Effectiveness of a Mobile-Based Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance System (FluMob) Among Health Care Workers: Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND

Existing studies have suggested that internet-based participatory surveillance systems are a valid sentinel for influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance. However, there is limited scientific knowledge on the effectiveness of mobile-based ILI surveillance systems. Previous studies also adopted a passive surveillance approach and have not fully investigated the effectiveness of the systems and their determinants.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess the efficiency of a mobile-based surveillance system of ILI, termed FluMob, among health care workers using a targeted surveillance approach. Specifically, this study evaluated the effectiveness of the system for ILI surveillance pertaining to its participation engagement and surveillance power. In addition, we aimed to identify the factors that can moderate the effectiveness of the system.

METHODS

The FluMob system was launched in two large hospitals in Singapore from April 2016 to March 2018. A total of 690 clinical and nonclinical hospital staff participated in the study for 18 months and were prompted via app notifications to submit a survey listing 18 acute respiratory symptoms (eg, fever, cough, sore throat) on a weekly basis. There was a period of study disruption due to maintenance of the system and the end of the participation incentive between May and July of 2017.

RESULTS

On average, the individual submission rate was 41.4% (SD 24.3%), with a rate of 51.8% (SD 26.4%) before the study disruption and of 21.5% (SD 30.6%) after the disruption. Multivariable regression analysis showed that the adjusted individual submission rates were higher for participants who were older (<30 years, 31.4% vs 31-40 years, 40.2% [P<.001]; 41-50 years, 46.0% [P<.001]; >50 years, 39.9% [P=.01]), ethnic Chinese (Chinese, 44.4% vs non-Chinese, 34.7%; P<.001), and vaccinated against flu in the past year (vaccinated, 44.6% vs nonvaccinated, 34.4%; P<.001). In addition, the weekly ILI incidence was 1.07% on average. The Pearson correlation coefficient between ILI incidence estimated by FluMob and that reported by Singapore Ministry of Health was 0.04 (P=.75) with all data and was 0.38 (P=.006) including only data collected before the study disruption. Health care workers with higher risks of ILI and influenza such as women, non-Chinese, allied health staff, those who had children in their households, not vaccinated against influenza, and reported allergy demonstrated higher surveillance correlations.

CONCLUSIONS

Mobile-based ILI surveillance systems among health care workers can be effective. However, proper operation of the mobile system without major disruptions is vital for the engagement of participants and the persistence of surveillance power. Moreover, the effectiveness of the mobile surveillance system can be moderated by participants' characteristics, which highlights the importance of targeted disease surveillance that can reduce the cost of recruitment and engagement.

Increasing Influenza and Pneumococcal Vaccination Uptake in Seniors Using Point-of-Care Informational Interventions in Primary Care in Singapore: A Pragmatic, Cluster-Randomized Crossover Trial

Objectives. To evaluate the effectiveness of point-of-care informational interventions in general practitioner clinics to improve influenza and pneumococcal vaccination uptake among elderly patients.Methods. We conducted a pragmatic, cluster-randomized crossover trial in 22 private general practitioner clinics in Singapore, from November 2017 to July 2018. We included all patients aged 65 years or older. Clinics were assigned to a 3-month intervention (flyers and posters encouraging vaccination) plus 1-month washout period, and a 4-month control period (usual care). Primary outcomes were differences in vaccination uptake rates between periods. Secondary outcomes were identification of other factors associated with vaccination uptake.Results. A total of 4378 and 4459 patients were included in the intervention and control periods, respectively. Both influenza (5.9% vs 4.8%; P = .047) and pneumococcal (5.7% vs 3.7%; P = .001) vaccination uptake rates were higher during the intervention period compared with the control period. On multilevel logistic regression analysis, follow-up for hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, or any combination of the 3 was associated with uptake of both vaccines.Conclusions. Point-of-care informational interventions likely contributed to increased influenza and pneumococcal vaccination uptake. Patients on follow-up for hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, or any combination of the 3 were more likely to receive influenza and pneumococcal vaccination and should be actively engaged by physicians.Trial Registration. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03445117.

Socioecological differences in factors associated with inconsistent condom use with female sex workers and casual partners: an observational study of heterosexual men attending an anonymous HIV testing clinic in Singapore

Sexual practices among heterosexual men may differ between female sex workers (FSWs) and casual partners. We surveyed 203 heterosexual men and investigated the attributes associated with inconsistent condom use among them. Lower educational attainment was positively associated with inconsistent condom use with FSWs (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) 2.63; P = 0.018) and casual partners (aPR 1.55; P = 0.022), whereas early age of sexual debut (aPR 3.00; P = 0.012) and alcohol use during sex (aPR 7.95; P < 0.001) were positively associated with inconsistent condom use with FSWs. Socioecological factors may explain such differences.

Acceptability of HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) and Opinions on PrEP Service Delivery Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Singapore: A Qualitative Study

PrEP is effective in preventing HIV transmission among at-risk HIV-negative MSM. A qualitative descriptive study with five focus group discussions (N = 33) involving a purposively recruited sample of Singaporean MSM was conducted from August 2016 to April 2017 to understand local perspectives on potential barriers and motivators to the adoption of PrEP, prior to the implementation of PrEP services in Singapore. Knowledge of PrEP was high, and many viewed PrEP as an attractive alternative to condoms for HIV prevention. Concerns about PrEP included the cost of PrEP and related services, the frequency of PrEP-related clinic visits, fear of side effects, and the stigma associated with using PrEP. Participants felt PrEP was best provided by MSM-friendly providers, and more needed to be done to increase awareness of the effectiveness of PrEP. Access to PrEP for MSM in Singapore has to be affordable, patient-centered, and convenient to maximize the potential benefits of PrEP.

