Interrater reliability of photographic assessment of thyroid eye disease using the VISA classification

PURPOSE

To determine the interrater reliability (IRR) of thyroid eye disease (TED) photographic assessment using the VISA classification. To assess whether a VISA grading atlas improves ophthalmology trainees' performance in photographic assessment of TED.

METHODS

A prospective, partially randomized, international study conducted from September 2021 to May 2022. Online study invitation was emailed to a volunteer sample group of 68 ophthalmology college accredited consultants and trainees, and 6 were excluded from the study. Participants were asked to score 10 patient photographs of TED using only the inflammation and motility restriction components of the VISA classification. IRR was compared between groups of practitioners by their level of experience. A clinical activity grading atlas was randomized to 50% of the ophthalmology trainees.

RESULTS

Overall rater ICC was 0.96 for inflammation and 0.99 for motility restriction. No statistically significant difference in IRR between rater groups was identified. Trainees with a grading atlas had the highest IRR for inflammation (ICC = 0.95). Each subcomponent of the inflammation and motility restriction components of VISA classification had an ICC considered good to excellent. The mean overall rater score was 4.6/9 for inflammation and 3.5/12 for motility restriction. For motility restriction there was a reduced mean score variance among all raters when scoring photographs with more severe motility restriction.

CONCLUSION

IRR using the inflammation and motility restriction components of the VISA classification was excellent. A VISA grading atlas improved trainee performance in grading inflammation.

Simulating the effects of different spatio-temporal fire regimes on plant metapopulation persistence in a Mediterranean-type region

Spatio-temporal fire regimes are likely to shift with changes in land use and climate. Such a shift in the disturbance regime has been proposed from recent reconstructions of the regional fire history in the Mediterranean-type woodlands and shrublands of Western Australia which suggest that fire was much more frequent before 1930 (local fire intervals of 3–5 years) than it is today (local fire intervals of 8–15 years).

To investigate the potential biodiversity consequences of such changes in fire regime for fire-killed woody species, we developed a spatial model for the serotinous shrub Banksia hookeriana that grows on sand dunes of the Eneabba Plain, Western Australia. We sought to identify the envelope of fire regimes under which the spatially separated populations in this species are able to persist, and whether this encompasses the fire regimes proposed by recent fire-history reconstructions.

We tested two fire frequency-size distribution scenarios: (1) a scenario where fire size depends on the spatial patch configuration; and (2) a scenario depending also on available fuel (time since last fire), which reduces fire size at short inter-fire intervals.

In scenario 1, metapopulation persistence was only likely for mean ignition intervals at the landscape scale of 6 years. In scenario 2, persistence was likely for the whole range of fire interval distributions at the landscape scale suggested by the empirical data. However, persistence was almost impossible if the mean return fire interval at the local scale (i.e. for individual dunes) is < 8 years.

Synthesis and applications. We have demonstrated that this plant metapopulation can potentially persist over a wide range of temporal fire regimes at the landscape scale, so long as there are buffering mechanisms at work (e.g. feedback between fire spread and vegetation age) which reduces the probability of large fires at short intervals. Our findings demonstrate that at least some parts of the landscape must burn substantially less frequently on average than suggested by the empirical fire reconstructions for the early and pre-European period if populations of fire-killed woody species such as B. hookeriana are to be conserved.

Contrasting impacts of pollen and seed dispersal on spatial genetic structure in the bird-pollinated Banksia hookeriana

In plants, pollen- and seed-dispersal distributions are characteristically leptokurtic, with significant consequences for spatial genetic structure and nearest-neighbour mating. However, most studies to date have been on wind- or insect-pollinated species. Here, we assigned paternity to quantify effective pollen dispersal over 9 years of mating, contrasted this to seed dispersal and examined their effects on fine-scale spatial genetic structure, within the bird-pollinated shrub Banksia hookeriana (Proteaceae). We used 163 polymorphic amplified fragment length polymorphism markers to assess genetic structure and pollen dispersal in a spatially discrete population of 112 plants covering 0.56 ha. Spatial autocorrelation analysis detected spatial genetic structure in the smallest distance class of 0-5 m (r=0.025), with no significant structure beyond 8 m. Experimentally quantified seed-dispersal distances for 337 seedlings showed a leptokurtic distribution around a median of 5 m, reaching a distance of 36 m. In marked contrast, patterns of pollen dispersal for 274 seeds departed strikingly from typical near-neighbour pollination, with a distribution largely corresponding to the spatial distribution of plants. We found very high multiple paternity, very low correlated paternity and an equal probability of siring for the 50 closest potential mates. Extensive pollen carryover was demonstrated by multiple siring in 83 of 86 (96.5%) two-seeded fruits. Highly mobile nectar-feeding birds facilitate this promiscuity through observed movements that were effectively random. As the incidence of bird-pollination is markedly greater in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region than elsewhere, our results have broad and novel significance for the evolution and conservation for many species in Gondwanan lineages.

Anthropogenic disturbance promotes hybridization between Banksia species by altering their biology

Putative hybrids between Banksia hookeriana and B. prionotes were identified among 12 of 106 populations of B. hookeriana located at or near anthropogenically disturbed sites, mainly roadways, but none in 156 undisturbed populations. Morphometrics and AFLP markers confirmed that a hybrid swarm existed in a selected disturbed habitat, whereas no intermediates were present where the two species co-occurred in undisturbed vegetation. Individuals of both species in disturbed habitats at 12 sites were more vigorous, with greater size and more flower heads than their counterparts in undisturbed vegetation. These more fecund plants also showed a shift in season and duration of flowering. By promoting earlier flowering of B. hookeriana plants and prolonging flowering of B. prionotes, anthropogenic disturbance broke the phenological barrier between these two species. We conclude that anthropogenic disturbance promotes hybridization through increasing opportunities for gene flow by reducing interpopulation separation, increasing gamete production and, especially, promoting coflowering.

Comparing plant life histories using elasticity analysis: the importance of life span and the number of life-cycle stages

Recent studies have used transition matrix elasticity analysis to investigate the relative role of survival (L), growth (G) and fecundity (F) in determining the estimated rate of population increase for perennial plants. The relative importance of these three variables has then been used as a framework for comparing patterns of plant life history in a triangular parameter space. Here we analyse the ways in which the number of life-cycle stages chosen to describe a species (transition matrix dimensionality) might influence the interpretation of such comparisons. Because transition matrix elements describing survival ("stasis") and growth are not independent, the number of stages used to describe a species influences their relative contribution to the population growth rate. Reduction in the number of stages increases the apparent importance of stasis relative to growth, since each becomes broader and fewer individuals make the transition to the next stage per unit time period. Analysis of a test matrix for a hypothetical tree species divided into 4-32 life-cycle stages confirms this. If the number of stages were defined in relation to species longevity so that mean residence time in each stage were approximately constant, then the elasticity of G would reflect the importance of relative growth rate to λ. An alternative, and simpler, approach to ensure comparability of results between species may be to use the same number of stages regardless of species longevity. Published studies for both herbaceous and woody species have tended to use relatively few stages to describe life cycles (herbs: n=45, [Formula: see text]; woody plants: n=21, [Formula: see text]) and so approximate this approach. By using the same number of stages regardless of longevities, the position of species along the G-L side of the triangular parameter space largely reflects differences in longevity. The extent of variation in elasticity for L, G and F within and between species may also be related to factors such as successional status and habitat. For example, the shade-tolerant woody species, Araucaria cunninghamii, shows greater importance for stasis (L), while the gap-phase congener species, Araucaria hunsteinii, shows higher values for G (although values are likely to vary with the stage of stand development).