Fetal Medicine Foundation charts for fetal growth in twins

OBJECTIVE

To derive reference distributions of estimated fetal weight (EFW) in twins relative to singletons.

METHODS

Gestational-age- and chorionicity-specific reference distributions for singleton percentiles and EFW were fitted to data on 4391 twin pregnancies with two liveborn fetuses from four European centers, including 3323 dichorionic (DC) and 1068 monochorionic diamniotic (MCDA) twin pregnancies. Gestational age was derived using the larger of the two crown-rump length measurements obtained during the first trimester of pregnancy. EFW was obtained from ultrasound measurements of head circumference, abdominal circumference and femur length using the Hadlock formula. Singleton percentiles were obtained using the Fetal Medicine Foundation population weight charts for singleton pregnancies. Hierarchical models were fitted to singleton Z-scores with autoregressive terms for serial correlations within the same fetus and between twins from the same pregnancy. Separate models were fitted for DC and MCDA twins.

RESULTS

Fetuses from twin pregnancies tended to be smaller than singletons at the earliest gestational ages (16 weeks for MCDA and 20 weeks for DC twins). This was followed by a period of catch-up growth until around 24 weeks. After that, both DC and MCDA twins showed reduced growth. In DC twins, the EFW corresponding to the 50th percentile was at the 50th percentile of singleton pregnancies at 23 weeks, the 43rd percentile at 28 weeks, the 32nd percentile at 32 weeks and the 22nd percentile at 36 weeks. In MCDA twins, the EFW corresponding to the 50th percentile was at the 36th percentile of singleton pregnancies at 24 weeks, the 29th percentile at 28 weeks, the 19th percentile at 32 weeks and the 12th percentile at 36 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

In DC and, to a greater extent, MCDA twin pregnancies, fetal growth is reduced compared with that observed in singleton pregnancies. Furthermore, after 24 weeks, the divergence in growth trajectories between twin and singleton pregnancies becomes more pronounced as gestational age increases. © 2023 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Prediction of hypertensive disorders after screening at 36 weeks' gestation: comparison of angiogenic markers with competing-risks model

OBJECTIVE

To compare the performance at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation of screening for delivery with pre-eclampsia (PE) at various timepoints, using one of three approaches: placental growth factor (PlGF) concentration, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) to PlGF concentration ratio, or the competing-risks model, which combines maternal risk factors with biomarkers to estimate patient-specific risk.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of women attending for a routine hospital visit at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation at one of two maternity hospitals in England between 2016 and 2022. During the visit, maternal demographic characteristics and medical history were recorded and serum PlGF, serum sFlt-1 and mean arterial pressure (MAP) were measured. Detection rates (DRs) were evaluated for delivery with PE (defined as per American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists 2019 criteria) within 1 week, within 2 weeks or at any time after screening, using the following strategies: (i) low PlGF (< 10th percentile); (ii) high sFlt-1/PlGF ratio (> 90th percentile); or (iii) the competing-risks model, in which maternal factors were combined with multiples of the median values of PlGF ('single test'), PlGF and sFlt-1 ('double test') or PlGF, sFlt-1 and MAP ('triple test'). Risk cut-offs corresponded to a screen-positive rate of 10%. DRs were compared between tests.

RESULTS

Of 34 782 pregnancies, 831 (2.4%) developed PE. In screening for delivery with PE at any time from assessment, the DR at 10% screen-positive rate was 47% by low PlGF alone, 54% by the single test, 55% by high sFlt-1/PlGF ratio, 61% by the double test and 68% by the triple test. In screening for delivery with PE within 2 weeks from assessment, the respective values were 67%, 74%, 74%, 80% and 87%. In screening for delivery with PE within 1 week from assessment, the respective values were 77%, 81%, 85%, 88% and 91%. For prediction of PE at any time, the DR was significantly higher with the triple test compared to PlGF alone or the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio, with a DR difference (95% CI) of 20.1% (16.7-23.0%) and 12.4% (9.7-15.3%), respectively. Similar results were seen for prediction of PE within 2 weeks (20.6% (14.9-26.8%) and 12.9% (7.7-17.5%), respectively) and prediction of PE within 1 week (13.5% (5.4-21.6%) and 5.4% (0.0-10.8%), respectively). The double test was superior to the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio and the single test was superior to PlGF alone in the prediction of PE within 2 weeks and at any time from assessment, but not within 1 week of assessment.

CONCLUSION

At 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation, the performance of screening for PE by the competing-risks model triple test is superior to that of PlGF alone or the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio for the development of disease within 1 week, within 2 weeks and at any time from screening. © 2023 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Incidence of stillbirth: effect of deprivation

OBJECTIVES

To examine the relationship between the English index of multiple deprivation (IMD) and the incidence of stillbirth and assess whether IMD contributes to the prediction of stillbirth provided by the combination of maternal demographic characteristics and elements of medical history.

METHODS

This was a prospective, observational study of 159 125 women with a singleton pregnancy who attended their first routine hospital visit at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation in two maternity hospitals in the UK. The inclusion criterion was delivery at ≥ 24 weeks' gestation of a fetus without major abnormality. Participants completed a questionnaire on demographic characteristics and obstetric and medical history. IMD was used as a measure of socioeconomic status, which takes into account income, employment, education, skills and training, health and disability, crime, barriers to housing and services, and living environment. Each neighborhood is ranked according to its level of deprivation relative to that of other areas into one of five equal groups, with Quintile 1 containing the 20% most deprived areas and Quintile 5 containing the 20% least deprived areas. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine whether IMD provided a significant independent contribution to stillbirth after adjustment for known maternal risk factors.

RESULTS

The overall incidence of stillbirth was 0.35% (551/159 125), and this was significantly higher in the most deprived compared with the least deprived group (Quintile 1 vs Quintile 5). The odds ratio (OR) in Quintile 1 was 1.57 (95% CI, 1.16-2.14) for any stillbirth, 1.64 (95% CI, 1.20-2.28) for antenatal stillbirth and 1.89 (95% CI, 1.23-2.98) for placental dysfunction-related stillbirth. In Quintile 1 (vs Quintile 5), there was a higher incidence of factors that contribute to stillbirth, including black race, increased body mass index, smoking, chronic hypertension and previous stillbirth. The OR of black (vs white) race was 2.58 (95% CI, 2.14-3.10) for any stillbirth, 2.62 (95% CI, 2.16-3.17) for antenatal stillbirth and 3.34 (95% CI, 2.59-4.28) for placental dysfunction-related stillbirth. Multivariate analysis showed that IMD did not have a significant contribution to the prediction of stillbirth provided by maternal race and other maternal risk factors. In contrast, in black (vs white) women, the risk of any and antenatal stillbirth was 2.4-fold higher and the risk of placental dysfunction-related stillbirth was 2.9-fold higher after adjustment for other maternal risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of stillbirth, particularly placental dysfunction-related stillbirth, is higher in women living in the most deprived areas in South East England. However, in screening for stillbirth, inclusion of IMD does not improve the prediction provided by race, other maternal characteristics and elements of medical history. © 2022 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Incidence of pre-eclampsia: effect of deprivation

OBJECTIVES

To examine the relationship between the English index of multiple deprivation (IMD) and the incidence of pre-eclampsia (PE), evaluate the distribution of IMD in a cohort of ethnically diverse pregnant women in South East England and assess whether IMD improves the prediction of PE compared with that provided by the 'history-only' competing-risks model (based on maternal characteristics and medical history).

METHODS

This was a prospective, observational study of 159 125 women with a singleton pregnancy who attended their first routine hospital visit at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation in two maternity hospitals in the UK. The inclusion criteria were delivery at ≥ 24 weeks' gestation of babies without major abnormality. Participants completed a questionnaire on demographic characteristics and obstetric and medical history, which was then reviewed by a doctor together with the woman. Patients were asked to self-identify as white, black, South Asian, East Asian or mixed race. IMD was used as a measure of socioeconomic status, which takes into account income, employment, education, skills and training, health and disability, crime, barriers to housing and services, and living environment. Each neighborhood is ranked according to their level of deprivation relative to that of other areas into one of five equal groups, with Quintile 1 containing the 20% most deprived areas and Quintile 5 containing the 20% least deprived areas. IMD was assigned based on a woman's postcode. Risk factors for PE and its incidence were assessed across IMD using chi-square test or t-test, as appropriate. The relationship between IMD and gestational age at delivery with PE was evaluated by fitting parametric survival models for IMD alone, IMD combined with race and IMD combined with the Fetal Medicine Foundation history-only competing-risks model.

RESULTS

The incidence of PE (n = 4088, 2.6%) increased progressively across IMD quintiles, from 2.0% in Quintile 5 (least deprived) to 3.0% in Quintile 1 (most deprived). Compared with white women and those in other racial groups, black women had a higher incidence of PE (4.8%), were less often in IMD Quintiles 4 and 5, and were more often in IMD Quintiles 1 and 2. None of the IMD quintiles improved the prediction of PE compared with that provided by the history-only competing-risks model (which includes race). The history-only competing-risks model with vs without IMD had a similar detection rate for delivery with PE at < 37 weeks' gestation (44.1% (95% CI, 41.1-47.2%) vs 43.9% (95% CI, 40.1-47.0%)) and at any gestational age (35.2% (95% CI, 33.8-36.7%) vs 35.1% (95% CI, 33.7-36.6%)), at a 10% screen-positive rate.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of PE is higher in women living in the most deprived areas in South East England and in black women (vs those of other racial groups), who also live in areas of higher deprivation. However, in screening for PE, inclusion of IMD does not improve the prediction of PE provided by race and other maternal characteristics and elements of medical history. © 2022 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Competing-risks model for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate at 36 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

To develop further a competing-risks model for the prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate by including sonographically estimated fetal weight (EFW) and biomarkers of impaired placentation at 36 weeks' gestation, and to compare the performance of the new model with that of the traditional EFW < 10^th percentile cut-off.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in 29 035 women with a singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. A competing-risks model for the prediction of a SGA neonate was used. The parameters included in the prior-history model were provided in previous studies. An interaction continuous model was used for the EFW likelihood. A folded plane regression model was fitted to describe likelihoods of biomarkers of impaired placentation. Stratification plans were also developed. The new model was evaluated and compared with EFW percentile cut-offs.

RESULTS

The performance of the model was better for predicting SGA neonates delivered closer to the point of assessment. The prediction provided by maternal factors alone was improved significantly by the addition of EFW, uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and placental growth factor (PlGF) but not by mean arterial pressure or soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1. At a 10% false-positive rate, maternal factors and EFW predicted 77.6% and 65.8% of SGA neonates < 10^th percentile delivered before 38 and 42 weeks, respectively. The respective figures for SGA < 3^rd percentile were 85.5% and 74.2%. Addition of UtA-PI and PlGF resulted in marginal improvement in prediction of SGA < 3^rd percentile requiring imminent delivery. A competing-risks approach that combines maternal factors and EFW performed better when compared with fixed EFW percentile cut-offs at predicting a SGA neonate, especially with increasing time interval between assessment and delivery. The new model was well-calibrated.

CONCLUSIONS

A competing-risks model provides effective risk stratification for a SGA neonate at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation and is superior to EFW percentile cut-offs. The use of biomarkers of impaired placentation in addition to maternal factors and fetal biometry results in small improvement of the predictive performance for a neonate with severe SGA. © 2022 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Competing-risks model for pre-eclampsia and adverse pregnancy outcomes

OBJECTIVE

The competing-risks model for assessment of risk for pre-eclampsia (PE) at 35-37 weeks' gestation identifies the majority of women who are at high risk of subsequent delivery with PE. We aimed to examine the incidence and relative risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes in patient groups stratified according to the estimated risk of delivery with PE.

METHODS

This was a prospective non-interventional, observational study in women with a singleton pregnancy attending for a routine hospital visit at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. The risk of delivery with PE for each patient in the study population was estimated using the competing-risks model, combining the prior distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE and the likelihood from multiples of the median values of mean arterial pressure, placental growth factor and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1. The patients were assigned to one of the following five risk categories: Group A, ≥ 1 in 2; Group B, 1 in 5 to 1 in 3; Group C, 1 in 20 to 1 in 6; Group D, 1 in 50 to 1 in 21; and Group E, < 1 in 50. The outcome measures were delivery with PE, gestational hypertension (GH), small-for-gestational age (SGA) at birth, delivery by Cesarean section, stillbirth, neonatal death, perinatal death and admission to the neonatal unit (NNU) for at least 48 h. In each risk category, the proportion of women with each adverse outcome was determined and relative risks (RR) were calculated as compared with the lowest-risk Group E.

RESULTS

In the study population of 29 035 women, 1.6%, 2.7%, 8.2%, 9.8% and 77.8% were categorized into Groups A, B, C, D and E, respectively. Compared with women in Group E, women in the higher-risk groups were more likely to have an adverse outcome. The RR of delivery with PE in Group A compared with Group E was 65.5 (95% CI, 54.1-79.1) and the respective values were 11.9 (95% CI, 9.1-15.5) for GH, 1.8 (95% CI, 1.5-2.1) for delivery by emergency Cesarean section, 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2-1.8) for delivery by elective Cesarean section, 8.9 (95% CI, 7.4-10.8) for SGA with birth weight < 3^rd percentile, 4.8 (95% CI, 4.3-5.4) for SGA with birth weight < 10^th percentile, 5.3 (95% CI, 1.4-20.5) for stillbirth and 3.4 (95% CI, 2.8-4.2) for NNU admission for ≥ 48 h. The RR for these pregnancy complications in higher-risk groups (vs Group E) was particularly high for cases with delivery within 2 weeks after assessment. In terms of SGA, both for birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles, the trend in all cases was stronger than that observed when the analysis was confined to normotensive pregnancies. The rates of neonatal death were too small to allow meaningful comparisons between risk groups.