Strengthening teachers' abilities to implement a vision health program in Taiwanese schools

We designed a school-based, nationwide program called the 'New Era in Eye Health' to strengthen teacher training and to examine whether the existence of a government vision care policy influenced teachers' vision care knowledge and students' behavior. Baseline data and 3-month follow-up data were compared. A random sample of teachers (n = 660) from school vision health clusters in 22 cities/counties in Taiwan were invited to participate in our study and 436 agreed to participate (response rate = 66.1%). The mean age of participant teachers was 41.2 years, while the length of service mean was 14.6 years. For monitoring teacher outcomes, five cities/counties were selected as the intensely monitored group based on certain criteria. Sunlight diaries (n = 5434) were distributed and 3342 (61.5%) were returned. Teachers showed significant improvements in knowledge and behavior on the school vision health questionnaire. At the 3-month follow-up, the number of recesses as recorded by students' 'sunlight diary' increased. When teachers had better knowledge and behavior, recesses also increased. This study provided valuable insights to guide dissemination efforts for school vision health interventions and to help teachers implement research into their school vision health activities.

Performance of case definitions for influenza surveillance

Influenza-like illness (ILI) case definitions, such as those from the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, World Health Organization (WHO) and United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, are commonly used for influenza surveillance. We assessed how various case definitions performed during the initial wave of influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 infections in Singapore on a cohort of 727 patients with two to three blood samples and whose symptoms were reviewed fortnightly from June to October 2009. Using seroconversion (≥ 4-fold rise) to A/California/7/2009 (H1N1), we identified 36 presumptive influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 episodes and 664 episodes unrelated to influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Cough, fever and headache occurred more commonly in presumptive influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Although the sensitivity was low (36%), the recently revised WHO ILI case definition gave a higher positive predictive value (42%) and positive likelihood ratio (13.3) than the other case definitions. Results including only episodes with primary care consultations were similar. Individuals who worked or had episodes with fever, cough or sore throat were more likely to consult a physician, while episodes with Saturday onset were less likely, with some consultations skipped or postponed. Our analysis supports the use of the revised WHO ILI case definition, which includes only cough in the presence of fever defined as body temperature ≥ 38 °C for influenza surveillance.

Seroepidemiologic effects of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore

To estimate population attack rates of influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 in the Southern Hemisphere during June-August 2009, we conducted several serologic studies. We pooled individual-level data from studies using hemagglutination inhibition assays performed in Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore. We determined seropositive proportions (titer ≥40) for each study region by age-group and sex in pre- and postpandemic phases, as defined by jurisdictional notification data. After exclusions, the pooled database consisted of, 4,414 prepandemic assays and 7,715 postpandemic assays. In the prepandemic phase, older age groups showed greater seropositive proportions, with age-standardized, community-based proportions ranging from 3.5% in Singapore to 11.9% in New Zealand. In the postpandemic phase, seropositive proportions ranged from 17.5% in Singapore to 30.8% in New Zealand, with highest proportions seen in school-aged children. Pregnancy and residential care were associated with lower postpandemic seropositivity, whereas Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians and Pacific Peoples of New Zealand had greater postpandemic seropositivity.

Effectiveness of pandemic H1N1-2009 vaccination in reducing laboratory confirmed influenza infections among military recruits in tropical Singapore

Background

Limited information is available about pandemic H1N1-2009 influenza vaccine effectiveness in tropical communities. We studied the effectiveness of a pandemic H1N1 vaccination program in reducing influenza cases in Singapore.

Methods

A surveillance study was conducted among military personnel presenting with febrile respiratory illness from mid-2009 to mid-2010. Consenting individuals underwent nasal washes, which were tested with RT-PCR and subtyped. A vaccination program (inactivated monovalent Panvax H1N1-2009 vaccine) was carried out among recruits. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to quantify relative risks in the pre- and post-vaccination periods. An autoregressive generalised linear model (GLM) was developed to minimise confounding.

Results

Of 2858 participants, 437(15.3%), 60(2.1%), and 273(9.6%) had pandemic H1N1, H3N2, and influenza B. The ratio of relative risks for pandemic H1N1 infection before and after vaccination for the recruit camp relative to other camps was 0.14(0.016,0.49); for H3N2, 0.44(0.035,1.8); and for influenza B, 18(0.77,89). Using the GLM for the recruit camp, post-vaccination weekly cases decreased by 54%(37%,67%, p<0.001) from that expected without vaccination; influenza B increased by 66 times(9–479 times, p<0.001); with no statistical difference for H3N2 (p = 0.54).

Conclusions

Pandemic vaccination reduced H1N1-2009 disease burden among military recruits. Routine seasonal influenza vaccination should be considered.

Comparability of different methods for estimating influenza infection rates over a single epidemic wave

Estimation of influenza infection rates is important for determination of the extent of epidemic spread and for calculation of severity indicators. The authors compared estimated infection rates from paired and cross-sectional serologic surveys, rates of influenza like illness (ILI) obtained from sentinel general practitioners (GPs), and ILI samples that tested positive for influenza using data from similar periods collected during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic in Singapore. The authors performed sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of estimates to input parameter uncertainties, and they determined sample sizes required for differing levels of precision. Estimates from paired seroconversion were 17% (95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI): 14, 20), higher than those from cross-sectional serology (12%, 95% BCI: 9, 17). Adjusted ILI estimates were 15% (95% BCI: 10, 25), and estimates computed from ILI and laboratory data were 12% (95% BCI: 8, 18). Serologic estimates were least sensitive to the risk of input parameter misspecification. ILI-based estimates were more sensitive to parameter misspecification, though this was lessened by incorporation of laboratory data. Obtaining a 5-percentage-point spread for the 95% confidence interval in infection rates would require more than 1,000 participants per serologic study, a sentinel network of 90 GPs, or 50 GPs when combined with laboratory samples. The various types of estimates will provide comparable findings if accurate input parameters can be obtained.

