Resolving the Gestational Diabetes Diagnosis Conundrum: The Need for a Randomized Controlled Trial of Treatment

The diagnosis of and criteria for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) continue to divide the scientific and medical community, both between and within countries. Many argue for universal adoption of the International Association of the Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups (IADPSG) criteria and feel that further clinical trials are unjustified and even unethical. However, there are concerns about the large increase in number of women who would be diagnosed with GDM using these criteria and the subsequent impact on health care resources and the individual. This Perspective reviews the origins of the IADPSG consensus and points out some of its less well-known limitations, particularly with respect to identifying women at risk for an adverse pregnancy outcome. It also questions the clinical and cost-effectiveness data often cited to support the IADPSG glycemic thresholds. We present the argument that adoption of diagnostic criteria defining GDM should be based on response to treatment at different diagnostic thresholds of maternal glycemia. This will likely require an international multicenter trial of treatment.

Temporal changes in home advantage in English football since the Second World War: what explains improved away performance?

This study examined temporal trends in home advantage in the top two English football divisions and used change point analysis to test the hypothesis that home advantage has not remained constant over time. Regression analysis was used to model the impact of substitutions (a proxy for "information transfer") and the points system on home advantage. The results suggest that changing from two points for a win to three points for a win has led to a 0.39 reduction (95% confidence interval=0.21 to 0.56) in the ratio of home wins to away wins. Increasing the number of substitutions is associated with a small increase in the ratio of home wins to away wins, although this is not statistically significant. The evidence indicates that, in this particular context, the extent of home advantage has diminished. This contradicts most other published work, which suggests that home advantage is stable over time. I argue that this reduction is more likely to be the result of the introduction of three points for a win, which has lessened the incentives for away teams to settle for a draw, than an increase in "information transfer". Research into temporal trends in home advantage is interesting in its own right but might, in addition, shed light on determinants of the home advantage phenomenon.

Virtual outreach: economic evaluation of joint teleconsultations for patients referred by their general practitioner for a specialist opinion

OBJECTIVES

To test the hypotheses that, compared with conventional outpatient consultations, joint teleconsultation (virtual outreach) would incur no increased costs to the NHS, reduce costs to patients, and reduce absences from work by patients and their carers.

DESIGN

Cost consequences study alongside randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Two hospitals in London and Shrewsbury and 29 general practices in inner London and Wales.

PARTICIPANTS

3170 patients identified; 2094 eligible for inclusion and willing to participate. 1051 randomised to virtual outreach and 1043 to standard outpatient appointments.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

NHS costs, patient costs, health status (SF-12), time spent attending index consultation, patient satisfaction.

RESULTS

Overall six months costs were greater for the virtual outreach consultations ( pound 724 per patient) than for conventional outpatient appointments ( pound 625): difference in means pound 99 ($162; 138) (95% confidence interval pound 10 to pound 187, P=0.03). If the analysis is restricted to resource items deemed "attributable" to the index consultation, six month costs were still greater for virtual outreach: difference in means pound 108 ( pound 73 to pound 142, P < 0.0001). In both analyses the index consultation accounted for the excess cost. Savings to patients in terms of costs and time occurred in both centres: difference in mean total patient cost pound 8 ( pound 5 to pound 10, P < 0.0001). Loss of productive time was less in the virtual outreach group: difference in mean cost pound 11 ( pound 10 to pound 12, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The main hypothesis that virtual outreach would be cost neutral is rejected, but the hypotheses that costs to patients and losses in productivity would be lower are supported.

Cost-effectiveness of preoperative positron emission tomography in ischemic heart disease

BACKGROUND

Revascularization of patients with ischemic heart disease and poor left ventricular function for surgical procedures is expensive and carries considerable risks, but may improve survival for patients with hibernating myocardium. Positron emission tomography can detect hibernating myocardium, and may be cost-effective if used to select patients for operation.