CONCLUSION

Pregnant women identified by the competing-risks model to be at high risk of PE are also at increased risk of GH, Cesarean section, stillbirth, SGA and NNU admission for ≥ 48 h. © 2022 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Estimated fetal weight at mid-gestation in prediction of pre-eclampsia in singleton pregnancy

OBJECTIVE

To examine the distribution of birth weight according to gestational age in pregnancies complicated by pre-eclampsia (PE) and assess the potential value of sonographic estimated fetal weight (EFW) at mid-gestation as a predictor of PE.

METHODS

The data for this study were derived from prospective screening for adverse obstetric outcome in 93 911 women with a singleton pregnancy attending for routine pregnancy care at 19 + 0 to 24 + 6 weeks' gestation in two UK maternity hospitals. This visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, sonographic EFW and measurement of mean arterial pressure (MAP) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI). The distribution of birth weight of pregnancies with and those without PE was assessed. The competing-risks model was used to estimate the individual, patient-specific risk of delivery with PE at < 32 and < 37 weeks' gestation and at any gestational age. The areas under the receiver-operating-characteristics curves and detection rates (DRs) of delivery with PE, at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR), were assessed for various combinations of maternal risk factors, EFW, MAP and UtA-PI. McNemar's test was used to determine the significance of difference in DR at a 10% FPR between screening with vs without EFW.

RESULTS

The study population contained 2843 (3.0%) pregnancies that subsequently developed PE, including 148 (0.2%) that delivered with PE at < 32 weeks' gestation and 654 (0.7%) that delivered with PE at < 37 weeks. Birth weight was < 10^th percentile in 82% of pregnancies with PE delivering at < 32 weeks' gestation and this decreased to 21% of those with PE delivering at ≥ 37 weeks. In screening for delivery with PE at < 32 and < 37 weeks' gestation, the DR, at a 10% FPR, achieved by maternal risk factors (51% and 46%, respectively) was improved by addition of EFW (69% and 51%, respectively). Similarly, addition of EFW improved the performance of screening by a combination of maternal risk factors and MAP from 72% to 80% for PE < 32 weeks and from 57% to 60% for PE < 37 weeks. EFW did not improve the predictive performance of screening by a combination of maternal risk factors, MAP and UtA-PI.

CONCLUSIONS

In pregnancies complicated by preterm PE, a high proportion of neonates are small-for-gestational age, and sonographic EFW at mid-gestation can improve the prediction of early and preterm PE provided by maternal risk factors and MAP but not the prediction provided by a combination of maternal risk factors, MAP and UtA-PI. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Second-trimester contingent screening for small-for-gestational-age neonate

OBJECTIVES

First, to investigate the additive value of second-trimester placental growth factor (PlGF) for the prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate. Second, to examine second-trimester contingent screening strategies.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 19-24 weeks' gestation. We used the competing-risks model for prediction of SGA. The parameters for the prior model and the likelihoods for estimated fetal weight (EFW) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) were those presented in previous studies. A folded-plane regression model was fitted in the dataset of this study to describe the likelihood of PlGF. We compared the prediction of screening by maternal risk factors against the prediction provided by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF. We also examined the additive value of PlGF in a policy that uses maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI.

RESULTS

The study population included 40 241 singleton pregnancies. Overall, the prediction of SGA improved with increasing degree of prematurity, with increasing severity of smallness and in the presence of coexisting pre-eclampsia. The combination of maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF improved significantly the prediction provided by maternal risk factors alone for all the examined cut-offs of birth weight and gestational age at delivery. Screening by a combination of maternal risk factors and serum PlGF improved the prediction of SGA when compared to screening by maternal risk factors alone. However, the incremental improvement in prediction was decreased when PlGF was added to screening by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI. If first-line screening for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at < 37 weeks' gestation was by maternal risk factors and EFW, the same detection rate of 90%, at an overall false-positive rate (FPR) of 50%, as that achieved by screening with maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF in the whole population can be achieved by reserving measurements of UtA-PI and PlGF for only 80% of the population. Similarly, in screening for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at < 30 weeks, the same detection rate of 90%, at an overall FPR of 14%, as that achieved by screening with maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF in the whole population can be achieved by reserving measurements of UtA-PI and PlGF for only 70% of the population. The additive value of PlGF in reducing the FPR to about 10% with a simultaneous detection rate of 90% for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 3^rd percentile born < 30 weeks, is gained by measuring PlGF in only 50% of the population when first-line screening is by maternal factors, EFW and UtA-PI.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF provides effective second-trimester prediction of SGA. Serum PlGF is useful for predicting a SGA neonate with birth weight < 3^rd percentile born < 30 weeks after an inclusive assessment by maternal risk factors and biophysical markers. Similar detection rates and FPRs can be achieved by application of contingent screening strategies. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Risk of fetal loss after chorionic villus sampling in twin pregnancy derived from propensity score matching analysis

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the risk of fetal loss associated with chorionic villus sampling (CVS) in twin pregnancy, using propensity score analysis.

METHODS

This was a multicenter cohort study of women with twin pregnancy undergoing ultrasound examination at 11-13 weeks' gestation, performed in eight fetal medicine units in which the leadership were trained at the Harris Birthright Research Centre for Fetal Medicine in London, UK, and in which the protocols for screening, invasive testing and pregnancy management are similar. The risk of death of at least one fetus was compared between pregnancies that had and those that did not have CVS, after propensity score matching (1:1 ratio). This procedure created two comparable groups by balancing the maternal and pregnancy characteristics that lead to CVS being performed, similar to how randomization operates in a randomized clinical trial.

RESULTS

The study population of 8581 twin pregnancies included 445 that had CVS. Death of one or two fetuses at any stage during pregnancy occurred in 11.5% (51/445) of pregnancies in the CVS group and in 6.3% (515/8136) in the non-CVS group (P < 0.001). The propensity score algorithm matched 258 cases that had CVS with 258 non-CVS cases; there was at least one fetal loss in 29 (11.2%) cases in the CVS group and in 35 (13.6%) cases in the matched non-CVS group (odds ratio (OR), 0.81; 95% CI, 0.48-1.35; P = 0.415). However, there was a significant interaction between the risk of fetal loss after CVS and the background risk of fetal loss; when the background risk was higher, the risk of fetal loss after CVS decreased (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.23-0.90), while, in pregnancies with a lower background risk of fetal loss, the risk of fetal loss after CVS increased (OR, 2.45; 95% CI, 0.95-7.13). The effects were statistically significantly different (P-value of the interaction = 0.005). For a pregnancy in which the background risk of fetal loss was about 6% (the same as in our non-CVS population), there was no change in the risk of fetal loss after CVS, but, when the background risk was more than 6%, the posterior risk was paradoxically reduced, and when the background risk was less than 6%, the posterior risk increased exponentially; for example, if the background risk of fetal loss was 2.0%, the relative risk was 2.8 and the posterior risk was 5.6%.

CONCLUSION

In twin pregnancy, after accounting for the risk factors that lead to both CVS and spontaneous fetal loss and confining the analysis to pregnancies at lower prior risk, CVS seems to increase the risk of fetal loss by about 3.5% above the patient's background risk. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Development and validation of model for prediction of placental dysfunction-related stillbirth from maternal factors, fetal weight and uterine artery Doppler at mid-gestation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the performance of a model combining maternal risk factors, uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and estimated fetal weight (EFW) at 19-24 weeks' gestation, for predicting all antepartum stillbirths and those due to impaired placentation, in a training dataset used for development of the model and in a validation dataset.

METHODS

The data for this study were derived from prospective screening for adverse obstetric outcome in women with singleton pregnancy attending for routine pregnancy care at 19 + 0 to 24 + 6 weeks' gestation. The study population was divided into a training dataset used to develop prediction models for placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth and a validation dataset to which the models were then applied. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop a model based on a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW Z-score and UtA-PI multiples of the normal median. We examined the predictive performance of the model by, first, the ability of the model to discriminate between the stillbirth and live-birth groups, using the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) and the detection rate (DR) at a fixed false-positive rate (FPR) of 10%, and, second, calibration by measurements of calibration slope and intercept.

RESULTS

The study population of 131 514 pregnancies included 131 037 live births and 477 (0.36%) stillbirths. There are four main findings of this study. First, 92.5% (441/477) of stillbirths were antepartum and 7.5% (36/477) were intrapartum, and 59.2% (261/441) of antepartum stillbirths were observed in association with placental dysfunction and 40.8% (180/441) were unexplained or due to other causes. Second, placental dysfunction accounted for 80.1% (161/201) of antepartum stillbirths at < 32 weeks' gestation, 54.2% (52/96) at 32 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks and 33.3% (48/144) at ≥ 37 weeks. Third, the risk of placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth increased with increasing maternal weight and decreasing maternal height, was 3-fold higher in black than in white women, was 5.5-fold higher in parous women with previous stillbirth than in those with previous live birth, and was increased in smokers, in women with chronic hypertension and in parous women with a previous pregnancy complicated by pre-eclampsia and/or birth of a small-for-gestational-age baby. Fourth, in screening for placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI in the validation dataset, the DR at a 10% FPR was 62.3% (95% CI, 57.2-67.4%) and the AUC was 0.838 (95% CI, 0.799-0.878); these results were consistent with those in the dataset used for developing the algorithm and demonstrate high discrimination between affected and unaffected pregnancies. Similarly, the calibration slope was 1.029 and the intercept was -0.009, demonstrating good agreement between the predicted risk and observed incidence of placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth. The performance of screening was better for placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth at < 37 weeks' gestation compared to at term (DR at a 10% FPR, 69.8% vs 29.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Screening at mid-gestation by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI can predict a high proportion of placental dysfunction-related stillbirths and, in particular, those that occur preterm. Such screening provides poor prediction of unexplained stillbirth or stillbirth due to other causes. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

STATIN trial: predictive performance of competing-risks model in screening for pre-eclampsia at 35-37 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the predictive performance of a previously reported competing-risks model of screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) at 35-37 weeks' gestation by combinations of maternal risk factors, mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) in a validation dataset derived from the screened population of the STATIN study.

METHODS

This was a prospective third-trimester multicenter study of screening for PE in singleton pregnancies by means of a previously reported algorithm that combines maternal risk factors and biomarkers. Women in the high-risk group were invited to participate in a trial of pravastatin vs placebo, but the trial showed no evidence of an effect of pravastatin in the prevention of PE. Patient-specific risks of delivery with PE were calculated using the competing-risks model, and the performance of screening for PE by maternal risk factors alone and by various combinations of risk factors with MAP, UtA-PI, PlGF and sFlt-1 was assessed. The predictive performance of the model was examined by, first, the ability of the model to discriminate between the PE and no-PE groups using the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) and the detection rate at a fixed false-positive rate of 10%, and, second, calibration by measurements of calibration slope and calibration-in-the-large.

RESULTS

The study population of 29 677 pregnancies contained 653 that developed PE. In screening for PE by a combination of maternal risk factors, MAP, PlGF and sFlt-1 (triple test), the detection rate at a 10% false-positive rate was 79% (95% CI, 76-82%) and the results were consistent with the data used for developing the algorithm. Addition of UtA-PI did not improve the prediction provided by the triple test. The AUC for the triple test was 0.923 (95% CI, 0.913-0.932), demonstrating very high discrimination between affected and unaffected pregnancies. Similarly, the calibration slope was 0.875 (95% CI, 0.831-0.919), demonstrating good agreement between the predicted risk and observed incidence of PE.

CONCLUSION

The competing-risks model provides an effective and reproducible method for third-trimester prediction of term PE. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Cell-free DNA testing of maternal blood in screening for trisomies in twin pregnancy: updated cohort study at 10-14 weeks and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To expand the limited knowledge on cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis of maternal blood for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 in twin pregnancy by updating the data from The Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) on prospective first-trimester screening and those identified in a systematic review of the literature.