A clinical diagnostic model for predicting influenza among young adult military personnel with febrile respiratory illness in Singapore

Introduction

Influenza infections present with wide-ranging clinical features. We aim to compare the differences in presentation between influenza and non-influenza cases among those with febrile respiratory illness (FRI) to determine predictors of influenza infection.

Methods

Personnel with FRI (defined as fever≥37.5°C, with cough or sore throat) were recruited from the sentinel surveillance system in the Singapore military. Nasal washes were collected, and tested using the Resplex II and additional PCR assays for etiological determination. Interviewer-administered questionnaires collected information on patient demographics and clinical features. Univariate comparison of the various parameters was conducted, with statistically significant parameters entered into a multivariate logistic regression model. The final multivariate model for influenza versus non-influenza cases was used to build a predictive probability clinical diagnostic model.

Results

821 out of 2858 subjects recruited from 11 May 2009 to 25 Jun 2010 had influenza, of which 434 (52.9%) had 2009 influenza A (H1N1), 58 (7.1%) seasonal influenza A (H3N2) and 269 (32.8%) influenza B. Influenza-positive cases were significantly more likely to present with running nose, chills and rigors, ocular symptoms and higher temperature, and less likely with sore throat, photophobia, injected pharynx, and nausea/vomiting. Our clinical diagnostic model had a sensitivity of 65% (95% CI: 58%, 72%), specificity of 69% (95% CI: 62%, 75%), and overall accuracy of 68% (95% CI: 64%, 71%), performing significantly better than conventional influenza-like illness (ILI) criteria.

Conclusions

Use of a clinical diagnostic model may help predict influenza better than the conventional ILI definition among young adults with FRI.

Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective

Influenza pandemics present a global threat owing to their potential mortality and substantial economic impacts. Stockpiling antiviral drugs to manage a pandemic is an effective strategy to offset their negative impacts; however, little is known about the long-term optimal size of the stockpile under uncertainty and the characteristics of different countries. Using an epidemic-economic model we studied the effect on total mortality and costs of antiviral stockpile sizes for Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, the USA and Zimbabwe. In the model, antivirals stockpiling considerably reduced mortality. There was greater potential avoidance of expected costs in the higher resourced countries (e.g. from $55 billion to $27 billion over a 30 year time horizon for the USA) and large avoidance of fatalities in those less resourced (e.g. from 11.4 to 2.3 million in Indonesia). Under perfect allocation, higher resourced countries should aim to store antiviral stockpiles able to cover at least 15 per cent of their population, rising to 25 per cent with 30 per cent misallocation, to minimize fatalities and economic costs. Stockpiling is estimated not to be cost-effective for two-thirds of the world's population under current antivirals pricing. Lower prices and international cooperation are necessary to make the life-saving potential of antivirals cost-effective in resource-limited countries.

Republished paper: Populations and partnerships: insights from metapopulation and pair models into the epidemiology of gonorrhoea and other sexually transmitted infections

BACKGROUND

Models of sexually transmitted infection (STI) transmission can offer insights as to why gonorrhoea and other STIs are disproportionately concentrated in epidemiologically distinct subpopulations.

METHODS

We highlight two different constructs for modelling STIs by drawing on previously published work on pair and metapopulation models, and reanalysed partnership data from the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles II (NATSAL II) in the UK.

RESULTS

Pair models account for intrapair reinfections and are necessary to illustrate the importance of partnership dynamics. The pair modelling framework suggests that a key determinant of transmission is the length of time or 'gap' between partnerships, and that partnerships of medium length can potentially be more efficient for gonococcal transmission than the shortest partnerships. As for the metapopulation framework, one key insight is that the epidemiology of gonorrhoea is possibly being driven by subpopulations with higher than average concentrations of individuals with high sexual risk activity. The reanalysis of data on sexual behaviour in the UK shows that well recognised population subgroups at higher risk of gonorrhoea do also have higher levels of risk behaviour, such as a higher average number of new partners per year, as well as a higher prevalence of concurrent partnerships and short gaps before partnerships.

RESULTS

The concentration of risk behaviour in key population subgroups may be leading to self-sustaining pockets of transmission for STIs. Combinations of partnership behaviours at the level of population subgroups should be a subject of future empirical research as well as modelling efforts.

Populations and partnerships: insights from metapopulation and pair models into the epidemiology of gonorrhoea and other sexually transmitted infections

BACKGROUND

Models of sexually transmitted infection (STI) transmission can offer insights as to why gonorrhoea and other STIs are disproportionately concentrated in epidemiologically distinct subpopulations.

METHODS

We highlight two different constructs for modelling STIs by drawing on previously published work on pair and metapopulation models, and reanalyzed partnership data from the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles II (NATSAL II) in the UK.

RESULTS

Pair models account for intrapair reinfections and are necessary to illustrate the importance of partnership dynamics. The pair modelling framework suggests that a key determinant of transmission is the length of time or 'gap' between partnerships, and that partnerships of medium length can potentially be more efficient for gonococcal transmission than the shortest partnerships. As for the metapopulation framework, one key insight is that the epidemiology of gonorrhoea is possibly being driven by subpopulations with higher than average concentrations of individuals with high sexual risk activity. The reanalysis of data on sexual behaviour in the UK shows that well recognised population subgroups at higher risk of gonorrhoea do also have higher levels of risk behaviour, such as a higher average number of new partners per year, as well as a higher prevalence of concurrent partnerships and short gaps before partnerships.

RESULTS

The concentration of risk behaviour in key population subgroups may be leading to self-sustaining pockets of transmission for STIs. Combinations of partnership behaviours at the level of population subgroups should be a subject of future empirical research as well as modelling efforts.

Serological response in RT-PCR confirmed H1N1-2009 influenza a by hemagglutination inhibition and virus neutralization assays: an observational study

BACKGROUND

We describe the serological response following H1N1-2009 influenza A infections confirmed by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR).

METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The study included patients admitted to hospital, subjects of a seroepidemiologic cohort study, and participants identified from outbreak studies in Singapore. Baseline (first available blood sample) and follow-up blood samples were analyzed for antibody titers to H1N1-2009 and recently circulating seasonal influenza A virus strains by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and virus micro-neutralization (VM) assays. 267 samples from 118 cases of H1N1-2009 were analyzed. Geometric mean titers by HI peaked at 123 (95% confidence interval, CI 43-356) between days 30 to 39. The chance of observing seroconversion (four-fold or greater increase of antibodies) was maximized when restricting analysis to 45 participants with baseline sera collected within 5 days of onset and follow-up sera collected 15 or more days after onset; for these participants, 82% and 89% seroconverted to A/California/7/2009 H1N1 by HI and VM respectively. A four-fold or greater increase in cross-reactive antibody titers to seasonal A/Brisbane/59/2007 H1N1, A/Brisbane/10/2007 H3N2 and A/Wisconsin/15/2009 H3N2 occurred in 20%, 18% and 16% of participants respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE

Appropriately timed paired serology detects 80-90% RT-PCR confirmed H1N1-2009; Antibodies from infection with H1N1-2009 cross-reacted with seasonal influenza viruses.

Oseltamivir ring prophylaxis for containment of 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreaks

BACKGROUND

From June 22 through June 25, 2009, four outbreaks of infection with the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus occurred in Singapore military camps. We report the efficacy of ring chemoprophylaxis (geographically targeted containment by means of prophylaxis) with oseltamivir to control outbreaks of 2009 H1N1 influenza in semiclosed environments.

METHODS

All personnel with suspected infection were tested and clinically isolated if infection was confirmed. In addition, we administered postexposure ring chemoprophylaxis with oseltamivir and segregated the affected military units to contain the spread of the virus. All personnel were screened three times weekly both for virologic infection, by means of nasopharyngeal swabs and reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assay with sequencing, and for clinical symptoms, by means of questionnaires.

RESULTS

A total of 1175 personnel were at risk across the four sites, with 1100 receiving oseltamivir prophylaxis. A total of 75 personnel (6.4%) were infected before the intervention, and 7 (0.6%) after the intervention. There was a significant reduction in the overall reproductive number (the number of new cases attributable to the index case), from 1.91 (95% credible interval, 1.50 to 2.36) before the intervention to 0.11 (95% credible interval, 0.05 to 0.20) after the intervention. Three of the four outbreaks showed a significant reduction in the rate of infection after the intervention. Molecular analysis revealed that all four outbreaks were derived from the New York lineage of the 2009 H1N1 virus and that cases within each outbreak were due to transmission rather than unrelated episodes of infection. Of the 816 personnel treated with oseltamivir who were surveyed, 63 (7.7%) reported mild, nonrespiratory side effects of the drug, with no severe adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

Oseltamivir ring chemoprophylaxis, together with prompt identification and isolation of infected personnel, was effective in reducing the impact of outbreaks of 2009 H1N1 influenza in semiclosed settings.

Seroconversion and asymptomatic infections during oseltamivir prophylaxis against Influenza A H1N1 2009

Background

Anti-viral prophylaxis is used to prevent the transmission of influenza. We studied serological confirmation of 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) infections during oseltamivir prophylaxis and after cessation of prophylaxis.

Methods

Between 22 Jun and 16 Jul 09, we performed a cohort study in 3 outbreaks in the Singapore military where post-exposure oseltamivir ring chemoprophylaxis (75 mg daily for 10 days) was administered. The entire cohort was screened by RT-PCR (with HA gene primers) using nasopharyngeal swabs three times a week. Three blood samples were taken for haemagglutination inhibition testing - at the start of outbreak, 2 weeks after completion of 10 day oseltamivir prophylaxis, and 3 weeks after the pandemic's peak in Singapore. Questionnaires were also administered to collect clinical symptoms.

Results

237 personnel were included for analysis. The overall infection rate of 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) during the three outbreaks was 11.4% (27/237). This included 11 index cases and 16 personnel (7.1%) who developed four-fold or higher rise in antibody titres during oseltamivir prophylaxis. Of these 16 personnel, 8 (3.5%) were symptomatic while the remaining 8 personnel (3.5%) were asymptomatic and tested negative on PCR. Post-cessation of prophylaxis, an additional 23 (12.1%) seroconverted. There was no significant difference in mean fold-rise in GMT between those who seroconverted during and post-prophylaxis (11.3 vs 11.7, p = 0.888). No allergic, neuropsychiatric or other severe side-effects were noted.

Conclusions

Post-exposure oseltamivir prophylaxis reduced the rate of infection during outbreaks, and did not substantially increase subsequent infection rates upon cessation. Asymptomatic infections occur during prophylaxis, which may confer protection against future infection. Post-exposure prophylaxis is effective as a measure in mitigating pandemic influenza outbreaks.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009: Clinical and Laboratory Findings of the First Fifty Cases in Singapore

Introduction: Since the first imported case on 26 May 2009, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 has spread from travellers and has resulted in sustained community transmission. Singapore began with a strict containment policy where all suspected and confirmed cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 were admitted for testing. We describe here the clinical and laboratory characteristics of the first 50 adult cases with confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Materials and Methods: A review was conducted of medical notes of adult patients with confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 by polymerase chain reaction assay from combined nasal and throat swabs admitted to the Communicable Disease Centre, Tan Tock Seng Hospital. Results: From 26 May to 18 June 2009, 50 patients with a median age of 27 years old were admitted at a median of 3 days from illness onset. Half were male and all were travellers arriving in Singapore. Non-Singaporean citizens (38%) and other ethnic groups (40%) were over-represented. History of fever was reported in 90% and respiratory symptoms in 92%. Gastrointestinal symptoms were uncommon, present in 4% only. Temperatures on presentation of ≥38.0ºC, ≥37.8ºC and ≥37.5ºC were present in 48%, 56% and 76%, respectively. Only 46% of patients met the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US CDC) case definition of influenza-like illness (ILI). Clinical and laboratory findings were unremarkable for the majority. All cases were treated with oseltamivir and had uncomplicated recovery. Conclusion: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 had mild clinical and laboratory findings in immunocompetent patients. Use of the US CDC ILI criteria alone would have detected less than half of confirmed cases. Key words: Emerging infections, Influenza, Outbreak containment

