Insights from Adding Transportation Sector Detail into an Economy-Wide Model: The Case of the ADAGE CGE Model

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models provide valuable insights into economy-wide impacts of anticipated future structural changes in the transportation sector, yet few CGE models offer detailed transportation representations. We use an enhanced Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE) CGE model to incorporate disaggregated transportation modes and technologies in on-road passenger and freight transportation. We assess the impacts of these inclusions on U.S. transportation patterns, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Simulating illustrative global oil price cases with and without transportation detail, we find subsector mode disaggregation and technology additions in a CGE model significantly alter the impacts of oil prices on global trade and freight patterns, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that: (1) alternative technologies are essential for capturing transportation sector impacts, (2) electrification may reduce emissions with electricity decarbonization, and (3) higher oil prices may hasten electrification.

Simpler is better: Predicting consumer vehicle purchases in the short run

When agencies such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) establish future greenhouse gas emissions standards for new vehicles, forecasting future vehicle purchases due to changes in fuel economy and prices provides insight into regulatory impacts. We compare predictions from a nested logit model independently developed for US EPA to a simple model where past market share predicts future market share using data from model years 2008, 2010, and 2016. The simple model outperforms the nested logit model for all goodness-of-prediction measures for both prediction years. Including changes in vehicle price and fuel economy increases bias in forecasted market shares. This bias suggests price increases are correlated with unobserved increases in vehicle quality, changes in preferences, or brand-specific changes in market size but not cost pass-through. For 2010, past shares predict better than a nested logit model despite a major shock, the economic disruption caused by the Great Recession. Observed share changes during this turbulent period may offer upper bounds for policy changes in other contexts: the largest observed change in market share across the two horizons is 6.6% for manufacturers in 2016 and 3.4% for an individual vehicle in 2010.

Workgroup report: Implementing a national occupational reproductive research agenda--decade one and beyond

The initial goal of occupational reproductive health research is to effectively study the many toxicants, physical agents, and biomechanical and psychosocial stressors that may constitute reproductive hazards in the workplace. Although the main objective of occupational reproductive researchers and clinicians is to prevent recognized adverse reproductive outcomes, research has expanded to include a broader spectrum of chronic health outcomes potentially affected by reproductive toxicants. To aid in achieving these goals, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, along with its university, federal, industry, and labor colleagues, formed the National Occupational Research Agenda (NORA) in 1996. NORA resulted in 21 research teams, including the Reproductive Health Research Team (RHRT). In this report, we describe progress made in the last decade by the RHRT and by others in this field, including prioritizing reproductive toxicants for further study; facilitating collaboration among epidemiologists, biologists, and toxicologists; promoting quality exposure assessment in field studies and surveillance; and encouraging the design and conduct of priority occupational reproductive studies. We also describe new tools for screening reproductive toxicants and for analyzing mode of action. We recommend considering outcomes such as menopause and latent adverse effects for further study, as well as including exposures such as shift work and nanomaterials. We describe a broad domain of scholarship activities where a cohesive system of organized and aligned work activities integrates 10 years of team efforts and provides guidance for future research.

Role of thyroid hormones in human and laboratory animal reproductive health

The highly conserved nature of the thyroid gland and the thyroid system among mammalian species suggests it is critical to species survival. Studies show the thyroid system plays a critical role in the development of several organ systems, including the reproductive tract. Despite its highly conserved nature, the thyroid system can have widely different effects on reproduction and reproductive tract development in different species. The present review focuses on assessing the role of thyroid hormones in human reproduction and reproductive tract development and comparing it to the role of thyroid hormones in laboratory animal reproduction and reproductive tract development. The review also assesses the effects of thyroid dysfunction on reproductive tract development and function in humans and laboratory animals. Consideration of such information is important in designing, conducting, and interpreting studies to assess the potential effects of thyroid toxicants on reproduction and development.

NTP-CERHR Expert Panel report on the reproductive and developmental toxicity of methanol

