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Kalish H, Klumpp-Thomas C, Hunsberger S, Baus HA, Fay MP, Siripong N, Wang J, Hicks J, Mehalko J, Travers J, Drew M, Pauly K, Spathies J, Ngo T, Adusei KM, Karkanitsa M, Croker JA, Li Y, Graubard BI, Czajkowski L, Belliveau O, Chairez C, Snead KR, Frank P, Shunmugavel A, Han A, Giurgea LT, Rosas LA, Bean R, Athota R, Cervantes-Medina A, Gouzoulis M, Heffelfinger B, Valenti S, Caldararo R, Kolberg MM, Kelly A, Simon R, Shafiq S, Wall V, Reed S, Ford EW, Lokwani R, Denson JP, Messing S, Michael SG, Gillette W, Kimberly RP, Reis SE, Hall MD, Esposito D, Memoli MJ, Sadtler K. Undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Sci Transl Med 2021; 13:eabh3826. [PMID: 34158410 PMCID: PMC8432952 DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.abh3826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2021] [Accepted: 06/16/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates in the United States and elsewhere. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in 9089 adults in the United States who had not been diagnosed previously with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflected the U.S. population (n = 27,716) were selected by quota sampling from 462,949 volunteers. Enrolled participants (n = 11,382) provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and dried blood samples. Survey questions coincident with the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey, a large probability-based national survey, were used to adjust for selection bias. Most blood samples (88.7%) were collected between 10 May and 31 July 2020 and were processed using ELISA to measure seropositivity (IgG and IgM antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the spike protein receptor binding domain). The overall weighted undiagnosed seropositivity estimate was 4.6% (95% CI, 2.6 to 6.5%), with race, age, sex, ethnicity, and urban/rural subgroup estimates ranging from 1.1% to 14.2%. The highest seropositivity estimates were in African American participants; younger, female, and Hispanic participants; and residents of urban centers. These data indicate that there were 4.8 undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infections for every diagnosed case of COVID-19, and an estimated 16.8 million infections were undiagnosed by mid-July 2020 in the United States.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather Kalish
- Trans-NIH Shared Resource on Biomedical Engineering and Physical Science, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Carleen Klumpp-Thomas
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
| | - Sally Hunsberger
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Holly Ann Baus
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Michael P Fay
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Nalyn Siripong
- Clinical and Translational Science Institute, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
| | - Jing Wang
- Clinical Monitoring Research Program Directorate, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD 21702, USA
| | - Jennifer Hicks
- Trans-NIH Shared Resource on Biomedical Engineering and Physical Science, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Jennifer Mehalko
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD 21702, USA
| | - Jameson Travers
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
| | - Matthew Drew
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD 21702, USA
| | - Kyle Pauly
- Trans-NIH Shared Resource on Biomedical Engineering and Physical Science, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Jacquelyn Spathies
- Trans-NIH Shared Resource on Biomedical Engineering and Physical Science, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Tran Ngo
- Section on Immuno-Engineering, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Kenneth M Adusei
- Section on Immuno-Engineering, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Maria Karkanitsa
- Section on Immuno-Engineering, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Jennifer A Croker
- Center for Clinical and Translational Science, School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL 35294, USA
| | - Yan Li
- Joint Program in Survey Methodology, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Barry I Graubard
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Biostatistics Branch, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Lindsay Czajkowski
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Olivia Belliveau
- Laboratory of Immunoregulation, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Cheryl Chairez
- Laboratory of Immunoregulation, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Kelly R Snead
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD 21702, USA
| | - Peter Frank
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD 21702, USA
| | - Anandakumar Shunmugavel
- Section on Immuno-Engineering, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Alison Han
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Luca T Giurgea
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Luz Angela Rosas
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Rachel Bean
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Rani Athota
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Adriana Cervantes-Medina
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Monica Gouzoulis
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Brittany Heffelfinger
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Shannon Valenti
- Clinical and Translational Science Institute, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
| | - Rocco Caldararo
- Clinical Research Directorate, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Leidos Biomedical Research Inc., Frederick, MD 21702, USA
| | - Michelle M Kolberg
- Division of Clinical Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Andrew Kelly
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
| | - Reid Simon
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
| | - Saifullah Shafiq
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
| | - Vanessa Wall
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD 21702, USA
| | - Susan Reed
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - Eric W Ford
- Center for Clinical and Translational Science, School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL 35294, USA
| | - Ravi Lokwani
- Section on Immuno-Engineering, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA
| | - John-Paul Denson
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD 21702, USA
| | - Simon Messing
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD 21702, USA
| | - Sam G Michael
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
| | - William Gillette
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD 21702, USA
| | - Robert P Kimberly
- Center for Clinical and Translational Science, School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL 35294, USA
| | - Steven E Reis
- Clinical and Translational Science Institute, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
| | - Matthew D Hall
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
| | - Dominic Esposito
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD 21702, USA
| | - Matthew J Memoli
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA.
| | - Kaitlyn Sadtler
- Section on Immuno-Engineering, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA.
