Development of an online calculator for the prediction of seizure freedom following pediatric hemispherectomy using the Hemispherectomy Outcome Prediction Scale (HOPS)

OBJECTIVES

Although hemispheric surgeries are among the most effective procedures for drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) in the pediatric population, there is a large variability in seizure outcomes at the group level. A recently developed HOPS score provides individualized estimation of likelihood of seizure freedom to complement clinical judgement. The objective of this study was to develop a freely accessible online calculator that accurately predicts the probability of seizure freedom for any patient at 1-, 2-, and 5-years post-hemispherectomy.

METHODS

Retrospective data of all pediatric patients with DRE and seizure outcome data from the original Hemispherectomy Outcome Prediction Scale (HOPS) study were included. The primary outcome of interest was time-to-seizure recurrence. A multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression model was developed to predict the likelihood of post-hemispheric surgery seizure freedom at three time points (1-, 2- and 5- years) based on a combination of variables identified by clinical judgment and inferential statistics predictive of the primary outcome. The final model from this study was encoded in a publicly accessible online calculator on the International Network for Epilepsy Surgery and Treatment (iNEST) website (https://hops-calculator.com/).

RESULTS

The selected variables for inclusion in the final model included the five original HOPS variables (age at seizure onset, etiologic substrate, seizure semiology, prior non-hemispheric resective surgery, and contralateral fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography [FDG-PET] hypometabolism) and three additional variables (age at surgery, history of infantile spasms, and magnetic resonance imaging [MRI] lesion). Predictors of shorter time-to-seizure recurrence included younger age at seizure onset, prior resective surgery, generalized seizure semiology, FDG-PET hypometabolism contralateral to the side of surgery, contralateral MRI lesion, non-lesional MRI, non-stroke etiologies, and a history of infantile spasms. The area under the curve (AUC) of the final model was 73.0%.

SIGNIFICANCE

Online calculators are useful, cost-free tools that can assist physicians in risk estimation and inform joint decision-making processes with patients and families, potentially leading to greater satisfaction. Although the HOPS data was validated in the original analysis, the authors encourage external validation of this new calculator.

Comparison of the real-world effectiveness of vertical versus lateral functional hemispherotomy techniques for pediatric drug-resistant epilepsy: A post hoc analysis of the HOPS study

Objective

This study was undertaken to determine whether the vertical parasagittal approach or the lateral peri‐insular/peri‐Sylvian approach to hemispheric surgery is the superior technique in achieving long‐term seizure freedom.

Methods

We conducted a post hoc subgroup analysis of the HOPS (Hemispheric Surgery Outcome Prediction Scale) study, an international, multicenter, retrospective cohort study that identified predictors of seizure freedom through logistic regression modeling. Only patients undergoing vertical parasagittal, lateral peri‐insular/peri‐Sylvian, or lateral trans‐Sylvian hemispherotomy were included in this post hoc analysis. Differences in seizure freedom rates were assessed using a time‐to‐event method and calculated using the Kaplan–Meier survival method.

Results

Data for 672 participants across 23 centers were collected on the specific hemispherotomy approach. Of these, 72 (10.7%) underwent vertical parasagittal hemispherotomy and 600 (89.3%) underwent lateral peri‐insular/peri‐Sylvian or trans‐Sylvian hemispherotomy. Seizure freedom was obtained in 62.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 53.5%–70.2%) of the entire cohort at 10‐year follow‐up. Seizure freedom was 88.8% (95% CI = 78.9%–94.3%) at 1‐year follow‐up and persisted at 85.5% (95% CI = 74.7%–92.0%) across 5‐ and 10‐year follow‐up in the vertical subgroup. In contrast, seizure freedom decreased from 89.2% (95% CI = 86.3%–91.5%) at 1‐year to 72.1% (95% CI = 66.9%–76.7%) at 5‐year to 57.2% (95% CI = 46.6%–66.4%) at 10‐year follow‐up for the lateral subgroup. Log‐rank test found that vertical hemispherotomy was associated with durable seizure‐free progression compared to the lateral approach (p = .01). Patients undergoing the lateral hemispherotomy technique had a shorter time‐to‐seizure recurrence (hazard ratio = 2.56, 95% CI = 1.08–6.04, p = .03) and increased seizure recurrence odds (odds ratio = 3.67, 95% CI = 1.05–12.86, p = .04) compared to those undergoing the vertical hemispherotomy technique.

Significance

This pilot study demonstrated more durable seizure freedom of the vertical technique compared to lateral hemispherotomy techniques. Further studies, such as prospective expertise‐based observational studies or a randomized clinical trial, are required to determine whether a vertical approach to hemispheric surgery provides superior long‐term seizure outcomes.

