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Enenkel M, Brown ME, Vogt JV, McCarty JL, Reid Bell A, Guha-Sapir D, Dorigo W, Vasilaky K, Svoboda M, Bonifacio R, Anderson M, Funk C, Osgood D, Hain C, Vinck P. Why predict climate hazards if we need to understand impacts? Putting humans back into the drought equation. Clim Change 2020; 162:1161-1176. [PMID: 33071396 PMCID: PMC7545810 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02878-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2019] [Accepted: 09/25/2020] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Virtually all climate monitoring and forecasting efforts concentrate on hazards rather than on impacts, while the latter are a priority for planning emergency activities and for the evaluation of mitigation strategies. Effective disaster risk management strategies need to consider the prevailing "human terrain" to predict who is at risk and how communities will be affected. There has been little effort to align the spatiotemporal granularity of socioeconomic assessments with the granularity of weather or climate monitoring. The lack of a high-resolution socioeconomic baseline leaves methodical approaches like machine learning virtually untapped for pattern recognition of extreme climate impacts on livelihood conditions. While the request for "better" socioeconomic data is not new, we highlight the need to collect and analyze environmental and socioeconomic data together and discuss novel strategies for coordinated data collection via mobile technologies from a drought risk management perspective. A better temporal, spatial, and contextual understanding of socioeconomic impacts of extreme climate conditions will help to establish complex causal pathways and quantitative proof about climate-attributable livelihood impacts. Such considerations are particularly important in the context of the latest big data-driven initiatives, such as the World Bank's Famine Action Mechanism (FAM).
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Affiliation(s)
- M. Enenkel
- Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA USA
- World Bank Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance (DRFI) Program, Washington, DC USA
| | - M. E. Brown
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD USA
| | - J. V. Vogt
- European Commission, Joint Research Center, Ispra, VA Italy
| | - J. L. McCarty
- Department of Geography, Miami University, Oxford, OH USA
| | - A. Reid Bell
- Department of Environmental Studies, New York University, New York, USA
| | - D. Guha-Sapir
- Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Institute for Health and Society, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium
| | - W. Dorigo
- Department of Geodesy and Geoinformation, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria
| | - K. Vasilaky
- Department of Economics, Orfalea College of Business, California Polytechnic University, San Luis Obispo, CA USA
| | - M. Svoboda
- US National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, USA
| | - R. Bonifacio
- United Nations World Food Programme, Rome, Italy
| | - M. Anderson
- U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Beltsville, MD USA
| | - C. Funk
- U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science and the University of Santa Barbara, Climate Hazards Center, Santa Barbara, CA USA
| | - D. Osgood
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, NY USA
| | - C. Hain
- NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Earth Science Branch, Huntsville, AL USA
| | - P. Vinck
- Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA USA
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Vinck P, Pham P. PeaceBuilding and Displacement in Northern Uganda: A Cross-sectional Study of Intentions to Move and Attitudes towards Former Combatants. Refugee Survey Quarterly 2009. [DOI: 10.1093/rsq/hdp014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
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