METHODS

The FMF data were derived from prospective screening for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 in twin pregnancies at 10 + 0 to 14 + 1 weeks' gestation using the Harmony® prenatal test. A search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library), ClinicalTrials.gov and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (World Health Organization) was carried out to identify all peer-reviewed publications on clinical validation or implementation of maternal cfDNA testing for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 in twin pregnancy, irrespective of gestational age at testing, in which data on pregnancy outcome were provided for at least 85% of the study population. Meta-analysis was performed using the FMF data and data from the studies identified by the literature search. This review was registered in the PROSPERO international database for systematic reviews RESULTS: In the FMF study, cfDNA testing was carried out in 1442 twin pregnancies and a result was obtained, after first or second sampling, in 1367 (94.8%) cases. In 93.1% (1272/1367) of cases, there was prenatal or postnatal karyotyping or birth of phenotypically normal babies; 95 cases were excluded from further analysis either because the pregnancy ended in termination, miscarriage or stillbirth with no known karyotype (n = 56) or there was loss to follow-up (n = 39). In the 1272 pregnancies included in the study, there were 20 cases with trisomy 21, 10 with trisomy 18, two with trisomy 13 and 1240 without trisomy 21, 18 or 13. The cfDNA test classified correctly 19 (95.0%) of the 20 cases of trisomy 21, nine (90.0%) of the 10 cases of trisomy 18, one (50.0%) of the two cases of trisomy 13 and 1235 (99.6%) of the 1240 cases without any of the three trisomies. The literature search identified 12 relevant studies, excluding our papers because their data are included in the current study. In the combined populations of our study and the 12 studies identified by the literature search, there were 137 trisomy-21 and 7507 non-trisomy-21 twin pregnancies; the pooled weighted detection rate (DR) and false-positive rate (FPR) were 99.0% (95% CI, 92.0-99.9%) and 0.02% (95% CI, 0.001-0.43%), respectively. In the combined total of 50 cases of trisomy 18 and 6840 non-trisomy-18 pregnancies, the pooled weighted DR and FPR were 92.8% (95% CI, 77.6-98.0%) and 0.01% (95% CI, 0.00-0.44%), respectively. In the combined total of 11 cases of trisomy 13 and 6290 non-trisomy-13 pregnancies, the pooled weighted DR and FPR were 94.7% (95% CI, 9.14-99.97%) and 0.10% (95% CI, 0.03-0.39%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In twin pregnancy, the reported DR of trisomy 21 by cfDNA testing is high, but lower than that in singleton pregnancy, whereas the FPR appears to be equally low. The number of cases of trisomy 18 and more so trisomy 13 was too small for accurate assessment of the predictive performance of the cfDNA test. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Fetal loss after chorionic villus sampling in twin pregnancy

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the chorionic villus sampling (CVS)-related risk of fetal loss in twin pregnancy after adjustment for chorionicity, nuchal translucency thickness (NT), intertwin discordance in crown-rump length (CRL), maternal demographic characteristics and serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG).

METHODS

This was a multicenter study from eight fetal medicine units in which the leadership were trained at the Harris Birthright Research Centre for Fetal Medicine in London, UK, and in which the protocols for screening, invasive testing and pregnancy management are similar. Data were obtained prospectively from women with twin pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11-13 weeks' gestation. Multivariable logistic regression analysis with backward stepwise elimination was used to examine whether CVS provided a significant independent contribution to the prediction of risk of fetal loss after adjusting for maternal and pregnancy characteristics, including maternal age, racial origin and weight, method of conception, smoking status, parity, chorionicity, intertwin discordance in CRL, fetal NT ≥ 95^th percentile and free β-hCG and PAPP-A multiples of the median. Similarly, within the CVS group, multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the effect of the number of intrauterine needle insertions and size of the needle on the risk of fetal loss.

RESULTS

The study population of 8581 twin pregnancies undergoing ultrasound examination at 11-13 weeks' gestation included 316 dichorionic and 129 monochorionic twins that had CVS. First, in twin pregnancies undergoing CVS, compared to those not undergoing CVS, there was a 2-fold increased risk of fetal loss at < 24 weeks' gestation and of loss at any stage in pregnancy. Second, the factors providing a significant independent contribution to the prediction of miscarriage or fetal loss in twin pregnancy were increased maternal weight, black racial origin, monochorionicity, and more so monoamnionicity, large intertwin discordance in CRL and increased fetal NT, and, in the case of fetal loss at any stage, there was also a contribution from assisted conception and low serum PAPP-A. Third, after adjustment for maternal and pregnancy characteristics, CVS did not provide a significant contribution to the risk of fetal loss. Fourth, in twin pregnancies that had CVS, there was no significant contribution to fetal loss from the number of intrauterine needle insertions or needle size.

CONCLUSION

The 2-fold increased risk of fetal loss following CVS in twin pregnancy can, to a great extent, be explained by maternal and pregnancy characteristics rather than the invasive procedure itself. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Evaluation of the RCOG guideline for the prediction of neonates that are small for gestational age and comparison with the competing risks model

OBJECTIVE

To examine the predictive performance of the relevant guideline by the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists (RCOG) for neonates that are small for gestational age (SGA), and to compare the performance of the RCOG guideline with that of our competing risks model for SGA.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

Obstetric ultrasound departments in two UK maternity hospitals.

POPULATION

A total of 96 678 women with singleton pregnancies attending for routine ultrasound examination at 19-24 weeks of gestation.

METHODS

Risks for SGA for different thresholds were computed, according to the competing risks model using maternal history, second-trimester estimated fetal weight, uterine artery pulsatility index and mean arterial pressure. The detection rates by the RCOG guideline scoring system and the competing risks model for SGA were compared, at the screen positive rate (SPR) derived from the RCOG guideline.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Small for gestational age (SGA), <10th or <3rd percentile, for different gestational age thresholds.

RESULTS

At an SPR of 22.5%, as defined by the RCOG guideline, the competing risks model predicted 56, 72 and 81% of cases of neonates that are SGA, with birthweights of <10th percentile, delivered at ≥37, <37 and <32 weeks of gestation, respectively, which were significantly higher than the respective figures of 36, 44 and 45% achieved by the application of the RCOG guideline. The respective figures for neonates that were SGA with birthweights of <3rd percentile were 66, 79, 85 and 41, 45, 44%.

CONCLUSION

The detection rate for neonates that were SGA with the competing risk approach is almost double than that obtained with the RCOG guideline.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

The competing risks approach for the prediction of SGA performs better than the existing RCOG guideline.

Perinatal outcome of pregnancies with prenatal diagnosis of vasa previa: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To derive accurate estimates of perinatal survival in pregnancies with and without a prenatal diagnosis of vasa previa based on a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A search of MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library was performed to review relevant citations reporting on the perinatal outcomes of pregnancies with vasa previa. We included prospective and retrospective cohort and population studies that provided data on pregnancies with a prenatal diagnosis of vasa previa or cases diagnosed at birth or following postnatal placental examination. Meta-analysis using a random-effects model was performed to derive weighted pooled estimates of perinatal survival (excluding stillbirths and neonatal deaths) and intact perinatal survival (additionally excluding hypoxic morbidity). Incidence rate difference (IRD) meta-analysis was used to estimate the significance of differences in pooled proportions between cases of vasa previa with and those without a prenatal diagnosis. Heterogeneity between studies was estimated using Cochran's Q and the I² statistic.

RESULTS

We included 21 studies reporting on the perinatal outcomes of 683 pregnancies with a prenatal diagnosis of vasa previa. There were three stillbirths (1.01% (95% CI, 0.40-1.87%)), five neonatal deaths (1.19% (95% CI, 0.52-2.12%)) and 675 surviving neonates, resulting in a pooled estimate for perinatal survival of 98.6% (95% CI, 97.6-99.3%). Based on seven studies that included cases of vasa previa with and without a prenatal diagnosis, the pooled perinatal survival in pregnancies without a prenatal diagnosis (61/118) was 72.1% (95% CI, 50.6-89.4%) vs 98.6% (95% CI, 96.7-99.7%) in cases with a prenatal diagnosis (224/226). Therefore, the risk of perinatal death was 25-fold higher when a diagnosis of vasa previa was not made antenatally, compared with when it was (odds ratio (OR), 25.39 (95% CI, 7.93-81.31); P < 0.0001). Similarly, the risk of hypoxic morbidity was increased 50-fold in cases with vasa previa without a prenatal diagnosis compared with those with a prenatal diagnosis (36/61 vs 5/224; OR, 50.09 (95% CI, 17.33-144.79)). The intact perinatal survival rate in cases of vasa previa without a prenatal diagnosis was significantly lower than in those with a prenatal diagnosis (28.1% (95% CI, 14.1-44.7%) vs 96.7% (95% CI, 93.6-98.8%)) (IRD, 73.4% (95% CI, 53.9-92.7%); Z = -7.4066, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Prenatal diagnosis of vasa previa is associated with a high rate of perinatal survival, whereas lack of an antenatal diagnosis significantly increases the risk of perinatal death and hypoxic morbidity. Further research should be undertaken to investigate strategies for incorporating prenatal screening for vasa previa into routine clinical practice. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Impact of prospective measurement of outflow tracts in prediction of coarctation of the aorta

OBJECTIVES

Prenatal diagnosis of coarctation of the aorta (CoA) is associated with reduced mortality and morbidity, however, accurate prenatal prediction remains challenging. To date, studies have used retrospective measurements of the outflow tracts to evaluate their potential to predict CoA. Our primary objective was to evaluate prospectively acquired measurements of the outflow tracts in fetuses with prenatally suspected CoA. A secondary aim was to report the postnatal prevalence of bicuspid aortic valve in this cohort.

METHODS

Pregnancies with suspicion of isolated CoA and with a minimum of 6 months' postnatal follow-up available were identified from the cardiac database of a tertiary fetal cardiology center in the UK, between January 2002 and December 2017. Measurement of the aortic valve, pulmonary valve, distal transverse aortic arch (DTAA) and arterial duct (AD) diameters were undertaken routinely in fetuses with suspected CoA during the study period. Z-scores were computed using published reference ranges based on > 7000 fetuses from our own unit.

RESULTS

Of 149 pregnancies with prenatally suspected CoA included in the study, CoA was confirmed within 6 months after birth in 77/149 (51.7%) cases. DTAA diameter Z-score and the Z-score of second-trimester DTAA/AD diameter ratio were smaller in fetuses with postnatally confirmed CoA than those in false-positive cases (-2.8 vs -1.9; P = 0.039 and -3.13 vs -2.61; P = 0.005, respectively). Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that the Z-scores of DTAA and AD diameters were the only significant predictors of postnatal CoA (P = 0.001). Bicuspid aortic valve was identified in 30% of the false-positive cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Measurement of DTAA and AD diameter Z-scores can be used to ascertain risk for postnatal CoA in a selected cohort. The high incidence of bicuspid aortic valve in false-positive cases merits further study with respect to both etiology and longer-term significance. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Diagnosis of major heart defects by routine first-trimester ultrasound examination: association with increased nuchal translucency, tricuspid regurgitation and abnormal flow in ductus venosus

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between fetal major heart defects and increased nuchal translucency thickness (NT), tricuspid regurgitation and abnormal flow in the ductus venosus in a large population of singleton pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11-13 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of prospectively collected data from singleton pregnancies attending for a routine ultrasound scan at 11-13 weeks' gestation, which included examination of fetal anatomy, measurement of NT and assessment of blood flow across the tricuspid valve and in the ductus venosus, according to a standardized protocol. The incidence of fetal NT ≥ 95^th and ≥ 99^th percentiles, tricuspid regurgitation and reversed a-wave in the ductus venosus in fetuses with and those without a major heart defect was determined and the performance of each marker and their combination in the detection of major heart defects was calculated.

RESULTS

The study population of 93 209 pregnancies with no apparent chromosomal abnormality included 211 (0.23%) with a fetal major heart defect and 92 998 morphologically normal neonates. In 113 (53.6%) cases with a major heart defect, the diagnosis was made at the 11-13-week scan, in 82 (38.9%) at the 18-24-week scan, in 10 (4.7%) at the third-trimester scan and in six (2.8%) postnatally. At the 11-13-week scan, we diagnosed all cases of tricuspid or pulmonary atresia and polyvalvular dysplasia, > 90% of cases of hypoplastic left heart syndrome or atrioventricular septal defect, about 60% of complex heart defects and cases of left atrial isomerism (interrupted inferior vena cava with normal intracardiac anatomy), 30-40% of cases of tetralogy of Fallot and arch abnormalities, 25% of tricuspid valve abnormalities and about 15% of cases of transposition of the great arteries, but none of aortic or pulmonary stenosis or common arterial trunk. Fetal NT ≥ 95^th or ≥ 99^th percentile, tricuspid regurgitation or abnormal ductus venosus flow was observed in 77 (36.5%), 45 (21.3%), 61 (28.9%) and 58 (27.5%) fetuses with a major heart defect, respectively, and in 5678 (6.1%), 857 (0.9%), 1136 (1.2%) and 1644 (1.8%) of those without a heart defect. Any one of NT ≥ 95^th percentile, tricuspid regurgitation or abnormal flow in the ductus venosus was found in 117 (55.5%; 95% CI, 48.5-62.3%) fetuses with a heart defect and in 8166 (8.8%; 95% CI, 8.6-9.0%) of those without a heart defect. Any one of NT ≥ 99^th percentile or the other two markers was found in 99 (46.9%; 95% CI, 40.0-53.9%) fetuses with a heart defect and in 3517 (3.8%; 95% CI, 3.7-3.9%) of those without a heart defect.

CONCLUSION

At 11-13 weeks' gestation, measurement of fetal NT and assessment of flow across the tricuspid valve and in the ductus venosus can lead to early diagnosis of major heart defect. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prevention of stillbirth: impact of two-stage screening for vasa previa

OBJECTIVES

To examine the feasibility and effectiveness of a two-stage ultrasound screening strategy for detection of vasa previa and to estimate the potential impact of screening on prevention of stillbirth.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of data from prospective screening for vasa previa in singleton pregnancies, undertaken at the Fetal Medicine Unit at Medway Maritime Hospital, UK, between 2012 and 2018. Women booked for prenatal care and delivery in our hospital had routine ultrasound examinations at 11-13 and 20-22 weeks' gestation. Those with velamentous cord insertion at the inferior part of the placenta at the first-trimester scan and those with low-lying placenta at the second-trimester scan were classified as high-risk for vasa previa and had transvaginal sonography searching specifically for vasa previa, at the time of the 20-22-week scan. The management and outcome of cases with suspected vasa previa is described. We excluded cases of miscarriage or termination at < 24 weeks' gestation.