The National Toxicology Program (NTP) and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) established the NTP Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction (CERHR) in June 1998. The purpose of the Center is to provide timely, unbiased, scientifically sound evaluations of human and experimental evidence for adverse effects on reproduction, including development, caused by agents to which humans may be exposed. Methanol was selected for evaluation by the CERHR based on high production volume, extent of human exposure, and published evidence of reproductive or developmental toxicity. Methanol is used in chemical syntheses and as an industrial solvent. It is a natural component of the human diet and is found in consumer products such as paints, antifreeze, cleaning solutions, and adhesives. It is used in race car fuels and there is potential for expanded use as an automobile fuel. This evaluation is the result of a 10-month effort by a 12-member panel of government and non-government scientists that culminated in a public Expert Panel meeting. This report has been reviewed by CERHR staff scientists, and by members of the Methanol Expert Panel. Copies have been provided to the CERHR Core Committee, which is made up of representatives of NTP-participating agencies. This report is a product of the Expert Panel and is intended to (1). interpret the strength of scientific evidence that a given exposure or exposure circumstance may pose a hazard to reproduction and the health and welfare of children; (2). provide objective and scientifically thorough assessments of the scientific evidence that adverse reproductive/development health effects are associated with exposure to specific chemicals or classes of chemicals, including descriptions of any uncertainties that would diminish confidence in assessment of risks; and (3). identify knowledge gaps to help establish research and testing priorities. The expert panel report becomes a central part of the subsequent NTP-CERHR Monograph. Each monograph includes the NTP Brief on the chemical under evaluation, the expert panel report, and all public comments on the expert panel report. The NTP Brief contains the NTP's conclusions on the potential for exposure to result in adverse effects on human development and reproduction. It is based on the expert panel report, public comments on the report, and relevant data published after the expert panel report was completed. NTP-CERHR Monographs are publicly available and are transmitted to appropriate health and regulatory agencies.

An occupational reproductive research agenda for the third millennium

There is a significant public health concern about the potential effects of occupational exposure to toxic substances on reproductive outcomes. Several toxicants with reported reproductive and developmental effects are still in regular commercial or therapeutic use and thus present potential exposure to workers. Examples of these include heavy metals, organic solvents, pesticides and herbicides, and sterilants, anesthetic gases, and anticancer drugs used in health care. Many other substances are suspected of producing reproductive or developmental toxicity but lack sufficient data. Progress has been limited in identifying hazards and quantifying their potencies and in separating the contribution of these hazards from other etiologic factors. Identifying the causative agents, mechanisms by which they act, and any potential target populations, present the opportunity to intervene and protect the reproductive health of workers. The pace of laboratory studies to identify hazards and to underpin the biologic plausibility of effects in humans has not matched the pace at which new chemicals are introduced into commerce. Though many research challenges exist today, recent technologic and methodologic advances have been made that allow researchers to overcome some of these obstacles. The objective of this article is to recommend future directions in occupational reproductive health research. By bridging interdisciplinary gaps, the scientific community can work together to improve health and reduce adverse outcomes.

Generation and characterization of heritable reciprocal translocations in mice

Reciprocal translocations have provided crucial tools for the localization of genes associated with a variety of human cancers and hereditary diseases. Although heritable translocations are relatively rare in humans, they can be easily induced in mice through exposure of male germ cells at specific spermatogenic stages to different types of radiation and chemicals. Mutagenesis schemes that produce translocations at high frequencies in the progeny of treated males are summarized, and the use of these valuable mutations for analyzing developmental consequences of partial aneuploidy, for identification of mutant genes, and for other purposes is reviewed. Preliminary studies of a large collection of translocation mutants, including several stocks that display dominantly or recessively inherited phenotypes caused by the disruption of critical genes are described. These combined studies demonstrate that several mutagenesis protocols can be used to generate easily mapped, novel mouse mutations with high efficiency and highlight the unique value of reciprocal translocations as tools for gaining access to the biological functions of mammalian genes.

Plasma and BAL cytokine response to corticosteroid rescue treatment in late ARDS

BACKGROUND

In late ARDS, a persistent and exaggerated inflammatory response causes recurrent injury to the alveolocapillary barrier and amplification of intra-alveolar fibroproliferation. When ARDS patients fail to improve, corticosteroid (CS) rescue treatment frequently leads to rapid improvements in lung function. We tested the hypothesis that response to CS treatment is related to suppressing the inflammatory response by comparing changes in lung function to inflammatory cytokine (IC) levels in the plasma and BAL.

METHODS

Blood samples were obtained on days 1, 3, 5, and 7 of ARDS, and on days -5, -3, 0 (initiation of treatment), +3, +5, +7, +10, and +14 of CS treatment. Bilateral BAL was obtained on day 1 of ARDS, before administration of CS treatment, and at weekly intervals. We analyzed changes in IC levels during CS treatment in relation to improvements in lung injury score (LIS), indices of endothelial permeability, and final outcome. We also analyzed data to identify timing to a significant reduction in plasma IC levels and predictors of response.