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009: clinical and laboratory findings of the first fifty cases in Singapore

INTRODUCTION

Since the fi rst imported case on 26 May 2009, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 has spread from travellers and has resulted in sustained community transmission. Singapore began with a strict containment policy where all suspected and confirmed cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 were admitted for testing. We describe here the clinical and laboratory characteristics of the fi rst 50 adult cases with confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A review was conducted of medical notes of adult patients with confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 by polymerase chain reaction assay from combined nasal and throat swabs admitted to the Communicable Disease Centre, Tan Tock Seng Hospital.

RESULTS

From 26 May to 18 June 2009, 50 patients with a median age of 27 years old were admitted at a median of 3 days from illness onset. Half were male and all were travellers arriving in Singapore. Non-Singaporean citizens (38%) and other ethnic groups (40%) were over-represented. History of fever was reported in 90% and respiratory symptoms in 92%. Gastrointestinal symptoms were uncommon, present in 4% only. Temperatures on presentation of >or=38.0 degrees C, >or=37.8 degrees C and >or=37.5 degrees C were present in 48%, 56% and 76%, respectively. Only 46% of patients met the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US CDC) case definition of influenza-like illness (ILI). Clinical and laboratory findings were unremarkable for the majority. All cases were treated with oseltamivir and had uncomplicated recovery.

CONCLUSION

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 had mild clinical and laboratory findings in immunocompetent patients. Use of the US CDC ILI criteria alone would have detected less than half of confirmed cases.

New influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Singapore: the first ten adult imported cases

INTRODUCTION

Since late March 2009, a novel influenza H1N1 strain emerged in humans in Mexico and the United States. It has rapidly spread to many countries on different continents, prompting unprecedented activation of pandemic preparedness plans. Singapore has adopted a containment strategy with active screening of febrile travellers with respiratory symptoms from affected countries since April 27, 2009.

METHODS

All cases with new influenza A (H1N1) confirmed on polymerase chain reaction assay on combined nasal and throat swabs and who were admitted to the Communicable Disease Centre, were included in a prospective evaluation of clinical characteristics of new influenza A (H1N1).

RESULTS

From May 26 to June 3, 2009, there were ten patients with a mean age of 27.6 years, seven of whom were female. All but one travelled from the United States, six of whom travelled from New York; the last one travelled from the Philippines. Clinical illness developed within a mean of 1.4 days after arrival in Singapore, and presentation to the emergency department at a mean of 2.7 days from illness onset. Fever occurred in 90 percent, cough 70 percent, coryza 40 percent, sore throat and myalgia/arthralgia 30 percent; none had diarrhoea. The fever lasted a mean of 2.1 days. All were treated with oseltamivir. The clinical course was uncomplicated in all cases.

CONCLUSION

Clinical features of new influenza A (H1N1) appeared mild, and ran an uncomplicated course in immunocompetent patients.

A metapopulation modelling framework for gonorrhoea and other sexually transmitted infections in heterosexual populations

Gonorrhoea continues to be a public health problem in the UK, and is the second most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) after chlamydia. In the UK, gonorrhoea is disproportionately concentrated in epidemiologically distinct subpopulations, with much higher incidence rates in young people, some ethnic minorities and inner city subpopulations. The original model of STI transmission proposed by Hethcote and Yorke explained some of these features through the concept of the 'core group'. Since then, several authors have modified the original model approach to include multiple sexual activity classes, but found this modelling approach to be inadequate when applied to low-prevalence settings such as the UK. We present a metapopulation framework for modelling gonorrhoea and other STIs. The model proposes that the epidemiology of gonorrhoea is largely driven by subpopulations with higher than average concentrations of individuals with high sexual risk activity. We show how this conceptualization of gonococcal epidemiology overcomes key limitations associated with some of the prior efforts to model gonorrhoea. We also use the model to explain several epidemiological features of gonorrhoea, such as its asymmetric distribution across subpopulations, and the contextual risk experienced by members of at-risk subpopulations. Finally, we extend the model to explain the distribution of other STIs, using chlamydia as an example of a more ubiquitous bacterial STI.

Reproductive health services for refugees by refugees in Guinea I: family planning

Background

Comprehensive studies of family planning (FP) in refugee camps are relatively uncommon. This paper examines gender and age differences in family planning knowledge, attitudes, and practices among Sierra Leonean and Liberian refugees living in Guinea.

Methods

In 1999, a cross-sectional survey was conducted of 889 reproductive-age men and women refugees from 48 camps served by the refugee-organised Reproductive Health Group (RHG). Sampling was multi-stage with data collected for socio-demographics, family planning, sexual health, and antenatal care. Statistics were calculated for selected indicators.

Results

Women knew more about FP, although men's education reduced this difference. RHG facilitators were the primary source of reproductive health information for all respondents. However, more men then women obtained information from non-health sources, such as friends and media. Approval of FP was high, significantly higher in women than in men (90% vs. 70%). However, more than 40% reported not having discussed FP with their partner. Perceived service quality was an important determinant in choosing where to get contraceptives. Contraceptive use in the camps served by RHG was much higher than typical for either refugees' country of origin or the host country (17% vs. 3.9 and 4.1% respectively), but the risk of unwanted pregnancy remained considerable (69%).