RESULTS

The study population of 26 830 singleton pregnancies included 21 (0.08%; 1 in 1278) with vasa previa. In all cases of vasa previa, the diagnosis was made at the 20-22-week scan and confirmed postnatally by gross and histological examination of the placenta. At the 11-13-week scan, cord insertion was classified as central in 25 071 (93.4%) cases, marginal in 1680 (6.3%), and velamentous in 79 (0.3%). In 16 (76.2%) of the 21 cases of vasa previa, cord insertion at the first-trimester scan was classified as velamentous at the inferior part of the placenta, in two cases (9.5%) as marginal and in three cases (14.3%) as central. The 21 cases of vasa previa were managed on an outpatient basis with serial scans for measurement of cervical length and elective Cesarean section at 34 weeks' gestation; all babies were liveborn but there was one neonatal death. In the study population, there were 83 stillbirths, none of which had evidence of vasa previa on postnatal examination. On the assumption that, if we had not diagnosed prenatally all 21 cases of vasa previa in our population, half of these cases would have resulted in stillbirth, then the potential impact of screening is prevention of 10.6% (10/94) of stillbirths.

CONCLUSION

A two-stage strategy of screening for vasa previa can be incorporated into routine clinical practice, and such a strategy could potentially reduce the rate of stillbirth. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Diagnosis of fetal defects in twin pregnancies at routine 11-13-week ultrasound examination

OBJECTIVES

To examine the performance of the routine 11-13-week scan in detecting fetal defects in twin pregnancies and to examine if, in pregnancies with a fetal defect, compared to those with normal fetuses, there is increased incidence of nuchal translucency thickness (NT) ≥ 95^th and ≥ 99^th percentiles or intertwin discordance in crown-rump length (CRL) ≥ 10% and ≥ 15%.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data in twin pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination for fetal anatomy, according to standardized protocols, at 11-13 weeks' gestation between 2002 and 2019. Pregnancies with known chromosomal abnormality were excluded. The final diagnosis of fetal defect was based on the results of postnatal examination in cases of live birth and on the findings of the last ultrasound examination in cases of pregnancy termination, miscarriage or stillbirth. The performance of the 11-13-week scan in the detection of fetal defects was determined.

RESULTS

The study population of 6366 twin pregnancies with two live fetuses at 11-13 weeks' gestation included 4979 (78.2%) dichorionic (DC) and 1387 (21.8%) monochorionic (MC) twin pregnancies. The main findings were: first, the overall incidence of fetal defects was higher in MC than in DC twins (2.8% vs 1.3%); second, the proportion of defects diagnosed in the first trimester was higher in MC than in DC twins (52.6% vs 27.1%); third, the pattern of defects in relation to detectability at the 11-13-week scan (always detectable, sometimes detectable and never detectable) was similar to that reported previously in singleton pregnancies; fourth, always-detectable defects included acrania, alobar holoprosencephaly, encephalocele, pentalogy of Cantrell, exomphalos, body-stalk anomaly, twin reversed arterial perfusion sequence and conjoined twins; fifth, the incidence of fetal NT ≥ 95^th percentile was higher in those with than in those without a defect (16.5% vs 4.5% in DC twins and 19.2% vs 5.9% in MC twins) and this was also true for NT ≥ 99^th percentile (8.3% vs 1.0% in DC twins and 15.4% vs 2.0% in MC twins); and sixth, the incidence of CRL discordance ≥ 10% was higher in those with than in those without a defect (20.2% vs 7.9% in DC twins and 33.8% vs 9.3% in MC twins) and this was also true for CRL discordance ≥ 15% (10.1% vs 1.9% in DC twins and 28.2% vs 2.8% in MC twins).

CONCLUSIONS

First, fetal defects are more common in MC than in DC twin pregnancies. Second, first-trimester detection of fetal defects in DC twin pregnancies is similar to that in singleton pregnancies. Third, first-trimester detectability of defects in MC twins is higher than in DC twins. Fourth, in twin pregnancies with a fetal defect, there is higher intertwin discordance in CRL and incidence of increased NT, but the predictive performance of screening by these markers is poor. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of different methods of measuring angle of progression in prediction of labor outcome

OBJECTIVES

First, to compare the manual sagittal and parasagittal and automated parasagittal methods of measuring the angle of progression (AoP) by transperineal ultrasound during labor, and, second, to develop models for the prediction of time to delivery and need for Cesarean section (CS) for failure to progress (FTP) in a population of patients undergoing induction of labor.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of transperineal ultrasound in a cohort of 512 women with a singleton pregnancy undergoing induction of labor. A random selection of 50 stored images was assessed for inter- and intraobserver reliability of AoP measurements using the manual sagittal and parasagittal and automated parasagittal methods. In cases of vaginal delivery, univariate linear, multiple linear and quantile regression analyses were performed to predict time to delivery. Univariate and multivariate binomial logistic regression analyses were performed to predict CS for FTP in the first stage of labor.

RESULTS

The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for the manual parasagittal method for a single observer was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.95-0.98) and for two observers it was 0.96 (95% CI, 0.93-0.98), indicating good reliability. The ICC for the sagittal method for a single observer was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.88-0.96) and for two observers it was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.58-0.84), indicating moderate reliability for a single observer and poor reliability between two observers. Bland-Altman analysis demonstrated narrower limits of agreement for the manual parasagittal approach than for the sagittal approach for both a single and two observers. The automated parasagittal method failed to capture an image in 19% of cases. The mean difference in AoP measurements between the sagittal and manual parasagittal methods was 11°. In pregnancies resulting in vaginal delivery, 54% of the variation in time to delivery was explained in a model combining parity, epidural and syntocinon use during labor and the sonographic findings of fetal head position and AoP. In the prediction of CS for FTP in the first stage of labor, a model which combined maternal factors with the sonographic measurements of AoP and estimated fetal weight was superior to one utilizing maternal factors alone (area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve, 0.80 vs 0.76).

CONCLUSIONS

First, the method of measuring AoP with the greatest reliability is the manual parasagittal technique and future research should focus on this technique. Second, over half of the variation in time to vaginal delivery can be explained by a model that combines maternal factors, pregnancy characteristics and ultrasound findings. Third, the ability of AoP to provide clinically useful prediction of CS for FTP in the first stage of labor is limited. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Value of routine ultrasound examination at 35-37 weeks' gestation in diagnosis of non-cephalic presentation

OBJECTIVE

Undiagnosed non-cephalic presentation in labor carries increased risks for both the mother and baby. Routine pregnancy care based on maternal abdominal palpation fails to detect the majority of cases of non-cephalic presentation. The aim of this study was to report the incidence of non-cephalic presentation at a routine scan at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation and the subsequent management of such pregnancies.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data in 45 847 singleton pregnancies that had undergone routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. Patients with breech or transverse/oblique presentation were divided into two groups; first, those who would have elective Cesarean section for fetal or maternal indications other than the abnormal presentation, and, second, those who would potentially require external cephalic version (ECV). The latter group was reassessed after 1-2 weeks and, if there was persistence of abnormal presentation, the parents were offered the option of ECV or elective Cesarean section at 38-40 weeks' gestation. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was carried out to determine which of the factors from maternal and pregnancy characteristics provided a significant contribution in the prediction of, first, non-cephalic presentation at the 35 + 0 to 36 + 6-week scan, second, successful ECV from non-cephalic to cephalic presentation, and, third, spontaneous rotation from non-cephalic to cephalic presentation that persisted until delivery.

RESULTS

First, at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks, the fetal presentation was cephalic in 43 416 (94.7%) pregnancies, breech in 1987 (4.3%) and transverse or oblique in 444 (1.0%). Second, multivariable analysis demonstrated that the risk of non-cephalic presentation increased with increasing maternal age and weight, decreasing height and earlier gestational age at scan, was higher in the presence of placenta previa, oligohydramnios or polyhydramnios and in nulliparous than parous women, and was lower in women of South Asian or mixed racial origin than in white women. Third, 22% of cases of non-cephalic presentation were not eligible for ECV because of planned Cesarean section for indications other than the malpresentation. Fourth, of those eligible for ECV, only 48.5% (646/1332) agreed to the procedure, which was successful in 39.0% (252/646) of cases. Fifth, the chance of successful ECV increased with increasing maternal age and was lower in nulliparous than parous women. Sixth, in 33.9% (738/2179) of pregnancies with non-cephalic presentation in which successful ECV was not carried out, there was subsequent spontaneous rotation to cephalic presentation. Seventh, the chance of spontaneous rotation from non-cephalic to cephalic presentation increased with increasing interval between the scan and delivery, decreased with increasing birth-weight percentile, was higher in women of black than those of white racial origin, if presentation was transverse or oblique rather than breech and if there was polyhydramnios, and was lower in nulliparous than parous women and in the presence of placenta previa. Eighth, in 109 (0.3%) cephalic presentations, there was subsequent rotation to non-cephalic presentation and, in 41% of these, the diagnosis was made during labor. Ninth, of the total 2431 cases of non-cephalic presentation at the time of the scan, presentation at birth was cephalic in 985 (40.5%); in 738 (74.9%) this was due to spontaneous rotation and in 247 (25.1%) this was due to successful ECV. Tenth, prediction of non-cephalic presentation at the 35 + 0 to 36 + 6-week scan and successful ECV from maternal and pregnancy factors was poor, but prediction of spontaneous rotation from non-cephalic to cephalic presentation that persisted until delivery was moderately good and this could be incorporated in the counseling of women prior to ECV.

CONCLUSIONS

The problem of unexpected non-cephalic presentation in labor can, to a great extent, be overcome by a routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. The incidence of non-cephalic presentation at the 35 + 0 to 36 + 6-week scan was about 5%, but, in about 40% of these cases, the presentation at birth was cephalic, mainly due to subsequent spontaneous rotation and, to a lesser extent, as a consequence of successful ECV. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Value of routine ultrasound examination at 35-37 weeks' gestation in diagnosis of fetal abnormalities

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the potential value of routine ultrasound examination at 35-37 weeks' gestation in the diagnosis of previously unknown fetal abnormalities.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 52 400 singleton pregnancies attending for a routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation; all pregnancies had a previous scan at 18-24 weeks and 47 214 also had a scan at 11-13 weeks. We included pregnancies resulting in live birth or stillbirth but excluded those with known chromosomal abnormality. Abnormalities were classified according to the affected major organ system, and the type and incidence of new abnormalities were determined.

RESULTS

In the study population, the incidence of fetal abnormality was 1.9% (995/52 400), including 674 (67.7%) that had been diagnosed previously during the first and/or second trimester, 247 (24.8%) that were detected for the first time at 35-37 weeks and 74 (7.4%) that were detected for the first time postnatally. The most common abnormalities that were diagnosed during the first and/or second trimester and that were also observed at 35-37 weeks included ventricular septal defect, talipes, unilateral renal agenesis and/or pelvic kidney, hydronephrosis, duplex kidney, unilateral multicystic kidney, congenital pulmonary airway malformation, ventriculomegaly, cleft lip and palate, polydactyly and abdominal cyst or gastroschisis. The most common abnormalities first seen at 35-37 weeks were hydronephrosis, mild ventriculomegaly, ventricular septal defect, duplex kidney, ovarian cyst and arachnoid cyst. The incidence of abnormalities first seen at 35-37 weeks was 0.5% and those that were detected exclusively for the first time at this examination were ovarian cyst, microcephaly, achondroplasia, dacryocystocele and hematocolpos. The incidence of abnormalities first seen postnatally was 0.1% and the most common were isolated cleft palate, polydactyly or syndactyly and ambiguous genitalia or hypospadias; prenatal examination of the genitalia was not a compulsory part of the protocol.

CONCLUSIONS

A high proportion of fetal abnormalities are detected for the first time during a routine ultrasound examination at 35-37 weeks' gestation. Such diagnosis and subsequent management, including selection of timing and place for delivery and postnatal investigations, could potentially improve postnatal outcome. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of adverse perinatal outcome by serum placental growth factor and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 in women undergoing induction of labor

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the additive value of serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), measured within 24 h prior to induction of labor, to the performance of screening for adverse perinatal outcome provided by maternal risk factors and the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR).

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of 795 singleton pregnancies undergoing induction of labor at ≥ 37 weeks' gestation. Before induction of labor, Doppler ultrasound was used to measure the pulsatility index (PI) in the umbilical artery (UA) and fetal middle cerebral artery (MCA) and maternal blood was obtained for measurement of serum PlGF and sFlt-1. The measured UA-PI, MCA-PI and their ratio (CPR) were converted to multiples of the median (MoM) after adjustment for gestational age, and the measured PlGF and sFlt-1 were converted to MoM after adjustment for gestational age, maternal characteristics and the machine used for the assays. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine factors that provided a significant contribution in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome, defined as the presence of any one of Cesarean section for non-reassuring fetal status in labor, umbilical arterial or venous cord blood pH ≤ 7 and ≤ 7.1, respectively, 5-min Apgar score < 7 or admission to the neonatal intensive care unit for ≥ 24 h. The detection rate (DR) and false-positive rate (FPR) in screening for adverse perinatal outcome were determined.

