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Norrish G, Ding T, Field E, Ziółkowska L, Olivotto I, Limongelli G, Anastasakis A, Weintraub R, Biagini E, Ragni L, Prendiville T, Duignan S, McLeod K, Ilina M, Fernández A, Bökenkamp R, Baban A, Kubuš P, Daubeney PEF, Sarquella-Brugada G, Cesar S, Marrone C, Bhole V, Medrano C, Uzun O, Brown E, Gran F, Castro FJ, Stuart G, Vignati G, Barriales-Villa R, Guereta LG, Adwani S, Linter K, Bharucha T, Garcia-Pavia P, Rasmussen TB, Calcagnino MM, Jones CB, De Wilde H, Toru-Kubo J, Felice T, Mogensen J, Mathur S, Reinhardt Z, O’Mahony C, Elliott PM, Omar RZ, Kaski JP. Development of a Novel Risk Prediction Model for Sudden Cardiac Death in Childhood Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM Risk-Kids). JAMA Cardiol 2019; 4:918-927. [PMID: 31411652 PMCID: PMC6694401 DOI: 10.1001/jamacardio.2019.2861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 131] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2019] [Accepted: 06/19/2019] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Importance Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most common mode of death in childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but there is no validated algorithm to identify those at highest risk. Objective To develop and validate an SCD risk prediction model that provides individualized risk estimates. Design, Setting, and Participants A prognostic model was developed from a retrospective, multicenter, longitudinal cohort study of 1024 consecutively evaluated patients aged 16 years or younger with HCM. The study was conducted from January 1, 1970, to December 31, 2017. Exposures The model was developed using preselected predictor variables (unexplained syncope, maximal left-ventricular wall thickness, left atrial diameter, left-ventricular outflow tract gradient, and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia) identified from the literature and internally validated using bootstrapping. Main Outcomes and Measures A composite outcome of SCD or an equivalent event (aborted cardiac arrest, appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy, or sustained ventricular tachycardia associated with hemodynamic compromise). Results Of the 1024 patients included in the study, 699 were boys (68.3%); mean (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 11 (7-14) years. Over a median follow-up of 5.3 years (IQR, 2.6-8.3; total patient years, 5984), 89 patients (8.7%) died suddenly or had an equivalent event (annual event rate, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.15-1.92). The pediatric model was developed using preselected variables to predict the risk of SCD. The model's ability to predict risk at 5 years was validated; the C statistic was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72), and the calibration slope was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.59-1.38). For every 10 implantable cardioverter defibrillators implanted in patients with 6% or more of a 5-year SCD risk, 1 patient may potentially be saved from SCD at 5 years. Conclusions and Relevance This new, validated risk stratification model for SCD in childhood HCM may provide individualized estimates of risk at 5 years using readily obtained clinical risk factors. External validation studies are required to demonstrate the accuracy of this model's predictions in diverse patient populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabrielle Norrish
- Centre for Inherited Cardiovascular Diseases, Department of Cardiology, Great Ormond Street Hospital, London, United Kingdom
- Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- European Reference Network for Rare and Complex Diseases of the Heart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Tao Ding
- Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ella Field
- Centre for Inherited Cardiovascular Diseases, Department of Cardiology, Great Ormond Street Hospital, London, United Kingdom
- Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- European Reference Network for Rare and Complex Diseases of the Heart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Lidia Ziółkowska
- Department of Cardiology, The Children’s Memorial Health Institute, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Iacopo Olivotto
- Cardiothoracovascular Department, Careggi University Hospital, Florence, Italy
| | - Giuseppe Limongelli
- European Reference Network for Rare and Complex Diseases of the Heart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Cardiothoracic Sciences, Monaldi Hospital, Naples, Italy
| | | | - Robert Weintraub
- Department of Cardiology, The Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
- Department of Clinical Sciences, The Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, Parkville, Australia
- Department of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Elena Biagini
- Department of Cardiology, S. Orsola-Malpighi Hospital, Bologna, Italy
| | - Luca Ragni
- Department of Cardiology, S. Orsola-Malpighi Hospital, Bologna, Italy
| | - Terence Prendiville
- The Children’s Heart Centre, Our Lady’s Children’s Hospital, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Sophie Duignan
- The Children’s Heart Centre, Our Lady’s Children’s Hospital, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Karen McLeod
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, Royal Hospital for Children, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Maria Ilina
