1069 ESSENTIAL FRAILTY TOOLSET AS A PREDICTOR OF PROLONGED LENGTH OF STAY AND DISCHARGE DESTINATION AFTER TRANSCATHETER AORTIC VALVE IMPLANTATION

Introduction

Frailty is associated with poor outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Rockwood is the widely used score for this population. In a recent trial, a more objective score, the Essential Frailty Toolset (EFT) outperformed Rockwood’s in predicting mortality and disability 1-year post-TAVI. Whether it predicts in-hospital length of stay (LOS) and discharge destination post-TAVI remains unclear.

Method

A cohort of patients undergoing TAVI for aortic stenosis was recruited, demographic characteristics collected, and frailty assessed with EFT and Rockwood scores. Primary outcomes were LOS post-TAVI, categorised as ‘not prolonged’ (≤2 days) or ‘prolonged’ (>2 days) and discharge destination, characterised as ‘home’ or ‘non-home’.

Results

86 patients were recruited, with median age 82 years (IQR 78–86). 54% were male. EFT identified 35% and Rockwood 11% as frail. 19% were cognitively impaired. 5 chair rises were completed by 70%, with 30% managing under 15 seconds. Median haemoglobin was 121 g/L (IQR 109.5–136). Median albumin was 36 g/L (IQR 33–39). 84% of procedures were transfemoral. 20% had moderate–severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Median LOS post-TAVI was 2 days (IQR 2–5). 94% were discharged home, 6% to referring local hospital or rehabilitation centre. 46% were NYHA class III-IV. A model for prolonged LOS including comorbidities, showed frailty determined by EFT (OR 4.80, CI 95% 1.52–15.2, p = 0.008) but not Rockwood (OR 5.00, CI 95% 0.865–29.0, p = 0.072) was the only significant independent predictor for prolonged LOS. A model adjusting for comorbidities also showed EFT to be an independent predictor for non-home discharge destination of borderline significance (OR 2.57 CI 95% 0.994–6.66, p = 0.051) but Rockwood was not (OR 1.38 CI95% 0.485–3.91, p = 0.548).

Conclusion

In a real-world elderly population, EFT score was a stronger, more independent predictor of prolonged LOS and non-home discharge post-TAVI, than Rockwood’s. EFT would be an effective pre-operative assessment tool for LOS and discharge destination for TAVI.

1095 The Utility of Plasma Circulating Cell-Free Messenger RNA as A Biomarker of Glioma: A Pilot Study

Introduction

Research into the potential utility of plasma-derived circulating-cell-free nucleic acids as non-invasive adjuncts to radiological imaging has been occasioned by the invasive nature of brain tumour biopsy. Circulating-cell-free messenger RNAs are short fragments of RNA present in blood. The objective of this study was to determine whether significant differences exist in the plasma transcriptomic profile of glioma patients relative to differences in their tumour characteristics, and also whether any observed differences were representative of synchronously obtained glioma samples and TCGA glioma derived RNA.

Method

Blood samples were collected from twenty-nine patients prior to tumour resection. Plasma-ccfmRNA and glioma derived RNA were extracted and profiled.

Results

BCL2L1, CXCL5, GZMB, HLA-A, HLA-C, IRF1, MYD88, TGFB1, TLR2, and TP53 genes were significantly over-expressed in glioma (high-grade-glioma-HGG and low-grade-glioma-LGG) patients (p < 0.05, versus control). BCL2L1, GZMB and HLA-A genes were significantly over-expressed in HGG patients (p < 0.05, versus LGG patients). There was positive correlation between the magnitude of fold change of differentially expressed genes in plasma and glioma derived RNA (Spearman r = 0.6344, n = 14, p = 0.017), and with the mean FPKM of TCGA glioma derived RNA samples (Spearman r = 0.4614, n = 19, p = 0.047). There was positive correlation between glioma radiographic tumour burden and the magnitude of fold change of CSF3 gene (r = 0.9813, n = 20, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

We identified significant differential expression of genes involved in cancer inflammation and immunity among patients with different glioma grades, and we identified positive correlation between the plasma transcriptomic profile and tumour samples, and with TCGA glioma derived RNA.

Dietitians’ Attitudes and Experiences of Blended Tube Feeding in Paediatrics

Aims To examine; (a) the number of registered dietitians (RDs) with blended tube fed (BTF) patients, work setting and caseload; (b) attitudes and experiences towards BTF; (c) current BTF supports and future resources required. Methods An online survey collected information from Irish RDs over one month. Data was examined using cross-tabulations and Mann-Whitney U tests. Free-text was categorized into thematic domains. Results A significant number of RDs with HEN paediatric patients concurrently managed BTF patients (n = 27/48, 56.3%, p<0.05). The majority were based in tertiary hospitals (HEN; n = 20/48, 41.7%, BTF; n = 12/27, 44.4%). Equal numbers were willing to support BTF or on a patient-case basis (n = 36/77, 46.8%). International guidelines were most used to inform RDs (n = 40/69, 58.0%). Professional training workshops were the preferred learning method (n = 60/73, 82.2%). Conclusion Overall, BTF appears to be a growing practice. Community services, professional guidelines, training and information are needed.