METHODS

An economic model was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of three management strategies: (1) coronary artery bypass grafting for all patients; (2) using positron emission tomography to select candidates for coronary artery bypass grafting, those without hibernation remaining on medical therapy; and (3) medical therapy for all patients. The model used data from our hospital and the published literature. A sensitivity analysis was also undertaken.

RESULTS

Positron emission tomography was cost-effective in selecting patients for operation. In a hypothetical population of 1,000 patients, using positron emission tomography saved marginally more life-years and cost approximately Pound Sterling 3 million less. Using positron emission tomography before coronary artery bypass grafting instead of all patients receiving medical treatment saved lives but was more expensive. The incremental cost per life-year saved was Pound Sterling 77,000. The sensitivity analysis showed that the prevalence of hibernation and the survival rate of patients refused revascularization on the basis of the positron emission tomography scan were the areas most likely to influence cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

Positron emission tomography may be cost-effective to select patients with poor left ventricular function for coronary artery bypass grafting.

Design and performance of a multi-centre randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation of joint tele-consultations [ISRCTN54264250]

BACKGROUND

Appropriate information flow is crucial to the care of patients, particularly at the interface between primary and secondary care. Communication problems can result from inadequate organisation and training, There is a major expectation that information and communication technologies may offer solutions, but little reliable evidence. This paper reports the design and performance of a multi-centre randomised controlled trial (RCT), unparalleled in telemedicine research in either scale or range of outcomes. The study investigated the effectiveness and cost implications in rural and inner-city settings of using videoconferencing to perform joint tele-consultations as an alternative to general practitioner referral to the hospital specialist in the outpatient clinic.

METHODS

Joint tele-consultation services were established in both the Royal Free Hampstead NHS Trust in inner London, and the Royal Shrewsbury Hospitals Trust, in Shropshire. All the patients who gave consent to participate were randomised either to joint tele-consultation or to a routine outpatients appointment. The principal outcome measures included the frequency of decision by the specialist to offer a follow-up outpatient appointment, patient satisfaction (Ware Specific Questionnaire), wellbeing (SF12) and enablement (PEI), numbers of tests, investigations, procedures and treatments.

RESULTS

A total of 134 general practitioners operating from 29 practices participated in the trial, referring a total of 3170 patients to 20 specialists in ENT medicine, general medicine (including endocrinology, and rheumatology), gastroenterology, orthopaedics, neurology and urology. Of these, 2094 patients consented to participate in the study and were correctly randomised. There was a 91% response rate to the initial assessment questionnaires, and analysis showed equivalence for all key characteristics between the treatment and control groups.

CONCLUSION

We have designed and performed a major multi-centre trial of teleconsultations in two contrasting centres. Many problems were overcome to enable the trial to be carried out, with a considerable development and learning phase. A lengthier development phase might have enabled us to improve the patient selection criteria, but there is a window of opportunity for these developments, and we believe that our approach was appropriate, allowing the evaluation of the technology before its widespread implementation.

An educational tool to illustrate cost-effectiveness in diagnostic pathways for coronary artery disease

Rapid increases in healthcare costs have led to increased interest in the cost-effectiveness of medical interventions. Coronary artery disease is responsible for a significant share of total healthcare spending, and therefore economic evaluations of medical procedures to treat the condition are potentially very important. We have developed a spreadsheet model as an educational tool that can be used to illustrate cost-effectiveness in the selection of diagnostic pathways (a "work-up" strategy of tests designed to reach a final diagnosis) for coronary artery disease. The model, in Microsoft Excel, is easy to use, requiring no specialist computer knowledge. It is menu-driven and the user navigates the model via a number of on-screen buttons. A data entry screen allows the user to customize the data for the key model parameters, making it possible to take into account location-specific features. The data entry screen also allows the user to undertake sensitivity analysis and rate "what if" scenarios. The model demonstrates how sensitive the cost-effectiveness of different diagnostic pathways is to the pretest probability of disease. This package could also be used as a decision support tool, although it is important to recognize some of its limitations for this purpose.