Development of machine learning models for detection of vision threatening Behçet's disease (BD) using Egyptian College of Rheumatology (ECR)-BD cohort

BACKGROUND

Eye lesions, occur in nearly half of patients with Behçet's Disease (BD), can lead to irreversible damage and vision loss; however, limited studies are available on identifying risk factors for the development of vision-threatening BD (VTBD). Using an Egyptian college of rheumatology (ECR)-BD, a national cohort of BD patients, we examined the performance of machine-learning (ML) models in predicting VTBD compared to logistic regression (LR) analysis. We identified the risk factors for the development of VTBD.

METHODS

Patients with complete ocular data were included. VTBD was determined by the presence of any retinal disease, optic nerve involvement, or occurrence of blindness. Various ML-models were developed and examined for VTBD prediction. The Shapley additive explanation value was used for the interpretability of the predictors.

RESULTS

A total of 1094 BD patients [71.5% were men, mean ± SD age 36.1 ± 10 years] were included. 549 (50.2%) individuals had VTBD. Extreme Gradient Boosting was the best-performing ML model (AUROC 0.85, 95% CI 0.81, 0.90) compared with logistic regression (AUROC 0.64, 95%CI 0.58, 0.71). Higher disease activity, thrombocytosis, ever smoking, and daily steroid dose were the top factors associated with VTBD.

CONCLUSIONS

Using information obtained in the clinical settings, the Extreme Gradient Boosting identified patients at higher risk of VTBD better than the conventional statistical method. Further longitudinal studies to evaluate the clinical utility of the proposed prediction model are needed.

Systemic lupus erythematosus children in Egypt: Homeland spectrum amid the global situation

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to present the manifestations of juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) across Egypt, to focus on age at onset and gender-driven influence on disease characteristics, and to compare findings to other countries.

METHODS

The study included 404 Egyptian children with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) presenting to one of the specialized rheumatology centers corresponding to 13 major governorates. Juvenile cases age was ≤ 16°years at the time of recruitment. The SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) and damage index (DI) were assessed.

RESULTS

The mean age was 13.2 ± 2.4°years; 355 females and 49 males (7.2:1), and the disease duration was 2.3 ± 1.6 years, while age at disease onset was 11.1 ± 2.5°years. Their SLEDAI was 13.5 ± 12.3, and DI, 0.36 ± 0.78. The overall estimated prevalence of childhood-SLE patients in the recruited cohort in Egypt was 1/100,000 population (0.24/100000 males and 1.8/100000 females). 7.4% developed pre-pubertal SLE (≤ 7 years); 73.3%, peri-pubertal; and 19.3% during early adolescence. The differences according to age group were equal for gender and clinical manifestations except skin lesions present in 59.3% of pre-pubertal onset, 74.6% of peri-pubertal, and 84.2% of adolescents (p = 0.029), and renal involvement in 73.8% of peripubertal, 62.1% of pre-pubertal and 58.9% of adolescents (p = 0.03). Laboratory investigations, SLEDAI, and DI were similar among age categories. Lupus nephritis was more common in Egypt compared to JSLE from other countries.

CONCLUSION

Our large multicenter study identified that female gender influenced disease characteristics with more frequent skin involvement. Skin lesions were significantly higher in adolescents, while renal involvement in peri-pubertal children.

Development and validation of a Behçet's Disease Damage Index for adults with BD: An Explicit, Composite and Rated (ECR) tool

BACKGROUND

Behçet's disease (BD) is a chronic multisystem variable vessel vasculitis. Disease damage is irreversible and permanent. Validated tools evaluating damage are limited. Enhancements in the clinical treatment of vasculitis will take place from the development of refined and exclusive indices for individual vasculitic syndromes including BD and attempting their international validation.

OBJECTIVES

This aim was to develop and validate a simple BD Damage Index (BDI).

