Methane prediction equations including genera of rumen bacteria as predictor variables improve prediction accuracy

Methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants are of a significant environmental concern, necessitating accurate prediction for emission inventories. Existing models rely solely on dietary and host animal-related data, ignoring the predicting power of rumen microbiota, the source of CH4. To address this limitation, we developed novel CH4 prediction models incorporating rumen microbes as predictors, alongside animal- and feed-related predictors using four statistical/machine learning (ML) methods. These include random forest combined with boosting (RF-B), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), generalized linear mixed model with LASSO (glmmLasso), and smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) implemented on linear mixed models. With a sheep dataset (218 observations) of both animal data and rumen microbiota data (relative sequence abundance of 330 genera of rumen bacteria, archaea, protozoa, and fungi), we developed linear mixed models to predict CH4 production (g CH4/animal·d, ANIM-B models) and CH4 yield (g CH4/kg of dry matter intake, DMI-B models). We also developed models solely based on animal-related data. Prediction performance was evaluated 200 times with random data splits, while fitting performance was assessed without data splitting. The inclusion of microbial predictors improved the models, as indicated by decreased root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) and mean absolute error (MAE), and increased Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). Both glmmLasso and SCAD reduced the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for both the ANIM-B and the DMI-B models, while the other two ML methods had mixed outcomes. By balancing prediction performance and fitting performance, we obtained one ANIM-B model (containing 10 genera of bacteria and 3 animal data) fitted using glmmLasso and one DMI-B model (5 genera of bacteria and 1 animal datum) fitted using SCAD. This study highlights the importance of incorporating rumen microbiota data in CH4 prediction models to enhance accuracy and robustness. Additionally, ML methods facilitate the selection of microbial predictors from high-dimensional metataxonomic data of the rumen microbiota without overfitting. Moreover, the identified microbial predictors can serve as biomarkers of CH4 emissions from sheep, providing valuable insights for future research and mitigation strategies.

Prediction of enteric methane production, yield, and intensity in dairy cattle using an intercontinental database

Enteric methane (CH₄ ) production from cattle contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions. Measurement of enteric CH₄ is complex, expensive, and impractical at large scales; therefore, models are commonly used to predict CH₄ production. However, building robust prediction models requires extensive data from animals under different management systems worldwide. The objectives of this study were to (1) collate a global database of enteric CH₄ production from individual lactating dairy cattle; (2) determine the availability of key variables for predicting enteric CH₄ production (g/day per cow), yield [g/kg dry matter intake (DMI)], and intensity (g/kg energy corrected milk) and their respective relationships; (3) develop intercontinental and regional models and cross-validate their performance; and (4) assess the trade-off between availability of on-farm inputs and CH₄ prediction accuracy. The intercontinental database covered Europe (EU), the United States (US), and Australia (AU). A sequential approach was taken by incrementally adding key variables to develop models with increasing complexity. Methane emissions were predicted by fitting linear mixed models. Within model categories, an intercontinental model with the most available independent variables performed best with root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) as a percentage of mean observed value of 16.6%, 14.7%, and 19.8% for intercontinental, EU, and United States regions, respectively. Less complex models requiring only DMI had predictive ability comparable to complex models. Enteric CH₄ production, yield, and intensity prediction models developed on an intercontinental basis had similar performance across regions, however, intercepts and slopes were different with implications for prediction. Revised CH₄ emission conversion factors for specific regions are required to improve CH₄ production estimates in national inventories. In conclusion, information on DMI is required for good prediction, and other factors such as dietary neutral detergent fiber (NDF) concentration, improve the prediction. For enteric CH₄ yield and intensity prediction, information on milk yield and composition is required for better estimation.