Hemispherectomy Outcome Prediction Scale: Development and validation of a seizure freedom prediction tool

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a model to predict seizure freedom in children undergoing cerebral hemispheric surgery for the treatment of drug-resistant epilepsy.

METHODS

We analyzed 1267 hemispheric surgeries performed in pediatric participants across 32 centers and 12 countries to identify predictors of seizure freedom at 3 months after surgery. A multivariate logistic regression model was developed based on 70% of the dataset (training set) and validated on 30% of the dataset (validation set). Missing data were handled using multiple imputation techniques.

RESULTS

Overall, 817 of 1237 (66%) hemispheric surgeries led to seizure freedom (median follow-up = 24 months), and 1050 of 1237 (85%) were seizure-free at 12 months after surgery. A simple regression model containing age at seizure onset, presence of generalized seizure semiology, presence of contralateral 18-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose-positron emission tomography hypometabolism, etiologic substrate, and previous nonhemispheric resective surgery is predictive of seizure freedom (area under the curve = .72). A Hemispheric Surgery Outcome Prediction Scale (HOPS) score was devised that can be used to predict seizure freedom.

SIGNIFICANCE

Children most likely to benefit from hemispheric surgery can be selected and counseled through the implementation of a scale derived from a multiple regression model. Importantly, children who are unlikely to experience seizure control can be spared from the complications and deficits associated with this surgery. The HOPS score is likely to help physicians in clinical decision-making.

Specificity of electroclinical features in the diagnosis of ring chromosome 20

BACKGROUND

Ring chromosome 20 (R20) syndrome is a chromosomal disorder characterized mainly by drug-resistant frontal lobe seizures, recurrent nonconvulsive status epilepticus (NCSE), and typical EEG features. The aim of this study was to investigate if this triad is common and specific to all patients with R20.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study (from 2000 to 2011), we selected patients who fulfilled at least two out of three criteria: drug-resistant frontal lobe seizures, recurrent NCSE, and characteristic electroencephalography (EEG) features. In all patients, diagnosis was based on karyotype analysis of at least 100 metaphases.

RESULTS

We identified 36 patients who met at least two of the selected criteria: six patients (16.7%) with R20 and 30 (83.3%) without R20 (non-R20). All patients with R20 met all three criteria. Eleven (36.7%) patients without R20, however, also displayed the full triad. In 19 patients without R20 (63.3%), one of the three clinical features was missing: frontal lobe seizures were not resistant to antiepileptic drugs (AED) in four (13.3%), recurrent NCSE was missing in six (20%), and nine (30%) patients did not have typical EEG features. Based on this data, specificity was 63.3%, positive predictive value was 35.3%, and sensitivity and negative predictive values were 100%. Additionally, a review of all publications describing the R20 phenotype revealed that 81.98% of patients with R20 display the full electroclinical triad.

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, all patients with R20 displayed the three electroclinical characteristics. This is in line with previous reports (presenting high sensitivity and negative predictive value). However, these features can also be observed in other epilepsies and are not specific to R20. Our findings suggest that in the presence of the full triad of symptoms, karyotype analysis focused on chromosome 20 should be conducted.

Functional surgery in pediatric drug-resistant posterior cortex epilepsy: Electro-clinical findings, cognitive and seizure outcome

PURPOSE

Epilepsies originated from the occipital, parietal and/or the posterior edge of the temporal lobe are grouped together into posterior cortex epilepsy (PCE). Our objective was firstly to describe electro-clinical and imaging findings in the presurgical evaluation of children with PCE, and secondly to identify potential factors associated with surgical and cognitive outcomes.

METHOD

From the total of patients referred to the Epilepsy Monitoring Unit of 'Hospital Universitario Niño Jesús' from 2003 to 2016, 55 had drug-resistant PCE. Different variables obtained from the multimodal presurgical work-up were analyzed among patients achieving seizure freedom after surgery (ILAE class 1) and patients with persistent seizures. Categorical variables were compared with Fisheŕs exact test and numeric variables with t-Student for independent samples, and multiple logistic regression were used to analyze predictive values.

RESULTS

Median duration of epilepsy until surgery was 5 years [3-10 years]. Fifty patients showed lesions in the MRI, and 62.5% had concordant MRI-PET corregistration. 37 (67%) patients were operated (lesionectomy in 21 subjects, tailored resection based on intracranial studies in 16), and 23 (62,2%) reached ILAE class 1, with a mean follow-up period of 3.51 [1-12] years. A lower number of basal seizures and antiepileptic drugs, a well-defined lesion on the MRI, an epileptogenic zone (EZ) restricted to the posterior quadrant and the normalization of postsurgical EEGs were associated with seizure freedom (p<0.05). Additionally, 65% of patients had a long-term improvement of cognitive performances.

CONCLUSIONS

Epilepsy surgery should be considered in children with drug-resistant PCE, especially in those with a restricted EZ.