Predictive value of ATN biomarker profiles in estimating disease progression in Alzheimer's disease dementia

We aimed to evaluate the value of ATN biomarker classification system (amyloid beta [A], pathologic tau [T], and neurodegeneration [N]) for predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia. In a sample of people with MCI (n = 415) we assessed predictive performance of ATN classification using empirical knowledge-based cut-offs for each component of ATN and compared it to two data-driven approaches, logistic regression and RUSBoost machine learning classifiers, which used continuous clinical or biomarker scores. In data-driven approaches, we identified ATN features that distinguish normals from individuals with dementia and used them to classify persons with MCI into dementia-like and normal groups. Both data-driven classification methods performed better than the empirical cut-offs for ATN biomarkers in predicting conversion to dementia. Classifiers that used clinical features performed as well as classifiers that used ATN biomarkers for prediction of progression to dementia. We discuss that data-driven modeling approaches can improve our ability to predict disease progression and might have implications in future clinical trials.

Predicting Amyloid-β Levels in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment Using Machine Learning Techniques

BACKGROUND

Amyloid-β positivity (Aβ+) based on PET imaging is part of the enrollment criteria for many of the clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease (AD), particularly in trials for amyloid-targeted therapy. Predicting Aβ positivity prior to PET imaging can decrease unnecessary patient burden and costs of running these trials.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of a machine learning model in estimating the individual risk of Aβ+ based on gold-standard of PET imaging.

METHODS

We used data from an amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) subset of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort to develop and validate the models. The predictors of Aβ status included demographic and ApoE4 status in all models plus a combination of neuropsychological tests (NP), MRI volumetrics, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers.

RESULTS

The models that included NP and MRI measures separately showed an area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUC) of 0.74 and 0.72, respectively. However, using NP and MRI measures jointly in the model did not improve prediction. The models including CSF biomarkers significantly outperformed other models with AUCs between 0.89 to 0.92.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive models can be effectively used to identify persons with aMCI likely to be amyloid positive on a subsequent PET scan.

MRI signatures of brain age and disease over the lifespan based on a deep brain network and 14 468 individuals worldwide

Deep learning has emerged as a powerful approach to constructing imaging signatures of normal brain ageing as well as of various neuropathological processes associated with brain diseases. In particular, MRI-derived brain age has been used as a comprehensive biomarker of brain health that can identify both advanced and resilient ageing individuals via deviations from typical brain ageing. Imaging signatures of various brain diseases, including schizophrenia and Alzheimer's disease, have also been identified using machine learning. Prior efforts to derive these indices have been hampered by the need for sophisticated and not easily reproducible processing steps, by insufficiently powered or diversified samples from which typical brain ageing trajectories were derived, and by limited reproducibility across populations and MRI scanners. Herein, we develop and test a sophisticated deep brain network (DeepBrainNet) using a large (n = 11 729) set of MRI scans from a highly diversified cohort spanning different studies, scanners, ages and geographic locations around the world. Tests using both cross-validation and a separate replication cohort of 2739 individuals indicate that DeepBrainNet obtains robust brain-age estimates from these diverse datasets without the need for specialized image data preparation and processing. Furthermore, we show evidence that moderately fit brain ageing models may provide brain age estimates that are most discriminant of individuals with pathologies. This is not unexpected as tightly-fitting brain age models naturally produce brain-age estimates that offer little information beyond age, and loosely fitting models may contain a lot of noise. Our results offer some experimental evidence against commonly pursued tightly-fitting models. We show that the moderately fitting brain age models obtain significantly higher differentiation compared to tightly-fitting models in two of the four disease groups tested. Critically, we demonstrate that leveraging DeepBrainNet, along with transfer learning, allows us to construct more accurate classifiers of several brain diseases, compared to directly training classifiers on patient versus healthy control datasets or using common imaging databases such as ImageNet. We, therefore, derive a domain-specific deep network likely to reduce the need for application-specific adaptation and tuning of generic deep learning networks. We made the DeepBrainNet model freely available to the community for MRI-based evaluation of brain health in the general population and over the lifespan.

Resting-state brain oscillations predict trait-like cognitive styles

Anecdotal reports suggest the existence of individual differences in peoples' cognitive styles for solving problems, in particular, the tendency to rely on insight (the "aha" phenomenon) versus deliberate analytical thought. We hypothesized that such stable individual differences exist and are associated with trait-like individual differences in resting-state brain activity. We tested this idea by recording participants' resting-state electroencephalograms (RS-EEGs) on 4 occasions over approximately 7 weeks and then tasking them with solving anagrams and compound remote associates problems that are solvable by either strategy. We found that peoples' tendency to solve problems consistently by insight or by analysis spans both tasks and time. Moreover, we discovered trait-like individual differences in the balance between frontal and posterior resting-state brain activity and in temporal-lobe hemispheric asymmetries that predict, at least weeks in advance, the tendency to solve by insight versus analysis. The discovery of an insight-analytic dimension of cognitive style and its neural basis in resting state brain activity suggests new avenues for the development of neuroscience-based methods for intellectual, educational, and vocational assessment.

A Growth-Curve Analysis of the Effects of Future-Thought Priming on Insight and Analytical Problem-Solving

Research based on construal level theory (CLT) suggests that thinking about the distant future can prime people to solve problems by insight (i.e., an "aha" moment) while thinking about the near future can prime them to solve problems analytically. In this study, we used a novel method to elucidate the time-course of temporal priming effects on creative problem solving. Specifically, we used growth-curve analysis (GCA) to examine the time-course of priming while participants solved a series of brief verbal problems. Participants were tested in two counterbalanced sessions in a within-subject experimental design; one session featured near-future priming and the other featured far-future priming. Our results suggest high-level construal may temporarily enhance analytical thinking; far-future priming caused transient facilitation of analytical solving while near-future priming induced weaker, transient facilitation of insightful solving. However, this effect is short-lived; priming produced no significant differences in the total number of insights and analytical solutions. Given the fleeting nature of these effects, future studies should consider implementing methodology that allows for aspects of the time-course of priming effects to be examined. A method such as GCA may reveal mild effects that would be otherwise missed using other types of analyses.