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Bevacqua E, Maraun D, Vousdoukas MI, Voukouvalas E, Vrac M, Mentaschi L, Widmann M. Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change. Sci Adv 2019. [PMID: 31555727 DOI: 10.1126/sciadvaaw5531] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
In low-lying coastal areas, the co-occurrence of high sea level and precipitation resulting in large runoff may cause compound flooding (CF). When the two hazards interact, the resulting impact can be worse than when they occur individually. Both storm surges and heavy precipitation, as well as their interplay, are likely to change in response to global warming. Despite the CF relevance, a comprehensive hazard assessment beyond individual locations is missing, and no studies have examined CF in the future. Analyzing co-occurring high sea level and heavy precipitation in Europe, we show that the Mediterranean coasts are experiencing the highest CF probability in the present. However, future climate projections show emerging high CF probability along parts of the northern European coast. In several European regions, CF should be considered as a potential hazard aggravating the risk caused by mean sea level rise in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Bevacqua
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - D Maraun
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - M I Vousdoukas
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, Mitilene, Greece
| | - E Voukouvalas
- S.A. Rue des Deux Eglises 26, Brussels 1000, Belgium
| | - M Vrac
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CNRS/IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - L Mentaschi
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | - M Widmann
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
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Bevacqua E, Maraun D, Vousdoukas MI, Voukouvalas E, Vrac M, Mentaschi L, Widmann M. Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change. Sci Adv 2019; 5:eaaw5531. [PMID: 31555727 PMCID: PMC6750907 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw5531] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2019] [Accepted: 08/23/2019] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
In low-lying coastal areas, the co-occurrence of high sea level and precipitation resulting in large runoff may cause compound flooding (CF). When the two hazards interact, the resulting impact can be worse than when they occur individually. Both storm surges and heavy precipitation, as well as their interplay, are likely to change in response to global warming. Despite the CF relevance, a comprehensive hazard assessment beyond individual locations is missing, and no studies have examined CF in the future. Analyzing co-occurring high sea level and heavy precipitation in Europe, we show that the Mediterranean coasts are experiencing the highest CF probability in the present. However, future climate projections show emerging high CF probability along parts of the northern European coast. In several European regions, CF should be considered as a potential hazard aggravating the risk caused by mean sea level rise in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- E. Bevacqua
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
- Corresponding author.
| | - D. Maraun
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - M. I. Vousdoukas
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, Mitilene, Greece
| | | | - M. Vrac
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CNRS/IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - L. Mentaschi
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | - M. Widmann
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
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Galmarini S, Cannon A, Ceglar A, Christensen O, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Dentener F, Doblas-Reyes F, Dosio A, Gutierrez J, Iturbide M, Jury M, Lange S, Loukos H, Maiorano A, Maraun D, McGinnis S, Nikulin G, Riccio A, Sanchez E, Solazzo E, Toreti A, Vrac M, Zampieri M. Adjusting climate model bias for agricultural impact assessment: How to cut the mustard. Clim Serv 2019; 13:65-69. [PMID: 33150217 PMCID: PMC7594620 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2019.01.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2018] [Revised: 01/11/2019] [Accepted: 01/21/2019] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- S. Galmarini
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - A.J. Cannon
- Environment and Climate Change Canada, Canada
| | - A. Ceglar
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | | | | | - F. Dentener
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - F.J. Doblas-Reyes
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Spain
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), Spain
| | - A. Dosio
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | | | - M. Iturbide
- Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Spain
| | - M. Jury
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Austria
| | - S. Lange
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany
| | - H. Loukos
- The Climate Data Factory, Paris, France
| | | | - D. Maraun
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Austria
| | - S. McGinnis
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), United States
| | - G. Nikulin
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Sweden
| | - A. Riccio
- University of Naples “Parthenope”, Italy
| | - E. Sanchez
- UCLM, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain
| | - E. Solazzo
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - A. Toreti
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - M. Vrac
- Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), France
| | - M. Zampieri
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
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Tisseuil C, Vrac M, Grenouillet G, Wade AJ, Gevrey M, Oberdorff T, Grodwohl JB, Lek S. Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity. Sci Total Environ 2012; 424:193-201. [PMID: 22425276 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.02.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2011] [Revised: 01/12/2012] [Accepted: 02/17/2012] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour-Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- C Tisseuil
- Université de Toulouse, UPS, ENFA, UMR5174 EDB, Laboratoire Évolution et Diversité Biologique, 118 route de Narbonne, F-31062 Toulouse, France.
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