Predicting haemoglobin deferral using machine learning models: Can we use the same prediction model across countries?

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Personalized donation strategies based on haemoglobin (Hb) prediction models may reduce Hb deferrals and hence costs of donation, meanwhile improving commitment of donors. We previously found that prediction models perform better in validation data with a high Hb deferral rate. We therefore investigate how Hb deferral prediction models perform when exchanged with other blood establishments.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Donation data from the past 5 years from random samples of 10,000 donors from Australia, Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands and South Africa were used to fit random forest models for Hb deferral prediction. Trained models were exchanged between blood establishments. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR). Variable importance was assessed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values.

RESULTS

Across the validation datasets and exchanged models, the AUPR ranged from 0.05 to 0.43. Exchanged models performed similarly within validation datasets, irrespective of the origin of the training data. Apart from subtle differences, the importance of most predictor variables was similar in all trained models.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that Hb deferral prediction models trained in different blood establishments perform similarly within different validation datasets, regardless of the deferral rate of their training data. Models learn similar associations in different blood establishments.

The added value of ferritin levels and genetic markers for the prediction of haemoglobin deferral

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

On-site haemoglobin deferral for blood donors is sometimes necessary for donor health but demotivating for donors and inefficient for the blood bank. Deferral rates could be reduced by accurately predicting donors' haemoglobin status before they visit the blood bank. Although such predictive models have been published, there is ample room for improvement in predictive performance. We aim to assess the added value of ferritin levels or genetic markers as predictor variables in haemoglobin deferral prediction models.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Support vector machines with and without this information (the full and reduced model, respectively) are compared in Finland and the Netherlands. Genetic markers are available in the Finnish data and ferritin levels in the Dutch data.

RESULTS

Although there is a clear association between haemoglobin deferral and both ferritin levels and several genetic markers, predictive performance increases only marginally with their inclusion as predictors. The recall of deferrals increases from 68.6% to 69.9% with genetic markers and from 79.7% to 80.0% with ferritin levels included. Subgroup analyses show that the added value of these predictors is higher in specific subgroups, for example, for donors with minor alleles on single-nucleotide polymorphism 17:58358769, recall of deferral increases from 73.3% to 93.3%.

CONCLUSION

Including ferritin levels or genetic markers in haemoglobin deferral prediction models improves predictive performance. The increase in overall performance is small but may be substantial for specific subgroups. We recommend including this information as predictor variables when available, but not to collect it for this purpose only.

An international comparison of haemoglobin deferral prediction models for blood banking

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Blood banks use a haemoglobin (Hb) threshold before blood donation to minimize donors' risk of anaemia. Hb prediction models may guide decisions on which donors to invite, and should ideally also be generally applicable, thus in different countries and settings. In this paper, we compare the outcome of various prediction models in different settings and highlight differences and similarities.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Donation data of repeat donors from the past 5 years of Australia, Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands and South Africa were used to fit five identical prediction models: logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, linear mixed model and dynamic linear mixed model. Only donors with five or more donation attempts were included to ensure having informative data from all donors. Analyses were performed for men and women separately and outcomes compared.

RESULTS

Within countries and overall, different models perform similarly well. However, there are substantial differences in model performance between countries, and there is a positive association between the deferral rate in a country and the ability to predict donor deferral. Nonetheless, the importance of predictor variables across countries is similar and is highest for the previous Hb level.

CONCLUSION

The limited impact of model architecture and country indicates that all models show similar relationships between the predictor variables and donor deferral. Donor deferral is found to be better predictable in countries with high deferral rates. Therefore, such countries may benefit more from deferral prediction models than those with low deferral rates.

Explainable haemoglobin deferral predictions using machine learning models: Interpretation and consequences for the blood supply

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Accurate predictions of haemoglobin (Hb) deferral for whole-blood donors could aid blood banks in reducing deferral rates and increasing efficiency and donor motivation. Complex models are needed to make accurate predictions, but predictions must also be explainable. Before the implementation of a prediction model, its impact on the blood supply should be estimated to avoid shortages.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Donation visits between October 2017 and December 2021 were selected from Sanquin's database system. The following variables were available for each visit: donor sex, age, donation start time, month, number of donations in the last 24 months, most recent ferritin level, days since last ferritin measurement, Hb at nth previous visit (n between 1 and 5), days since the nth previous visit. Outcome Hb deferral has two classes: deferred and not deferred. Support vector machines were used as prediction models, and SHapley Additive exPlanations values were used to quantify the contribution of each variable to the model predictions. Performance was assessed using precision and recall. The potential impact on blood supply was estimated by predicting deferral at earlier or later donation dates.