Conclusion

This refugee self-help model appeared largely effective and could be considered for reproductive health needs in similar settings. Having any formal education appeared a major determinant of FP knowledge for men, while this was less noticeable for women. Thus, FP communication strategies for refugees should consider gender-specific messages and channels.

Twentieth Century Influenza Pandemics in Singapore

Introduction: Singapore was substantially affected by three 20th Century pandemics. This study describes the course of the pandemics, and the preventive measures adopted. Materials and Methods: We reviewed and researched a wide range of material including peer-reviewed journal articles, Ministry of Health reports, Straits Settlements reports and newspaper articles. Monthly mortality data were obtained from various official sources in Singapore. Results: The 1918 epidemic in Singapore occurred in 2 waves – June to July, and October to November – resulting in up to 3500 deaths. The 1957 epidemic occurred in May, and resulted in widespread morbidity, with 77,000 outpatient attendances in government clinics alone. The 1968 epidemic occurred in August and lasted a few weeks, with outpatient attendances increasing by more than 65%. The preventive measures instituted by the Singapore government during the pandemics included the closure of schools, promulgation of public health messages, setting up of influenza treatment centres, and screening at ports. Students, businessmen and healthcare workers were all severely affected by the pandemics. Conclusions: Tropical cities should be prepared in case of a future pandemic. Some of the preventive measures used in previous pandemics may be applicable during the next pandemic.

Twentieth century influenza pandemics in Singapore

INTRODUCTION

Singapore was substantially affected by three 20th Century pandemics. This study describes the course of the pandemics, and the preventive measures adopted.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We reviewed and researched a wide range of material including peer-reviewed journal articles, Ministry of Health reports, Straits Settlements reports and newspaper articles. Monthly mortality data were obtained from various official sources in Singapore.

RESULTS

The 1918 epidemic in Singapore occurred in 2 waves--June to July, and October to November--resulting in up to 3500 deaths. The 1957 epidemic occurred in May, and resulted in widespread morbidity, with 77,000 outpatient attendances in government clinics alone. The 1968 epidemic occurred in August and lasted a few weeks, with outpatient attendances increasing by more than 65%. The preventive measures instituted by the Singapore government during the pandemics included the closure of schools, promulgation of public health messages, setting up of influenza treatment centres, and screening at ports. Students, businessmen and healthcare workers were all severely affected by the pandemics.

CONCLUSIONS

Tropical cities should be prepared in case of a future pandemic. Some of the preventive measures used in previous pandemics may be applicable during the next pandemic.

Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing staff absenteeism during pandemic influenza

Timely and adequate treatment and prophylaxis may reduce absenteeism among healthcare workers during the peak of a pandemic.

We used a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) meta-population model, together with scenario, sensitivity, and simulation analyses, to determine stockpiling strategies for neuraminidase inhibitors that would minimize absenteeism among healthcare workers. A pandemic with a basic reproductive number (R₀) of 2.5 resulted in peak absenteeism of 10%. Treatment decreased peak absenteeism to 8%, while 8 weeks’ prophylaxis reduced it to 2%. For pandemics with higher R₀, peak absenteeism exceeded 20% occasionally and 6 weeks’ prophylaxis reduced peak absenteeism by 75%. Insufficient duration of prophylaxis increased peak absenteeism compared with treatment only. Earlier pandemic detection and initiation of prophylaxis may render shorter prophylaxis durations ineffective. Eight weeks’ prophylaxis substantially reduced peak absenteeism under a broad range of assumptions for severe pandemics (peak absenteeism >10%). Small investments in treatment and prophylaxis, if adequate and timely, can reduce absenteeism among essential staff.

Influenza pandemics in Singapore, a tropical, globally connected city

Tropical cities such as Singapore do not have well-defined influenza seasons but have not been spared from influenza pandemics. The 1918 epidemic in Singapore, which was then already a major global trading hub, occurred in 2 waves, June-July, and October-November, and resulted in > or = 2,870 deaths. The excess mortality rate was higher than that for industrialized nations in the Northern Hemisphere but lower than that for less industrialized countries in Asia and Africa. The 1957 epidemic occurred in May and resulted in widespread illness. The 1968 epidemic occurred in August and lasted a few weeks, again with widespread illness. Tropical cities may be affected early in a pandemic and have higher mortality rates. With the increase in travel and trade, a future pandemic may reach a globally connected city early and spread worldwide. Preparedness and surveillance plans must be developed to include the megacities of the tropical world.

Fatal dengue hemorrhagic fever in adults during a dengue epidemic in Singapore

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever has seen a significant re-emergence in Southeast Asia. Associated with the rise of dengue has been the increase in dengue-associated mortality. To better understand the predictors of mortality, we conducted a review of hospitalized adult dengue infections within our institution.

METHODS

This was a retrospective case-control study of dengue-associated deaths at a large tertiary care hospital.

RESULTS

In 2004, of 3186 cases of dengue fever (DF)/hemorrhagic dengue fever (DHF) admitted to our institution, there were 130 cases of DHF and seven dengue-associated deaths (case-fatality rate 5.4%). At least three of the seven fatal cases had serological evidence of primary dengue infection. All dengue-mortality cases had rapidly progressive clinical deterioration at an average of day 4 of fever with intensive care admission occurring on a mean of 5.6 days of fever. Adult respiratory distress syndrome, disseminated intravascular coagulopathy, and multi-organ failure were the most common causes of death despite early hospitalization, intravenous fluid, and blood-product support.

CONCLUSION

Dengue is associated with severe disease, and deaths do occur despite current supportive management. Fatal DHF/dengue shock syndrome (DSS) does occur in adults and in primary dengue infection. Better early predictors of disease severity and clinical interventions are needed.

