Knowledge-based expert systems for toxicity and metabolism prediction: DEREK, StAR and METEOR

It has long been recognised that the ability to predict the metabolic fate of a chemical substance and the potential toxicity of either the parent compound or its metabolites are important in novel drug design. The popularity of using computer models as an aid in this area has grown considerably in recent years. LHASA Limited has been developing knowledge-based expert systems for toxicity and metabolism prediction in collaboration with industry and regulatory authorities. These systems, DEREK, StAR and METEOR, use rules to describe the relationship between chemical structure and either toxicity in the case of DEREK and StAR, or metabolic fate in the case of METEOR. The rule refinement process for DEREK often involves assessing the predictions for a novel set of compounds and comparing them to their biological assay results as a measure of the system's performance. For example, 266 non-congeneric chemicals from the National Toxicology Program database have been processed through the DEREK mutagenicity knowledge base and the predictions compared to their Salmonella typhimurium mutagenicity data. Initially, 81 of 114 mutagens (71%) and 117 of 152 non-mutagens (77%) were correctly identified. Following further knowledge base development, the number of correctly identified mutagens has increased to 96 (84%). Further work on improving the predictive capabilities of DEREK, StAR and METEOR is in progress.

Using new reasoning technology in chemical information systems

Unreliability of numerical data causes difficulties in computer systems for decision-making, risk assessment, and similar activities. Much human judgment is non-numerical and able to make useful evaluations of alternatives under uncertainty. The Logic of Argumentation (LA) offers a basis for computerized support of decision-making in the absence of numerical data, and it is being used in a project on carcinogenic risk assessment, StAR. There are potential applications of LA in other artificial intelligence systems in chemistry, such as for synthesis planning.

Computer prediction of possible toxic action from chemical structure: an update on the DEREK system

Computer-based assessment of potential toxicity has become increasingly popular in recent years. The knowledge-base system DEREK is developed under the guidance of a multinational Collaborative Group of expert toxicologists and provides a qualitative approach to toxicity prediction. Major developments of the DEREK program and knowledge-base have taken place in the last 3 years. Program developments include improvements in both the user interface and data processing. Work on the knowledge-base has concentrated on the areas of genotoxicity and skin sensitisation. DEREK's predictive capabilities for these toxicological end-points has been demonstrated. In addition to the continued expansion of the knowledge-base, a number of enhancements are planned in the DEREK program. In particular, work is in progress to develop further DEREK's ability to report the reasoning behind its predictions.