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Cheng Y, Gadd DA, Gieger C, Monterrubio-Gómez K, Zhang Y, Berta I, Stam MJ, Szlachetka N, Lobzaev E, Wrobel N, Murphy L, Campbell A, Nangle C, Walker RM, Fawns-Ritchie C, Peters A, Rathmann W, Porteous DJ, Evans KL, McIntosh AM, Cannings TI, Waldenberger M, Ganna A, McCartney DL, Vallejos CA, Marioni RE. Development and validation of DNA methylation scores in two European cohorts augment 10-year risk prediction of type 2 diabetes. Nat Aging 2023; 3:450-458. [PMID: 37117793 DOI: 10.1038/s43587-023-00391-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2021] [Accepted: 02/27/2023] [Indexed: 04/30/2023]
Abstract
Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) presents a major health and economic burden that could be alleviated with improved early prediction and intervention. While standard risk factors have shown good predictive performance, we show that the use of blood-based DNA methylation information leads to a significant improvement in the prediction of 10-year T2D incidence risk. Previous studies have been largely constrained by linear assumptions, the use of cytosine-guanine pairs one-at-a-time and binary outcomes. We present a flexible approach (via an R package, MethylPipeR) based on a range of linear and tree-ensemble models that incorporate time-to-event data for prediction. Using the Generation Scotland cohort (training set ncases = 374, ncontrols = 9,461; test set ncases = 252, ncontrols = 4,526) our best-performing model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.872, area under the precision-recall curve (PRAUC) = 0.302) showed notable improvement in 10-year onset prediction beyond standard risk factors (AUC = 0.839, precision-recall AUC = 0.227). Replication was observed in the German-based KORA study (n = 1,451, ncases = 142, P = 1.6 × 10-5).
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Affiliation(s)
- Yipeng Cheng
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Danni A Gadd
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Christian Gieger
- Research Unit Molecular Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
- German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Karla Monterrubio-Gómez
- MRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Yufei Zhang
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Imrich Berta
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Michael J Stam
- School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Evgenii Lobzaev
- School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Nicola Wrobel
- Edinburgh Clinical Research Facility, University of Edinburgh, Western General Hospital, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Lee Murphy
- Edinburgh Clinical Research Facility, University of Edinburgh, Western General Hospital, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Archie Campbell
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Cliff Nangle
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Rosie M Walker
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh BioQuarter, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Chloe Fawns-Ritchie
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Department of Psychology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Annette Peters
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
- German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany
- German Centre for Cardiovascular Research, Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, München, Germany
| | - Wolfgang Rathmann
- German Center for Diabetes Research, München-Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Institute for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - David J Porteous
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kathryn L Evans
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Andrew M McIntosh
- Division of Psychiatry, Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Melanie Waldenberger
- Research Unit Molecular Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Andrea Ganna
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Daniel L McCartney
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Catalina A Vallejos
- MRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
- The Alan Turing Institute, London, UK.
| | - Riccardo E Marioni
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
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