Perforated peptic ulcer - a case series and an African perspective

BACKGROUND

Perforation of peptic ulcer (PPU) is the most morbid complication of peptic ulcer disease (PUD) with scant recent reports from sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of this study was to describe a PPU series from a single centre in South Africa and contrast the findings with other recent reports from sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

A retrospective study of PPU at Kalafong Hospital in Pretoria was performed. The relationship of patient demographics, risk factors, ulcer pathology and severity scores to mortality were analysed. Recent similar reports from sub-Saharan Africa were reviewed and the findings compared to the current study and findings from high income countries (HIC).

RESULTS

The study comprised 121 patients. The majority were black men with an average age of 46.6 years, with few comorbidities. A large proportion of patients admitted to risk factors and most presented to hospital 48 hours after the onset of symptoms. The majority (71%) of the perforations occurred in the stomach. The patient sex, age, risk factors and the mortality at 4% were similar to other African studies, although perforations were mainly duodenal in most of the African studies. The median age of patients in the East African studies was lower by 13 years. Patients in HIC series of PPU were older, more likely to be female, have duodenal perforations and a higher mortality than in the African series.

CONCLUSION

Patients were mostly smokers, presented late to hospital and had gastric perforations. The findings of low mortality and male predominance concurred with those of other sub-Saharan African reports and were the opposite of trends in HIC.

Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality from the South African Cohort of the African Surgical Outcomes Study

BACKGROUND

Data on the factors that influence mortality after surgery in South Africa are scarce, and neither these data nor data on risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality after surgery are routinely collected. Predictors related to the context or setting of surgical care delivery may also provide insight into variation in practice. Variation must be addressed when planning for improvement of risk-adjusted outcomes. Our objective was to identify the factors predicting in-hospital mortality after surgery in South Africa from available data.

METHODS

A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to identify predictors of 30-day in-hospital mortality in surgical patients in South Africa. Data from the South African contribution to the African Surgical Outcomes Study were used and included 3800 cases from 51 hospitals. A forward stepwise regression technique was then employed to select for possible predictors prior to model specification. Model performance was evaluated by assessing calibration and discrimination. The South African Surgical Outcomes Study cohort was used to validate the model.

RESULTS

Variables found to predict 30-day in-hospital mortality were age, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status category, urgent or emergent surgery, major surgery, and gastrointestinal-, head and neck-, thoracic- and neurosurgery. The area under the receiver operating curve or c-statistic was 0.859 (95% confidence interval: 0.827-0.892) for the full model. Calibration, as assessed using a calibration plot, was acceptable. Performance was similar in the validation cohort as compared to the derivation cohort.

CONCLUSION

The prediction model did not include factors that can explain how the context of care influences post-operative mortality in South Africa. It does, however, provide a basis for reporting risk-adjusted perioperative mortality rate in the future, and identifies the types of surgery to be prioritised in quality improvement projects at a local or national level.