RESULTS

In pregnancies with adverse perinatal outcome, compared to those without, median serum PlGF MoM was lower (0.44; interquartile range (IQR), 0.30-0.82 vs 0.60; IQR, 0.36-1.07; P = 0.003), but median sFlt-1 MoM was not significantly different (P = 0.080). Multivariable regression analysis demonstrated that, in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome, there was significant contribution from maternal risk factors and CPR MoM but not PlGF MoM or sFlt-1 MoM. The performance of screening for adverse perinatal outcome achieved by maternal risk factors alone (DR of 28.9% at FPR of 10%) was not improved by the addition of CPR (DR of 33.8% at FPR of 10%) (area under the curve, 0.702; 95% CI, 0.654-0.750 vs 0.712; 95% CI, 0.664-0.760; P = 0.233).

CONCLUSION

Serum PlGF and sFlt-1, measured within 24 h prior to induction of labor, do not provide a significant additional contribution to maternal risk factors in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Diagnosis of fetal non-chromosomal abnormalities on routine ultrasound examination at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the performance of the routine 11-13-week scan in detecting fetal non-chromosomal abnormalities.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of prospectively collected data from 100 997 singleton pregnancies attending for a routine ultrasound examination of fetal anatomy, performed according to a standardized protocol, at 11-13 weeks' gestation. All continuing pregnancies had an additional scan at 18-24 weeks and 71 754 had a scan at either 30-34 or 35-37 weeks. The final diagnosis of fetal abnormality was based on the results of postnatal examination in cases of live birth and on the findings of the last ultrasound examination in cases of pregnancy termination, miscarriage or stillbirth. The performance of the 11-13-week scan in the detection of fetal abnormalities was determined.

RESULTS

The study population contained 1720 (1.7%) pregnancies with a fetal abnormality, including 474 (27.6%) detected on the first-trimester scan, 926 (53.8%) detected on the second-trimester scan and 320 (18.6%) detected in the third trimester or postnatally. At 11-13 weeks' gestation, we diagnosed all cases of acrania, alobar holoprosencephaly, encephalocele, tricuspid or pulmonary atresia, pentalogy of Cantrell, ectopia cordis, exomphalos, gastroschisis and body-stalk anomaly and > 50% of cases of open spina bifida, hypoplastic left heart syndrome, atrioventricular septal defect, complex heart defect, left atrial isomerism (interrupted inferior vena cava with normal intracardiac anatomy), lower urinary tract obstruction, absence of extremities, fetal akinesia deformation sequence and lethal skeletal dysplasia. Common abnormalities that were detected in < 10% of cases at 11-13 weeks included ventriculomegaly, agenesis of the corpus callosum, isolated cleft lip, congenital pulmonary airway malformation, ventricular septal defect, abdominal cysts, unilateral renal agenesis or multicystic kidney, hydronephrosis, duplex kidney, hypospadias and talipes.

CONCLUSIONS

A routine 11-13-week scan, carried out according to a standardized protocol, can identify many severe non-chromosomal fetal abnormalities. A summary statistic of the performance of the first-trimester scan is futile because some abnormalities are always detectable, whereas others are either non-detectable or sometimes detectable. To maximize prenatal detection of abnormalities, additional scans in both the second and third trimesters are necessary. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Two-stage approach for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate and adverse perinatal outcome by routine ultrasound examination at 35-37 weeks' gestation

BACKGROUND

Justification of prenatal screening for small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetuses near term is based on, first, evidence that such fetuses/neonates are at increased risk of stillbirth and adverse perinatal outcome, and, second, the expectation that these risks can be reduced by medical interventions, such as early delivery. However, there are no randomized studies demonstrating that routine screening for SGA fetuses and appropriate interventions in the high-risk group can reduce adverse perinatal outcome. Before such meaningful studies can be undertaken, it is essential that the best approach for effective identification of SGA neonates is determined, and that the contribution of SGA neonates to the overall rate of adverse perinatal outcome is established. In a previous study of pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation, we found that, first, screening by estimated fetal weight (EFW) < 10^th percentile provided poor prediction of SGA neonates and, second, prediction of > 85% of SGA neonates requires use of EFW < 40^th percentile.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the contribution of SGA fetuses to the overall rate of adverse perinatal outcome and, to propose a two-stage approach for prediction of a SGA neonate at routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 45 847 singleton pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. First, we examined the relationship between birth-weight percentile and adverse perinatal outcome, defined as stillbirth, neonatal death or admission to the neonatal unit for ≥ 48 h. Second, we used a two-stage approach for prediction of a SGA neonate and adverse perinatal outcome; in the first stage, fetal biometry was used to distinguish between pregnancies at very low risk (EFW ≥ 40^th percentile) and those at increased risk (EFW < 40^th percentile) and, in the second stage, the pregnancies with EFW < 40^th percentile were stratified into high-, intermediate- and low-risk groups based on the results of EFW and pulsatility index in the uterine arteries, umbilical artery and fetal middle cerebral artery. Different percentiles of EFW and Doppler indices were used to define each risk category, and the performance of screening for a SGA neonate and adverse perinatal outcome in pregnancies delivered at ≤ 2, 2.1-4 and > 4 weeks after assessment was determined. We propose that the high-risk group would require monitoring from initial assessment to delivery, the intermediate-risk group would require monitoring from 2 weeks after initial assessment to delivery, the low-risk group would require monitoring from 4 weeks after initial assessment to delivery, and the very low-risk group would not require any further reassessment.

RESULTS

First, although in neonates with low birth weight (< 10^th percentile) the risk of adverse perinatal outcome is increased, 84% of adverse perinatal events occur in the group with birth weight ≥ 10^th percentile. Second, in screening by EFW < 10^th percentile, the predictive performance for a SGA neonate is modest for those born at ≤ 2 weeks after assessment (83% and 69% for neonates with birth weight < 3^rd and < 10^th percentiles, respectively), but poor for those born at 2.1-4 weeks (65% and 45%, respectively) and > 4 weeks (40% and 30%, respectively) after assessment. Third, improved performance of screening, especially for those delivered at > 2 weeks after assessment, is potentially achieved by a proposed new approach for stratifying pregnancies into management groups based on findings of EFW and Doppler indices (prediction of birth weight < 3^rd and < 10^th percentiles for deliveries at ≤ 2, 2.1-4 and > 4 weeks after assessment: 89% and 75%, 83% and 74%, and 88% and 82%, respectively). Fourth, the predictive performance for adverse perinatal outcome of EFW < 10^th percentile is very poor (26%, 9% and 5% for deliveries at ≤ 2, 2.1-4 and > 4 weeks after assessment, respectively) and this is improved by the proposed new approach (31%, 22% and 29%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents an approach for stratifying pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation into four management groups based on findings of EFW and Doppler indices. This approach potentially has a higher predictive performance for a SGA neonate and adverse perinatal outcome than that of screening by EFW < 10^th percentile. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk of miscarriage following amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling: systematic review of literature and updated meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the procedure-related risk of miscarriage after amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling (CVS) based on a systematic review of the literature and an updated meta-analysis.

METHODS

A search of MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library was carried out to identify studies reporting complications following CVS or amniocentesis. Eligible for inclusion were large controlled studies reporting data for pregnancy loss prior to 24 weeks' gestation. Study authors were contacted when required to identify additional necessary data. Data for cases that had an invasive procedure and controls were inputted into contingency tables and the risk of miscarriage was estimated for each study. Summary statistics based on a random-effects model were calculated after taking into account the weighting for each study included in the systematic review. Procedure-related risk of miscarriage was estimated as a weighted risk difference from the summary statistics for cases and controls. Subgroup analyses were performed according to the similarity in risk levels for chromosomal abnormality between the invasive-testing and control groups. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I² statistic. Egger's bias was estimated to assess reporting bias in published studies.

RESULTS

The electronic search yielded 2943 potential citations, from which 12 controlled studies for amniocentesis and seven for CVS were selected for inclusion in the systematic review. A total of 580 miscarriages occurred following 63 723 amniocentesis procedures, resulting in a weighted risk of pregnancy loss of 0.91% (95% CI, 0.73-1.09%). In the control group, there were 1726 miscarriages in 330 469 pregnancies with a loss rate of 0.58% (95% CI, 0.47-0.70%). The weighted procedure-related risk of miscarriage following amniocentesis was 0.30% (95% CI, 0.11-0.49%; I²  = 70.1%). A total of 163 miscarriages occurred following 13 011 CVS procedures, resulting in a risk of pregnancy loss of 1.39% (95% CI, 0.76-2.02%). In the control group, there were 1946 miscarriages in 232 680 pregnancies with a loss rate of 1.23% (95% CI, 0.86-1.59%). The weighted procedure-related risk of miscarriage following CVS was 0.20% (95% CI, -0.13 to 0.52%; I²  = 52.7%). However, when studies including only women with similar risk profiles for chromosomal abnormality in the intervention and control groups were considered, the procedure-related risk for amniocentesis was 0.12% (95% CI, -0.05 to 0.30%; I²  = 44.1%) and for CVS it was -0.11% (95% CI, -0.29 to 0.08%; I²  = 0%).

CONCLUSIONS

The procedure-related risks of miscarriage following amniocentesis and CVS are lower than currently quoted to women. The risk appears to be negligible when these interventions were compared to control groups of the same risk profile. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Procedure-related risk of miscarriage following chorionic villus sampling and amniocentesis

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the procedure-related risks of miscarriage following chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and amniocentesis in a large unselected screened population, and to determine whether these risks are consistent with those reported in systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study carried out on data obtained from a large fetal medicine unit in the UK between January 2009 and May 2018. We included all women with singleton pregnancy who booked for pregnancy care at our unit before 20 weeks' gestation, after excluding those with multiple pregnancy, major fetal defect, pregnancy termination and loss to follow-up. We estimated the risk of miscarriage in women who underwent a CVS or amniocentesis as well as in those who did not have an invasive procedure. The procedure-related risk of miscarriage was estimated as risk difference (95% CI) between the two groups. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to derive odds ratios (95% CI) and determine which maternal and pregnancy characteristics provided a significant contribution in the prediction of miscarriage and whether CVS or amniocentesis provided a significant independent contribution.

RESULTS

During the study period, 45 120 singleton pregnancies were booked for pregnancy care at our hospital, of which 1546 had an invasive procedure. We excluded 1429 (3.2%) pregnancies due to fetal defects, termination of pregnancy or missing outcomes. Of the 43 691 pregnancies included in the study population, 861 underwent CVS and 375 amniocentesis. In pregnancies that underwent CVS, the risk of miscarriage was 1.5% (13/861), compared with 1.2% (476/39 152) in pregnancies that had first-trimester combined screening and did not have an invasive procedure (P = 0.437). In pregnancies that underwent an amniocentesis, the risk of miscarriage was 0.8% (3/375), compared with 1.2% (491/42 463) in those that did not undergo an invasive procedure (P = 0.520). Univariate and multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that there was no significant contribution in the prediction of the risk of miscarriage from CVS (P = 0.399 and P = 0.592, respectively) or amniocentesis (P = 0.543 and P = 0.550, respectively). The risk of procedure-related loss attributed to CVS was 0.29% (95% CI, -0.53 to 1.12%) and that following amniocentesis was -0.36% (95% CI, -1.26 to 0.55%), which was not significantly different from the risk in women who did not have any procedure.

CONCLUSIONS

The procedure-related risks of miscarriage following CVS and amniocentesis in our study are considerably lower than those currently quoted and are consistent with the estimates of such risks reported by systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of large-for-gestational-age neonate by routine third-trimester ultrasound

OBJECTIVES

First, to evaluate and compare the performance of routine ultrasonographic estimated fetal weight (EFW) and fetal abdominal circumference (AC) at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 and 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation in the prediction of a large-for-gestational-age (LGA) neonate born at ≥ 37 weeks' gestation. Second, to assess the additive value of fetal growth velocity between 32 and 36 weeks' gestation to the performance of EFW at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation for prediction of a LGA neonate. Third, to define the predictive performance for a LGA neonate of different EFW cut-offs on routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. Fourth, to propose a two-stage strategy for identifying pregnancies with a LGA fetus that may benefit from iatrogenic delivery during the 38^th gestational week.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study. First, data from 21 989 singleton pregnancies that had undergone routine ultrasound examination at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks' gestation and 45 847 that had undergone routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks were used to compare the predictive performance of EFW and AC for a LGA neonate with birth weight > 90^th and > 97^th percentiles born at ≥ 37 weeks' gestation. Second, data from 14 497 singleton pregnancies that had undergone routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation and had a previous scan at 30 + 0 to 34 + 6 weeks were used to determine, through multivariable logistic regression analysis, whether addition of growth velocity, defined as the difference in EFW Z-score or AC Z-score between the early and late third-trimester scans divided by the time interval between the scans, improved the performance of EFW at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks in the prediction of delivery of a LGA neonate at ≥ 37 weeks' gestation. Third, in the database of the 45 847 pregnancies that had undergone routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation, the screen-positive and detection rates for a LGA neonate born at ≥ 37 weeks' gestation and ≤ 10 days after the initial scan were calculated for different EFW percentile cut-offs between the 50^th and 90^th percentiles.

