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Hoegh-Guldberg O, Jacob D, Taylor M, Guillén Bolaños T, Bindi M, Brown S, Camilloni IA, Diedhiou A, Djalante R, Ebi K, Engelbrecht F, Guiot J, Hijioka Y, Mehrotra S, Hope CW, Payne AJ, Pörtner HO, Seneviratne SI, Thomas A, Warren R, Zhou G. The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C. Science 2019. [PMID: 31604209 DOI: 10.1016/b978-1-78548-051-5.50007-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have led to a global mean surface temperature 1.0°C higher than during the pre-industrial period. We expand on the recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C and review the additional risks associated with higher levels of warming, each having major implications for multiple geographies, climates, and ecosystems. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C would be required to maintain substantial proportions of ecosystems and would have clear benefits for human health and economies. These conclusions are relevant for people everywhere, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the escalation of climate-related risks may prevent the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- O Hoegh-Guldberg
- Global Change Institute, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia.
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - D Jacob
- Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany
| | - M Taylor
- Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica
| | - T Guillén Bolaños
- Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany
| | - M Bindi
- Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, 50144 Firenze, Italy
| | - S Brown
- Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Southampton, Boldrewood Innovation Campus, Southampton SO16 7QF, UK
- Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Bournemouth University, Fern Barrow, Poole, Dorset BH12 5BB, UK
| | - I A Camilloni
- Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (UBA-CONICET), UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, and Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (FCEN), University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - A Diedhiou
- Université Grenoble Alpes, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD), CNRS, Grenoble INP, IGE, F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | - R Djalante
- United Nations University-Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability (UNU-IAS), Tokyo, Japan
- Halu Oleo University, Kendari, South East Sulawesi, Indonesia
| | - K Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - F Engelbrecht
- Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2193, South Africa
| | - J Guiot
- Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, INRA, Collège de France, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Y Hijioka
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | | | - C W Hope
- Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - H-O Pörtner
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - S I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - A Thomas
- Climate Analytics, 10961 Berlin, Germany
- Environmental and Life Sciences, University of the Bahamas, Nassau 76905, Bahamas
| | - R Warren
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
| | - G Zhou
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
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Hoegh-Guldberg O, Jacob D, Taylor M, Guillén Bolaños T, Bindi M, Brown S, Camilloni IA, Diedhiou A, Djalante R, Ebi K, Engelbrecht F, Guiot J, Hijioka Y, Mehrotra S, Hope CW, Payne AJ, Pörtner HO, Seneviratne SI, Thomas A, Warren R, Zhou G. The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C. Science 2019; 365:365/6459/eaaw6974. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw6974] [Citation(s) in RCA: 271] [Impact Index Per Article: 54.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2019] [Accepted: 08/01/2019] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have led to a global mean surface temperature 1.0°C higher than during the pre-industrial period. We expand on the recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C and review the additional risks associated with higher levels of warming, each having major implications for multiple geographies, climates, and ecosystems. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C would be required to maintain substantial proportions of ecosystems and would have clear benefits for human health and economies. These conclusions are relevant for people everywhere, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the escalation of climate-related risks may prevent the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
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