RESULTS

We present a model that predicts Hb deferral in an explainable way. If used in practice, 64% of non-deferred donors would be invited on or before their original donation date, while 80% of deferred donors would be invited later.

CONCLUSION

By using this model to invite donors, the number of blood bank visits would increase by 15%, while deferral rates would decrease by 60% (currently 3% for women and 1% for men).

Individual and environmental determinants of serum ferritin levels: A structural equation model

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Serum ferritin levels are increasingly being used to assess iron stores. Considerable variation in ferritin levels within and between individuals has been observed, but our current understanding of factors that explain this variation is far from complete. We aim to combine multiple potential determinants in an integrative model, and investigate their relative importance and potential interactions.

METHODS

We use ferritin measurements collected by Sanquin Blood Bank on both prospective (N = 59 596) and active blood donors (N = 78 318) to fit a structural equation model with three latent constructs (individual characteristics, donation history, and environmental factors). Parameters were estimated separately by sex and donor status.

RESULTS

The model explained 25% of ferritin variance in prospective donors, and 40% in active donors. Individual characteristics and donation history were the most important determinants of ferritin levels in active donors. The association between environmental factors and ferritin was smaller but still substantial; higher exposure to air pollution was associated with higher ferritin levels, and this association was considerably stronger for active blood donors than for prospective donors.

DISCUSSION

In active donors, individual characteristics explain 20% (17%) of ferritin variation, donation history explains 14% (25%) and environmental factors explain 5% (4%) for women (men). Our model presents known ferritin determinants in a broader perspective, allowing for comparison with other determinants as well as between new and active donors, or between men and women.

Associations Between Symptoms, Donor Characteristics and IgG Antibody Response in 2082 COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma Donors

Many studies already reported on the association between patient characteristics on the severity of COVID-19 disease outcome, but the relation with SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels is less clear. To investigate this in more detail, we performed a retrospective observational study in which we used the IgG antibody response from 11,118 longitudinal antibody measurements of 2,082 unique COVID convalescent plasma donors. COVID-19 symptoms and donor characteristics were obtained by a questionnaire. Antibody responses were modelled using a linear mixed-effects model. Our study confirms that the SARS-CoV-2 antibody response is associated with patient characteristics like body mass index and age. Antibody decay was faster in male than in female donors (average half-life of 62 versus 72 days). Most interestingly, we also found that three symptoms (headache, anosmia, nasal cold) were associated with lower peak IgG, while six other symptoms (dry cough, fatigue, diarrhoea, fever, dyspnoea, muscle weakness) were associated with higher IgG concentrations.

First results of a ferritin-based blood donor deferral policy in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

Whole blood donors are at risk of becoming iron deficient. To monitor iron stores, Sanquin implemented a new deferral policy based on ferritin levels, in addition to the traditional hemoglobin measurements.

METHODS

Ferritin levels are determined in every fifth donation, as well as in all first-time donors. Donors with ferritin levels <15 ng/mL (WHO threshold) are deferred for 12 months; those ≥15 and ≤30 ng/mL for 6 months. The first results were analyzed and are presented here.

RESULTS

The results show that 25% of women (N = 20151, 95% CI 24%-25%) and 1.6% of men (N = 10391, 95% CI 1.4%-1.8%) have ferritin levels ≤30 ng/mL at their first blood center visit. For repeat (non-first-time) donors, these proportions are higher: 53% of women (N = 28329, 95% CI 52%-54%) and 42% of men (N = 31089, 95% CI 41%-43%). After a 6-month deferral, in 88% of returning women (N = 3059, 95% CI 87%-89%) and 99% of returning men (N = 3736, 95% CI 98%-99%) ferritin levels were ≥15 ng/mL. After a 12-month deferral, in 74% of returning women (N = 486, 95% CI 70%-78%) and 95% of returning men (N = 479, 95% CI 94%-97%) ferritin levels increased to ≥15 ng/mL.