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, Royal Hospital for Children, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Adrián Fernández
- Department of Ambulatory Cardiology, Favaloro Foundation University Hospital, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Regina Bökenkamp
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Anwar Baban
- European Reference Network for Rare and Complex Diseases of the Heart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology and Cardiac Surgery, Bambino Gesu Hospital, Rome, Italy
| | - Peter Kubuš
- Children’s Heart Centre, University Hospital Motol, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Piers E. F. Daubeney
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, Royal Brompton and Harefield NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Georgia Sarquella-Brugada
- European Reference Network for Rare and Complex Diseases of the Heart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Arrhythmia and Inherited Cardiac Diseases Unit, Hospital Sant Joan de Déu, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- Medical Sciences Department, School of Medicine, University of Girona, Girona, Spain
| | - Sergi Cesar
- European Reference Network for Rare and Complex Diseases of the Heart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Arrhythmia and Inherited Cardiac Diseases Unit, Hospital Sant Joan de Déu, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Chiara Marrone
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital, Bergamo, Italy
| | - Vinay Bhole
- The Heart Unit, Birmingham Children’s Hospital, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Constancio Medrano
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain
| | - Orhan Uzun
- Children’s Heart Unit, University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, United Kingdom
| | - Elspeth Brown
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, Leeds General Infirmary, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Ferran Gran
- Paediatric Cardiology Department, Val d’Hebron University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Francisco J. Castro
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Virgen de la Arrixaca, Murcia, Spain
| | - Graham Stuart
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, Bristol Royal Hospital for Children, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | | | - Roberto Barriales-Villa
- Department of Cardiology, Complexo Hospitalario Universitario A Coruña, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Cardiovasculares, A Coruña, Spain
| | - Luis G. Guereta
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospital La Paz, Madrid, Spain
| | - Satish Adwani
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Katie Linter
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, United Kingdom
| | - Tara Bharucha
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, Southampton General Hospital, Southampton, United Kingdom
| | - Pablo Garcia-Pavia
- European Reference Network for Rare and Complex Diseases of the Heart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Cardiology, Hospital Universitario Puerta de Hierro Majadahonda, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Cardiovasculares, Madrid, Spain
- Department of Cardiology, University Francisco de Vitoria, Pozuelo de Alarcon, Spain
| | | | - Margherita M. Calcagnino
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospitals Parma, Parma, Italy
- Cardiology Unit, IRCCS Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Caroline B. Jones
- Department of Cardiology, Alder Hey Children’s Hospital, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Hans De Wilde
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
| | - J. Toru-Kubo
- Department of Cardiology and Geriatrics, Kochi Medical School, Kochi University, Kochi, Japan
| | - Tiziana Felice
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, Mater Dei Hospital, Msida, Malta
| | - Jens Mogensen
- Department of Cardiology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
| | - Sujeev Mathur
- Children’s Heart Service, Evelina Children’s Hospital, London, United Kingdom
| | - Zdenka Reinhardt
- Department of Paediatric Cardiology, The Freeman Hospital, Newcastle, United Kingdom
| | - Constantinos O’Mahony
- Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- European Reference Network for Rare and Complex Diseases of the Heart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- St Bartholomew’s Centre for Inherited Cardiovascular Diseases, Barts Heart Centre, St Bartholomew’s Hospital, West Smithfield, London, United Kingdom
| | - Perry M. Elliott
- Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- European Reference Network for Rare and Complex Diseases of the Heart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- St Bartholomew’s Centre for Inherited Cardiovascular Diseases, Barts Heart Centre, St Bartholomew’s Hospital, West Smithfield, London, United Kingdom
| | - Rumana Z. Omar
- Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Juan P. Kaski
- Centre for Inherited Cardiovascular Diseases, Department of Cardiology, Great Ormond Street Hospital, London, United Kingdom
- Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- European Reference Network for Rare and Complex Diseases of the Heart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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