromental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal
- EPIUnit—Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - I. H. Holobaca
- Faculty of Geography, Babes-Bolay University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - S. Fratianni
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Torino, Turin, Italy
| | - F. Acquaotta
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Torino, Turin, Italy
| | - H. Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health & Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - W. Lee
- Graduate School of Public Health & Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - C. Iniguez
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de Valencia, Valencia, Spain
| | - B. Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - M. S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Y. L. L. Guo
- Environmental and Occupational Medicine, and Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University (NTU) and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan,Taiwan
| | - B. Y. Chen
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan,Taiwan
| | - S. Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - B. Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - A. Aleman
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - A. Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - J. Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - T. N. Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - D. V. Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - N. Gillett
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Colombia, Canada
| | - A. Haines
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Φ-Lab, European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN), Frascati, Italy
| | - M. Mengel
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - V. Huber
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
- Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Seville, Spain
| | - A. Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Perez L, Trüeb S, Cowie H, Keuken MP, Mudu P, Ragettli MS, Sarigiannis DA, Tobollik M, Tuomisto J, Vienneau D, Sabel C, Künzli N. Transport-related measures to mitigate climate change in Basel, Switzerland: A health-effectiveness comparison study. Environ Int 2015; 85:111-9. [PMID: 26386464 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2015.08.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2014] [Revised: 07/21/2015] [Accepted: 08/01/2015] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Local strategies to reduce green-house gases (GHG) imply changes of non-climatic exposure patterns. OBJECTIVE To assess the health impacts of locally relevant transport-related climate change policies in Basel, Switzerland. METHODS We modelled change in mortality and morbidity for the year 2020 based on several locally relevant transport scenarios including all decided transport policies up to 2020, additional realistic and hypothesized traffic reductions, as well as ambitious diffusion levels of electric cars. The scenarios were compared to the reference condition in 2010 assumed as status quo. The changes in non-climatic population exposure included ambient air pollution, physical activity, and noise. As secondary outcome, changes in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were put into perspective with predicted changes of CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. RESULTS Under the scenario that assumed a strict particle emissions standard in diesel cars and all planned transport measures, 3% of premature deaths could be prevented from projected PM2.5 exposure reduction. A traffic reduction scenario assuming more active trips provided only minor added health benefits for any of the changes in exposure considered. A hypothetical strong support to electric vehicles diffusion would have the largest health effectiveness given that the energy production in Basel comes from renewable sources. CONCLUSION The planned local transport related GHG emission reduction policies in Basel are sensible for mitigating climate change and improving public health. In this context, the most effective policy remains increasing zero-emission vehicles.
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Affiliation(s)
- L Perez
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
| | - S Trüeb
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland; Lufthygieneamt beider Basel, Departement für Wirtschaft, Soziales und Umwelt Basel-Stadt, Germany
| | - H Cowie
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - M P Keuken
- TNO, Netherlands Organization for Applied Research, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - P Mudu
- WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, Germany
| | - M S Ragettli
- Université de Montréal, Département de santé environnementale et santé au travail, École de santé publique, Canada
| | - D A Sarigiannis
- Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, Environmental Engineering Laboratory, Thessaloniki, Greece; Centre for Research and Technology Hellas, Chemical Process and Energy Resources Institute, Thermi, Greece
| | - M Tobollik
- Bielefeld University, School of Public Health, Department 7 Environment & Health, Bielefeld, Germany; Federal Environment Agency (UBA), Section for Exposure Assessment and Health Indicators, Germany
| | - J Tuomisto
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Kuopio, Finland
| | - D Vienneau
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - C Sabel
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - N Künzli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
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