Influenza and the pandemic threat

With the increasing concern of an imminent influenza pandemic, Singapore and many other countries have been developing preparedness plans. Influenza affects an estimated 20 percent of the population of Singapore annually, and local outbreaks can last for more than 12 weeks and occur at different periods of the year. The 1968 pandemic in Singapore had a clinical attack rate of about 20 percent and resulted in infections with fever that lasted up to five days. However, absenteeism from work due to seasonal influenza-like illnesses was estimated to be less than one day per person in Singapore. The next pandemic in Singapore is predicted to cause an average of 1,105 deaths and 3,338 hospitalisations, while a severe pandemic will cause more healthcare damage. Preventive strategies include national public health initiatives, vaccination, anti-viral therapy, and hygiene measures. To develop effective preparedness plans, it is important for healthcare workers to understand the disease's epidemiology, outcomes, and treatment and prevention strategies available.

Predictors of failed attendances in a multi-specialty outpatient centre using electronic databases

Background

Failure to keep outpatient medical appointments results in inefficiencies and costs. The objective of this study is to show the factors in an existing electronic database that affect failed appointments and to develop a predictive probability model to increase the effectiveness of interventions.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted on outpatient clinic attendances at Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore from 2000 to 2004. 22864 patients were randomly sampled for analysis. The outcome measure was failed outpatient appointments according to each patient's latest appointment.

Results

Failures comprised of 21% of all appointments and 39% when using the patients' latest appointment. Using odds ratios from the mutliple logistic regression analysis, age group (0.75 to 0.84 for groups above 40 years compared to below 20 years), race (1.48 for Malays, 1.61 for Indians compared to Chinese), days from scheduling to appointment (2.38 for more than 21 days compared to less than 7 days), previous failed appointments (1.79 for more than 60% failures and 4.38 for no previous appointments, compared with less than 20% failures), provision of cell phone number (0.10 for providing numbers compared to otherwise) and distance from hospital (1.14 for more than 14 km compared to less than 6 km) were significantly associated with failed appointments. The predicted probability model's diagnostic accuracy to predict failures is more than 80%.

Conclusion

A few key variables have shown to adequately account for and predict failed appointments using existing electronic databases. These can be used to develop integrative technological solutions in the outpatient clinic.

Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict and monitor the number of beds occupied during a SARS outbreak in a tertiary hospital in Singapore

Background

The main objective of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to make real-time predictions on the number of beds occupied in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, during the recent SARS outbreak.

Methods

This is a retrospective study design. Hospital admission and occupancy data for isolation beds was collected from Tan Tock Seng hospital for the period 14^th March 2003 to 31^st May 2003. The main outcome measure was daily number of isolation beds occupied by SARS patients. Among the covariates considered were daily number of people screened, daily number of people admitted (including observation, suspect and probable cases) and days from the most recent significant event discovery. We utilized the following strategy for the analysis. Firstly, we split the outbreak data into two. Data from 14^th March to 21^st April 2003 was used for model development. We used structural ARIMA models in an attempt to model the number of beds occupied. Estimation is via the maximum likelihood method using the Kalman filter. For the ARIMA model parameters, we considered the simplest parsimonious lowest order model.

Results

We found that the ARIMA (1,0,3) model was able to describe and predict the number of beds occupied during the SARS outbreak well. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the training set and validation set were 5.7% and 8.6% respectively, which we found was reasonable for use in the hospital setting. Furthermore, the model also provided three-day forecasts of the number of beds required. Total number of admissions and probable cases admitted on the previous day were also found to be independent prognostic factors of bed occupancy.

Conclusion

ARIMA models provide useful tools for administrators and clinicians in planning for real-time bed capacity during an outbreak of an infectious disease such as SARS. The model could well be used in planning for bed-capacity during outbreaks of other infectious diseases as well.

Surveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in the post-outbreak period

INTRODUCTION

This retrospective one-month survey evaluated the practicality of post-severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) surveillance recommendations in previously SARS-affected countries, namely Singapore. These included staff medical sick leave for febrile illness, inpatient fevers, inpatient pneumonia, atypical pneumonia, febrile illnesses with significant travel history and sudden unexplained deaths from pneumonia/ adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

METHODS

Surveillance data on medical sick leave of staff, all inpatient fevers, all febrile (temperature greater than or equal to 38 degrees Celsius) inpatient pneumonia, including atypical pneumonia, and deaths from pneumonia were collected from sick leave reports, ward reports, isolation room rounds and mortuary reports from 1 to 28 September 2003.

RESULTS

Baseline results show 167 (1.4/1000 staff-days) observed in staff sick leave for febrile illnesses, and 1798 (71.3/1000 bed-days) observed for inpatient fever. There were 40, 31 and 12 instances, respectively, of staff having temperatures of high fever (greater than or equal to 38 degrees Celsius), prolonged sick leave (3 days or more), and repeated sick leave (within 7 days) for febrile illnesses. An average of 4.6 wards a day potentially fulfilled the World Health Organisation SARS alert criteria. Of 27 cases with fever, pneumonia and a total white count of less than 10,000 cells per cubic mm as per Ministry of Health, Singapore criteria for the diagnosis of atypical pneumonia, only five were identified by clinicians.

CONCLUSION

Surveillance is time-consuming and current recommendations are not specific enough to be used practically. Surveillance indicators for inpatients must overcome a high degree of background noise.

Epidemiological, clinical and laboratory characteristics of 19 serologically confirmed rickettsial disease in Singapore

AIM

To identify epidemiological, clinical and laboratory features of serologically-proven typhus in the local setting.