RESULTS

Nine patients entered the study. CS treatment was initiated 15 +/- 9 days into ARDS. Improvement in LIS (> 1-point reduction) was rapid (< 7 days) in five, delayed (< 14 days) in two, and absent in two. Baseline plasma and BAL IC levels in study patients were similar to a previously reported comparison group of 12 ARDS nonsurvivors. No significant changes in plasma and BAL IC levels were observed before CS administration. Following initiation of CS treatment, significant reductions in plasma tumor necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin 6 (IL-6) levels were seen by day 7 in both rapid and delayed responders (p = 0.03). IL-1 beta was significantly reduced by day 5 (p = 0.04) in rapid responders and by day 10 (p = 0.03) in delayed responders. In responders, improvement in LIS and BAL albumin paralleled reduction in plasma and BAL IC levels. At initiation of treatment, rapid responders had significantly lower tumor necrosis factor-alpha and IL-6 levels. Nonresponders had a significantly higher plasma IL-6 level on days 1 to 3 of ARDS (p = 0.004) and lower ratio of arteriolar oxygen tension to inspired oxygen concentration at initiation of treatment (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with late ARDS and a low likelihood of survival, prolonged corticosteroid rescue treatment was associated with a reduction in plasma and BAL IC levels and parallel improvements in indices of endothelial permeability and LIS.

Predicting chemical carcinogenesis in rodents

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Design and implementation of a collaborative study of the mutagenicity of complex mixtures in Salmonella typhimurium

In 1987, the International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS) in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) and the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (U.S. NIST) initiated an international collaborative study of the mutagenicity of complex environmental mixtures in the Ames Salmonella typhimurium mutation assay. The objectives of this study were: (1) to estimate the inter- and intra-laboratory variability associated with the extraction of mixtures for bioassay, (2) to estimate the inter- and intra-laboratory variability associated with the Salmonella typhimurium bioassay when applied to complex mixtures, and (3) to determine whether standard reference complex mixtures would be useful in mutagenicity studies and to evaluate whether reference or certified mutagenicity values determined from this collaborative study should be reported. The complex mixtures used in this study were selected from standard reference materials (SRMs) which had previously been issued by the U.S. NIST as SRM 1597 (coal tar), SRM 1649 (diesel particulate matter) and SRM 1650 (urban air particulate matter) with certified values for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. These SRM complex mixtures are available to scientists as reference standards for analytical chemistry research and are under consideration as SRMs for mutagenicity studies of complex environmental mixtures. This paper briefly describes the final study design, protocol, selection of the complex mixtures, and implementation of this international study.

A report of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Gene-Tox Program. Evaluation of mutagenicity assays for purposes of genetic risk assessment

For the vast majority of chemicals, mammalian germ-line (MG) mutation data do not exist. The question was examined of how best to utilize results of non-MG genotoxicity assays that are included in the Gene-Tox data base to provide information of the likelihood that genetic damage might be induced in and transmitted by the reproductive cells of exposed human beings. Two approaches were used to assess the relative value of different assays for genetic hazard identification. (1) Test results were weighted according to parameters by which conditions of an assay resemble those encountered in the potential induction of transmitted genetic damage in mammals. For this purpose, 35 assays were grouped into 16 categories that were assigned weights ranging from 1 to 15; there were 2367 chemicals in the data base. This system was evaluated by comparing the sum of weighted test results for each chemical with the outcome of MG-standard (MGst) tests where such had been reported. (MGst tests used were the specific-locus and heritable-translocation assays [SLT and HTT] for gene mutations and chromosome aberrations, respectively.) The weighting system produced a few false positives with respect to the MGst results. It produced no false negatives, but the available evidence is limited by the circumstance that MGst test have evidently been preferentially performed with chemicals that had already been shown to be positive in several other assays. (2) Findings from each MGst test were compared with those from each of the other assays in turn, provided that at least 10 chemicals had been tested in both of the assays. There were 11 such comparisons involving the SLT, and 14 such comparisons involving the HTT. The observed concordance was above random expectation in several comparisons, particularly those involving certain mammalian in vivo tests, but in only one case (HTT vs. unscheduled DNA synthesis in the testis) did the degree of elevation approach statistical significance.

Stimulus change as a factor in response maintenance with free food available

Rats bar pressed for food on a reinforcement schedule in which every response was reinforced, even though a dish of pellets was present. Initially, auditory and visual stimuli accompanied response-produced food presentation. With stimulus feedback as an added consequence of bar pressing, responding was maintained in the presence of free food; without stimulus feedback, responding decreased to a low level. Auditory feedback maintained slightly more responding than did visual feedback, and both together maintained more responding than did either separately. Almost no responding occurred when the only consequence of bar pressing was stimulus feedback. The data indicated conditioned and sensory reinforcement effects of response-produced stimulus feedback.