Are we Over-Imaging the Obese Patient with Suspected Pulmonary Embolus in Ireland

Aims To assess if there was a significant difference in the number of positive studies for pulmonary embolism between obese and non obese patients. Methods A retrospective analysis of all CTPAs performed in our institution over one year in patients aged 18-50 was performed. Data regarding the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism, the presence of airways disease, other significant chest findings, D dimer values and demographic data including a BMI surrogate was obtained. Results Two hundred and thirty CTPAs were performed in our institution over 12 months. Two hundred and twenty-one were included for analysis, of which 129 were male and 92 were female. Sixty-nine (31%) patients were classified as obese. Eleven (16%) of these had positive studies. One hundred and fifty-two patients were in the non obese category, of which 24 (15%) had positive studies. Conclusions We are not over imaging the obese patient, but are over imaging patients in general with suspected PE, but are exposing a significant number overall, to unnecessary radiation.

Comparison of Kaposi Sarcoma Risk in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Positive Adults Across 5 Continents: A Multiregional Multicohort Study

BACKGROUND

We compared Kaposi sarcoma (KS) risk in adults who started antiretroviral therapy (ART) across the Asia-Pacific, South Africa, Europe, Latin, and North America.

METHODS

We included cohort data of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive adults who started ART after 1995 within the framework of 2 large collaborations of observational HIV cohorts. We present incidence rates and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs).

RESULTS

We included 208140 patients from 57 countries. Over a period of 1066572 person-years, 2046 KS cases were diagnosed. KS incidence rates per 100000 person-years were 52 in the Asia-Pacific and ranged between 180 and 280 in the other regions. KS risk was 5 times higher in South African women (aHR, 4.56; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 2.73-7.62) than in their European counterparts, and 2 times higher in South African men (2.21; 1.34-3.63). In Europe, Latin, and North America KS risk was 6 times higher in men who have sex with men (aHR, 5.95; 95% CI, 5.09-6.96) than in women. Comparing patients with current CD4 cell counts ≥700 cells/µL with those whose counts were <50 cells/µL, the KS risk was halved in South Africa (aHR, 0.53; 95% CI, .17-1.63) but reduced by ≥95% in other regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite important ART-related declines in KS incidence, men and women in South Africa and men who have sex with men remain at increased KS risk, likely due to high human herpesvirus 8 coinfection rates. Early ART initiation and maintenance of high CD4 cell counts are essential to further reducing KS incidence worldwide, but additional measures might be needed, especially in Southern Africa.

A randomised controlled trial of calcium channel blockade (CCB) with Amlodipine For the treatment oF subcortical ischaEmic vasCular demenTia (AFFECT): study protocol

BACKGROUND

Vascular dementia is the second most common cause of dementia affecting over seven million people worldwide, yet there are no licensed treatments. There is an urgent need for a clinical trial in this patient group. Subcortical ischaemic vascular dementia is the most common variant of vascular dementia. This randomised trial will investigate whether use of calcium channel blockade with amlodipine, a commonly used agent, can provide the first evidence-based pharmacological treatment for subcortical ischaemic vascular dementia.

METHODS/DESIGN

This is a randomised controlled trial of calcium channel blockade with Amlodipine For the treatment oF subcortical ischaEmic vasCular demenTia (AFFECT) to test the hypothesis that treatment with amlodipine can improve outcomes for these patients in a phase IIb, multi-centre, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised trial. The primary outcome is the change from baseline to 12 months in the Vascular Dementia Assessment Scale cognitive subscale (VADAS-cog). Secondary outcomes include cognitive function, executive function, clinical global impression of change, change in blood pressure, quantitative evaluation of lesion accrual based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), health-related quality of life, activities of daily living, non-cognitive dementia symptoms, care-giver burden and care-giver health-related quality of life, cost-effectiveness and institutionalisation. A total of 588 patients will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to either amlodipine or placebo, recruited from sites across the UK and enrolled in the trial for 104 weeks.

DISCUSSION

There are no treatments licensed for vascular dementia. The most common subtype is subcortical ischaemic vascular dementia (SIVD). This study is designed to investigate whether amlodipine can produce benefits compared to placebo in established SIVD. It is estimated that the numbers of people with VaD and SIVD will increase globally in the future and the results of this study should inform important treatment decisions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN31208535 . Registered on 7 March 2014.