METHOD & RESULTS

Retrospective study looking at rickettsial serologies done over a six-month period and collection of the epidemological, clinical, laboratory and treatment response data from the case notes of the patients with an ordered rickettsial serology. Twenty of the 35 cases had a positive serology. Of these 20 patients, 18 were already clinically diagnosed as having murine typhus. All except one were males and all were migrant workers. Majority of the patients were construction workers staying in containers where rats abound. The most consistent clinical features were high fever (100%) for a median period of seven days, headache (94%) and cough (47%). The white cell count was usually normal (74%) but thrombocytopenia was common (68%). Transaminitis was also common (90%) with the AST component higher than the ALT in half of the cases. Response to doxycycline therapy was rapid and most (88%) were afebrile by 72 hours.

CONCLUSION

Typhus (notably murine type) can be confidently diagnosed from consistent clinical features supported by epidemiological and laboratory clues. Early recognition with the prompt treatment response will result in shorter hospital stay with decreased cost. Serological testing may only prove useful in difficult situations when the clinical diagnosis is less clear.

Flexor tendon suture methods: a quantitative analysis of suture material within the repair site

This study compared the cross-sectional area and volume occupied by suture material at the repair site in three common methods of flexor tendon repair. A total of 51 human cadaveric tendons were studied. Zone II flexor digitorum profundus tendon lacerations were created and then repaired using the techniques described by Kessler, Tajima, and Savage. Quantitative cross-sectional area and volumetric measurements of suture material within each repair site were determined using a digital image analysis system. The Tajima repair occupied 27% of the tendon area at the repair site, while the Savage and Kessler repairs occupied 18% and 2%, respectively.

Hyperlipidaemia during normal pregnancy, parturition and lactation

Excessive accumulation of one or more of the major lipids in plasma can produce a marked increase in the risk of coronary heart diseases and other vascular complications. During and after pregnancy, changes in the levels of total cholesterol, triglyceride, low density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and high density lipoprotein-cholesterol have been described, but the amount of change varies from study to study. Therefore, the present study investigated changes in lipids and lipoproteins throughout the pregnancy and puerperium. We also investigated for the factors which may affect the plasma lipids during pregnancy. Concentrations of cholesterol and triglyceride of total plasma and lipoproteins were determined in 42 pregnant women throughout their pregnancy and puerperium together with a control group of 42 non-pregnant women. Compared to the control group, concentrations of cholesterol and triglyceride of total plasma and lipoproteins increased significantly during the second trimester and reached maximum in the third trimester. Concentrations of both, cholesterol and triglyceride, decreased significantly during post-partum. There was, however, a strikingly more rapid fall of plasma triglyceride and cholesterol in those mothers who breast-fed their infants compared with that in those in whom lactation was never established. In the majority of subjects, cholesterol and triglycerides remained significantly high until the fourth week of post-partum. The magnitude of the plasma cholesterol increment appeared in part to be related to that of plasma triglycerides, but these increments appeared to be independent of age, weight gain, numbers of previous pregnancies and sex of the foetus. This study concludes that hyperlipidaemia is a common finding during pregnancy and during post-partum. The concentrations of both cholesterol and triglycerides remain significantly higher in bottle-feeding than in breast-feeding mothers.

Is it important to secure the horns during lateral meniscal transplantation? A cadaveric study

The purpose of this investigation was to determine if secure attachment of the horns of the lateral meniscus during transplantation affects the load-bearing function of the meniscus. Six knee joints were loaded in compression (310 N) and the interarticular contact pressure in the joint measured using pressure-sensitive film inserted into the joint. Each knee was tested first with the original intact meniscus and then after each of the following surgical procedures involving the original lateral meniscus: (1) total meniscectomy; (2) meniscal transplantation with a tibial bone bridge; (3) meniscal transplantation with neither horn secured; (4) meniscal transplantation with the anterior horn secured; (5) meniscal transplantation with the posterior horn secured; and (6) meniscal transplantation with both horns secured. The results are as follows. (1) The intact joint gave the largest contact area and the smallest peak contact pressure. The joint with the total meniscectomy gave the smallest contact area and the largest peak contact pressure. (2) A meniscal transplantation with either a tibial bony bridge or with both horns secured gave results similar to those for the intact joint. (3) A meniscal transplantation with only one horn secured gave results somewhere in between those for the intact joint and those for the joint without a meniscus. A meniscal transplantation with neither horn secured gave results similar to those for a joint without a meniscus.

1995 Volvo Award in basic sciences. The use of an osteoinductive growth factor for lumbar spinal fusion. Part I: Biology of spinal fusion

STUDY DESIGN

The histology of lumbar intertransverse process spinal fusion was studied in an experimental model in rabbits.

OBJECTIVES

To qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the sequential histology of spinal fusion using a previously validated animal model.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Few previous studies have described the sequential histology during the posterolateral spinal fusion healing process using autogenous bone, and a basic understanding of the biology of this repair process is lacking.

METHODS

Fourteen adult New Zealand white rabbits underwent single-level posterolateral lumbar intertransverse process arthrodesis with autogenous iliac bone graft. Animals were killed 1-10 weeks after surgery, and the fusion masses were analyzed histologically and quantitated using a semiautomated image analysis system.

RESULTS

Three distinct phases of healing were identified (inflammatory, reparative, and remodeling) and occurred in sequence but in a delayed fashion in the central zone of the fusion mass compared with the outer transverse process zones. Membraneous bone formation, evident first at the ends of the fusion eminating from the decorticated transverse processes, was the predominant mechanism of healing. The central zone was somewhat different in that there was a period of endochondral bone formation during weeks 3 and 4 in this zone where cartilage formed and was converted to bone. Remodeling in the central zone had equilibrated with the transverse process zones by 10 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

Lumbar intertransverse process spinal fusion is a complex process from a spatial and temporal standpoint. When autogenous bone is used as the graft material, this process critically depends on a variety of factors from the decorticated host bone and exposed marrow. The persistence of a central cartilage zone may be related to some types of nonunions and deserves future investigation. This enhanced understanding of the biology of spinal fusion with autogenous bone graft will provide a foundation for optimizing the use of osteoinductive bone growth factors in this healing process.