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Kalish H, Klumpp-Thomas C, Hunsberger S, Baus HA, Fay MP, Siripong N, Wang J, Hicks J, Mehalko J, Travers J, Drew M, Pauly K, Spathies J, Ngo T, Adusei KM, Karkanitsa M, Croker JA, Li Y, Graubard BI, Czajkowski L, Belliveau O, Chairez C, Snead K, Frank P, Shunmugavel A, Han A, Giurgea LT, Rosas LA, Bean R, Athota R, Cervantes-Medina A, Gouzoulis M, Heffelfinger B, Valenti S, Caldararo R, Kolberg MM, Kelly A, Simon R, Shafiq S, Wall V, Reed S, Ford EW, Lokwani R, Denson JP, Messing S, Michael SG, Gillette W, Kimberly RP, Reis SE, Hall MD, Esposito D, Memoli MJ, Sadtler K. Mapping a Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity in the United States. medRxiv 2021:2021.01.27.21250570. [PMID: 33532807 PMCID: PMC7852277 DOI: 10.1101/2021.01.27.21250570] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/20/2023]
Abstract
Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in US adults who have not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflect the US population (n = 11,382) and who had not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19 were selected by quota sampling from 241,424 volunteers (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04334954). Enrolled participants provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and 9,028 blood samples. The majority (88.7%) of samples were collected between May 10th and July 31st, 2020. Samples were analyzed via ELISA for anti-Spike and anti-RBD antibodies. Estimation of seroprevalence was performed by using a weighted analysis to reflect the US population. We detected an undiagnosed seropositivity rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 2.6 - 6.5%). There was distinct regional variability, with heightened seropositivity in locations of early outbreaks. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that the highest estimated undiagnosed seropositivity within groups was detected in younger participants (ages 18-45, 5.9%), females (5.5%), Black/African American (14.2%), Hispanic (6.1%), and Urban residents (5.3%), and lower undiagnosed seropositivity in those with chronic diseases. During the first wave of infection over the spring/summer of 2020 an estimate of 4.6% of adults had a prior undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data indicate that there were 4.8 (95% CI: 2.8-6.8) undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case of COVID-19 during this same time period in the United States, and an estimated 16.8 million undiagnosed cases by mid-July 2020.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather Kalish
- Trans-NIH Shared Resource on Biomedical Engineering and Physical Science, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Carleen Klumpp-Thomas
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850
| | - Sally Hunsberger
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Holly Ann Baus
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Michael P Fay
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Nalyn Siripong
- Clinical and Translational Science Institute, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Jing Wang
- Clinical Monitoring Research Program Directorate, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick MD 21702
| | - Jennifer Hicks
- Trans-NIH Shared Resource on Biomedical Engineering and Physical Science, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Jennifer Mehalko
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick MD 21702
| | - Jameson Travers
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850
| | - Matthew Drew
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick MD 21702
| | - Kyle Pauly
- Trans-NIH Shared Resource on Biomedical Engineering and Physical Science, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Jacquelyn Spathies
- Trans-NIH Shared Resource on Biomedical Engineering and Physical Science, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Tran Ngo
- Section on Immuno-Engineering, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Kenneth M. Adusei
- Section on Immuno-Engineering, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Maria Karkanitsa
- Section on Immuno-Engineering, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Jennifer A Croker
- Center for Clinical and Translational Science, School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL 35294
| | - Yan Li
- Joint Program in Survey Methodology, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD 20742
| | - Barry I. Graubard
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology & Genetics, Biostatistics Branch, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda MD 20894
| | - Lindsay Czajkowski
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Olivia Belliveau
- Laboratory of Immunoregulation, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Cheryl Chairez
- Laboratory of Immunoregulation, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Kelly Snead
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick MD 21702
| | - Peter Frank
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick MD 21702
| | - Anandakumar Shunmugavel
- Section on Immuno-Engineering, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Alison Han
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Luca T. Giurgea
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Luz Angela Rosas
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Rachel Bean
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Rani Athota
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Adriana Cervantes-Medina
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Monica Gouzoulis
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Brittany Heffelfinger
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Shannon Valenti
- Clinical and Translational Science Institute, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Rocco Caldararo
- Clinical Research Directorate, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Leidos Biomedical Research, Inc, Frederick MD 21702
| | - Michelle M. Kolberg
- Division of Clinical Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Andrew Kelly
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850
| | - Reid Simon
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850
| | - Saifullah Shafiq
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850
| | - Vanessa Wall
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick MD 21702
| | - Susan Reed
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Eric W Ford
- Center for Clinical and Translational Science, School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL 35294
| | - Ravi Lokwani
- Section on Immuno-Engineering, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - John-Paul Denson
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick MD 21702
| | - Simon Messing
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick MD 21702
| | - Sam G. Michael
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850
| | - William Gillette
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick MD 21702
| | - Robert P. Kimberly
- Center for Clinical and Translational Science, School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL 35294
| | - Steven E. Reis
- Clinical and Translational Science Institute, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Matthew D. Hall
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20850
| | - Dominic Esposito
- Protein Expression Laboratory, NCI RAS Initiative, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick MD 21702
| | - Matthew J. Memoli
- Clinical Studies Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
| | - Kaitlyn Sadtler
- Section on Immuno-Engineering, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894
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