METHODS

This was a nationwide study including 1252 BD patients. The work consisted of 3 stages. Stage 1: items generation for score content. Stage 2: items selection for the draft score was performed by an expert rheumatologist. Stage 3: the content validity of the draft score was assessed and BDI, Vasculitis Damage Index (VDI), Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated Vasculitis Index of Damage (AVID) and Combined Damage Assessment Index (CDAI) were calculated and compared.

RESULTS

The mean age of the BD patients was 36.1 ± 9.9 years. Stages 1 and 2 resulted in a BDI instrument containing 73 items with a maximum score of 100. Stage 3, the VDI, CDAI, AVID, and BDI were 2.9 ± 2.2, 3.1 ± 2.3, 3.1 ± 2.3 and 5.1 ± 2.9, respectively. High correlations (r = .9) between comparable damage scores assured acceptable concurrent validity.

CONCLUSION

The proposed BDI represents a new robust and potentially useful tool when dealing with BD chronic status.

Adult systemic lupus erythematosus in Egypt: The nation-wide spectrum of 3661 patients and world-wide standpoint

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to present the epidemiology, clinical manifestations and treatment pattern of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Egyptian patients over the country and compare the findings to large cohorts worldwide. Objectives were extended to focus on the age at onset and gender driven influence on the disease characteristics.

PATIENTS AND METHOD

This population-based, multicenter, cross-sectional study included 3661 adult SLE patients from Egyptian rheumatology departments across the nation. Demographic, clinical, and therapeutic data were assessed for all patients.

RESULTS

The study included 3661 patients; 3296 females and 365 males (9.03:1) and the median age was 30 years (17-79 years), disease duration 4 years (0-75 years) while the median age at disease onset was 25 years (4-75 years). The overall estimated prevalence of adult SLE in Egypt was 6.1/100,000 population (1.2/100,000 males and 11.3/100,000 females).There were 316 (8.6%) juvenile-onset (Jo-SLE) and 3345 adult-onset (Ao-SLE). Age at onset was highest in South and lowest in Cairo (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

SLE in Egypt had a wide variety of clinical and immunological manifestations, with some similarities with that in other nations and differences within the same country. The clinical characteristics, autoantibodies and comorbidities are comparable between Ao-SLE and Jo-SLE. The frequency of various clinical and immunological manifestations varied between gender. Additional studies are needed to determine the underlying factors contributing to gender and age of onset differences.

Rheumatologists' practice during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: a survey in Egypt

The aim of this work is to trace how rheumatologists all over Egypt are approaching the COVID-19 pandemic and what changes it has brought about in the patients' care with special attention to its effect on vulnerable rheumatic disease (RD) patients. This survey further aims to help inform the rheumatology community about the changes in practice during the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey included 26 questions distributed to University staff members across Egypt members of the Egyptian College of Rheumatology (ECR). It takes 5-10 min to fill out. The practice setting of participating rheumatologists included University Teaching Hospitals that are the main rheumatology and clinical immunology service providers for adults and children RD patients. There was an overall agreement across the country in the responses to the survey that took a median time of 7 min to fill in. Potential changes in rheumatology outpatient practice by staff members evolved since the COVID-19 pandemic. None of the university rheumatology staff members has prescribed chloroquine or HCQ to prevent or treat COVID-19 in a non-hospitalized patient who was not previously on it. Twenty-three recommended decrease/avoid NSAIDs if the RD patient had confirmed COVID-19 or symptoms. There is an agreement to the key emerging frontline role of rheumatologists in treating COVID-19. During the pandemic, RD cases requiring admission were dealt with by several modified strategies. The overall agreement among the different university rheumatology departments during such critical situation has provoked the ECR to consider providing provisional guidelines for dealing with RD patients during this global catastrophe.

Correction to: Behçet's disease in Egypt: a multicenter nationwide study on 1526 adult patients and review of the literature

The author wishes to correct the record and clarify that in the original version of this article in the Discussion section under "Prevalence over the country governorates" inadvertently presented incorrect data cited in the reference [30].