[Forecasting models to guide intensive care COVID-19 capacities in Germany]

BACKGROUND

Time-series forecasting models play a central role in guiding intensive care coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) bed capacity in a pandemic. A key predictor of future intensive care unit (ICU) COVID-19 bed occupancy is the number of new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in the general population, which in turn is highly associated with week-to-week variability, reporting delays, regional differences, number of unknown cases, time-dependent infection rates, vaccinations, SARS-CoV‑2 virus variants, and nonpharmaceutical containment measures. Furthermore, current and also future COVID ICU occupancy is significantly influenced by ICU discharge and mortality rates.

METHODS

Both the number of new SARS-CoV‑2 infections in the general population and intensive care COVID-19 bed occupancy rates are recorded in Germany. These data are statistically analyzed on a daily basis using epidemic SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infection, recovered) models using ordinary differential equations and multiple regression models.

RESULTS

Forecast results of the immediate trend (20-day forecast) of ICU occupancy by COVID-19 patients are made available to decision makers at various levels throughout the country.

CONCLUSION

The forecasts are compared with the development of available ICU bed capacities in order to identify capacity limitations at an early stage and to enable short-term solutions to be made, such as supraregional transfers.

A Federated and Distributed Data Management Infrastructure to Enable Public Health Surveillance from Intensive Care Unit Data

The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) monitors the actual number of COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care from aggregated data reported by hospitals in Germany. So far, there is no infrastructure to make use of individual patient-level data from intensive care units for public health surveillance. Adopting concepts and components of the already established AKTIN Emergency Department Data registry, we implemented the prototype of a federated and distributed research infrastructure giving the RKI access to patient-level intensive care data.

Cost-savings and potential cost-savings through the distribution of generic antiretroviral drugs within the statutory health insurance market of Germany between January 2017 and June 2019

Abstract

Background

Recent patent losses for antiretroviral drugs (ARV) have led to the debate of cost-saving through the replacement of patented drugs with generic drugs. The split of recommended single-tablet regimens (STR) into their single substance partners is one of the considerations mentioned in said debate. Particularly, generic tenofovir disoproxil/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) is expected to hold untapped cost-saving potential, which may curb increasing overall expenditures for combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) within the statutory health insurance (SHI) of Germany.

Methods

Data of ARV reimbursed by the SHI were used to describe the trends of defined daily doses (DDD) as well as the revenue within the German ARV market. They were also used to determine the cost-savings of moving to generic drugs. The time period observed was between January 2017 and June 2019. The potential cost-savings were determined with following assumption in mind: the maximum possible use of generic ARV, including 1) the split of STR and replacing all substance partners with generic ones, and 2) replacing patented tenofovir alafenamide/emtricitabine (TAF/FTC) with generic TDF/FTC.

Results

Throughout the observation period, the DDD of generic ARV increased nearly five-fold while their revenue increased more than four-fold. Total cost-saving showed a sharp increase over the same period, with generic TDF/FTC accounting for a share of around 70%. The largest potential cost-saving could have been achieved through replacing patented TAF/FTC with generic TDF/FTC, peaking at nearly 10% of total revenue, but showing decreasing trends in general.

Conclusion

The progressive distribution of generic ARV ensured increasing cost-savings_, but consequently curbed the potential cost-savings. Unique price reductions of generic TDF/FTC have played a pivotal role for these effects. In any case, substituting with generic ARV should not fail to adhere to the treatment guidelines and continue to consider the medical requirements for the treatment.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-021-07390-4.

Oxygen transport and cardiovascular effects of resuscitation from severe hemorrhagic shock using hemoglobin solutions

OBJECTIVE

To test the short-term efficacy of three hemoglobin solutions in restoring cardiac output, intravascular pressures, oxygen transport (DO2), and oxygen consumption (VO2) after resuscitation from severe hemorrhagic shock.

DESIGN

Prospective study.

SETTING

Research laboratory.

SUBJECTS

Beagle dogs.

INTERVENTIONS

After anesthesia and instrumentation, hemorrhagic shock was induced for 2 hrs by blood withdrawal to maintain systolic blood pressure at 50 mm Hg. Resuscitation then occurred with one of four different resuscitation fluids. One group of dogs was not resuscitated. Survival rate was monitored for 8 days.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

In 33 beagle dogs, cardiovascular variables (DO2 and VO2) were compared after resuscitation with 8% stroma-free hemoglobin, 4% or 8% pyridoxalated-hemoglobin-polyoxyethylene conjugate (PHP44 and PHP88, respectively), or autologous whole blood. The dogs were anesthetized, paralyzed, mechanically ventilated (FIO2 of 0.21), and instrumented with arterial and pulmonary artery catheters. An average of 63% of estimated blood volume was removed to maintain systolic blood pressure at 50 mm Hg for 2 hrs. The dogs then were either not resuscitated (n = 4) or resuscitated with 8% stroma-free hemoglobin (n = 7), PHP44 (n = 6), PHP88 (n = 8), or whole blood (n = 8), with a volume equivalent to the withdrawn blood. Cardiovascular variables, DO2, VO2, oxygen extraction ratios, and blood concentrations of lactic acid and catecholamines were determined before, and for < or = 6 hrs after, resuscitation from hemorrhagic shock. Blood smears were microscopically examined. In addition, the survival rate was monitored for 8 days after resuscitation. By 2 hrs of hemorrhagic shock, there was a large decrease in DO2 (p < .05) and an increase in oxygen extraction ratio from 0.27 to 0.70 (p < .05). There was a 3.5-fold increase in lactate concentrations and a 25-fold increase in catecholamine concentrations as compared with preshock values. All dogs not resuscitated died within 1.75 hrs after 2 hrs of shock. After resuscitation with whole blood, all cardiovascular and oxygen transport variables returned to approximately prehemorrhage values and remained so throughout the measurement period. After resuscitation with any hemoglobin solution, DO2 returned transiently to control values. However, recovery of DO2 was short-lived in all hemoglobin solution groups, and, by 4 hrs postresuscitation in all groups, DO2 was less than the DO2 of the dogs receiving whole blood (p < .05). These changes were associated with decreases in total hemoglobin concentrations compared with the values immediately before resuscitation (p < .05). In addition, with resuscitation using the PHP solutions, blood smears demonstrated aggregation of red blood cells and platelets. On day 8 after hemorrhagic shock, the survival rate was 100% for whole blood and PHP44, 86% for 8% stroma-free hemoglobin, and 33% for PHP88.

CONCLUSIONS

Resuscitation from severe hemorrhagic shock with 8% stroma-free hemoglobin, PHP44, or PHP88 is equally effective in restoring cardiac index and vascular pressures as using whole blood. However, resuscitation with the three hemoglobin solutions only transiently restored DO2 after hemorrhagic shock. The subsequent reduction of DO2 compared with the DO2 value using whole blood was due mostly to hemodilution. With the two PHP solutions, formation of red blood cell aggregates probably resulted in sequestration of red cell mass and additional loss of oxygen carrying capacity.