Early Childhood Dental Problems

Investigations into the wider bioecological understanding of dental problems in early childhood are limited in national surveys. Classification tree analysis (CTA) was used to explore multilevel interactions among key aspects of child and primary caregiver (PCG) psychosocial and physical health affecting dental problems in preschool children. Data were derived from the Growing Up in Ireland study, a nationally representative sample of 9-mo-olds (N = 11,134) in 2007/2008 followed up at age 3 y (N = 9,793) in 2010/2011. Analysis included PCG reports of children’s dental problems, general health, temperament, emotional and behavioral difficulties, and their own general health, stress and depression, relationship, and sociodemographic variables. Misclassification costs were specified for the model by applying a higher penalty for misclassifying those with a dental problem (minority class). Logistic regression analyses were carried out for comparison. Dental problems were reported among 302 infants (2.7%) at 9 mo of age and 493 children (5.0%) at 3 y. CTA identified infant temperament (Infant Characteristics Questionnaire unpredictable) as the primary predictor of dental problems at 9 mo and child global health at 3 y of age. First-level predictors were PCG depression score and use of a soother at 9 mo and PCG ethnicity and unscheduled hospital visits at 3 y of age. Regression analyses results supported the most important predictors at 9 mo and 3 y of age. The CTA model for 9-mo-old infants had a specificity of 90.4%, sensitivity of 31.2%, and overall accuracy of 88.8% while that for 3-y-olds had a specificity of 58.5%, sensitivity of 66%, and overall accuracy of 59%. Key aspects of infant/child and PCG health, as well as psychosocial characteristics associated with reported dental problems, should be considered in future multidisciplinary approaches to child health.

Knowledge Transfer Statement: The results of this data analysis should help raise awareness among clinicians of how primary caregiver and child psychosocial and general health factors are associated with early childhood dental problems, even before the primary dentition is complete. Classification tree analysis visually demonstrates how factors such as infant temperament (9 mo) and child global health (3 y) can interact at multiple levels and affect different subgroups of the child population. Future intervention strategies for oral health should involve consideration of the psychological and general health characteristics of the young child and PCG at both the patient and population levels. This knowledge could assist decision makers adopt an integrated multidisciplinary approach in formulating a coherent oral health policy for preschool children.

A conceptual modeling framework for discrete event simulation using hierarchical control structures

Conceptual Modeling (CM) is a fundamental step in a simulation project. Nevertheless, it is only recently that structured approaches towards the definition and formulation of conceptual models have gained importance in the Discrete Event Simulation (DES) community. As a consequence, frameworks and guidelines for applying CM to DES have emerged and discussion of CM for DES is increasing. However, both the organization of model-components and the identification of behavior and system control from standard CM approaches have shortcomings that limit CM's applicability to DES. Therefore, we discuss the different aspects of previous CM frameworks and identify their limitations. Further, we present the Hierarchical Control Conceptual Modeling framework that pays more attention to the identification of a models' system behavior, control policies and dispatching routines and their structured representation within a conceptual model. The framework guides the user step-by-step through the modeling process and is illustrated by a worked example.

The Women’s Health Initiative randomized trial of calcium plus vitamin D: Effects on breast cancer and arthralgias

LBA6

Background: Calcium (Ca) and vitamin D (D) have been associated with reduced breast cancer and breast density in observational studies. Randomized trials have not evaluated Ca/D supplementation for breast cancer prevention. Methods: We randomized 36,282 postmenopausal women without prior breast cancer from 40 WHI centers to 1000 mg of elemental calcium as calcium carbonate and 400 IU of vitamin D3 (N = 18,176) daily or matching placebo (N = 18,106); 54% were also randomized one year previously to hormone therapy (HT) or placebo; conjugated equine estrogen (CEE) plus medroxyprogesterone acetate or CEE alone (the latter for those with prior hysterectomy). Ca/D effects on hip fracture and colorectal cancer have been reported (NEJM 2006). We report here pathologically confirmed invasive breast cancer as a secondary outcome of the Ca/D trial. Baseline serum 25(OH) D levels (in 1787 women) and serial joint symptoms (pain/stiffness and hand/feet swelling 0–3 scale, in a 6% sample) were also assessed. Results: Breast cancer incidence did not differ between Ca/D and placebo randomization groups (528 and 546 cases in Ca/D and placebo; hazard ratio 0.96; 95 percent confidence interval (CI), 0.85, 1.09). While SEER stage and abnormal mammogram frequency were similar between groups, breast cancers were smaller in the Ca/D group (1.54 cm (1.23), mean (SD) versus 1.71 (1.29), P = 0.05). Total vitamin D baseline intake was associated with lower breast cancer risk in the placebo group. Baseline vitamin D (nmol per liter) deficiency was common (≥30, sufficient (n = 266), 16 ≤ 30, insufficient (277), < 16, deficient (743)) but was not related to joint pain (seen in 72.2%, 74.0%, 74.6%, of sufficiency and deficiency groups, respectively). Joint symptoms were lower in women randomized to CEE alone (P < 0.01) but did not significantly differ by Ca/D group assignment and no significant interactions were seen between HT and Ca/D. Conclusion: Among healthy postmenopausal women, Ca/D supplementation did not reduce breast cancer risk but the cancers in those randomized to Ca/D were somewhat smaller. Exogenous estrogen use but not Ca/D supplementation influences arthralgias.

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