RESULTS

First, the areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curves (AUC) of screening for a LGA neonate were significantly higher using EFW Z-score than AC Z-score and at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 than at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks' gestation (P < 0.001 for all). Second, the performance of screening for a LGA neonate achieved by EFW Z-score at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks was not significantly improved by addition of EFW growth velocity or AC growth velocity. Third, in screening by EFW > 90^th percentile at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation, the predictive performance for a LGA neonate born at ≥ 37 weeks' gestation was modest (65% and 46% for neonates with birth weight > 97^th and > 90^th percentiles, respectively, at a screen-positive rate of 10%), but the performance was better for prediction of a LGA neonate born ≤ 10 days after the scan (84% and 71% for neonates with birth weight > 97^th and > 90^th percentiles, respectively, at a screen-positive rate of 11%). Fourth, screening by EFW > 70^th percentile at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation predicted 91% and 82% of LGA neonates with birth weight > 97^th and > 90^th percentiles, respectively, born at ≥ 37 weeks' gestation, at a screen-positive rate of 32%, and the respective values of screening by EFW > 85^th percentile for prediction of a LGA neonate born ≤ 10 days after the scan were 88%, 81% and 15%. On the basis of these results, it was proposed that routine fetal biometry at 36 weeks' gestation is a screening rather than diagnostic test for fetal macrosomia and that EFW > 70^th percentile should be used to identify pregnancies in need of another scan at 38 weeks, at which those with EFW > 85^th percentile should be considered for iatrogenic delivery during the 38^th  week.

CONCLUSIONS

First, the predictive performance for a LGA neonate by routine ultrasonographic examination during the third trimester is higher if the scan is carried out at 36 than at 32 weeks, the method of screening is EFW than fetal AC, the outcome measure is birth weight > 97^th than > 90^th percentile and if delivery occurs within 10 days than at any stage after assessment. Second, prediction of a LGA neonate by EFW > 90^th percentile is modest and this study presents a two-stage strategy for maximizing the prenatal prediction of a LGA neonate. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Maternal and neonatal complications of fetal macrosomia: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine accurate estimates of risks of maternal and neonatal complications in pregnancies with fetal macrosomia by performing a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and The Cochrane Library was performed to identify relevant studies reporting on maternal and/or neonatal complications in pregnancies with macrosomia having a birth weight (BW) > 4000 g and/or those with birth weight > 4500 g. Prospective and retrospective cohort and population-based studies that provided data regarding both cases and controls were included. Maternal outcomes assessed were emergency Cesarean section (CS), postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) and obstetric anal sphincter injury (OASIS). Neonatal outcomes assessed were shoulder dystocia, obstetric brachial plexus injury (OBPI) and birth fractures. Meta-analysis using a random-effects model was used to estimate weighted pooled estimates of summary statistics (odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI) for each complication, according to birth weight. Heterogeneity between studies was estimated using Cochran's Q, I2 statistic and funnel plots.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies reporting data on maternal and/or neonatal complications in pregnancy with macrosomia were included. In pregnancies with macrosomia having a BW > 4000 g, there was an increased risk of the maternal complications: emergency CS, PPH and OASIS, which had OR (95% CI) of 1.98 (1.80-2.18), 2.05 (1.90-2.22) and 1.91 (1.56-2.33), respectively. The corresponding values for pregnancies with BW > 4500 g were: 2.55 (2.33-2.78), 3.15 (2.14-4.63) and 2.56 (1.97-3.32). Similarly, in pregnancies with a BW > 4000 g, there was an increased risk of the neonatal complications: shoulder dystocia, OBPI and birth fractures, which had OR (95% CI) of 9.54 (6.76-13.46), 11.03 (7.06-17.23) and 6.43 (3.67-11.28), respectively. The corresponding values for pregnancies with a BW > 4500 g were: 15.64 (11.31-21.64), 19.87 (12.19-32.40) and 8.16 (2.75-24.23).

CONCLUSION

Macrosomia is associated with serious maternal and neonatal adverse outcomes. This study provides accurate estimates of these risks, which can be used for decisions on pregnancy management. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Maternal and neonatal complications of fetal macrosomia: cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the risks of maternal and neonatal complications in pregnancies with macrosomia.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study conducted at a large maternity unit in the UK between January 2009 and December 2016. The incidence of maternal and neonatal complications in pregnancies with macrosomia, defined as birth weight (BW) > 4000 g, and in those with severe macrosomia, defined as BW > 4500 g, was compared with that in pregnancies with normal BW (2500-4000 g). Regression analysis was performed to determine odds ratios (ORs) for complications in macrosomic pregnancies compared to those with normal BW.

RESULTS

The study population of 35 548 pregnancies included 4522 (12.7%) with macrosomia, of which 643 (1.8%) had severe macrosomia, and 31 026 (87.3%) with normal BW. In the macrosomia group, the adjusted OR was 3.1 (95% CI, 2.6-3.6) for Cesarean section for failure to progress, 2.4 (95% CI, 2.0-3.0) for severe postpartum hemorrhage, 2.3 (95% CI, 1.9-2.8) for obstetric anal sphincter injury, 10.4 (95% CI, 8.6-12.6) for shoulder dystocia, 28.5 (95% CI, 8.9-90.7) for obstetric brachial plexus injury, 32.3 (95% CI, 3.8-278.2) for birth fractures and 4.4 (95% CI, 2.2-8.8) for hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy. The respective values in pregnancies with severe macrosomia were 4.3 (95% CI, 3.1-6.1), 2.9 (95% CI, 1.9-4.4), 3.1 (95% CI, 1.9-5.1), 28.7 (95% CI, 20.8-39.8), 73.9 (95% CI, 15.1-363.2), 87.2 (95% CI, 7.7-985.0) and 13.8 (95% CI, 5.2-36.8).

CONCLUSION

Macrosomia is associated with serious adverse perinatal outcomes. This study provides accurate estimates of risks to aid in pregnancy management. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fetal intra-abdominal bowel dilation in prediction of complex gastroschisis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate intra-abdominal bowel dilation (IABD) in the prediction of complex gastroschisis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of 174 singleton pregnancies with isolated fetal gastroschisis, resulting in live birth and with available ultrasound images from visits at both 20-22 and 30-32 weeks' gestation. IABD was measured as the greatest transverse diameter of the most dilated intra-abdominal bowel segment, by an operator blinded to postnatal outcome. The distribution of IABD measurements in those with complex and those with simple gastroschisis was determined and the best cut-off value to predict complex gastroschisis was selected using receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), detection rate (DR), false-positive rate (FPR), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were determined.

RESULTS

The study population included 39 (22.4%) cases of complex and 135 (77.6%) cases of simple gastroschisis. In the prediction of complex gastroschisis, the AUC at 20-22 weeks' gestation was 0.742 (95% CI, 0.628-0.856) and the respective value for 30-32 weeks was 0.820 (95% CI, 0.729-0.910). At the IABD cut-off of 7 mm at 20-22 weeks, DR, FPR, PPV and NPV for complex gastroschisis were 61.5%, 6.7%, 72.7% and 89.4%, respectively, and at IABD cut-off of 14 mm at 30-32 weeks, the respective values were 64.9%, 5.9%, 75.0% and 90.7%.

CONCLUSION

Measurement of IABD at 20-22 or at 30-32 weeks' gestation is useful in the prediction of complex gastroschisis. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biomarkers of impaired placentation at 35-37 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the potential value of uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and serum levels of the angiogenic placental growth factor (PlGF) and the antiangiogenic factor soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome in small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and non-SGA neonates at 35-37 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of 19 209 singleton pregnancies attending for a routine hospital visit at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. This visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, sonographic estimation of fetal weight, color Doppler ultrasound for measurement of mean UtA-PI, and measurement of serum concentrations of PlGF and sFlt-1. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was carried out to determine which of the factors from maternal or pregnancy characteristics and measurements of UtA-PI, PlGF and sFlt-1 provided a significant contribution in the prediction of each of four adverse outcome measures: first, stillbirth; second, Cesarean delivery for suspected fetal compromise in labor; third, neonatal death or hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy Grade 2 or 3; and, fourth, admission to the neonatal unit (NNU) for ≥ 48 h. Predicted probabilities from logistic regression analysis were used to construct receiver-operating characteristics curves to assess the performance of screening for these adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

First, 83% of stillbirths, 82% of Cesarean sections for presumed fetal compromise in labor, 91% of cases of neonatal death or hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy and 86% of NNU admissions for ≥ 48 h occurred in pregnancies with a non-SGA neonate. Second, UtA-PI > 95^th percentile, sFlt-1 > 95^th percentile and PlGF < 5^th percentile were associated with increased risk of Cesarean delivery for suspected fetal compromise in labor and NNU admission for ≥ 48 h; the number of stillbirths and cases of neonatal death or hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy was too small to demonstrate significance in the observed differences from cases without these adverse outcomes. Third, multivariable logistic regression analysis demonstrated that, in the prediction of Cesarean delivery for suspected fetal compromise in labor, there was no significant contribution from biomarkers; the prediction of NNU admission for ≥ 48 h by maternal demographic characteristics and medical history was only marginally improved by the addition of sFlt-1 or PlGF. Fourth, for each biomarker, the detection rate of adverse outcome was higher in SGA than in non-SGA neonates, but this increase was accompanied by an increase in false-positive rate. Fifth, the relative risk of UtA-PI > 95^th , sFlt-1 > 95^th and PlGF < 5^th percentiles for most adverse outcomes was < 2.5 in both SGA and non-SGA neonates.

CONCLUSIONS

In pregnancies undergoing routine antenatal assessment at 35-37 weeks' gestation, measurements of UtA-PI, sFlt-1 or PlGF provide poor prediction of adverse perinatal outcome in both SGA and non-SGA fetuses. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

First-trimester screening for trisomies by cfDNA testing of maternal blood in singleton and twin pregnancies: factors affecting test failure

OBJECTIVE

To examine factors affecting the rate of failure to obtain a result from cell-free DNA (cfDNA) testing of maternal blood for fetal trisomies 21, 18 and 13 in singleton and twin pregnancies in the first trimester.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 23 495 singleton and 928 twin pregnancies undergoing screening for fetal trisomy by targeted cfDNA testing at 10 + 0 to 14 + 1 weeks' gestation. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine significant predictors of failure to obtain a result after first sampling.

RESULTS

There was no result from cfDNA testing after first sampling in 3.4% (798/23 495) of singletons, 11.3% (91/806) of dichorionic twins and 4.9% (6/122) of monochorionic twins. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the risk of test failure, first, increased with increasing maternal age (odds ratio (OR), 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04) and weight (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.04-1.05), decreasing gestational age (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.79-0.91), serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) multiples of the median (MoM) (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.49-0.65) and free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) MoM (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.60-0.74), second, was higher in women of black (OR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.33-2.20) and South Asian (OR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.56-2.52) than those of white racial origin, in dichorionic twin than in singleton pregnancy (OR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.34-2.26) and in pregnancies conceived by in-vitro fertilization than in those conceived naturally (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 3.19-4.55) and, third, was lower in parous than in nulliparous women (OR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.55-0.74).

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal age, weight, racial origin and parity, gestational age, dichorionicity, method of conception and serum levels of free β-hCG and PAPP-A are independent predictors of cfDNA test failure. The risk of test failure is higher in dichorionic twin than in singleton pregnancies, mainly because a higher proportion of twins are conceived by in-vitro fertilization and more of the women are nulliparous. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Screening for trisomies by cfDNA testing of maternal blood in twin pregnancy: update of The Fetal Medicine Foundation results and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To report on the routine clinical implementation of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis of maternal blood for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 in twin pregnancy and to define the performance of the test by combining our results with those identified in a systematic review of the literature.

METHODS

The data for the prospective study were derived from screening for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 in twin pregnancies at 10 + 0 to 14 + 1 weeks' gestation. Two populations were included; first, self-referred women to the Fetal Medicine Centre in London or Brugmann University Hospital in Brussels and, second, women selected for the cfDNA test after routine first-trimester combined testing at one of two National Health Service hospitals in England. This dataset was used to determine the performance of screening for the three trisomies. Search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library), ClinicalTrials.gov and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) was carried out to identify all peer-reviewed publications on clinical validation or implementation of maternal cfDNA testing for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 in twin pregnancy. A meta-analysis was then performed using our data and those in the studies identified by the literature search.

RESULTS

In our dataset of 997 twin pregnancies with a cfDNA result and known outcome, the test classified correctly 16 (94.1%) of the 17 cases of trisomy 21, nine (90.0%) of the 10 cases of trisomy 18, one (50.0%) of the two cases of trisomy 13 and 962 (99.4%) of the 968 cases without any of the three trisomies. The literature search identified seven relevant studies, excluding our previous papers because their data are included in the current study. In the combined populations of our study and the seven studies identified by the literature search, there were 56 trisomy-21 and 3718 non-trisomy-21 twin pregnancies; the pooled weighted detection rate (DR) and false-positive rate (FPR) were 98.2% (95% CI, 83.2-99.8%) and 0.05% (95% CI, 0.01-0.26%), respectively. In the combined total of 18 cases of trisomy 18 and 3143 non-trisomy-18 pregnancies, the pooled weighted DR and FPR were 88.9% (95% CI, 64.8-97.2%) and 0.03% (95% CI, 0.00-0.33%), respectively. For trisomy 13, there were only three affected cases and two (66.7%) of these were detected by the cfDNA test at a FPR of 0.19% (5/2569).