CONCLUSION

Deferral of donors whose pre-donation ferritin levels were ≤30 ng/mL might prevent donors from returning with ferritin levels <15 ng/mL. This policy is promising to mitigate effects of repeated donations on iron stores.

TWEAK and its receptor Fn14 in the synovium of patients with rheumatoid arthritis compared to psoriatic arthritis and its response to tumour necrosis factor blockade

Objective:

To investigate the expression of tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-like weak inducer of apoptosis (TWEAK) and its receptor fibroblast growth factor inducible 14 (Fn14) in the inflamed synovium of patients with arthritis, as TWEAK blockade has been observed to have a beneficial effect in an animal model of rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

Methods:

Synovial tissue (ST) biopsies were obtained from 6 early, methotrexate-naive patients with RA as well as 13 patients with RA and 16 patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) who were matched for treatment and disease duration. Serial ST samples were obtained from a separate cohort of 13 patients with RA before and after infliximab treatment. TWEAK and Fn14 expression was evaluated by immunohistochemistry and digital image analysis.

Results:

TWEAK and Fn14 were clearly expressed in ST of patients with RA and PsA. TWEAK expression was significantly higher in RA (sub)lining samples compared to PsA (p = 0.005 and p = 0.014, respectively), but Fn14 expression was comparable. Double immunofluorescence showed TWEAK and Fn14 expression on fibroblast-like synoviocytes and macrophages, but not T cells. Of interest, persistent TWEAK and Fn14 expression was found after anti-TNF therapy.

Conclusions:

TWEAK and Fn14 are abundantly expressed in the inflamed synovium of patients with RA and PsA. This raises the possibility that blocking TWEAK/Fn14 signalling could be of therapeutic benefit in inflammatory arthritis.

The clinical response to infliximab in rheumatoid arthritis is in part dependent on pretreatment tumour necrosis factor alpha expression in the synovium

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the heterogeneous clinical response to tumour necrosis factor (TNF)alpha blocking therapy in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) can be predicted by TNFalpha expression in the synovium before initiation of treatment.

METHODS

Prior to initiation of infliximab treatment, arthroscopic synovial tissue biopsies were obtained from 143 patients with active RA. At week 16, clinical response was evaluated using the 28-joint Disease Activity Score (DAS28). Immunohistochemistry was used to analyse the cell infiltrate as well as the expression of various cytokines, adhesion molecules and growth factors. Stained sections were evaluated by digital image analysis. Student t tests were used to compare responders (decrease in DAS28 > or =1.2) with non-responders (decrease in DAS28 <1.2) and multivariable regression was used to identify the independent predictors of clinical response.

RESULTS

Synovial tissue analysis confirmed our hypothesis that the baseline level of TNFalpha expression is a significant predictor of response to TNFalpha blocking therapy. TNFalpha expression in the intimal lining layer and synovial sublining were significantly higher in responders than in non-responders (p = 0.047 and p = 0.008, respectively). The numbers of macrophages, macrophage subsets and T cells (all able to produce TNFalpha) were also significantly higher in responders than in non-responders. The expression of interleukin (IL)1beta, IL6, IL18, IL10, E-selectin, intercellular adhesion molecule (ICAM)-1, vascular cell adhesion molecule (VCAM)-1, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) was not associated with response to anti-TNFalpha treatment.

CONCLUSION

The effects of TNFalpha blockade are in part dependent on synovial TNFalpha expression and infiltration by TNFalpha producing inflammatory cells. Clinical response cannot be predicted completely, indicating involvement of other as yet unknown mechanisms.

Blocking the receptor for C5a in patients with rheumatoid arthritis does not reduce synovial inflammation

OBJECTIVES

All complement pathways lead to the formation of C5a, which is believed to contribute to the influx and activation of C5a-receptor (C5aR) bearing cells into the joints of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Studies in animal models of RA have suggested therapeutic potential of C5aR blockade. In this study, we examined the effects of the C5aR blockade on synovial inflammation in RA patients.

METHODS

We performed a double-blind, placebo-controlled study using an orally administered C5aR-antagonist. Twenty-one patients with active RA were randomized 2:1 to treatment with a C5aR-antagonist AcF- (OpdChaWR) (PMX53) vs placebo for 28 days. Serum concentrations of PMX53 were determined. Synovial tissue was obtained at baseline and after 28 days of treatment for pharmacodynamic analysis using immunohistochemistry and digital image analysis.

