Wastewater surveillance provides 10-days forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalizations superior to cases and test positivity: A prediction study

Background

The public health response to COVID-19 has shifted to reducing deaths and hospitalizations to prevent overwhelming health systems. The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in wastewater are known to correlate with clinical data including cases and hospital admissions for COVID-19. We developed and tested a predictive model for incident COVID-19 hospital admissions in New York State using wastewater data.

Methods

Using county-level COVID-19 hospital admissions and wastewater surveillance covering 13.8 million people across 56 counties, we fit a generalized linear mixed model predicting new hospital admissions from wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from April 29, 2020 to June 30, 2022. We included covariates such as COVID-19 vaccine coverage in the county, comorbidities, demographic variables, and holiday gatherings.

Findings

Wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA correlated with new hospital admissions per 100,000 up to ten days prior to admission. Models that included wastewater had higher predictive power than models that included clinical cases only, increasing the accuracy of the model by 15%. Predicted hospital admissions correlated highly with observed admissions (r = 0.77) with an average difference of 0.013 hospitalizations per 100,000 (95% CI = [0.002, 0.025]).

Interpretation

Using wastewater to predict future hospital admissions from COVID-19 is accurate and effective with superior results to using case data alone. The lead time of ten days could alert the public to take precautions and improve resource allocation for seasonal surges.

Wastewater Testing and Detection of Poliovirus Type 2 Genetically Linked to Virus Isolated from a Paralytic Polio Case - New York, March 9-October 11, 2022

In July 2022, a case of paralytic poliomyelitis resulting from infection with vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) type 2 (VDPV2)§ was confirmed in an unvaccinated adult resident of Rockland County, New York (1). As of August 10, 2022, poliovirus type 2 (PV2)¶ genetically linked to this VDPV2 had been detected in wastewater** in Rockland County and neighboring Orange County (1). This report describes the results of additional poliovirus testing of wastewater samples collected during March 9-October 11, 2022, and tested as of October 20, 2022, from 48 sewersheds (the community area served by a wastewater collection system) serving parts of Rockland County and 12 surrounding counties. Among 1,076 wastewater samples collected, 89 (8.3%) from 10 sewersheds tested positive for PV2. As part of a broad epidemiologic investigation, wastewater testing can provide information about where poliovirus might be circulating in a community in which a paralytic case has been identified; however, the most important public health actions for preventing paralytic poliomyelitis in the United States remain ongoing case detection through national acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) surveillance†† and improving vaccination coverage in undervaccinated communities. Although most persons in the United States are sufficiently immunized, unvaccinated or undervaccinated persons living or working in Kings, Orange, Queens, Rockland, or Sullivan counties, New York should complete the polio vaccination series as soon as possible.

Identifying a spatial scale for the analysis of residential burglary: An empirical framework based on point pattern analysis

A key issue in the spatial and temporal analysis of residential burglary is the choice of scale: spatial patterns might differ appreciably for different time periods and vary across geographic units of analysis. Based on point pattern analysis of burglary incidents in Columbus, Ohio during a 9-year period, this study develops an empirical framework to identify a useful spatial scale and its dependence on temporal aggregation. Our analysis reveals that residential burglary in Columbus clusters at a characteristic scale of 2.2 km. An ANOVA test shows no significant impact of temporal aggregation on spatial scale of clustering. This study demonstrates the value of point pattern analysis in identifying a scale for the analysis of crime patterns. Furthermore, the characteristic scale of clustering determined using our method has great potential applications: (1) it can reflect the spatial environment of criminogenic processes and thus be used to define the spatial boundary for place-based policing; (2) it can serve as a candidate for the bandwidth (search radius) for hot spot policing; (3) its independence of temporal aggregation implies that police officials need not be concerned about the shifting sizes of risk-areas depending on the time of the year.