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of cfDNA testing for trisomy 21 in twin pregnancy is similar to that reported in singleton pregnancy and is superior to that of the first-trimester combined test or second-trimester biochemical testing. The number of cases of trisomies 18 and 13 is too small for accurate assessment of the predictive performance of the cfDNA test. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Routine ultrasound at 32 vs 36 weeks' gestation: prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate and compare the performance of routine ultrasonographic estimated fetal weight (EFW) and fetal abdominal circumference (AC) at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 and 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation in the prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 21 989 singleton pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks' gestation and 45 847 undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. In each case, the estimated fetal weight (EFW) from measurements of fetal head circumference, AC and femur length was calculated using the Hadlock formula and expressed as a percentile according to The Fetal Medicine Foundation fetal and neonatal population weight charts. The same charts were used for defining a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles. For each gestational-age window, the screen-positive and detection rates, at different EFW percentile cut-offs between the 10^th and 50^th percentiles, were calculated for prediction of delivery of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles within 2 weeks and at any stage after assessment. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curves (AUC) in screening for a SGA neonate by EFW and AC at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 and at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation were compared.

RESULTS

First, the AUCs in screening by EFW for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles delivered within 2 weeks and at any stage after screening at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation were significantly higher than those at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks (P < 0.001). Second, at both 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 and 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks' gestation, the predictive performance for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles born at any stage after screening was significantly higher using EFW Z-score than AC Z-score. Similarly, at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks, but not at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks, the predictive performance for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles born within 2 weeks after screening was significantly higher using EFW Z-score than AC Z-score. Third, screening by EFW < 10^th percentile at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation predicted 70% and 84% of neonates with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles, respectively, born within 2 weeks after assessment, and the respective values for a neonate born at any stage after assessment were 46% and 65%. Fourth, prediction of > 85% of SGA neonates with birth weight < 10^th percentile born at any stage after screening at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation requires use of EFW < 40^th percentile. Screening at this percentile cut-off predicted 95% and 99% of neonates with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles, respectively, born within 2 weeks after assessment, and the respective values for a neonate born at any stage after assessment were 87% and 94%.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive performance for a SGA neonate of routine ultrasonographic examination during the third trimester is higher if, first, the scan is carried out at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation than at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks, second, the method of screening is EFW than fetal AC, third, the outcome measure is birth weight < 3^rd than < 10^th percentile, and, fourth, if delivery occurs within 2 weeks than at any stage after assessment. Prediction of a SGA neonate by EFW < 10^th percentile is modest and prediction of > 85% of cases at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation necessitates use of EFW < 40^th percentile. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates at 35-37 weeks' gestation: contribution of maternal factors and growth velocity between 32 and 36 weeks

OBJECTIVE

To assess the additive value of fetal growth velocity between 32 and 36 weeks' gestation to the performance of ultrasonographic estimated fetal weight (EFW) at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation for prediction of delivery of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate and adverse perinatal outcome.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 14 497 singleton pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 30 + 0 to 34 + 6 and at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine whether addition of growth velocity, defined as the difference in EFW Z-score or abdominal circumference (AC) Z-score between the early and late third-trimester scans divided by the time interval between the scans, improved the performance of EFW Z-score at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks in the prediction of, first, delivery of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles within 2 weeks and at any stage after assessment and, second, a composite of adverse perinatal outcome, defined as stillbirth, neonatal death or admission to the neonatal unit for ≥ 48 h.

RESULTS

Multivariable logistic regression analysis demonstrated that significant contributors to the prediction of a SGA neonate were EFW Z-score at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation, fetal growth velocity, by either AC Z-score or EFW Z-score, and maternal risk factors. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) and detection rate (DR), at a 10% screen-positive rate, for prediction of a SGA neonate < 10^th percentile born within 2 weeks after assessment achieved by EFW Z-score at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks (AUC, 0.938 (95% CI, 0.928-0.947); DR, 80.7% (95% CI, 77.6-83.9%)) were not significantly improved by addition of EFW growth velocity and maternal risk factors (AUC, 0.941 (95% CI, 0.932-0.950); P = 0.061; DR, 82.5% (95% CI, 79.4-85.3%)). Similar results were obtained when growth velocity was defined by AC rather than EFW. Similarly, there was no significant improvement in the AUC and DR, at a 10% screen-positive rate, for prediction of a SGA neonate < 10^th percentile born at any stage after assessment or a SGA neonate < 3^rd percentile born within 2 weeks or at any stage after assessment, achieved by EFW Z-score at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks by addition of maternal factors and either EFW growth velocity or AC growth velocity. Multivariable logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the only significant contributor to adverse perinatal outcome was maternal risk factors. Multivariable logistic regression analysis in the group with EFW < 10^th percentile demonstrated that significant contribution to prediction of delivery of a neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles and adverse perinatal outcome was provided by EFW Z-score at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks, but not by AC growth velocity < 1^st decile.

CONCLUSION

The predictive performance of EFW at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation for delivery of a SGA neonate and adverse perinatal outcome is not improved by addition of estimated growth velocity between 32 and 36 weeks' gestation. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fetal Medicine Foundation reference ranges for umbilical artery and middle cerebral artery pulsatility index and cerebroplacental ratio

OBJECTIVES

To develop gestational age-based reference ranges for the pulsatility index in the umbilical artery (UA-PI) and fetal middle cerebral artery (MCA-PI) and the cerebroplacental ratio (MCA-PI/UA-PI), and to examine the maternal characteristics and medical history that affect these measurements.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study of 72 387 pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 20 + 0 to 22 + 6 weeks' gestation (n = 3712), 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks (n = 29 035), 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks (n = 37 252) or 41 + 0 to 41 + 6 weeks (n = 2388). For the purpose of this study, we included data for only one of the second- or third-trimester visits. The inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancy, dating by fetal crown-rump length at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation, live birth of a morphologically normal neonate and ultrasonographic measurements by sonographers who had received the Fetal Medicine Foundation Certificate of Competence in Doppler ultrasound. Since the objectives of the study were to establish reference ranges, rather than normal ranges, and to examine factors from maternal characteristics and medical history that affect these measurements, we included all pregnancies having routine ultrasound examinations, irrespective of whether the mother had a pre-existing medical condition, such as diabetes mellitus, or a pregnancy complication, such as pre-eclampsia or suspected fetal growth restriction. Median and SD models were fitted between UA-PI, MCA-PI and CPR and gestational age. Assessment of goodness of fit of the models was by inspection of quantile-to-quantile (Q-Q) plots of Z-scores calculated using the mean and SD models. The distributions of MCA-PI, UA-PI and CPR Z-scores were examined in relation to maternal characteristics and medical history.

RESULTS

The relationship between the median and gestational age was linear for UA-PI and cubic for MCA-PI and CPR and the SD was log quadratic for all three. MCA-PI and CPR increased with gestational age from 20 weeks' gestation to reach a peak at around 32 and 34 weeks, respectively, and decreased thereafter, whereas UA-PI decreased linearly with gestational age from 20 to 42 weeks. Compared to the general population, significant deviations in multiples of the median values of UA-PI, MCA-PI and CPR were observed in subgroups of maternal age, body mass index, racial origin, method of conception and parity.

CONCLUSION

This study established new reference ranges for UA-PI, MCA-PI and CPR, according to gestational age, and reports maternal characteristics and medical history that affect these measurements. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of adverse perinatal outcome by cerebroplacental ratio in women undergoing induction of labor

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the performance of screening for adverse perinatal outcome by the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) measured within 24 h prior to induction of labor.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of 1902 singleton pregnancies undergoing induction of labor at ≥ 37 weeks' gestation. Doppler ultrasound was used to measure the pulsatility index (PI) in the umbilical artery (UA) and fetal middle cerebral artery (MCA) within 24 h before induction of labor. The measured UA-PI and MCA-PI and their ratio were converted to multiples of the median after adjustment for gestational age. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine whether CPR improved the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome provided by maternal characteristics, medical history and obstetric factors. The detection rate (DR) and false-positive rate (FPR) of screening by CPR were estimated for Cesarean section for presumed fetal distress and adverse neonatal outcome, which included umbilical arterial or venous cord blood pH ≤ 7 and ≤ 7.1, respectively, 5-min Apgar score < 7, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit for > 24 h or hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy.

RESULTS

A combination of maternal and pregnancy characteristics, including age, weight, racial origin, previous obstetric history, pre-eclampsia, gestational age at delivery and amniotic fluid volume, identified 39% of pregnancies requiring Cesarean section for fetal distress at a FPR of 10%; addition of CPR did not improve the performance of screening. In screening for adverse neonatal outcome by a combination of parity and CPR, the DR was 17% at a FPR of 10%.

CONCLUSION

Low CPR, measured within 24 h prior to induction of labor, is associated with increased risk of Cesarean section for fetal distress and adverse neonatal outcome, but the performance of CPR for such surrogate measures of fetal hypoxic morbidity is poor. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates at 35-37 weeks' gestation: contribution of maternal factors and growth velocity between 20 and 36 weeks

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the performance of ultrasonographic estimated fetal weight (EFW) at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation in the prediction of delivery of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate and assess the additive value of, first, maternal risk factors and, second, fetal growth velocity between 20 and 36 weeks' gestation in improving such prediction.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 44 043 singleton pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 19 + 0 to 23 + 6 and at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine whether addition of maternal risk factors and growth velocity, the latter defined as the difference in EFW Z-score or fetal abdominal circumference (AC) Z-score between the third- and second-trimester scans divided by the time interval between the scans, improved the performance of EFW Z-score at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks in the prediction of delivery of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles within 2 weeks and at any stage after assessment.

RESULTS

Screening by EFW Z-score at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation predicted 63.4% (95% CI, 62.0-64.7%) of neonates with birth weight < 10^th percentile and 74.2% (95% CI, 72.2-76.1%) of neonates with birth weight < 3^rd percentile born at any stage after assessment, at a screen-positive rate of 10%. The respective values for SGA neonates born within 2 weeks after assessment were 76.8% (95% CI, 74.4-79.0%) and 81.3% (95% CI, 78.2-84.0%). For a desired 90% detection rate of SGA neonate delivered at any stage after assessment, the necessary screen-positive rate would be 33.7% for SGA < 10^th percentile and 24.4% for SGA < 3^rd percentile. Multivariable logistic regression analysis demonstrated that, in the prediction of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles, there was a significant contribution from EFW Z-score at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation, maternal risk factors and AC growth velocity, but not EFW growth velocity. However, the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve for prediction of delivery of a SGA neonate by screening with maternal risk factors and EFW Z-score was not improved by addition of AC growth velocity.

CONCLUSION

Screening for SGA neonates by EFW at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation and use of the 10^th percentile as the cut-off predicts 63% of affected neonates. Prediction of 90% of SGA neonates necessitates classification of about 35% of the population as being screen positive. The predictive performance of EFW is not improved by addition of estimated growth velocity between the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Routine first-trimester screening for fetal trisomies in twin pregnancy: cell-free DNA test contingent on results from combined test

OBJECTIVE

To report on the routine clinical implementation of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis of maternal blood for trisomies 21, 18 and 13, contingent on the results of the first-trimester combined test in twin pregnancy.

METHODS

Screening for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 was carried out in 959 twin pregnancies by assessment of a combination of maternal age, fetal nuchal translucency thickness, and serum free β-human chorionic gonadotropin and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A at 11-13 weeks' gestation in two UK NHS hospitals. Women in the high-risk group (risk ≥ 1 in 100) were offered the option of invasive testing, cfDNA testing or no further testing, and those in the intermediate-risk group (risk 1 in 101 to 1 in 2500 in the first phase of the study and 1 in 101 to 1 in 500 in the second phase) were offered cfDNA or no further testing. The trisomic status of the pregnancies was determined by prenatal or postnatal karyotyping or examination of the neonates.

RESULTS

In 42 (4.4%) of the 959 pregnancies, there was termination, miscarriage or stillbirth with no known karyotype or there was loss to follow-up. The 917 pregnancies with known trisomic status of both twins included six that were discordant for trisomy 21, four that were discordant for trisomy 18 and 907 with no trisomy 21, 18 or 13. Following combined screening, 47 (5.1%), 203 (22.1%) and 667 (72.7%) of the pregnancies were classified as high risk, intermediate risk and low risk, respectively. The high-risk group included five (83.3%) cases of trisomy 21 and three (75.0%) of trisomy 18. The cfDNA test was carried out in 224 pregnancies and results were provided in 214 (95.5%); this group included six pregnancies with trisomy 21, three with trisomy 18 and 206 with no trisomy 21, 18 or 13. The cfDNA test classified correctly as screen positive all six cases of trisomy 21 and two of the three with trisomy 18, and as screen negative for each of the trisomies all 206 unaffected pregnancies. Contingent screening led to prenatal detection of all cases of trisomy 21 and three of four with trisomy 18.

CONCLUSION

This study has demonstrated the feasibility of introducing cfDNA testing, contingent on the results of the first-trimester combined test for major trisomies, in a routine population of twin pregnancies. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impaired placental perfusion and major fetal cardiac defects

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relationship between fetal congenital heart defects (CHD) and placental perfusion assessed by uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), in relation to development of pre-eclampsia (PE).

METHODS

This was a prospective screening study of singleton pregnancies at 19-24 weeks' gestation. Transvaginal ultrasound was used to measure UtA-PI and the values were converted into multiples of the normal median (MoM). Median MoM values in pregnancies with a fetus with isolated major CHD were compared to those without CHD, in relation to development of PE.