RESULTS

All patients completed the study. Areas under the curve (AUCs) of PMX53 in patients' blood samples showed a mean of 40.8 nmol h/l. There was neither decrease in cell infiltration, nor changes in key biomarkers associated with clinical efficacy after active treatment. In addition, there was no trend towards clinical improvement in the C5aR-antagonist-treated group compared with placebo nor was there a correlation between the AUC and clinical response.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment with PMX53 did not result in a reduction of synovial inflammation despite reaching serum levels of PMX53 that block C5aR-mediated cell activation in vitro. The data suggest that C5aR blockade does not result in reduced synovial inflammation in RA patients.

Inhibition of forkhead box class O family member transcription factors in rheumatoid synovial tissue

OBJECTIVE

Phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase-dependent activation of protein kinase B (PKB) has been observed in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) synovial tissue, and mechanisms that interfere with this process are protective in animal models of arthritis. PKB can regulate cell survival and proliferation via phosphorylation-dependent inactivation of forkhead box class O (FoxO) transcription factors. The present study was undertaken to examine whether FoxO transcription factors are differentially inactivated in RA synovial tissue, and whether this inactivation correlates with laboratory and clinical parameters of disease activity.

METHODS

The expression and phosphorylation of FoxO family members were assessed in synovial biopsy tissue from 12 patients with RA and 9 patients with inflammatory osteoarthritis (OA), by immunohistochemistry and quantitative computer-assisted image analysis. Immunoblotting was used to assess the interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta)- and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha)-induced phosphorylation of FoxO1 and FoxO4 in cultured fibroblast-like synoviocytes (FLS) and macrophages.

RESULTS

FoxO1, FoxO3a, and FoxO4 were expressed and phosphorylated in synovial tissue from both RA patients and OA patients. In RA synovial tissue, phosphorylation of FoxO1 was observed in both FLS and macrophages, FoxO3a in T lymphocytes, and FoxO4 in macrophages alone. Following stimulation with IL-1beta and TNFalpha, FoxO1 and FoxO4 were phosphorylated in both RA and OA FLS and synovial macrophages, respectively. Inactivation of FoxO4 was significantly enhanced in the RA as compared with the OA synovial sublining. There was a strong negative correlation between inactivation of FoxO4 in RA synovial tissue and increased serum C-reactive protein levels and a raised erythrocyte sedimentation rate in RA patients.

CONCLUSION

All 3 FoxO family members examined were phosphorylated in both RA and OA synovial tissue; in particular, inactivation of FoxO4 was significantly enhanced in macrophages from RA synovial tissue. Thus, cell-specific inactivation of FoxO family members appears to differentially regulate cell survival and proliferation in the RA synovium.

Entorhinal projections terminate onto principal neurons and interneurons in the subiculum: A quantitative electron microscopical analysis in the rat

The synaptic organization of projections to the subiculum from superficial layers of the lateral and medial entorhinal cortex was analyzed in the rat, using anterograde neuroanatomical tracing followed by electron microscopical quantification. Our aim was to assess the synaptic organization and whether the two projection components (lateral, medial) within the perforant pathway are qualitatively and quantitatively similar with respect to the types of synapses formed and with respect to the postsynaptic targets of these entorhinal projections. The tracer biotinylated dextran amine (BDA) was injected into the lateral and medial entorhinal cortex, respectively, and resulting anterograde labeling in the subiculum was studied. For each of the two projection components, we analyzed in four animals (2 x 2) a total of 100 synapses/animal with respect to features of the synapse type, i.e. asymmetrical or symmetrical, as well as regarding their postsynaptic target, i.e. dendritic shaft or spine. No clear differences were observed between the two pathways. The majority of the synapses were of the asymmetrical type, making contact with spines (78%) or with dendritic shafts (14%). A low percentage of symmetrical synapses targeted dendritic shafts (4.2%) or spines (1.3%). About 2.5% of the synapses remained undetermined. The findings indicate that the majority of entorhinal fibers reaching the subiculum exert an excitatory influence primarily onto principal neurons, with a much smaller feed forward inhibitory component. Only a small percentage of entorhinal fibers in the subiculum appears to be inhibitory, largely influencing interneurons.