RESULTS

The 91 407 singleton pregnancies fulfilling the entry criteria included 206 (0.23%) with isolated major fetal CHD and 91 201 without CHD. The prevalence of PE was 4.4% in pregnancies with fetal CHD and 2.7% in those without CHD (relative risk (RR), 1.6 (95% CI, 0.84-3.04); P = 0.150); the respective values for preterm PE with delivery at < 37 weeks' gestation were 2.4% and 0.7% (RR, 3.4 (95% CI, 1.42-8.09); P = 0.006). In the total population, median UtA-PI MoM was significantly higher in those that developed PE compared to those without PE (1.22 (interquartile range (IQR), 0.94-1.57) vs 1.00 (IQR, 0.84-1.19); P < 0.0001) and, in the PE group, the median UtA-PI MoM was inversely related to gestational age at delivery (r = -0.458; P < 0.0001). The same pattern of inverse relationship between UtA-PI MoM and gestational age at delivery with PE was observed in pregnancies with and those without CHD, but, in the CHD group, compared to those without CHD, UtA-PI was significantly higher both in pregnancies with and in those without PE.

CONCLUSIONS

In pregnancies both with and without fetal CHD that develop PE, impedance to flow in the UtAs is increased and this increase is particularly marked in those with preterm PE. The prevalence of preterm PE is more than three times higher in pregnancies with than those without fetal major CHD, and the prevalence of major CHD in pregnancies with preterm PE is also more than three times higher than in those without PE. However, > 97% of pregnancies with fetal CHD do not develop preterm PE and > 99% of pregnancies with preterm PE are not associated with fetal CHD. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Screening for pre-eclampsia by maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the performance of screening for early, preterm and term pre-eclampsia (PE) at 11-13 weeks' gestation by maternal factors and combinations of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery (UtA) pulsatility index (PI), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A).

METHODS

The data for this study were derived from three previously reported prospective non-intervention screening studies at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation in a combined total of 61 174 singleton pregnancies, including 1770 (2.9%) that developed PE. Bayes' theorem was used to combine the prior distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE, obtained from maternal characteristics, with various combinations of biomarker multiples of the median (MoM) values to derive patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 37 weeks' gestation. The performance of such screening was estimated.

RESULTS

In pregnancies that developed PE, compared to those without PE, the MoM values of UtA-PI and MAP were increased and those of PAPP-A and PlGF were decreased, and the deviation from normal was greater for early than late PE for all four biomarkers. Combined screening by maternal factors, UtA-PI, MAP and PlGF predicted 90% of early PE, 75% of preterm PE and 41% of term PE, at a screen-positive rate of 10%; inclusion of PAPP-A did not improve the performance of screening. The performance of screening depended on the racial origin of the women; on screening by a combination of maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF and using a risk cut-off of 1 in 100 for PE at < 37 weeks in Caucasian women, the screen-positive rate was 10% and detection rates for early, preterm and term PE were 88%, 69% and 40%, respectively. With the same method of screening and risk cut-off in women of Afro-Caribbean racial origin, the screen-positive rate was 34% and detection rates for early, preterm and term PE were 100%, 92% and 75%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Screening by maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation can identify a high proportion of pregnancies that develop early and preterm PE. © 2018 Crown copyright. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology © 2018 ISUOG.

Prediction and prevention of small-for-gestational-age neonates: evidence from SPREE and ASPRE

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effect of first-trimester screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) on the prediction of delivering a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate and the effect of prophylactic use of aspirin on the prevention of SGA.

METHODS

The data for this study were derived from two multicenter studies. In SPREE, we investigated the performance of screening for PE by a combination of maternal characteristics and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation. In ASPRE, women with a singleton pregnancy identified by combined screening as being at high risk for preterm PE (> 1 in 100) participated in a trial of aspirin (150 mg/day from 11-14 until 36 weeks' gestation) compared to placebo. In this study, we used the data from the ASPRE trial to estimate the effect of aspirin on the incidence of SGA with birth weight < 10^th , < 5^th and < 3^rd percentile for gestational age. We also used the data from SPREE to estimate the proportion of SGA in the pregnancies with a risk for preterm PE of > 1 in 100.

RESULTS

In SPREE, screening for preterm PE by a combination of maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index and serum placental growth factor identified a high-risk group that contained about 46% of SGA neonates < 10^th percentile born at < 37 weeks' gestation (preterm) and 56% of those born at < 32 weeks (early); the overall screen-positive rate was 12.2% (2014 of 16 451 pregnancies). In the ASPRE trial, use of aspirin reduced the overall incidence of SGA < 10^th percentile by about 40% in babies born at < 37 weeks' gestation and by about 70% in babies born at < 32 weeks; in babies born at ≥ 37 weeks, aspirin did not have a significant effect on incidence of SGA. The aspirin-related decrease in incidence of SGA was mainly due to its incidence decreasing in pregnancies with PE, for which the decrease was about 70% in babies born at < 37 weeks' gestation and about 90% in babies born at < 32 weeks. On the basis of these results, it was estimated that first-trimester screening for preterm PE and use of aspirin in the high-risk group would potentially reduce the incidence of preterm and early SGA by about 20% and 40%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

First-trimester screening for PE by the combined test identifies a high proportion of cases of preterm SGA that can be prevented by the prophylactic use of aspirin. © 2018 Crown copyright. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology © 2018 ISUOG.

Ultrasonographic estimation of fetal weight: development of new model and assessment of performance of previous models

OBJECTIVES

To develop a new formula for ultrasonographic estimation of fetal weight and evaluate the accuracy of this and all previous formulae in the prediction of birth weight.

METHODS

The study population consisted of 5163 singleton pregnancies with fetal biometry at 22-43 weeks' gestation and live birth of a phenotypically normal neonate within 2 days of the ultrasound examination. Multivariable fractional polynomial analysis was used to determine the combination of variables that provided the best-fitting models for estimated fetal weight (EFW). A systematic review was also carried out of articles reporting formulae for EFW and comparing EFW to actual birth weight. The accuracy of each model for EFW was assessed by comparing mean percentage error, absolute mean error (AE), proportion of pregnancies with AE ≤ 10% and Euclidean distance.

RESULTS

The most accurate models, with the lowest Euclidean distance and highest proportion of AE ≤ 10%, were provided by the formulae incorporating ≥ 3 rather than < 3 biometrical measurements. The systematic review identified 45 studies describing a total of 70 models for EFW by various combinations of measurements of fetal head circumference (HC), biparietal diameter, femur length (FL) and abdominal circumference (AC). The most accurate model with the lowest Euclidean distance and highest proportion of AE ≤ 10% was provided by the formula of Hadlock et al., published in 1985, which incorporated measurements of HC, AC and FL; there was a highly significant linear association between EFW and birth weight (r = 0.959; P < 0.0001), and EFW was within 10% of birth weight in 80% of cases. The performance of the best model developed in this study, utilizing HC, AC and FL, was very similar to that of Hadlock et al. CONCLUSION: Despite many efforts to develop new models for EFW, the one reported in 1985 by Hadlock et al., from measurements of HC, AC and FL, provides the most accurate prediction of birth weight and can be used for assessment of all babies, including those suspected to be either small or large. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fetal Medicine Foundation fetal and neonatal population weight charts

OBJECTIVE

To develop fetal and neonatal population weight charts. The rationale was that, while reference ranges of estimated fetal weight (EFW) are representative of the whole population, the traditional approach of deriving birth-weight (BW) charts is misleading, because a large proportion of babies born preterm arise from pathological pregnancy. We propose that the reference population for BW charts, as in the case of EFW charts, should comprise all babies at a given gestational age, including those still in utero.

METHODS

Two sources of data were used for this study. For both, the inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancy, dating by fetal crown-rump length at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation, availability of ultrasonographic measurements of fetal head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL) and live birth of phenotypically normal neonate. Dataset 1 comprised a sample of 5163 paired measurements of EFW and BW; ultrasound examinations were carried out at 22-43 weeks' gestation and birth occurred within 2 days of the ultrasound examination. EFW was derived from the HC, AC and FL measurements using the formula reported by Hadlock et al. in 1985. Dataset 2 comprised a sample of 95 579 pregnancies with EFW obtained by routine ultrasonographic fetal biometry at 20 + 0 to 23 + 6 weeks' gestation (n = 45 034), 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks (n = 19 224) or 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks (n = 31 321); for the purpose of this study we included data for only one of the three visits per pregnancy. In the development of reference ranges of EFW and BW according to gestational age, the following assumptions were made: first, that EFW and BW have a common median, dependent on gestational age; and second, that deviations from the median occur in both EFW and BW and these deviations are correlated with different levels of spread for EFW and BW, dependent on gestational age. We adopted a Bayesian approach to inference, combining information from the two datasets using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling. The fitted model assumed that the mean log transformed measurements of EFW and BW are related to gestational age according to a cubic equation and that deviations about the mean follow a bivariate Gaussian distribution.

RESULTS

In the case of EFW in Dataset 2, there was a good distribution of values < 3^rd , < 5^th , < 10^th , > 90^th , > 95^th and > 97^th percentiles of the reference range of EFW according to gestational age throughout the gestational age range of 20 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks. In the case of BW, there was a good distribution of values only for the cases delivered > 39 weeks' gestation. For preterm births, particularly at 27-36 weeks, BW was below the 3^rd , 5^th and 10^th percentiles in a very high proportion of cases, particularly in cases of iatrogenic birth. The incidence of small-for-gestational-age fetuses and neonates in the respective EFW and BW charts was higher in women of black than those of white racial origin.

CONCLUSION

We established a BW chart for all babies at a given gestational age, including those still in utero, thereby overcoming the problem of underestimation of growth restriction in preterm birth. BW and EFW charts have a common median but differ in the levels of spread from the median. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

ASPRE trial: incidence of preterm pre-eclampsia in patients fulfilling ACOG and NICE criteria according to risk by FMF algorithm

OBJECTIVE

To report the incidence of preterm pre-eclampsia (PE) in women who are screen positive according to the criteria of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), and compare the incidence with that in those who are screen positive or screen negative by The Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) algorithm.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of data from the ASPRE study. The study population consisted of women with singleton pregnancy who underwent prospective screening for preterm PE by means of the FMF algorithm, which combines maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation. The incidence of preterm PE in women fulfilling the NICE and ACOG criteria was estimated; in these patients the incidence of preterm PE was then calculated in those who were screen negative relative to those who were screen positive by the FMF algorithm.

RESULTS

A total of 34 573 women with singleton pregnancy delivering at ≥ 24 weeks' gestation underwent prospective screening for preterm PE, of which 239 (0.7%) cases developed preterm PE. At least one of the ACOG criteria was fulfilled in 22 287 (64.5%) pregnancies and the incidence of preterm PE was 0.97% (95% CI, 0.85-1.11%); in the subgroup that was screen positive by the FMF algorithm the incidence of preterm PE was 4.80% (95% CI, 4.14-5.55%), and in those that were screen negative it was 0.25% (95% CI, 0.18-0.33%), with a relative incidence in FMF screen negative to FMF screen positive of 0.051 (95% CI, 0.037-0.071). In 1392 (4.0%) pregnancies, at least one of the NICE high-risk criteria was fulfilled, and in this group the incidence of preterm PE was 5.17% (95% CI, 4.13-6.46%); in the subgroups of screen positive and screen negative by the FMF algorithm, the incidence of preterm PE was 8.71% (95% CI, 6.93-10.89%) and 0.65% (95% CI, 0.25-1.67%), respectively, and the relative incidence was 0.075 (95% CI, 0.028-0.205). In 2360 (6.8%) pregnancies fulfilling at least two of the NICE moderate-risk criteria, the incidence of preterm PE was 1.74% (95% CI, 1.28-2.35%); in the subgroups of screen positive and screen negative by the FMF algorithm the incidence was 4.91% (95% CI, 3.54-6.79%) and 0.42% (95% CI, 0.20-0.86%), respectively, and the relative incidence was 0.085 (95% CI, 0.038-0.192).

CONCLUSION

In women who are screen positive for preterm PE by the ACOG or NICE criteria but screen negative by the FMF algorithm, the risk of preterm PE is reduced to within or below background levels. The results provide further evidence to support the personalized risk-based screening method that combines maternal factors and biomarkers. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fetal major cardiac defects and placental dysfunction at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relationship between fetal major cardiac defects and markers of placental perfusion and function.

METHODS

This was a prospective screening study in singleton pregnancies at 11-13 weeks' gestation. Uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and placental growth factor (PlGF) were measured and the values were converted into multiples of the normal median (MoM). Median MoM values in fetuses with isolated major cardiac defects were compared with those in fetuses without major defects.

RESULTS

The 50 094 singleton pregnancies fulfilling the entry criteria included 49 898 pregnancies with normal cardiac anatomy and 196 (0.39%) with major congenital cardiac defects: 73 (37.2%) with conotruncal defects, 63 (32.1%) with left ventricular outflow tract defects and 60 (30.6%) with valvular defects. In the group with cardiac defects, compared with controls, there was lower median PAPP-A MoM (0.81 vs 1.00, P < 0.0001) and PlGF MoM (0.78 vs 1.00, P < 0.0001) but no significant difference in UtA-PI MoM (1.01 vs 1.00, P = 0.162).

CONCLUSION

In pregnancies with isolated fetal major cardiac defects, there is evidence of placental dysfunction in the absence of impaired placental perfusion. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.